==================================
4* plays = 0-1 (-4.4 units)
2* plays = 12-7 (+9.7 units)
1* plays = 16-18 (-0.69 units)
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....2pm EST
2 units......western michigan (-2) over ball st
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....3pm EST
2 units.....fresno moneyline (+125) over nevada
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....12noon EST
1 unit....northwestern moneyline (+200) over psu
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saturday 11/8/03.......2:30pm EST
1 unit....notre dame (-8) over navy
===================================
saturday 11/8/03.......12noon EST
1 unit....central florida/eastern michigan under 47
====================================
saturday 11/8/03.......7:00pm EST
1 unit.....texas (-3.5) over oklahoma state
====================================
saturday 11/8/03......10:00pm EST
2 units (upgrade).....oregon moneyline (+115) over cal
=====================================
western michigan.....time for the broncos to step up and salvage something out of this disappointing season. overall, wmu has definitely been a disappointment this year. thats a solid program that just hasnt performed like theyre capable of. i think its worth noting, however, that their schedule has been absolutely brutal the last month - which leads to some skewed numbers. ostensibly, wmu's 3-6 record isnt anything to write home about. but check the teams theyve lost to. the six losses were to michigan state, virginia, northern illinois, bowling green, marshall, and uconn. those 6 teams have a combined record of 40-15 SU. im not sure if a mac team has played a tougher schedule to this point. broncos poor season is partly their own doing, but partly a brutal schedule that was tough in the first place. this has been a close series of late, but ball state is a huge step down in class from the teams wmu has played the last month. (last month for wmu has been a gauntlet of bgsu, niu, marshall, and uconn). broncos defense has had their hands full, but wmu still possesses one of the better pass offenses in the nation (over 300 ypg) and while most see wmu is going the rest of their way with 2nd string qb drach, hes not a kid who is just getting his feet wet. he played extensively last season. and he's taken care of the ball well in his two starts this season (combined 46/71 for 546 yds...4 TDs to just one INT). just feel like wmu is superior, even though both teams come in with similar records and series history lately has been close. broncos should get a well-needed win over bsu here
fresno state...... a couple reasons for backing the bulldogs here. both teams running just about neck and neck in the wac and trying to keep pace with boise for the conference title. fresno gets boise at home 3 weeks from now and with a win here, they can put themselves in a position to be playing for a share of the wac title. nevada is giving up way way too many points the last two weeks (42 and 52, both losses). a well-respected capper once pointed out to me how profitable it can be in certain spots to go against teams who lose close games and give up a lot of points in the process. ive added a couple of my own criteria and nevada falls into a go-against here. not gonna be easy for them to shore up that porous defense and stop fresno. the bulldogs have absolutely owned nevada the last half decade (winning the last four meetings by scores of 38-30, 61-14, 58-21, and 49-24. wolfpack just cant stop hill's boys from scoring an abundance of points. fresno keeps pace in the wac and gets the win here
northwestern.......fairly rudimentary approach to this psu/nu game. wildcats have a chance for bowl eligibilty with a win here and then two weeks down the road vs. illinois (not sure if thats a credit to northwestern or an insult to the bowl eligibility criterion of 6 wins). penn state is coming off a game in which their collective heart was absolutely ripped out in the final seconds. psu was sky high for that ohio state game, having that pep rally and really laying their emotions out there for that buckeyes game. and lions deserved to win that game straight up. to me, that was the biggest game of their season and they were one incompletion away from getting that huge win. (and they got that incompletion, although the stripes missed the call in a big way, but thats neither here nor there). i just dont see penn state bouncing back and regaining that emotion thats needed to play on the road. live dog and northwestern are rarely synonymous, but this is one time they go hand in hand. northwestern wins this game outright.
