Saturday 12/31 Bowls

[Smitty]

Bowl Record
Sides: 12-10 +20.4
ML: 7-7 +7.6
Totals: 23-17 +15.2

December 31st? Seriously? Man.

Sugar Bowl
This one's really not about x's and o's. Despite what they are telling the media, there's no way Alabama is excited for this game. Are they good enough that they could catch a few breaks, get on a roll, and win by 21? Sure. If K St falls behind, they are in trouble. But I'm going to take advantage of the now-inflated line. In the last 14 years, Alabama has played a grand total of 2 (TWO!) non-BCS/Playoff bowl games. Both happened to be... the Sugar Bowl. In 2008, they were favored over Utah and lost by 2 TDs. (I still have fond memories of that game) In 2013, they were favored over Oklahoma and lost by... 2 TDs.

Like most football games, this will be decided in the trenches. Who can run the ball? K St depends heavily on the run. On the season, they have 12 more passing yards than rushing yards. If they can't run, they can't win.

Other side of the ball, K St is not good at stopping the run. They give up 4.28 yards/carry, 84th in the country. And Alabama is 4th in the country, gaining 5.57 yards/carry. HOWEVER, the ground game is all about will. On both sides of the ball. If you're not fired up to beat the large man across the line of scrimmage, but he IS fired up because it's basically his Super Bowl... you will not be as effective running the ball or stopping the run.

As far as I can tell, Howard will be the starting qb for K St, which is a good thing. Martinez is a talented runner, but a terrible decision maker. From what I've read, they are going to get Martinez in the game. I have to believe it will mostly be as a runner, and they won't call many pass plays for him. I sure hope not anyways. A big turnover early in the game could send this game in the wrong direction.

Ok, we're only half an hour from kickoff and I still (sigh) need to look at UK/Iowa. Really struggling with what to do with the total in this game.

Kansas State (+7.5) 6 units
K St (ML) 3 to win 7.5
1Q over (10.5, -120) 3 units. Early on, to get the Tide into the game, I kinda expect Bill O'Brien to take some deep shots.

Leaning under 57.5 for the game.

Just noticed something that I have not seen before with the Team Totals. Alabama's is 33.5 and K St's is 23.5. Nearly identical juice. How the fuck is there a 10-point gap in a game with a 7.5 pt spread? And is there any way to exploit that? Any thoughts?

 

[Smitty]

just went to put those bets in, and the first quarter total changed. not sure if they posted the wrong # and corrected their mistake, but it's actually now 12.5 at -115.

 

[rocky mountain]

just went to put those bets in, and the first quarter total changed. not sure if they posted the wrong # and corrected their mistake, but it's actually now 12.5 at -115.

Are we still playing it over ?

 

[ejthree]

Gl Smitty..Like this game over myself..

 

[Smitty]

Music City Bowl

Ugh. I've been avoiding even thinking about this game for weeks. Ok, Levis and Rodriguez are out for UK. Big, big losses. Iowa is down to their 3rd QB, who has never thrown a pass in college. I mean, with that offense... is there much of a drop-off?

Even at full strength, Iowa can't run the ball or throw the ball. But they can still stop the run, allowing 2.88 yards/att, which is 2nd in the country. They allow 5.48 yards/pass attempt, also 2nd in the country. So hard to believe UK will be able to move the ball with their backup qb & rb. UK's defense is also pretty good, but honestly a Pop Warner team could hold Iowa under 20 points.

So how in holy hell is EITHER team favored by 3 points? This game could be scoreless going to OT. You HAVE to take the 3 points, right? Well, you don't know Smitty. For one thing, he writes about himself in the 3rd person sometimes. Ok, no time to fuck around. 12 minutes to kickoff. Can't believe I'm laying points with a team that could easily get shut out. Hoping their defense can give them one short field.

Iowa (-3) 4 units
1Q under (6.5, +120) 2 units
1H under (15.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Are we still playing it over ?

sorry, yes, i still bet it at 12.5. really not much of a difference, unless someone goes for 2 and we get a 8-3 score.

