season.......9-4 (+9.2 units)
2 unit..........3-0 (+6.5 units)
1 unit..........6-4 (+2.7 units)
will add to the list periodically throughout the week as some lines become more favorable, but all in all, doesnt seem like theres a lot of worthwhile games out there this week. played this one early though:
2 units......buffalo (+25) over uconn
this set-up reminds me of a game i played 2 weeks ago (backing wake forest as a home dog over nc state). the logic that applied there can also apply here (although i am aware buffalo is light years away from being wake forest). but the logic is simple, yet effective. over the last handful of years, the uconn program and the nc state program havent really been in a lot of situation where they are EXPECTED to win on the road, and not only do that, but do it CONVINCINGLY. this is an entirely new setup to uconn. normally, as long as they played close they could cover. but now these guys have to take a totally different mindset. and quite honestly- it aint easy. especially when there are big time games on deck. nc state went into wake forest clearly looking ahead to ohio state, and they paid for it. in this uconn/buffalo matchup- there is no doubt in my mind uconn is thinking they have a freebie, and essentially a "bye week". after all, buffalo just got beat by colgate for christsake, at home no less. but check out the scheduling spot for uconn. this is a young uconn team that is coming off an emotional loss to their newfound rival boston college, and next week the huskies play a huge game on the road in virginia tech. i can see the uconn players laughing at the bulls right now. buffalo basically hit rock bottom. it cant get any worse. having said that, (hold all laughter) - it wouldnt surprise me to see buffalo stay within 20 of uconn at all. the scheduling spot is too anti-uconn and the line is clearly overadjusted to reflect uconn as an up and coming team whereas the bulls have been brutal. huskies just not used to this spot. with a big time lookahead, bulls should hang the number
1 unit.....clemson (+4.5) over georgia tech
(added 1 unit on clemson (+5.5), thus a 2 unit play overall)
actually think this is a good spot for clemson to win straight up. last time we saw clemson vs a power school team, they were blasted on opening weekend by georgia 30-0. tigers were pretty damn pathetic. since then theyve rebounded with wins over mutants like furman (28-17) and middle tennessee (37-14) (side note: not a good month for middle tennessee people. blue raiders are 0-3 and prized alum and browns qb kelly holcomb is the worst rated passer in the afc. :thefinger thats for you holcomb- ill still never understand why they gave him couch's job)
aannnnnnyyywaay......back to the clemson game. so clemson is in off two wins over low level teams. why back em here? because i actually think this is still a pretty good team. i like their offense, i think theyre capable of moving the ball on tech (although the jackets have shown to be pretty stingy on defense this year). meanwhile, tech is in off a heartbreaking loss to florida state 14-13 last saturday. jackets, as we know, held a 13-0 lead with 12:00 left in that one. very demoralizing loss for tech, and i think there will be a definite hangover effect in this one. a very good capper once pointed out to me how profitable it can be (in the right spots of course) to look to go against a team coming off a down to the wire finish where they come up on the short end. these kids often let a loss linger longer (hows that for alliteration?) than they should. even though tech may be the better team, i think this spot is great for clemson to go to 3-1 overall.
1 unit......hawaii (+1) over unlv
not a top play by any means, but still like the bows to win this game friday night. both teams pretty solid this year. rebs probably a little stingier on defense whereas jones boys always hold a passing and offensive edge against most teams they play. i just think the usc game is going to help hawaii here. rebels coming in off a big upset win in madison against wisconsin. gotta give credit where credit is due, unlv dominated that game and it certainly wasnt a fluke by any means. that being said- vegas probably should have lost straight up to toledo at home (if not for that late 4th qtr rally) and they inexplicably got blasted by kansas 2 weeks ago. hawaii doesnt have much of a "log" to draw anything from. by that i mean win over appalachian state doesnt say much, but game vs usc was an expected mismatch. it is however worth noting that the bows moved the ball surprisingly well vs one of the top defenses in the country last saturday- including early on when it wasnt garbage time. usc just eventually took control of that game and ran away with it. but i think that game will help chang and the hawaii offense this week. rebs defense should have far more holes in it and i think hawaii gets out of town with a win. i think the real unlv is closer to the team that lost to kansas and almost toledo than the one that beat wisky. small play on hawaii
1 unit.....oregon (+7.5) over michigan
really senseless to type a lot on this game, as anything of relevance or importance has already been covered in numerous threads on this board (as far as this game goes). wolverines looked fu/ckin dynamite vs notre dame, and michigan clearly one of the nations best this year, but i dont think that guarantees a cover here by any means. oregon is a phenomenal home team over the years. way too many points for michigan to lay out west in my opinion. only thing that scares me is michigan is going to be much more physical than oregon, which is what keeps me from making any more than a one unit play. ducks should be in this one the whole way. michigan by 5
