Good morning, good morning, good morning!!!!
Happiness is the opening Saturday of the season!
Happiness is muttering in disbelief "what in the world is he doing" while watching an Oregon State QB, but smiling at the same time because you have bet against the Beavers.
Thanks to UB and Stanford, I am off to a nice 2-0 start on the season. Of course, big thanks to the engineers in Corvallis who have added a new dimension to the typical Turnover Machine they trot out at QB every fall. The 'throwing for a safety" feature was a pleasant surprise. Awesome!
Ok, enough of that. Onto today. Got a quick post here then heading up to Ann Arbor. Something about a new coach, new era. Might be compelling stuff. Hope we UM backers wont need paper bags to wear when its all said and done. Here are my picks today:
ECU +9 over Va Tech. The Pirates have been a quiet moneymaker since Skip Holtz took over. They are 26-11 ATS in his three seasons. Admittedly, I have not been part of this ECU Rennaissance, but throw in their 13-3 ATS mark as a dog away from home under Holtz and I have jumped on the bandwagon as it was speeding by. They ended the year with an impressive win over Boise in the bowl game, they have 16 starters back and other than having to replace a productive RB dont find themselves rebuilding any single unit heading into this season. The Pirates steady rise in the CFB world ought to continue for at least one more season.
But, consider VT here for a second. Did you know that for the last four years this team has been in the top-5 nationally in scoring and total D? They have. However, attrition finallys hits the Hokies hard. They've lost over 200 career starts from last year's defense, including one 4-year starter and three 3- and 2-year starters respectively. That's way too much high end talent, including virtually the entire front seven, to lose and to continue being a top shelf unit. I have faith Bud Foster will create a solid D, but in this frist game against an offense that scored 31 per game last year, I think they will struggle to contain the diverse ECU attack. VT is also breaking in a whole new set of skill players, and returning QB Glennon is not the paragon of consistency.
ECU has the edge at the QB position. VT defense is in rebuilding mode. This spread is too high. The game will be decided by less than a TD.
ULL +10.5 over So Miss. I see a lot of guys on this board that I've tailed before on ULL, so that helps give me one extra final push towards this game. What I like here is we have a first-year head coach laying double digits. I like to fade teams in that spot. You would think I would have some exhaustive research on this topic and with a grueling off season wanted to compile it all together. But, I dont and I didn't. I blame water sports and boat drinks. But, I do know first year HCs are 19-27-1 the last 2 years a double digit chalk. Not great fade numbers, but two coaches, Bielema/Wisco '06 and Erickson/ASU, have really busted this trend going a combined 9-3 in this spot. Most of those, though, were in the OOC mismatches they had on the slate. So, If you're a picky and smart trend shopper, you can avoid the bad spots with this angle. Avoid playing against the good teams (like wisco and ASU were), avoid obvious mismatches, look for first-time HCs (as opposed to Erickson last year) and play the league games.
So, this game does not put us in any of those bad spots, although this is not a conference game. You have to wonder if So Miss is looking ahead to Auburn (Kramer, thoughts?) next week and if the first time HC can keep them from doing that. ULL has 15 returning starters. They were hit hard by injuries last year, but improved a lot last November as they got healthier. The Eagles, meanwhile, return just 10 starters, have to rebuild both lines, break in a new QB and and two new starters in the secondary. They're just 5-9 ATS at home the last three seasons. I like Fedora as a long term HC, but he might have some trouble today and throughout the season and will struggle to keep the Eagles' bowl streak going. Today, against a solid darkhorse from the SBC, they will get a close fight that will be much closer than the experts think.
Michigan St +4 over Cal. Does the loser of this game begin their yearly season collapse before summer even ends?!?!?! Despite being on the road, I like the Spartys in this one. Cal's senior class is just 6-11 ATS at home. On paper, I like MSU's rushing offense and defense better than I do Cal's. I also like their QB more, even though I believe Tedford is making the right move by going with Riley. When you cap a game and like one teams ability to rush and stop the rush better than the other and that team is getting points, you have to take that team. People may debate MSU's edge over Cal in those departments, but on paper I like the Spartans in those matchups. Besides, its August. We're not to fade Sparty until their annual autumnal collapse in November, a month that treats Turkeys better than Spartans. In truth, I feel they will shake the choke, underachieving rap as we get farther along in the Dantonio era. Last year, his first at MSU, they were 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog (2-3 as a DD fav, by the way
). I'll keep riding that wave.
So, that's what I got. Three picks for sure, although I will probably add a few more plays as the day goes on. But, I will be at the Big House, so I dont think I will be able to post anything else. I promise a full, first hand account of the experiment up in Ann Arbor.
Good luck to everyone today.....and HAVE A BLAST watching all the awesome action!!!