 

[Smitty]

Gl Smitty..Like this game over myself..

i'm so damn torn on the total

 

[rocky mountain]

sorry, yes, i still bet it at 12.5. really not much of a difference, unless someone goes for 2 and we get a 8-3 score.

Cool cool, thanks

 

[Smitty]

dammit, i wish i had the patience to watch this iowa/uk game, and just bet every single drive to end in a punt. no way you wouldn't make a profit.

 

[rocky mountain]

Music City Bowl

Ugh. I've been avoiding even thinking about this game for weeks. Ok, Levis and Rodriguez are out for UK. Big, big losses. Iowa is down to their 3rd QB, who has never thrown a pass in college. I mean, with that offense... is there much of a drop-off?

Even at full strength, Iowa can't run the ball or throw the ball. But they can still stop the run, allowing 2.88 yards/att, which is 2nd in the country. They allow 5.48 yards/pass attempt, also 2nd in the country. So hard to believe UK will be able to move the ball with their backup qb & rb. UK's defense is also pretty good, but honestly a Pop Warner team could hold Iowa under 20 points.

So how in holy hell is EITHER team favored by 3 points? This game could be scoreless going to OT. You HAVE to take the 3 points, right? Well, you don't know Smitty. For one thing, he writes about himself in the 3rd person sometimes. Ok, no time to fuck around. 12 minutes to kickoff. Can't believe I'm laying points with a team that could easily get shut out. Hoping their defense can give them one short field.

Iowa (-3) 4 units
1Q under (6.5, +120) 2 units :00hour
1H under (15.5) 2 units

Yes Smitty!

 

[rocky mountain]

Bowl Record
Sides: 12-10 +20.4
ML: 7-7 +7.6
Totals: 23-17 +15.2

December 31st? Seriously? Man.

Sugar Bowl
This one's really not about x's and o's. Despite what they are telling the media, there's no way Alabama is excited for this game. Are they good enough that they could catch a few breaks, get on a roll, and win by 21? Sure. If K St falls behind, they are in trouble. But I'm going to take advantage of the now-inflated line. In the last 14 years, Alabama has played a grand total of 2 (TWO!) non-BCS/Playoff bowl games. Both happened to be... the Sugar Bowl. In 2008, they were favored over Utah and lost by 2 TDs. (I still have fond memories of that game) In 2013, they were favored over Oklahoma and lost by... 2 TDs.

Like most football games, this will be decided in the trenches. Who can run the ball? K St depends heavily on the run. On the season, they have 12 more passing yards than rushing yards. If they can't run, they can't win.

Other side of the ball, K St is not good at stopping the run. They give up 4.28 yards/carry, 84th in the country. And Alabama is 4th in the country, gaining 5.57 yards/carry. HOWEVER, the ground game is all about will. On both sides of the ball. If you're not fired up to beat the large man across the line of scrimmage, but he IS fired up because it's basically his Super Bowl... you will not be as effective running the ball or stopping the run.

As far as I can tell, Howard will be the starting qb for K St, which is a good thing. Martinez is a talented runner, but a terrible decision maker. From what I've read, they are going to get Martinez in the game. I have to believe it will mostly be as a runner, and they won't call many pass plays for him. I sure hope not anyways. A big turnover early in the game could send this game in the wrong direction.

Ok, we're only half an hour from kickoff and I still (sigh) need to look at UK/Iowa. Really struggling with what to do with the total in this game.

Kansas State (+7.5) 6 units
K St (ML) 3 to win 7.5
1Q over (10.5, -120) 3 units. Early on, to get the Tide into the game, I kinda expect Bill O'Brien to take some deep shots. :00hour

Leaning under 57.5 for the game.

Just noticed something that I have not seen before with the Team Totals. Alabama's is 33.5 and K St's is 23.5. Nearly identical juice. How the fuck is there a 10-point gap in a game with a 7.5 pt spread? And is there any way to exploit that? Any thoughts?

