overall......14-8 (+10.7 units)
2 unit........ 5-1 (+8.3 units)
1 unit........ 9-7 (+2.4 units)
kinda doing a "self-evaluation" to see where im succeeding but also what areas i need to improve on.
*clearly im fortunate enough to be benefitting from successful capping of my strong plays (2 unit and above) which is something ive always prided myself on doing. on an anonymous forum, i have no way of knowing if any of my plays get followed, but i always pride myself on being able to hit the games i play/post as strong plays for 2 reasons - one being that obviously, its a stronger play for me personally in terms of how much im betting, and two, if someone was to randomly pop in my threads and follow, theyre more likely to do so on a 2 unit play or above.
*on the flip side, im really treading water on my 1 unit plays. i need to get that percentage up, and i think i need to limit my plays a little in terms of the quantity of 1 unit plays. sometimes (and i think were all guilty of this at times), we start off the day with a bang and then sometimes we "force" some add-ons. theres times when i definitely feel confident about some add-ons, but i gotta show some discipline and not add anything im not 100% sold on. no reason for me to be cutting into my bottom line figure. as good a season as its been, it should be better and i gotta lay off some add-on games unless i liked em earlier in the week. for those that have followed a late add-on of mine and come up short, my apologies. i need to be a little more selective and not cut into my profits.
for saturday october 4th (will add to the list but probably only gonna have 4 plays or so):
*************************************************
2 units....auburn (pk) over tennessee
2 units....ohio university (+21.5) over northern illinois
*************************************************
1 unit.....bowling green/central michigan over 60.5
1 unit.....bowling green/central michigan over 57.5 (line drop)
(bgsu over is essentially a 2 unit play, just at different lines)
1 unit.....texas a+m (+5) over texas tech
1 unit....kansas state (+6) (+105) (pinnacle) over texas
*************************************************
gotta be honest, was strongly looking at bowling green minus the points, but i am still gonna mull it over. clearly, its a show of respect to hellah. for as much success as ive had in the mac over the years, hellah is on point with enough mac stuff that i gotta consider laying off. will wait to see his write up on the game. but its mind boggling what bowling green does to people at home. once coach brandonn took over as offensive coordinator (and now head coach this year), he has made that offense a juggernaut and the falcons just pound the pi$$ outta teams at home. them averaging 50+ pts a game at home the L2 years is disgusting, lol. i can see a homecoming rout, but will lay off for now. very interested in hellah's write up on this one.
auburn....tigers have underachieved so far this year but those early losses didnt ruin any sec title hopes. auburn still talented enough to win the conference (although their schedule is brutal, with tons of tough road dates). this is a winnable game vs tennessee. true to sec football, this one should be defense galore. everyone is sold on tennessee in this one, but the vols arent exactly lighting up the offensive scoreboard. tigers run the ball well enough to battle the vols every play. auburn seems to have cleared their heads from their 0-2 start with back-to-back throttlings of inferior foes (vandy and w.kentucky). but i think those cupcake games help auburn in the long run. if this is a week one game, auburn probably a 3.5 or 4.5 point chalk. talent-wise, theres value in auburn here. tigers gotta find a way to get this home win.
ohio......huskies are spread-perfect this year, but i think theyve become a little overvalued at this point. i know its only a month into the season, but i dont think theyre 3+ touchdowns better than the bobcats. both teams really like to pound the ball on the ground, so im not seeing a ton of possessions. clock should move quickly. bobcats can be a tricky team. when they establish their tempo and option-attack, they can hang in a lot of games. theyre by no means a come-from-behind team, so i wont be expecting any backdoor cover from them. i just think theyre good enough to make this a lower-scoring, power football game. niu should have no trouble with ou, but i still think bobcats cover with no problem. also worth noting that northern illinois is in a big time "double sandwich" (if i can create a capping term). theyre coming off back-to-back wins over bcs-conference teams (alabama and iowa state) and have 2 elite mac teams on deck (western michigan followed by bowling green). very easy for huskies to get complacent and not be their sharpest
bowling green over 60.5......write-up below
texas a+m (+5)....................write-up below
kansas state (+6) (+105)....write-up below
2 unit........ 5-1 (+8.3 units)
1 unit........ 9-7 (+2.4 units)
kinda doing a "self-evaluation" to see where im succeeding but also what areas i need to improve on.