2 unit..........3-0 (+6.5 units)
1 unit..........6-4 (+2.7 units)
will add to the list periodically throughout the week as some lines become more favorable, but all in all, doesnt seem like theres a lot of worthwhile games out there this week. played this one early though:
2 units......buffalo (+25) over uconn
this set-up reminds me of a game i played 2 weeks ago (backing wake forest as a home dog over nc state). the logic that applied there can also apply here (although i am aware buffalo is light years away from being wake forest). but the logic is simple, yet effective. over the last handful of years, the uconn program and the nc state program havent really been in a lot of situation where they are EXPECTED to win on the road, and not only do that, but do it CONVINCINGLY. this is an entirely new setup to uconn. normally, as long as they played close they could cover. but now these guys have to take a totally different mindset. and quite honestly- it aint easy. especially when there are big time games on deck. nc state went into wake forest clearly looking ahead to ohio state, and they paid for it. in this uconn/buffalo matchup- there is no doubt in my mind uconn is thinking they have a freebie, and essentially a "bye week". after all, buffalo just got beat by colgate for christsake, at home no less. but check out the scheduling spot for uconn. this is a young uconn team that is coming off an emotional loss to their newfound rival boston college, and next week the huskies play a huge game on the road in virginia tech. i can see the uconn players laughing at the bulls right now. buffalo basically hit rock bottom. it cant get any worse. having said that, (hold all laughter) - it wouldnt surprise me to see buffalo stay within 20 of uconn at all. the scheduling spot is too anti-uconn and the line is clearly overadjusted to reflect uconn as an up and coming team whereas the bulls have been brutal. huskies just not used to this spot. with a big time lookahead, bulls should hang the number
1 unit.....clemson (+4.5) over georgia tech
(added 1 unit on clemson (+5.5), thus a 2 unit play overall)
actually think this is a good spot for clemson to win straight up. last time we saw clemson vs a power school team, they were blasted on opening weekend by georgia 30-0. tigers were pretty damn pathetic. since then theyve rebounded with wins over mutants like furman (28-17) and middle tennessee (37-14) (side note: not a good month for middle tennessee people. blue raiders are 0-3 and prized alum and browns qb kelly holcomb is the worst rated passer in the afc. :thefinger thats for you holcomb- ill still never understand why they gave him couch's job)
aannnnnnyyywaay......back to the clemson game. so clemson is in off two wins over low level teams. why back em here? because i actually think this is still a pretty good team. i like their offense, i think theyre capable of moving the ball on tech (although the jackets have shown to be pretty stingy on defense this year). meanwhile, tech is in off a heartbreaking loss to florida state 14-13 last saturday. jackets, as we know, held a 13-0 lead with 12:00 left in that one. very demoralizing loss for tech, and i think there will be a definite hangover effect in this one. a very good capper once pointed out to me how profitable it can be (in the right spots of course) to look to go against a team coming off a down to the wire finish where they come up on the short end. these kids often let a loss linger longer (hows that for alliteration?) than they should. even though tech may be the better team, i think this spot is great for clemson to go to 3-1 overall.
1 unit......hawaii (+1) over unlv
not a top play by any means, but still like the bows to win this game friday night. both teams pretty solid this year. rebs probably a little stingier on defense whereas jones boys always hold a passing and offensive edge against most teams they play. i just think the usc game is going to help hawaii here. rebels coming in off a big upset win in madison against wisconsin. gotta give credit where credit is due, unlv dominated that game and it certainly wasnt a fluke by any means. that being said- vegas probably should have lost straight up to toledo at home (if not for that late 4th qtr rally) and they inexplicably got blasted by kansas 2 weeks ago. hawaii doesnt have much of a "log" to draw anything from. by that i mean win over appalachian state doesnt say much, but game vs usc was an expected mismatch. it is however worth noting that the bows moved the ball surprisingly well vs one of the top defenses in the country last saturday- including early on when it wasnt garbage time. usc just eventually took control of that game and ran away with it. but i think that game will help chang and the hawaii offense this week. rebs defense should have far more holes in it and i think hawaii gets out of town with a win. i think the real unlv is closer to the team that lost to kansas and almost toledo than the one that beat wisky. small play on hawaii
1 unit.....oregon (+7.5) over michigan
really senseless to type a lot on this game, as anything of relevance or importance has already been covered in numerous threads on this board (as far as this game goes). wolverines looked fu/ckin dynamite vs notre dame, and michigan clearly one of the nations best this year, but i dont think that guarantees a cover here by any means. oregon is a phenomenal home team over the years. way too many points for michigan to lay out west in my opinion. only thing that scares me is michigan is going to be much more physical than oregon, which is what keeps me from making any more than a one unit play. ducks should be in this one the whole way. michigan by 5
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