Yes x 2 Smitty!

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Well, if nothing else, we shouldn't have to worry about any opt-outs for this game.

Just a reminder... normally this is the point in the bowl season where I start to give back some of my profits. Last year was a rare, and magical, exception. So tread lightly.

Michigan was hardly tested this year. They only played 2 ranked teams, which is so surprising that I double-checked it. Now, they destroyed Penn St and Ohio St by a combined score of 86-40. They only had 3 games that were even close in the 4th quarter. And in all 3, they responded how you'd want a good team to respond.

Maryland got within 5 with 9 minutes left. UM scored the next 10 points before giving up a meaningless TD with under a minute left.

Illinois took a 7-point lead into the 4th quarter. UM outscored them 9-0 on 3 drives. Harbaugh is still a dipshit, but maybe his best decision of the year was to kick the fg with 3 minutes left while down 4. It was 4th and 11 at the Illinois 15-yard line. I feel like most coaches would have panicked and gone for it.

UM led Ohio St 24-20 going into the 4th quarter, and outscored them 21-3 the rest of the way.

The injury to Corum may be a bit of a blessing in disguise for the Wolverines. He's a very good back who runs hard, no doubt. And he averaged a solid 5.9 yards/carry. But he's not as explosive as Edwards, who averaged 7.5. Against their 2 ranked opponents (PSU & OSU, both defenses that are much better against the run than TCU), Edwards ran for 389 yards on 38 carries. Let that sink in. I won't even do the math for you.

(side note - I just watched the 1st quarter of the Iowa game. Always nice to hit that first bet of the day. And, shit, I coulda been making BANK on those punts!)

(second side note - I was trying to avoid seeing updates on the other game, as I'm recording it. But I think I saw K St go up 10-0. Great start, if I saw that correctly.)

Ok, one more quick note about the UM offense... McCarthy still worries me a little. Sure, his numbers are really good, and they don't ask him to do too much. But at the start of the Ohio St game, he looked like he was in over his head. If he gets off to a rocky start today, that could give TCU some hope.

While TCU certainly played more ranked teams, um, let's take a closer look.... ok, they beat Kansas, breaking a tie with 90 seconds left. That was the game Daniels got hurt. Bean played well, but KU had some magic with Daniels up to that point. So we'll never know what would have happened. They beat Oklahoma (hahahahaha, yes, OK was still ranked 18th at the beginning of October). They beat OK St in double OT. They beat K St when they knocked Martinez out of the game in the first quarter. And they beat Texas, in a game where the Longhorns only gave the ball to the best RB in the country 12 times (that's for you, Box!!). So, sure, they've been tested. But some of those tests were from teams that turned out to be pretty weak, and in two of them they won close games when they knocked out the opposing QB. So, maybe they'll knock McCarthy out and pull off another win today. But I'm betting against it. While the Big10 was down this year, I still think it was quite a bit better than the (always) garbage Big12. Sorry, Big12 fans! But your conference is the PAC12 of the Dust Bowl! :violin:

Overall as a team, Michigan is 3rd in the country, averaging 5.64 yards/carry. And TCU allows 4.1 yards/carry, which is 67th.

TCU has a pretty balanced offense. They ran nearly 100 times more than they threw it this year, and Miller had an outstanding year, averaging 6.2 yards/carry. But UM may be able to make them one-dimensional, as they only give up 2.92 yards/carry, which is 5th in the country. Oh, and Michigan's pass defense? Yeah, they allow 5.81 yards/att, which is also 5th in the country.

I think that's going to be the key to this game... TCU is not facing a Big12 defense. I like Michigan to establish that ground game and just keep pounding away with Edwards.

Michigan (-7.5) 6 units
Under (57.5) 6 units
TCU TT under (24.5, -125) 4 units

 

[rocky mountain]

Kentucky Kid got us, he tossed two touchdowns...:facepalm:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Fiesta Bowl

Well, if nothing else, we shouldn't have to worry about any opt-outs for this game.

Just a reminder... normally this is the point in the bowl season where I start to give back some of my profits. Last year was a rare, and magical, exception. So tread lightly.

Michigan was hardly tested this year. They only played 2 ranked teams, which is so surprising that I double-checked it. Now, they destroyed Penn St and Ohio St by a combined score of 86-40. They only had 3 games that were even close in the 4th quarter. And in all 3, they responded how you'd want a good team to respond.

Maryland got within 5 with 9 minutes left. UM scored the next 10 points before giving up a meaningless TD with under a minute left.

Illinois took a 7-point lead into the 4th quarter. UM outscored them 9-0 on 3 drives. Harbaugh is still a dipshit, but maybe his best decision of the year was to kick the fg with 3 minutes left while down 4. It was 4th and 11 at the Illinois 15-yard line. I feel like most coaches would have panicked and gone for it.

UM led Ohio St 24-20 going into the 4th quarter, and outscored them 21-3 the rest of the way.

The injury to Corum may be a bit of a blessing in disguise for the Wolverines. He's a very good back who runs hard, no doubt. And he averaged a solid 5.9 yards/carry. But he's not as explosive as Edwards, who averaged 7.5. Against their 2 ranked opponents (PSU & OSU, both defenses that are much better against the run than TCU), Edwards ran for 389 yards on 38 carries. Let that sink in. I won't even do the math for you.

(side note - I just watched the 1st quarter of the Iowa game. Always nice to hit that first bet of the day. And, shit, I coulda been making BANK on those punts!)

(second side note - I was trying to avoid seeing updates on the other game, as I'm recording it. But I think I saw K St go up 10-0. Great start, if I saw that correctly.)

Ok, one more quick note about the UM offense... McCarthy still worries me a little. Sure, his numbers are really good, and they don't ask him to do too much. But at the start of the Ohio St game, he looked like he was in over his head. If he gets off to a rocky start today, that could give TCU some hope.

While TCU certainly played more ranked teams, um, let's take a closer look.... ok, they beat Kansas, breaking a tie with 90 seconds left. That was the game Daniels got hurt. Bean played well, but KU had some magic with Daniels up to that point. So we'll never know what would have happened. They beat Oklahoma (hahahahaha, yes, OK was still ranked 18th at the beginning of October). They beat OK St in double OT. They beat K St when they knocked Martinez out of the game in the first quarter. And they beat Texas, in a game where the Longhorns only gave the ball to the best RB in the country 12 times (that's for you, Box!!). So, sure, they've been tested. But some of those tests were from teams that turned out to be pretty weak, and in two of them they won close games when they knocked out the opposing QB. So, maybe they'll knock McCarthy out and pull off another win today. But I'm betting against it. While the Big10 was down this year, I still think it was quite a bit better than the (always) garbage Big12. Sorry, Big12 fans! But your conference is the PAC12 of the Dust Bowl! :violin:

Overall as a team, Michigan is 3rd in the country, averaging 5.64 yards/carry. And TCU allows 4.1 yards/carry, which is 67th.

TCU has a pretty balanced offense. They ran nearly 100 times more than they threw it this year, and Miller had an outstanding year, averaging 6.2 yards/carry. But UM may be able to make them one-dimensional, as they only give up 2.92 yards/carry, which is 5th in the country. Oh, and Michigan's pass defense? Yeah, they allow 5.81 yards/att, which is also 5th in the country.

I think that's going to be the key to this game... TCU is not facing a Big12 defense. I like Michigan to establish that ground game and just keep pounding away with Edwards.

Michigan (-7.5) 6 units
Under (57.5) 6 units
TCU TT under (24.5, -125) 4 units

Michigan homer here. I think Michigan will pull it out but I have no idea how easy/hard it will be.

A couple things I've heard throughout the week that favor Michigan: TCU has had more 50 yard plays that anyone (or one of the most) and Michigan has only given up 1 50yd play all year. TCU is a bad 3rd down and red zone team, which shouldn't fare well against a strong defense.

 

[Smitty]

Kentucky Kid got us, he tossed two touchdowns...:facepalm:

hahaha yup. that 2nd one was the killer.

soooo.... anything much happening in the 2nd half of the other game? :facepalm:

that sequence at the end of the 1st half was brutal. i'm ok with the decision to go for it on 4th down. but to then call TO after bama's first play... i just shook my head and said "you just gave them a free TO." sure enough, what, 6 plays later and bama was in the end zone and the game was over.

 

[ejthree]

hahaha yup. that 2nd one was the killer.

soooo.... anything much happening in the 2nd half of the other game? :facepalm:

that sequence at the end of the 1st half was brutal. i'm ok with the decision to go for it on 4th down. but to then call TO after bama's first play... i just shook my head and said "you just gave them a free TO." sure enough, what, 6 plays later and bama was in the end zone and the game was over.

When I read Brice Young and Anderson did not opt out , I lost a lot of interest in K St , these two guys could both go in top 5 and are tremendous leaders and old Mo switched at that point.. Of course, I'm the best at hindsight lol.

 

[Smitty]

Michigan homer here. I think Michigan will pull it out but I have no idea how easy/hard it will be.

A couple things I've heard throughout the week that favor Michigan: TCU has had more 50 yard plays that anyone (or one of the most) and Michigan has only given up 1 50yd play all year. TCU is a bad 3rd down and red zone team, which shouldn't fare well against a strong defense.

Yeah, TCU is 53rd in the country at converting 3rd downs. You'd think they'd be better with that offense. And UM is 19th in the country defensively.

Also surprised to see TCU is 81st in Red Zone offense, but they still score TDs on 67% of their RZ trips, which is decent. They just don't kick a lot of fgs. That's going to be interesting to watch, as Michigan's RZ defense has been very good. Near as I can tell, they are the only team in the country that gave up more fgs in the RZ than TDs.

 

[Smitty]

Peach Bowl

(quick side note - looks like i really drove down the total on the Fiesta Bowl - now it's 56. And this cracks me up... my cashout option is still $10 LOWER than my original bet. So I got a good #, but they are still offering me less money to cash out my bet. Go figure.)

This one scares me a little. Especially the line movement today. Normally I don't like "home" teams in bowl games, but obviously this is a little different. No shortage of motivation for the dawgs. I guess they have gone from being the hunter last year to the hunted today and, hopefully, 9 days from now.

Both teams had easier schedules than you'd expect from these conferences. OSU beat ND in the opener, which wasn't as impressive as it seemed at the time. After that, they played one ranked team the entire regular season, finally putting away Penn St in the 4th quarter.

Georgia demolished Oregon in the opener and then only played one ranked team the rest of their regular season. That one happened to be a #1 ranked Tennessee team that Georgia held to 13 points. Hard to imagine going through an SEC schedule and only playing 1 ranked team.

(Another quick side note: Jalen Carter picking up the LSU qb in the SEC Championship Game and holding him in the air like a trophy until the ref blew the whistle was probably my favorite play this season. It was very smart and friggin' hilarious.)

OSU only played two top-forty offenses this year. They gave up 31 to PSU and 45 to Michigan. Their defensive improvement from last year may be more due to facing a lot of bad offenses than anything else.

I feel like Kirby Smart is the only Saban disciple who actually learned anything. He's winning games (and championships) with defense and a balance offense.

Alright, I still have that nagging thought in the back of my head that, somehow, OSU is going to keep this close. But I have to stick with my gut, which tells me Georgia is just a far better team. Maybe OSU will hit a couple big plays early and roll from there. The line is down to 5 now, and I just gotta grab it. I'm as on the fence with the total, too. I think I have to play the under. One thing that I noticed when looking at the Red Zone data for Michigan/TCU is that Georgia settles for a surprising number of fgs. They score in the RZ at the highest % in the country, but 30% of those scores are fgs. For comparison, the number for OSU, which scores in the RZ at the second highest rate, is 20%.