*clearly im fortunate enough to be benefitting from successful capping of my strong plays (2 unit and above) which is something ive always prided myself on doing. on an anonymous forum, i have no way of knowing if any of my plays get followed, but i always pride myself on being able to hit the games i play/post as strong plays for 2 reasons - one being that obviously, its a stronger play for me personally in terms of how much im betting, and two, if someone was to randomly pop in my threads and follow, theyre more likely to do so on a 2 unit play or above.
*on the flip side, im really treading water on my 1 unit plays. i need to get that percentage up, and i think i need to limit my plays a little in terms of the quantity of 1 unit plays. sometimes (and i think were all guilty of this at times), we start off the day with a bang and then sometimes we "force" some add-ons. theres times when i definitely feel confident about some add-ons, but i gotta show some discipline and not add anything im not 100% sold on. no reason for me to be cutting into my bottom line figure. as good a season as its been, it should be better and i gotta lay off some add-on games unless i liked em earlier in the week. for those that have followed a late add-on of mine and come up short, my apologies. i need to be a little more selective and not cut into my profits.
for saturday october 4th (will add to the list but probably only gonna have 4 plays or so):
*************************************************
2 units....auburn (pk) over tennessee
2 units....ohio university (+21.5) over northern illinois
*************************************************
1 unit.....bowling green/central michigan over 60.5
1 unit.....bowling green/central michigan over 57.5 (line drop)
(bgsu over is essentially a 2 unit play, just at different lines)
1 unit.....texas a+m (+5) over texas tech
1 unit....kansas state (+6) (+105) (pinnacle) over texas
*************************************************
gotta be honest, was strongly looking at bowling green minus the points, but i am still gonna mull it over. clearly, its a show of respect to hellah. for as much success as ive had in the mac over the years, hellah is on point with enough mac stuff that i gotta consider laying off. will wait to see his write up on the game. but its mind boggling what bowling green does to people at home. once coach brandonn took over as offensive coordinator (and now head coach this year), he has made that offense a juggernaut and the falcons just pound the pi$$ outta teams at home. them averaging 50+ pts a game at home the L2 years is disgusting, lol. i can see a homecoming rout, but will lay off for now. very interested in hellah's write up on this one.
auburn....tigers have underachieved so far this year but those early losses didnt ruin any sec title hopes. auburn still talented enough to win the conference (although their schedule is brutal, with tons of tough road dates). this is a winnable game vs tennessee. true to sec football, this one should be defense galore. everyone is sold on tennessee in this one, but the vols arent exactly lighting up the offensive scoreboard. tigers run the ball well enough to battle the vols every play. auburn seems to have cleared their heads from their 0-2 start with back-to-back throttlings of inferior foes (vandy and w.kentucky). but i think those cupcake games help auburn in the long run. if this is a week one game, auburn probably a 3.5 or 4.5 point chalk. talent-wise, theres value in auburn here. tigers gotta find a way to get this home win.
ohio......huskies are spread-perfect this year, but i think theyve become a little overvalued at this point. i know its only a month into the season, but i dont think theyre 3+ touchdowns better than the bobcats. both teams really like to pound the ball on the ground, so im not seeing a ton of possessions. clock should move quickly. bobcats can be a tricky team. when they establish their tempo and option-attack, they can hang in a lot of games. theyre by no means a come-from-behind team, so i wont be expecting any backdoor cover from them. i just think theyre good enough to make this a lower-scoring, power football game. niu should have no trouble with ou, but i still think bobcats cover with no problem. also worth noting that northern illinois is in a big time "double sandwich" (if i can create a capping term). theyre coming off back-to-back wins over bcs-conference teams (alabama and iowa state) and have 2 elite mac teams on deck (western michigan followed by bowling green). very easy for huskies to get complacent and not be their sharpest
bowling green over 60.5......write-up below
texas a+m (+5)....................write-up below
kansas state (+6) (+105)....write-up below
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