Saturday 3/10

[203Hoosier]

Yesterday's picks
10-8
+6.42 units

Conference future plays
0-1 (Florida)
-3 units

Total yesterday
10-9
+3.42 units

2018
214-223-2
+226.21 units


Saturday

3 units
Yale +7 (-105 5dimes)....played this yesterday. Penn is home at The Palestra. I saw Yale several times this year in person, and the team keeps improving. Eli's won 7 of 8 to end the regular season, including a WILD 80-79 win over Penn last Friday in New Haven. I 'capped this game as Penn -3 as soon as the match-ups became clear last Saturday night. In Yale's trip to Penn in early February, the Quakers came away with a 59-50 victory. However, that loss was the turning-point of Yale's season, as the Bulldogs have gotten so much better offensively. I'm thinking the line is too high, based primarily on the fact Makai Mason might be in street clothes for Yale. However, the senior guard has been out of the lineup for something like 56 of the last 60 games, so Yale is certainly used to playing without him. (He's seen limited minutes the last few weeks)
Penn's last three games have been decided by 3, 1, and 6. I expect another close one here.
I can't get myself to pull the trigger on the moneyline with Yale on the road, but I think this game goes down to the wire.
"Boola Boola."

2units
Cornell +6.5 (-110 5dimes)...played this one yesterday as well. Both Ivy lines have moved in my favor.
I always like a neutral court game where 3 out of the 4 teams' fan bases pull for the underdog. That's what will happen in this game for Cornell at The Palestra.
It's been Harvard's league, mainly, over the last decade or so, so the fans in that famed arena in Philadelphia will be rooting against the Crimson- the bullies.
Harvard won by 3 at Cornell in early February, and needed double overtime to defeat the Big Red at home last weekend. Cornell clinched the fourth and final spot in "Ivy Madness" with an impressive 11-point win at Dartmouth last Saturday night. (It's never easy to win in Hanover on a Saturday night in league play, I've observed through the years)
Just like the Yale-Penn game, I can't pull the trigger on the dog with the moneyline. But I also see this coming down to the wire.

It's been a crazy year in the Ivy League. All eight teams are capable of beating anyone in the league on a given night. It's the first time I've seen that in my 25+ years of following this league closely.

WARNING: AS I said in my initial post yesterday, it might be a good time to "fade" me in the Ivy League. I've hit around 90% of my Ivy League conference plays this year, and I'm usually only around 75% or so. Meaning, I'm probably due for an 0-2 day. So tread lightly if you decide to tail me.

I'll add the rest of my Saturday plays later. Studying them now. Nothing really stands out for me; probably just a few 1-unit plays I'll be adding.

 

[eeeerock]

You are a class act,give a reason and keep a record and very good at what you do...Impressive what you have done this year hope you stay and continue to post in the future...Just curious if you wager on baseball or if baskets is your best...U seem to have a good eye for the ML so was just curious?

 

[BigGaycapper]

Great write ups, appreciate you sharing. Best of luck to you :0008

 

[hogwild1900]

Thanks Hoosier!!

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[203Hoosier]

Thanks for the nice words, guys.

eeerock, I only currently wager on three sports: college hoops, college football, and Major League Baseball. (I used to do NHL, but I was average, so it was a waste of my time to cap each game. I had a hard time finding "value" in a particular game and a hard time adapting to the constant rule changes and roster moves...plus those empty-net goals never seemed to go my way!)

College football is probably my best sport, but I don't win as many units at season's end compared to college hoops, solely because the total number of games/plays is significantly lower in college football. The vast majority of my plays in college football are moneyline underdogs.

Baseball I do two things daily:
1- I pick two moneyline underdogs each day and I just hope to split. I look at each game and think about my perceived win %s compared to the +odds. I rarely pick dogs that are +190 or greater. At the end of the year, I usually end up hitting between 47-48% of my plays, and grind out a decent profit.
2- I select two teams before the season starts who will NOT play each other that year (obviously one AL team and one NL team). I then "streak" those teams everyday. I got this angle from my father, who used to do it with locals 30-40 years ago. (But offshore is much better, because they can't/won't adjust the odds against me, and I have multiple books that I play with, and shop for the best prices)
Here's the way it works: I choose two teams before the season who I think might be "streaky" teams. Meaning, how many times have we all heard on the radio and seen things on TV like "The Mets, who had won 8 of 9, have now lost 5 straight." All the time! Baseball is like that. Teams might go a week pounding the ball, and the next several days they can't hit a lick. Pitching works the same way.
If the Mets are my streak team, I bet ON them when they are coming off a win, and AGAINST them when they are coming off a loss. The hope here is that they will Win 5, then lose 4, then win 6, then lose 7. Win 11 of 13, then turn around and lose 8 of 10.
The reason I pick two teams to "streak" is that it doubles my profit potential.
No handicapping involved in this angle. I have yet to select my two teams for 2018. I'm open to suggestions for two teams that have the potential to be very streaky this year :0008. Usually, though it's just a matter of luck.

Anyway, I have a few more 1 unit hoop plays for today, which I'll post below.

 

[203Hoosier]

1 unit
Alabama +175 (Bovada).....which Tide team will show up? Hopefully the one we've seen this week in St. Louis with Sexton dominating.

St. Joe's +330 (BetOnline)....I totally get the "revenge angle" for Rhode Blue after Joe's served them a 30-point beatdown on their Senior Night at URI. I just can't pass up this price.

Bonnies +125 (5dimes)...these two teams just played a classic recently, with St. Bon coming out on top. I think this price is backwards, so I'll bite.