Georgia has, by far, the best RZ defense in the country, allowing a score on 60.7% of RZ drives. The 2nd best is 66.7%. And of the 17 RZ scores Georgia allowed, 9 of them were fgs.

Ohio St's RZ defense has been particularly bad, allowing a score 91.3% of the time, which is 122nd in the country. Luckily for them, they have allowed the fewest RZ opportunities in the country. 67% of those RZ scores were TDs.

Georgia (-5) 4 units
Under (62) 2 units.
OSU TT under (28.5, -125) 2 units

Sooo... I accidentally just bet the under for double what I intended to. I went to cash it out, and it had immediately fallen by $22. So I'm letting it ride. Obviously that means the over is a stone cold lock. Place your wagers accordingly. You're welcome. Let my loss be your gain. :0008

 

[ejthree]

Peach Bowl

(quick side note - looks like i really drove down the total on the Fiesta Bowl - now it's 56. And this cracks me up... my cashout option is still $10 LOWER than my original bet. So I got a good #, but they are still offering me less money to cash out my bet. Go figure.)

This one scares me a little. Especially the line movement today. Normally I don't like "home" teams in bowl games, but obviously this is a little different. No shortage of motivation for the dawgs. I guess they have gone from being the hunter last year to the hunted today and, hopefully, 9 days from now.

Both teams had easier schedules than you'd expect from these conferences. OSU beat ND in the opener, which wasn't as impressive as it seemed at the time. After that, they played one ranked team the entire regular season, finally putting away Penn St in the 4th quarter.

Georgia demolished Oregon in the opener and then only played one ranked team the rest of their regular season. That one happened to be a #1 ranked Tennessee team that Georgia held to 13 points. Hard to imagine going through an SEC schedule and only playing 1 ranked team.

(Another quick side note: Jalen Carter picking up the LSU qb in the SEC Championship Game and holding him in the air like a trophy until the ref blew the whistle was probably my favorite play this season. It was very smart and friggin' hilarious.)

OSU only played two top-forty offenses this year. They gave up 31 to PSU and 45 to Michigan. Their defensive improvement from last year may be more due to facing a lot of bad offenses than anything else.

I feel like Kirby Smart is the only Saban disciple who actually learned anything. He's winning games (and championships) with defense and a balance offense.

Alright, I still have that nagging thought in the back of my head that, somehow, OSU is going to keep this close. But I have to stick with my gut, which tells me Georgia is just a far better team. Maybe OSU will hit a couple big plays early and roll from there. The line is down to 5 now, and I just gotta grab it. I'm as on the fence with the total, too. I think I have to play the under. One thing that I noticed when looking at the Red Zone data for Michigan/TCU is that Georgia settles for a surprising number of fgs. They score in the RZ at the highest % in the country, but 30% of those scores are fgs. For comparison, the number for OSU, which scores in the RZ at the second highest rate, is 20%.

Georgia has, by far, the best RZ defense in the country, allowing a score on 60.7% of RZ drives. The 2nd best is 66.7%. And of the 17 RZ scores Georgia allowed, 9 of them were fgs.

Ohio St's RZ defense has been particularly bad, allowing a score 91.3% of the time, which is 122nd in the country. Luckily for them, they have allowed the fewest RZ opportunities in the country. 67% of those RZ scores were TDs.

Georgia (-5) 4 units
Under (62) 2 units.
OSU TT under (28.5, -125) 2 units

Sooo... I accidentally just bet the under for double what I intended to. I went to cash it out, and it had immediately fallen by $22. So I'm letting it ride. Obviously that means the over is a stone cold lock. Place your wagers accordingly. You're welcome. Let my loss be your gain. :0008

Agree, no reason to over think this one, I have Ohio St +16.5 in a teaser but my bet back will be larger on the Bulldogs. GL Smitty, love this play.

 

[1837]

Good luck Smitty.Always a pleasure reading you :0008