2:20 PM MLB [952] CHI CUBS -1.5 -145 ( J LOCKE -L / J ARRIETA -R )
1:05 PM MLB [965] CHI WHITE SOX -148 ( J QUINTANA -L / I NOVA -R )
4:10 PM MLB [970] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +105 ( E SANTANA -R / C KLUBER -R )
1 unit bet pays 4.80 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later...
Folks say that Jake Arrieta is due for a bad one because of the fact of regression toward the mean..
But this is misuising the concept of regression toward the mean to commit a mistake known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
regression is a statistical fact of bias toward the average over time. It cannot be used to predict whether this or that single event will be closer or not toward the mean - just that a collection of all these independent events over time will average out a certain way, some will be more, some less, but will tend toward the average in the long run....Regression toward the mean is not a causal phenomenon
Actually, Jake's less than stellar effort (by his standards of the last two seasons) in his last start already has contributed toward his regression. I think that human nature suggests his start today will be a "bounce back" effort above his mean (despite his day/night splits).... Yes, He will most probably regress over the course of this season, but looking at his base rate these last few seasons (2.15 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP since joining the Cubs in 2013 -- including a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this year), his regression might not be all that much...
MLB parlays: 4-28, + 7.51 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast:
1:05 PM MLB [965] CHI WHITE SOX -148 ( J QUINTANA -L / I NOVA -R )
4:10 PM MLB [970] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +105 ( E SANTANA -R / C KLUBER -R )
1 unit bet pays 4.80 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later...
Folks say that Jake Arrieta is due for a bad one because of the fact of regression toward the mean..
But this is misuising the concept of regression toward the mean to commit a mistake known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
regression is a statistical fact of bias toward the average over time. It cannot be used to predict whether this or that single event will be closer or not toward the mean - just that a collection of all these independent events over time will average out a certain way, some will be more, some less, but will tend toward the average in the long run....Regression toward the mean is not a causal phenomenon
Actually, Jake's less than stellar effort (by his standards of the last two seasons) in his last start already has contributed toward his regression. I think that human nature suggests his start today will be a "bounce back" effort above his mean (despite his day/night splits).... Yes, He will most probably regress over the course of this season, but looking at his base rate these last few seasons (2.15 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP since joining the Cubs in 2013 -- including a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this year), his regression might not be all that much...
MLB parlays: 4-28, + 7.51 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast: