WVU (-3.5) over Cuse
I heard the funniest thing last night watching the games. The comentator said this is a match up of future NFL QB's. Maybe CFL QB's but I do not see NFL starter in either of these two. Smith has 4,004 yards and an 40 TDs this season. I just think these stats are over blown because a lot of the scores come from short passes that Bailey and Austin making big plays. Then you have Ryan Nassib, with 3,619 passing yards. I think the QB match up looks pretty even. These two teams also look pretty even offensively on paper. Yards per game WVU - 518, Cuse - 473. Passing yards per game WVU -340, Cuse - 301. Rushing per game WVU -177, Cuse - 171.Third down conversion WVU - 46.2%, Cuse 49%. The big difference is points per game WVU - 41, Cuse 29. This is where I think the difference is in this game. Looking at that both teams can move the ball but WVU is better turning it into points and at the end of the day that is most important. Defensively, These teams give up about 140 each per game rushing. WVU gives up about a hundred more yards through the air than Cuse. WVU also gives up about ten more points per game than Cuse. I attribute that to the better offenses WVU faces in the Big 12. Its tough not to give up points to Baylor, Okie St, Kansas St and Oklahoma. It is easier to stop UConn, Temple, Stony Brook south florida and Pitt. Looking over the Cuse season you can see they have given up big points to teams but have also scored points in games making them a team very similar to WVU. I think WVU has an advantage considering this is an outside game in the cold and Cuse is an indoor team. Location wise Cuse has the advatage but WVU travels well and I think they will have a lot of butts in seats for this contest. Aside from Texas Tech WVU lost all games to ranked teams. They have played the tougher teams and I think they have the ability to end this season on a high note. Holgerson is a very good game planner and he has been given this extra time and I believe it will help WVU and offensively they have more weapons and talent. I loved the look WVU used towards the end of the season with Austin in the back field. All in all I like what WVU brings to the table on offense more than what Cuse has to defend them. I think WVU will give up some points but I think they will play better defense than expected and the seniors on WVU end up with a big win.
Org St (-2) over Texas
Oregon State intercepted 19 passes this year, tied for sixth-most in the country, and the Beavers' 30 forced turnovers are tied for 12th. Seven of the Longhorns' 15 turnovers this season came in their last two games, including five interceptions. David Ash is getting the go, McCoy was suspended but Ash was named starter before that happened. Ash has 17 TD's on the season and seven INT. He is completing 69% of his passes. Beavers rank 15th nationally with 316.5 passing yards per game. Vaz has been named the starter for this game. Vaz has shown a better ability to avoid the turn over. He has throw only one INT on the year and has 11 TD passes. He also completes about 59% of his passes. Texas under achieved this season and more than likely it will lead to Mack Brown be let go but that could motivate his guys. I dont think a lot of folks know how good Org st is defensively. They have NFL talent at CB and safety. They come in with the 30th ranked defense in the NCAA. I think Texas is a good team but I dont think they really care as much about this game. Org st will look at this game as a statement to the country that has not had the oppertunity to see them quietly climb to 19 in the rankings. Both defenses will fly around but I think the beavers have more diverse play calling options on offense. Mack Brown is going to use the wildcat in the redzone and when in trouble ash looks for Shipley. The beavers will have to game plan for that and then counter Texas speed up front with some screens. Let the four linemen into Vaz and beat them on the flanker screen. The beavers like those plays and it should be a big help keeping Texas tired and off of the QB.
TCU (-3) over Mich St
What can I say about this game. Both teams bring defense to the table. Still I like TCU on offense more so than Mich st. If you dont know I'll tell you Mich state is going to run and run and run and run the ball. TCU has to stop that (and they can with the 11th rank rush defense) and then the QB will have to beat them and thats where I see TCU taking the advantage. The mich st qb only has 13 TDs but 9 INT, he is not going to light up the skies. The Spartans' five rushing touchdowns allowed were tied for the second-fewest in the country. But I like Boykin to use misdirection and be a big advantage for TCU. Mich st has lost to this type of QB four times this year in games against Ohio St, Mich, Neb, and N'Westerm. This game looks like TCU stopping the mich st running game and the Mich st QB struggling to keep the chains moving. TCU having a tough day moving the ball but still getting it done enough to get points on the board and then take over towards the end of the game. Letting the TCU defense play aggressive and cause some pressure or turn overs.
I did not do a lot of research on this game but since it is on......
Navy (+14) over Ariz st
Double digit dog that can rush. I'll take 14 in the thought they use the triple option to get some points on the board.
Cheers
Irish