NCAAB Posts YTD: 7-3
Maybe the numbers indicate that Gonzaga is thirteen points better than USF, even on the road at War Memorial, but those numbers are exactly that to me....just numbers. There is no doubt in my mind where the value lies in this game and it is with the large home dog. An impressive string of DD victories has brought the Bulldogs to a dangerous level in terms of value, IMO. If you are one that believes these kind of streaks last forever, go ahead and back Gonzo tonight. If you are like me, even though I believe in "the trend is your friend" theory as much as the next guy, when there are sufficient reasons to buck a trend, I have no problem doing so. Tonight I believe there is plenty of evidence to support my feeling that the Dons will give the Bulldogs a scare tonight.
Gonzaga is about to embark on the toughest road stretch they have/will take this year. First, tonight they venture into an always tough venue in War Memorial, then on to Moraga, CA to take on the St. Mary's Gaels. Despite their unblemished 5-0 WCC road record thus far, I am not impressed with the competition faced. The likes of Pepperdine, Loyola-Mary, Portland, San Diego, and Santa Clara are not as balanced or as capable of an opponent as San Francisco or St. Mary's. Beating up on teams that are middle of the pack to bottom feeders in the conference, sets Gonzo up for being overvalued tonight and probably again on Saturday. The one true test they have had since conference play began was when the Gaels came into The Kennel and played them tough in a game where the final score was not indicitive of how close it was throughout. Even though the current standings might indicate otherwise, I truly believe that St. Mary's is the #2 team in the WCC, with USF following very closely behind at #3. After all, historically, road-life in this conference is no picnic, even as dominant as Gonzaga has been over the years. Conceivably, Gonzaga could lose one out of the next two, and who knows, maybe even both. Even if they emerge from this Thursday-Saturday set unscathed, I am pretty confident that fading them ATS in both will put some extra cash in my pocket.
On to tonight: Putting aside the last two games (away and home, back-to-back with St. Mary's), this USF Dons squad looks to be vastly improved. Phil Matthew's has been working with lots of talent that has transferred into the program. As we all know, these types of teams take time to mesh together and perform to capabilities. They finally seem to be gelling and playing as a team. They had won four straight prior to running into the Gaels, using a tough defense and improving offense to stage their turn-around. They have a history of over-achieving at home and underachieving on the road, making the juicy points even more attractive here. Offense is always better when they are in the friendly confines of War Memorial, and it seems they have been gelling on that side of the ball since conference play began. Rebounding and allowing opponents to get to the FT line have been the Dons nemesis and could likely be pose a problem against this fundamentally sound Gonzaga team tonight. However, I am looking for those statistics to level out a bit tonight. Reason being that I believe rebounding to be more about focus, determination, and will, less about height advantages and mismatches. I fully expect a very focused effort tonight out of the Dons and I am sure their coaches have been drilling into their heads the importance of not giving Gonzaga second-chances. As far as the FT discrepency, I am just looking for more of a return to normalcy and maybe even some good 'ol "homer" officiating to help the cause. Throw in a few other tidbits: about 80% of the public (f/ well-known consensus site) is on Gonzo tonight as a large road chalk in a nationally televised game. However, I actually saw the line tick down to 12.5 earlier in the day at Pinny. Add these nice indicators of ATS success into my own opinion/premonition on this game and this one becomes a no-brainer play for me. BTW, I am also placing 1/6 of my total wager on the USF Dons ML at +830. I have to take a shot with that kind of payback in a building where the Dons don't lose too often. Regardless, I will be happy with the cover tonight and will be hoping to put some of my winnings tonight toward St. Mary's + whatever and ML as soon as the lines come out on Friday for the Bulldogs/Gaels Valentine's Day matchup. While I am thinking about it, if I am already looking forward to that game, I don't think it is inconceivable that Gonzaga may be doing the same here, just another reason to like this spot for the Dons tonight.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Maybe the numbers indicate that Gonzaga is thirteen points better than USF, even on the road at War Memorial, but those numbers are exactly that to me....just numbers. There is no doubt in my mind where the value lies in this game and it is with the large home dog. An impressive string of DD victories has brought the Bulldogs to a dangerous level in terms of value, IMO. If you are one that believes these kind of streaks last forever, go ahead and back Gonzo tonight. If you are like me, even though I believe in "the trend is your friend" theory as much as the next guy, when there are sufficient reasons to buck a trend, I have no problem doing so. Tonight I believe there is plenty of evidence to support my feeling that the Dons will give the Bulldogs a scare tonight.
Gonzaga is about to embark on the toughest road stretch they have/will take this year. First, tonight they venture into an always tough venue in War Memorial, then on to Moraga, CA to take on the St. Mary's Gaels. Despite their unblemished 5-0 WCC road record thus far, I am not impressed with the competition faced. The likes of Pepperdine, Loyola-Mary, Portland, San Diego, and Santa Clara are not as balanced or as capable of an opponent as San Francisco or St. Mary's. Beating up on teams that are middle of the pack to bottom feeders in the conference, sets Gonzo up for being overvalued tonight and probably again on Saturday. The one true test they have had since conference play began was when the Gaels came into The Kennel and played them tough in a game where the final score was not indicitive of how close it was throughout. Even though the current standings might indicate otherwise, I truly believe that St. Mary's is the #2 team in the WCC, with USF following very closely behind at #3. After all, historically, road-life in this conference is no picnic, even as dominant as Gonzaga has been over the years. Conceivably, Gonzaga could lose one out of the next two, and who knows, maybe even both. Even if they emerge from this Thursday-Saturday set unscathed, I am pretty confident that fading them ATS in both will put some extra cash in my pocket.
On to tonight: Putting aside the last two games (away and home, back-to-back with St. Mary's), this USF Dons squad looks to be vastly improved. Phil Matthew's has been working with lots of talent that has transferred into the program. As we all know, these types of teams take time to mesh together and perform to capabilities. They finally seem to be gelling and playing as a team. They had won four straight prior to running into the Gaels, using a tough defense and improving offense to stage their turn-around. They have a history of over-achieving at home and underachieving on the road, making the juicy points even more attractive here. Offense is always better when they are in the friendly confines of War Memorial, and it seems they have been gelling on that side of the ball since conference play began. Rebounding and allowing opponents to get to the FT line have been the Dons nemesis and could likely be pose a problem against this fundamentally sound Gonzaga team tonight. However, I am looking for those statistics to level out a bit tonight. Reason being that I believe rebounding to be more about focus, determination, and will, less about height advantages and mismatches. I fully expect a very focused effort tonight out of the Dons and I am sure their coaches have been drilling into their heads the importance of not giving Gonzaga second-chances. As far as the FT discrepency, I am just looking for more of a return to normalcy and maybe even some good 'ol "homer" officiating to help the cause. Throw in a few other tidbits: about 80% of the public (f/ well-known consensus site) is on Gonzo tonight as a large road chalk in a nationally televised game. However, I actually saw the line tick down to 12.5 earlier in the day at Pinny. Add these nice indicators of ATS success into my own opinion/premonition on this game and this one becomes a no-brainer play for me. BTW, I am also placing 1/6 of my total wager on the USF Dons ML at +830. I have to take a shot with that kind of payback in a building where the Dons don't lose too often. Regardless, I will be happy with the cover tonight and will be hoping to put some of my winnings tonight toward St. Mary's + whatever and ML as soon as the lines come out on Friday for the Bulldogs/Gaels Valentine's Day matchup. While I am thinking about it, if I am already looking forward to that game, I don't think it is inconceivable that Gonzaga may be doing the same here, just another reason to like this spot for the Dons tonight.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
