Saturday Bowls

[Smitty]

i feel like va tech last night may be the worst bet i ever made that actually won. i don't know if i've ever seen less effort on the football field.

armed forces bowl

rice (+2) 2 units. this is sad, but i really love rice today. the owls will be fired up for their first bowl game in 4 years. they won their last 4 games to get here. meanwhile, this is the worst air force team we've seen in a while.
both teams rely on the ground game and neither team can stop the run. i see two major differences. 1) rice has a semblance of a passing game. and 2) turnovers. air force lost 19 fumbles this year. only 4 teams lost more. rice recovered 14 fumbles this year.

 

[Smitty]

Fight Hunger Bowl

Fight Hunger Bowl

FIGHT!! FIGHT!! FIIIIIIIIGHT HUNGER!! is what i imagine the cheerleaders will be chanting on the sidelines.

my recommendation is to not bet this game. that said, i promised a side on every game, so....

navy (+14) 1 unit. just like air force, this is the worst navy team we've seen in a while. the fact that they won 8 games is a testament to a very weak schedule. here's the teams they beat:

VMI
air force
central michigan
indiana
east carolina
florida atlantic
texas st
army

sure, 3 of those teams made bowl games, but that's hardly a powerful lineup.

on the other side, i'll go out on a limb and say arizona st cared a lot more about beating arizona in their last game of the season than they will care about this game. so they may not be as focused on getting ready for the option as they should be.

also, arizona st is coached by a man in his first year with the school. and by now most of us know how that has worked out for most teams. i believe first year coaches are 0-4 ATS this bowl season.

 

[Smitty]

Pinstripe Bowl

Pinstripe Bowl

syracuse (+3.5) 2 units. this one is all about motivation. after starting 5-0, there's no way wvu was looking forward to playing 12/29 in the bronx. as we all know, they promptly lost their next 5 games. they then eked out a win over iowa state and blew out kansas to finish the season. very impressive. syracuse, on the other hand, won and covered 5 of their last 6 games to get here.

syracuse also has the confidence of beating wvu each of the last two seasons.

i think the story of this game will be the same as during the regular season - wvu's porous defense is going to cost them.

 

[Smitty]

Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl

texas (+3.5) 1 unit. i'm going to regret this play. texas is mediocre at best, mack brown HAS to be on his way out after this game, and why the hell would texas care about this game? on the other side, oregon st bounced back from 2 straight losing seasons to have a very, very good year. i can't come up with a single good reason to take texas today. which is precisely why i'm doing it. it seems WAY too easy to take oregon st.

 

[Smitty]

B-Dubs Bowl

B-Dubs Bowl

tcu (-2) 2 units. after a year in the big 12, i think tcu will be happy to get into an old fashioned slugfest. this will be just like the rose bowl from 2 years ago, when tcu beat wisconsin 21-19. since taking over from pachall, boykin has looked ok in stretches and bad in others. on the other side, maxwell has not been very good. he's done a terrible job handling pressure all year. i look for tcu to apply a lot of pressure, which will create INTs. tcu was 3rd in the country this year, picking off 21 passes. big defensive struggle today, but i like tcu to put up just enough points to get the win.

under (40.5) 2 units. as long as the TOs don't lead to too many easy scores, we won't see many points in this game.

 

[capping-guru]

I am with you on each play but Texas. Hope we have one heck of a profitable day today! GL:0074

 

[Smitty]

thanks, cg. if i wasn't a degenerate who felt obligated to wager on every bowl game, no way would i play the alamo bowl. everything screams that oregon state is the correct play. i took the beavers in the 2 bowl pools i'm in. and yet i have one of those strange feelings that somehow texas wins the game.

after va tech last night, i feel like i'm playing with house money. i actually turned the game off early in the 3rd quarter when i saw that va tech wasn't playing any harder than they did in the first half. i checked the score almost 90 minutes later and saw it was tied with 19 seconds left. unreal.

well, let's win some money today. if i hit everything but texas, i'll be very happy. :toast: