Saturday August 11th

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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Saturday August 11th 2007

yesterday: 9-3 +11.07
August: 55-43 +18.15
ml 27-20 +6.55
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 13-11 +0.02
parlays 10-11 +6.89
system picks 10-7 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 16-14 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

lad 54% (-109)+1
Cin 51 (+101)+1
Hou 51 (-124)-5
atl 51 (+121)+5
Mets 62 (-164)-1
cubs 53 (-104)+2
Sf 66 (-210)-2 RL 51 (+107)+2
Ariz 69 (-220)even RL 56 (+100)+6
Det 55 (-119)even
bost 64 (Beckett-Burres)
nyy 59 (-114)+5
seat 55 (-124)-1
tor 57 (-119)+2
tb 58 (+101)+8
Laa 67 (-209)-1 RL 53 (+105)+4

system totals

sd@Cin ov10 66% (-115)+12 --ump Vanover is even
atl@Phil ov11 68 (-115)+14 --Wegner is an acceptable OVER-ump
wash@Ariz un8.5 69 (-125)+13 --ump Scott is even
oak@Det un8 65 (+105)+16 --Carlson is an acceptable UNDER-ump
nyy@Clev ov10 65 (-120)+10 --Schieber is a good OVER-ump
tb@Tex ov11 75 (+118)+29 --fvck?Eddings umping; I can't touch an over with him


Yesterday was much more enjoyable than Thursday, where inning after relentless inning my teams (Twins, Phillies, Padres, schlameezle, schlamazle?) just refused to score. Friday was much better, nailing my 2 big ones (Jays,Yanks) and going 5-1 on the moneyline overall. Only 1-1 on totals but that flippin' Baltimore game was 1-0 quite late before the bullpens cough-cough? Made money on 3 out of 4 of my IF plays; they're starting to work good for me; they're ideal when you've got lots of opinions, as I often do. One day of punishment then a nice comeback day. Wonder what tomorrow holds?I really don't like the board much?

No system picks but some value with Braves (greatly as an Eaton fade), Yankees (Byrd won't do it again?Yankees over5 -115 is a possible play for me?again...) and D'Rays (Jackson can be sorta decent?same as Rangers McCarthy yesterday, while Rangers Rheinecker is massive fade material, especially against a team that can hit lefties and is hitting fairly well lately?sorta like Sonnanstine yesterday (ie fade material)). I might consider the D'Backs and Angels runline, as they seem to be the 2 most likely winners Saturday, or maybe the Giants on a parlay with one of the two?kinda need the prices too come down some.

Totals I need to consider further. The highest rated system call has a horrific umpire going for an over-call (Doug Eddings); can't touch this. Others I might comment on if I find any groovy angles.

GL
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

braves over5.5 +100 (+17)hoppy

Phillies ov5.5 -130 (+14)Cormier's a wildcard

pitt un3.5 -145 (-12)could be tough with San Fran's pen returning to crappy form lately

nats un3.5 -140 (-16)best under-bet, for team totals; Webb hasn't allowed a run over his past 3 starts (Nats were a 5! yesterday, but -150 under so I just had them buried on IF's)

oak un4 -120 (-9)system is recognizing Verlander's struggles lately--as I'm telling it to--but still thinks the A's will play low today; yesterday's result kinda makes this an impossible play, however

yankees over5 -115 (+12)perpetually the best-looking over team total

KC un4.5 -105 (-9)Royals only 1 run in each of their past 2, both at home; McGowan one of several hot Jays SP's

tb over5.5 +100 (+17)Rheinecker's career BAA is just shy of .350, and he likes to serve up homers, too; D'Rays OPS vs L over .800; Eddings, umping, is holding me back here; I'm on the D'Rays

twins un3.5 -145 (-10)twins scoring woes continue--they haven't been able to bust a 3.5 in 8 of their last 9 contests...that's all of August...the only over they scored 11 at KC...with Santana pitching...when they didn't really need it:rolleyes:
--Angels runline pays better and you don't (probably) have to pray as much
--Darling's a bit of an over-ump, too, so I won't play an under 3.5 on the visitor...no way


That's the biggest numbers.
A few +6's (Reds,Mets,Rangers).
D'Backs are -6, facing a possibly-good lefty.