WVU +100 (youwager)...I think this is finally the night where the 'Neers finish off Kansas, at last. Bill Self really doesn't put too much stock into the Big 12 Tournament (just like Bob Knight didn't with the beginning of the Big Ten Tournament) Bog Huggins, on the other hand, is desperate for his first Big 12 Tourney title, after losing in the championship the last two years. Death, taxes, Kansas winning the Big 12 regular season title. (It doesn't say anything about the Big 12 Tourney)

Pine Bluff +7 (-110 5dimes)....Pine Bluff won both regular season meetings with Texas Southern, so I'll grab the points. The reason why I can't pull the trigger on the moneyline is because Coach Mike Davis has a history of doing well in tournament play with short turnarounds. Plus, Texas Southern's gauntlet of a non-conference schedule can prove the difference today in a tight game.

San Diego State -185 (5dimes). Wow, there are only a few (if any teams) that have been playing better basketball recently than the Aztecs. How about that jaw-dropping first half against Nevada yesterday?! New Mexico comes in hot, too, winners of 7 straight, and the Lobos cameback to stun SDSU at The Pit back in January. But the quality of teams in SDSU's 8-game winning streak is much more impressive than that of New Mexico's. It will be a contrast of styles, but Ill go with the better defensive team, SDSU.

That's all for today. There's a chance I'll add some late-night games later.

Be careful out there today! For me, conference tournament games are the most difficult to handicap.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Thanks Hoosier GL

 

[jordan23]

Hoosier, do you plan to post during baseball? I would love to see your plays. Thanks

 

[203Hoosier]

Hi Jordan,
Yes, I will post during baseball. Always four plays per day: two dogs, and the two "streak" teams. (But my streak teams really won't have to be posted, because you'll already know who I'm on, based on how those teams did in their last game)
In baseball, I will not have time for any daily write-ups, as I'm quite busy in the Spring and Summer. Plus, who really wants to hear a baseball write-up? LOL. It's a grind. I might post my plays the night before on the overnight lines. I highly recommend everybody use an offshore (like 5dimes or Heritage) which offer reduced juice overnight lines. It saves me thousands upon thousands of dollars per year. 5dimes overnight "nickel" lines are the best bargain in sports, in my humble opinion.

 

[Dewey Finn]

Hey Hoosier,
I'm all in with you on Yale. Jones can play this to a draw with Donahue.
All the pressure on the Quakers, and the Penn fans are already punch drunk on the
Palestra Kool Aid.

Passed on Harvard. Can't get the Big Red big loses off my mind.
BOL big guy. Great year you've had.

 

[203Hoosier]

Terrible ending to the first half for Cornell.
They were leading outright by 7 points with under 3:00 left. Harvard then goes on a 16-4 run in the last 2:45 of the half.
That's Cornell's problem- they tend to give up points in bunches.
Oh well, 20 minutes still to go.

Dewey, yes, that's why I put more on Yale than Cornell (3 units to 2 units)....I think Yale is the better of the two plays.

 

[eeeerock]

Harvard big man tries to throw lob to teammate,instead it goes in hoop for 3,unreal right now but still time,I turned it off thinking I might be the jinx as they missed every FT since I turned it on and they hadn't missed any before.

 

[203Hoosier]

St. Joe's up 7 at halftime and I have them +330 for a unit. If they hold on vs. URI (and that is a big if!) that would MORE than make up for this Cornell game for me! C'mon, Hawks! Beat Rhode Blue!

 

[203Hoosier]

Well, losing like that is certainly less painful. :0002
I like the regular season and the NCAA Tournament better for capping. As I said, I find conference tourneys so hard to predict, so that's why I generally keep my units lower this time of year (with a few exceptions, like Villanova last night)

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Yale needs to start hitting shots before this gets out of hand

 

[203Hoosier]

Johnny, i don't know what is worse- Yale's offense or it's defense?:shrug:

This is the 2nd ever Ivy League Tournament, and I'm not a fan of it. I liked that this league was the last hold-out. (At least they only let the top 4 teams in)
I didn't touch any of the 3 games last year in the first year of Ivy Madness, because the lines were tight.
Lesson learned for me today: I am not good at capping conference tournaments on neutral floors (although it is a home game for Penn)
Moving forward, I'll be sticking to regular season Ivy games; the familiar Friday-Saturday night two-game road trips/home-stands. I like that routine. Much more predictable for me!
Not touching tomorrow's championship game.
Can't wait until next Thursday and the start of the NCAA Tournament! Brutal day so far- St. Joe's blew it in the 2H vs. URI....that would have been a great hit.
Oh well, this sort of day happens. Lesson learned.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Looking forward to your picks for the tournament

 

[203Hoosier]

Stop the fight. :0002

Adding 8 units
Villanova -950 (BetOnline)
Don't think Providence has much left in the tank after two consecutive OT wins. Nova has blitzed through this Big East Tournament with ease. Nova wins this game 14 out of 15 times, so I actually find value in the price.

Halftime analysis and 2H play:
Providence 2nd chance points and Villanova's poor shooting are keeping the Friars in the game. Yet, Providence has never led in the game and Nova is still ahead by 4.
2H play: 8 more units
Villanova +4 -1135 (5dimes).....so it's basically Villanova to win the game at -1135.
I think Jay Wright will rip into his team at halftime about giving up way too many 2nd chance points to the Friars in the first half. DiVencenzo stinking it up in the 1h for Nova, 0-6 from field. Nova's bench has a grand total of 1 point. Think Providence legs are tired; they are short on a few threes so far. That's legs. Nova wins this game.

 

[203Hoosier]

LOL....it looks like Villanova is the only thing Philadelphia-related that is going my way today. But there's still 18 minutes left!

 

[203Hoosier]

I was very lucky Villanova took the game into OT.
Providence just didn't have anything left playing in its 3rd straight overtime in 3 consecutive days.

Final tally for the day:
3-7
+6.55 units. (Thank you Villanova!)