notre dame.......probably not even gonna watch this game as it will be unbelievably boring...but i think there is a huge mismatch in class athletes that just cant be overlooked here....this is clearly a time where records are deceptive...trust me, i know notre dame blows...but that team still has blue-chip talent and notre dame could take a seasons worth of frustration out on the midshipmen. if you want to talk about complete opposites in strength of schedule, check out the two schedules for these teams... everyone knows notre dame's is brutal. but look at navy's opponents this year....for a division 1 independent, they cant schedule tougher than that? bottom line is that this is a chalk that wins....i dont buy that navy is the more confident team and would like to get their first win in 40 yrs vs notre dame... sure theyd like to, but i dont see them as capable of hanging in this game.... too much of a class difference.... been that way for four decades....they dont pass the ball well at all, and notre dame is tough vs the run...im seeing an ugly but dominant effort from notre dame in the range of 22-7 or something like that.
ucf/eastern michigan under 47.....too many variables to play a side in this game, but a couple of reasons i like the under.... i think its common knowledge that the ucf program is a mess... 5 guys suspended for this one including schneider...its amazing how much schneider means to that team...i was amazed at how bad ucf looked when they started rivera at quarterback at ohio university a month ago...they couldnt move the ball worth sh1t.... now kruczek is talking about possibly starting a true freshman at quarterback for this one....that kind of tells you how good rivera is (if ucf is throwing the season in the hands of a true freshman).... eastern michigan is no prize, so im just not seeing a whole lot of points being put up here.... to me, central florida is a fish out of water.... its getting fu/ckin cold in the northwest ohio/southeast michigan area.... ucf has always struggled to be sharp in these elements.... i see ucf putting forth a lame effort.. if emu didnt have problems of their own, id consider backing em.. maybe both teams say fu/ck it and play a shootout but i dont see it happening at all....playing up north in what is now 30-degree weather is the last thing ucf needs at this point in a tumultuous season
texas....adding this play for the late card....cant provide all types of reasoning behind this texas play...more of just a gut feeling... i think the oklahoma loss lingers for osu, and texas just seems to handle everyone in the conference aside from oklahoma every year.. of course thats a blanket statement, but generally true.... not a big fan of conference road chalk, but i think texas is superior and gets it done here
4* plays = 0-1 (-4.4 units)
2* plays = 12-7 (+9.7 units)
1* plays = 16-18 (-0.69 units)
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....2pm EST
2 units......western michigan (-2) over ball st
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....3pm EST
2 units.....fresno moneyline (+125) over nevada
==================================
saturday 11/8/03....12noon EST
1 unit....northwestern moneyline (+200) over psu
===================================
saturday 11/8/03.......2:30pm EST
1 unit....notre dame (-8) over navy
===================================
saturday 11/8/03.......12noon EST
1 unit....central florida/eastern michigan under 47
====================================
saturday 11/8/03.......7:00pm EST
1 unit.....texas (-3.5) over oklahoma state
====================================
saturday 11/8/03......10:00pm EST
2 units (upgrade).....oregon moneyline (+115) over cal
=====================================
western michigan.....time for the broncos to step up and salvage something out of this disappointing season. overall, wmu has definitely been a disappointment this year. thats a solid program that just hasnt performed like theyre capable of. i think its worth noting, however, that their schedule has been absolutely brutal the last month - which leads to some skewed numbers. ostensibly, wmu's 3-6 record isnt anything to write home about. but check the teams theyve lost to. the six losses were to michigan state, virginia, northern illinois, bowling green, marshall, and uconn. those 6 teams have a combined record of 40-15 SU. im not sure if a mac team has played a tougher schedule to this point. broncos poor season is partly their own doing, but partly a brutal schedule that was tough in the first place. this has been a close series of late, but ball state is a huge step down in class from the teams wmu has played the last month. (last month for wmu has been a gauntlet of bgsu, niu, marshall, and uconn). broncos defense has had their hands full, but wmu still possesses one of the better pass offenses in the nation (over 300 ypg) and while most see wmu is going the rest of their way with 2nd string qb drach, hes not a kid who is just getting his feet wet. he played extensively last season. and he's taken care of the ball well in his two starts this season (combined 46/71 for 546 yds...4 TDs to just one INT). just feel like wmu is superior, even though both teams come in with similar records and series history lately has been close. broncos should get a well-needed win over bsu here
fresno state...... a couple reasons for backing the bulldogs here. both teams running just about neck and neck in the wac and trying to keep pace with boise for the conference title. fresno gets boise at home 3 weeks from now and with a win here, they can put themselves in a position to be playing for a share of the wac title. nevada is giving up way way too many points the last two weeks (42 and 52, both losses). a well-respected capper once pointed out to me how profitable it can be in certain spots to go against teams who lose close games and give up a lot of points in the process. ive added a couple of my own criteria and nevada falls into a go-against here. not gonna be easy for them to shore up that porous defense and stop fresno. the bulldogs have absolutely owned nevada the last half decade (winning the last four meetings by scores of 38-30, 61-14, 58-21, and 49-24. wolfpack just cant stop hill's boys from scoring an abundance of points. fresno keeps pace in the wac and gets the win here
northwestern.......fairly rudimentary approach to this psu/nu game. wildcats have a chance for bowl eligibilty with a win here and then two weeks down the road vs. illinois (not sure if thats a credit to northwestern or an insult to the bowl eligibility criterion of 6 wins). penn state is coming off a game in which their collective heart was absolutely ripped out in the final seconds. psu was sky high for that ohio state game, having that pep rally and really laying their emotions out there for that buckeyes game. and lions deserved to win that game straight up. to me, that was the biggest game of their season and they were one incompletion away from getting that huge win. (and they got that incompletion, although the stripes missed the call in a big way, but thats neither here nor there). i just dont see penn state bouncing back and regaining that emotion thats needed to play on the road. live dog and northwestern are rarely synonymous, but this is one time they go hand in hand. northwestern wins this game outright.
notre dame.......probably not even gonna watch this game as it will be unbelievably boring...but i think there is a huge mismatch in class athletes that just cant be overlooked here....this is clearly a time where records are deceptive...trust me, i know notre dame blows...but that team still has blue-chip talent and notre dame could take a seasons worth of frustration out on the midshipmen. if you want to talk about complete opposites in strength of schedule, check out the two schedules for these teams... everyone knows notre dame's is brutal. but look at navy's opponents this year....for a division 1 independent, they cant schedule tougher than that? bottom line is that this is a chalk that wins....i dont buy that navy is the more confident team and would like to get their first win in 40 yrs vs notre dame... sure theyd like to, but i dont see them as capable of hanging in this game.... too much of a class difference.... been that way for four decades....they dont pass the ball well at all, and notre dame is tough vs the run...im seeing an ugly but dominant effort from notre dame in the range of 22-7 or something like that.
ucf/eastern michigan under 47.....too many variables to play a side in this game, but a couple of reasons i like the under.... i think its common knowledge that the ucf program is a mess... 5 guys suspended for this one including schneider...its amazing how much schneider means to that team...i was amazed at how bad ucf looked when they started rivera at quarterback at ohio university a month ago...they couldnt move the ball worth sh1t.... now kruczek is talking about possibly starting a true freshman at quarterback for this one....that kind of tells you how good rivera is (if ucf is throwing the season in the hands of a true freshman).... eastern michigan is no prize, so im just not seeing a whole lot of points being put up here.... to me, central florida is a fish out of water.... its getting fu/ckin cold in the northwest ohio/southeast michigan area.... ucf has always struggled to be sharp in these elements.... i see ucf putting forth a lame effort.. if emu didnt have problems of their own, id consider backing em.. maybe both teams say fu/ck it and play a shootout but i dont see it happening at all....playing up north in what is now 30-degree weather is the last thing ucf needs at this point in a tumultuous season
texas....adding this play for the late card....cant provide all types of reasoning behind this texas play...more of just a gut feeling... i think the oklahoma loss lingers for osu, and texas just seems to handle everyone in the conference aside from oklahoma every year.. of course thats a blanket statement, but generally true.... not a big fan of conference road chalk, but i think texas is superior and gets it done here
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