:toast: :toast: :toast:
Happiness is the opening Saturday of the season!
Happiness is muttering in disbelief "what in the world is he doing" while watching an Oregon State QB, but smiling at the same time because you have bet against the Beavers.
Thanks to UB and Stanford, I am off to a nice 2-0 start on the season. Of course, big thanks to the engineers in Corvallis who have added a new dimension to the typical Turnover Machine they trot out at QB every fall. The 'throwing for a safety" feature was a pleasant surprise. Awesome!
Ok, enough of that. Onto today. Got a quick post here then heading up to Ann Arbor. Something about a new coach, new era. Might be compelling stuff. Hope we UM backers wont need paper bags to wear when its all said and done. Here are my picks today:
ECU +9 over Va Tech. The Pirates have been a quiet moneymaker since Skip Holtz took over. They are 26-11 ATS in his three seasons. Admittedly, I have not been part of this ECU Rennaissance, but throw in their 13-3 ATS mark as a dog away from home under Holtz and I have jumped on the bandwagon as it was speeding by. They ended the year with an impressive win over Boise in the bowl game, they have 16 starters back and other than having to replace a productive RB dont find themselves rebuilding any single unit heading into this season. The Pirates steady rise in the CFB world ought to continue for at least one more season.
But, consider VT here for a second. Did you know that for the last four years this team has been in the top-5 nationally in scoring and total D? They have. However, attrition finallys hits the Hokies hard. They've lost over 200 career starts from last year's defense, including one 4-year starter and three 3- and 2-year starters respectively. That's way too much high end talent, including virtually the entire front seven, to lose and to continue being a top shelf unit. I have faith Bud Foster will create a solid D, but in this frist game against an offense that scored 31 per game last year, I think they will struggle to contain the diverse ECU attack. VT is also breaking in a whole new set of skill players, and returning QB Glennon is not the paragon of consistency.
ECU has the edge at the QB position. VT defense is in rebuilding mode. This spread is too high. The game will be decided by less than a TD.
ULL +10.5 over So Miss. I see a lot of guys on this board that I've tailed before on ULL, so that helps give me one extra final push towards this game. What I like here is we have a first-year head coach laying double digits. I like to fade teams in that spot. You would think I would have some exhaustive research on this topic and with a grueling off season wanted to compile it all together. But, I dont and I didn't. I blame water sports and boat drinks. But, I do know first year HCs are 19-27-1 the last 2 years a double digit chalk. Not great fade numbers, but two coaches, Bielema/Wisco '06 and Erickson/ASU, have really busted this trend going a combined 9-3 in this spot. Most of those, though, were in the OOC mismatches they had on the slate. So, If you're a picky and smart trend shopper, you can avoid the bad spots with this angle. Avoid playing against the good teams (like wisco and ASU were), avoid obvious mismatches, look for first-time HCs (as opposed to Erickson last year) and play the league games.
So, this game does not put us in any of those bad spots, although this is not a conference game. You have to wonder if So Miss is looking ahead to Auburn (Kramer, thoughts?) next week and if the first time HC can keep them from doing that. ULL has 15 returning starters. They were hit hard by injuries last year, but improved a lot last November as they got healthier. The Eagles, meanwhile, return just 10 starters, have to rebuild both lines, break in a new QB and and two new starters in the secondary. They're just 5-9 ATS at home the last three seasons. I like Fedora as a long term HC, but he might have some trouble today and throughout the season and will struggle to keep the Eagles' bowl streak going. Today, against a solid darkhorse from the SBC, they will get a close fight that will be much closer than the experts think.
Michigan St +4 over Cal. Does the loser of this game begin their yearly season collapse before summer even ends?!?!?! Despite being on the road, I like the Spartys in this one. Cal's senior class is just 6-11 ATS at home. On paper, I like MSU's rushing offense and defense better than I do Cal's. I also like their QB more, even though I believe Tedford is making the right move by going with Riley. When you cap a game and like one teams ability to rush and stop the rush better than the other and that team is getting points, you have to take that team. People may debate MSU's edge over Cal in those departments, but on paper I like the Spartans in those matchups. Besides, its August. We're not to fade Sparty until their annual autumnal collapse in November, a month that treats Turkeys better than Spartans. In truth, I feel they will shake the choke, underachieving rap as we get farther along in the Dantonio era. Last year, his first at MSU, they were 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog (2-3 as a DD fav, by the way
). I'll keep riding that wave.So, that's what I got. Three picks for sure, although I will probably add a few more plays as the day goes on. But, I will be at the Big House, so I dont think I will be able to post anything else. I promise a full, first hand account of the experiment up in Ann Arbor.
Good luck to everyone today.....and HAVE A BLAST watching all the awesome action!!!
:toast: :toast: :toast:
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