I'm on the Braves over and will probably add the Yankees over, in some way, shape of form.
D'Rays over if I have the balls to go against Eddings.

:SIB
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2001
8,050
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Toronto
The negroes in the forest brightly feathered
They're saying, "forget the night...
Live with us in forests of azure
Out here on the perimeter there are no stars
Out here we is stoned...imacculate!


(The Doors, The WASP)

:weed:
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
8,050
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Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

yankees -114 2.28/2
blue jays -119 2.38/2
devil rays +101 2/2.02

atl@Phil ov11 -115 0.92/0.8
braves over5.5 +100 1/1
oak@Det un8 +108 0.8/0.86

2-teamer (best home rebound chances)
--Astros ml
--Tigers ml
+226
0.5/1.13

2-teamer (high calls "B")
--Giants ml
--D'Backs ml
+118
0.6/0.71

2-teamer (high calls "A")
--D'Backs ml
--Angels ml
+116
0.86/1

10-team IF bet
1.braves 0.6/0.66
2.Giants -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.yankees 0.6/0.5
4.d'rays over5.5 0.51/0.51
5.nationals under3.5 1.05/0.75
6.a's under4 0.84/0.7
7.blue jays 1.25/1
8.Mets over4.5 1.2/1
9.Angels -1.5 1.1/1
10.EskimOs -5.5 1.1/1
0.6 to win max.7.65

10-team IF bet
1.D'Backs -1.5 0.8/0.7
2.blue jays 0.62/0.5
3.braves over5.5 0.5/0.5
4.Tigers -1.5 0.5/0.85
5.yankees over5 0.8/0.7
6.devil rays 1.05/1
7.Angels -1.5 1/1
8.Astros 1.24/1
9.dodgers 1.1/1
10.Mets -1.5 0.8/1
0.8 to win max.8.25

10-team IF bet
1.nationals under3.5 0.7/0.5
2.Astros -1.5 0.5/0.85
3.devil rays 0.63/0.6
4.atl@Phil ov11 0.92/0.8
5.blue jays 0.75/0.6
6.Giants -1.5 1/1.05
7.yankees 1.2/1
8.Angels -1.5 1/1
9.Reds 1.05/1
10.a's@Det un8 1/1
0.7 to win max.8.4

10-team IF bet
1.Tigers -1.5 0.5/0.85
2.Angels -1.5 0.55/0.5
3.blue jays 0.75/0.6
4.D'Backs -1.5 0.8/0.7
5.braves over5.5 0.65/0.65
6.yankees 1.2/1
7.devil rays 1.05/1
8.Astros -1.5 0.8/1.36
9.Giants -1.5 1/1.05
10.dodgers 1.1/1
0.5 to win max.8.71

9-team IF bet
1.yankees over5 0.8/0.7
2.D'Backs -1.5 0.69/0.6
3.devil rays 0.52/0.5
4.Angels -1.5 0.77/0.7
5.Tigers 1.25/1
6.Astros 1.24/1
7.blue jays 1.25/1
8.atl@Phil ov11 1.15/1
9.Giants 2.2/1
0.8 to win max.7.5

11-team IF bet
1.Angels -1.5 0.6/0.6
2.yankees 0.6/0.5
3.dodgers 0.55/0.5
4.Reds 0.52/0.5
5.Giants -1.5 0.6/0.63
6.blue jays 0.62/0.5
7.devil rays 1.05/1
8.Astros -1.5 1/1.7
9.atl@Phil ov11 0.92/0.8
10.Tigers 1.5/1.2
11.cubs 0.88/0.8
0.6 to win max.8.73


My good work with the IF plays, yesterday, has me going a little bit crazy today. If I can hit at least 2 of my 3 sides then everything else should fall into place okay?I hope?

Time will tell.
See you in the aftermath.

GL
 
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