Saturday August 4th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday August 4th 2007

yesterday: 9-6 +3.2
August: 11-12 -2.84
ml 4-6 -5.29
rl 2-0 +2.19
totals 3-4 -2.2
parlays 2-2 +2.46
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 2-4 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1 yesterday; 1-6 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Atl 61% (-184)-4
mets 62 (+102)+12
Fla 60 (-151)-1
Pitt 54 (-130)-3
phil 63 (-135)+5
Wash 53 (-111)even
Sd 53 (-131)-4
Lad 59 (-171)-5
Tor 66 (-174)+2?IE says that Loe has been put on the DL, therefore?
Tor 64 (Marcum-Wood)
Nyy 74 (-232)+4 RL 61 (-120)+6
laa 62 (-128)+5
Det 53 (-145)-7 cws 47 (+137)+4
Tb 65 (-134)+7 RL 50 (+158)+11
Min 60 (-118)+5
bost 61 (-138)+3

system totals

col@Atl un9.5 80% (-115)+26 --ump Hallion is even
phil@Mil ov8.5 69 (-115)+15 --ump Fletcher is a decent OVER-ump (low K%)
clev@Min un9.5 71 (-114)+17 --ump Kulpa is even


Hit some late plays to actually pull off a plus. Good stuff; August was looking pretty grim, even when I took Thursday off. Finally nailed another system pick, and also got off the schneid for system totals. The Force was with me. Lookin' to start a streak?

Mets and D'Rays are system picks for Saturday. Also some value with Phillies, Yanks RL, Angels and Twins. My totals have been trash for about 5 weeks now so I won't be too anxious to make much noice there; For What It's Worth (There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear.), I do like both the Braves and Twins contests to play under.

Will post plays and anything interesting I find as tomorrow becomes today.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

possible team totals
(w/relative system number; - for unders, etc.)

col un4.5 -145 (-12)
Atl un5 -105 (-5)
Marlins ov5 -110 (+9)
phil ov4.5 -130 (+12)I like this one
tex un4.5 -145 (-11)will be a push if you play with "Loe must start"...silly, but them's the rules
Yanks ov6 -120 (+15)seems perpetually safe, especially against a righty
A's un4 -135 (-12)
Tigers un5 -155 (-5)Tigers bats have gone cold; still too risky at this price
O's un4.5 -150 (-8)D'Rays bullpen makes this one iffy; too pricey...moneyline for me
D'Rays ov5 +130 (+5)D'Rays OPS 60 points higher vs lefties than righties
clev un4.5 -105 (-8)Garza looks real sharp; Twins pen is rock-solid
Min un5 -140 (-5)Twins haven't scored 6 in their past 11 games; Laffey has been great at Triple-A but this MLdebut should be a "feel-out" game for bettors
M's un4 -125 (-9)Dice-K was mediocre, then crappy, then great in his 3 vs M's this year; the "great" one was his only start at Safeco--he's been much better on the road than at Fenway


I'll consider these a little further. Most of the time, it seems, there are better betting options on the moneyline or runline.
Phillies over looks best to me, of the bunch.
MLB.com says that Suppan is pitching Sunday, and that Bush is starting Saturday, so I'm a little confused. I'd play the Phillies, and maybe the team total, with either Brewers starter; I suggest that you play Hamels only MUST START if you try the Phillies as it could be Suppan, or it might be Bush.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(mets,D'Rays)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

mets 62% (+102)+12

briefly:
--Mets with a decent edge pitching
--Mets a small edge at the plate despite no Beltran
--Mets OPS vs L .794
--Cubs OPS vs R .750
--Mets OPS last 7 days .819
--Cubs OPS last 7 days .804
--Mets have won 3 straight; 6-4 past 10
--Cubs have lost 2 straight; 5-5 past 10

62 x 1.02 = 63.24
38 x -1.....= -38
-----------------------------
....................25.24%


That's sweet.
Cubs have chilled a little, as their 5-5 the past 10 attests, while the Mets bats have been picking up the slack in the absence of Beltran.
I greatly prefer Maine to Lilly.
Definitely worthwhile.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

D'Rays 65% (-134)+7

briefly:
--D'Rays with the edge pitching; Kazmir has been solid lately
--D'Rays OPS vs L .804
--O's OPS vs L .747
--D'Rays OPS last 7 days .812
--O's OPS last 7 days .832 (O's hitting .250 last 10 vs L while D'Rays hitting .271 last 10 vs L)

-134 is 74.6 cents on the dollar
65 x 0.746 = 48.49
35 x -1......= -35
-------------------------------
....................13.49%


Not bad for a 65% probability, but Mets ROI is much higher:
Mets ROI 11.75 points higher or
11.75/13.49%=
87% higher with an
3/35%=
8% greater risk.

Mets play looks quite a bit better by this assessment.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.

PLAYS

system picks

mets +102 2.5/2.55
D'Rays -134 2.68/2

other picks

phillies -135 1.35/1 (Hamels)
Jays -174 1.4/0.8 (Marcum)
Nyy -1.5 -120 1.8/1.5
angels -128 1/0.78
Twins -118 1.41/1.2
bosox -138 1.38/1

totals

col@Atl un9.5 -115 1.15/1
clev@Min un9.5 -114 1.14/1

2-teamer (this combo worked yesterday)
--Jays ml (Marcum)
--Yanks ml
+125
0.8/1

10-team IF bet
1.phillies -1.5 0.5/0.6
2.clev@Min un9.5 0.6/0.5
3.mets 0.52/0.5
4.col@Atl un9.5 0.65/0.5
5.Marlins over 5 0.55/0.5
6.D'Rays -1.5 0.6/0.9
7.bosox -1.5 0.5/0.55
8.angels 1.35/1
9.Padres 1.35/1
10.chisox 1/1.3
0.5 to win max.7.35

9-team IF bet
1.D'Rays -1.5 0.5/0.75
2.Nyy -1.5 0.62/0.5
3.angels over 4 0.55/0.5
4.Twins 0.75/0.6
5.phillies over 4.5 0.65/0.5
6.Marlins -1.5 0.75/1.05
7.rockies 0.75/1.2
8.mets 1.05/1
9.chisox 1/1.3
0.5 to win max.7.4


Brewers are tough on lefties but they've been in a bit of funk at the plate for several weeks now; playing it Hamels, only, must start as Suppan is listed but there's a chance that Bush starts here. Playing the Jays the same way, with Marcum, as Wood is apparently getting the call for this one; if you saw IE's post on the Rangers' Loe then you're aware that Wood just tossed 81 pitches over 8 innings during a triple-A start on Wednesday?that's only 2 days rest so I don't know what the Rangers are doing here; I'm expecting the adjusted line to bring my profit down but I'm certainly expecting such profit to be forthcoming. Twins bats have been in a funk for a few weeks now, but I'm hoping that they can win in a low-scoring contest; my post on "Indians Laffey?", now buried about 20 or 30 posts deep, has a link to a page which contains all of his minor league stats. Hoping to nail both system picks today to bring them to .500 for August; they've hit at over 60% every month, so far, so a quick recovery to their bad start, this month, is expected?if not today then within the following week.

I've 'capped Sunday so here' a quick look. Lots of 50's coming but I'm likely posting up to 5 games in the 60's or higher. Tigers are giving Tata another go after his strong performance last time out; I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers lose again today, but this series closer on Sunday should be all Tigers as they'll be facing a starter who just cannot make it in the Bigs; former 1st-rounder Gavin Floyd has an era over 10 with opponent's hitting .385 off of him?check out his stats from previous years and you can see that this horrible work has been a real trend for him; Tata starting may keep the line reasonable?this one will be a system pick in the -150 range. Yanks have beaten on Meche before and I'll ride the runline with them and hope that Mussina can net his 3rd straight W there. McCarthy's last game against the Jays, at home back in May, was a great one, but the Jays got to him pretty good in an earlier start at the Rogers Centre; line will probably be ugly, but if the Jays can put up 5 or more today?likely seeing the Rangers bullpen for several innings?then I might take a chance on the runline; McGowan's era over his past 3 starts was 1.77. Orioles (Bedard-Sonnanstine) look real good for Sunday; I have no clue what kind of line to expect but this one will be a system pick at up to -150. Bosox Beckett has already shut down the M's once this season while the M's Batista has poor career numbers vs the Sox; probably will be too pricey for any value but if they open it near -150 then I'll be a player; M's produce today like they did yesterday and I'll be less interested. Everything else will be in the 50's, but I might bite on a good line for the Pirates (Gorzelanny-Arroyo?Reds are pathetic against lefties), the Cards (Wainwright-Chico), the Giants (Lowry-Germano), the D'Backs (Webb-Penny), the Mets (Glavine-Marquis), the Indians (Carmona-Baker) or the A's (Haren-Lackey).

For Sunday's totals, overs seem likely in Florida (Sampson-Olsen), Milwaukee (Eaton-Suppan?...Eaton vs anybody sounds like an over), and maybe New York. Some very possible unders should appear to: possibly in Pittsburgh, maybe in Washington, maybe in San Diego (as always), extremely likely in Los Angeles (we'll see a 7 for this Webb-Penny matchup?Penny hasn't been too dominant his last couple of goes but if there's a decent umpire going then I'll give it a shot), also extremely likely in Oakland (again, probably a 7) and possible in Seattle, though if the Sox score a bunch today then I think the Sunday under might be foolish.

Very curious to see what kind of lines they give us for Sunday.
I'm hoping to enter it with a 2-day winning streak under my belt, preferrably after turning my August minus into an August plus. Just need a break or two; again, I'm not laying that much juice today.

Time for some sleep.
I want to be up in time for the Mets game.
GL

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Good luck to you, and thanks for sharing your work with us Mad(high)jackers. Maybe high Madjackoffs in some cases....

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks DoMyDermBest.
appreciate it.

Jeez...just woke up and tuned into the Mets game.:flush:
I swear, I tune in and it's bottom of the 3rd with 2 outs, score tied 0-0; all of the sudden Maine can't get a 3rd out...hit batsmen to score a run, several bases-loaded walks to score a run...what a freakin' tool Maine can be when he puts his mind to it.:mj16:

Looks like that system pick is toast.
At least the Yanks and Jays started the day off right for me...still a chance to make some coin as I've got night action, too.

Sorry if you tailed the Mets.
I thought the Mets would be doing a better number on Lilly.:com: