saturday december 6th college football plays........

[gman2]

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4 unit........0-1 (-4.4 units)
3 unit........1-0 (+3.0 units)
2 unit.......18-10 (+16.18 units)
1 uint.......29-27 (+1.61 units)
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ytd..........48-38 (+16.39 units)
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played these two for saturday:

1 unit.....kansas state (+610 @pinnacle) over oklahoma
1 unit.....hawaii/boise state over 71
1 unit.....hawaii/boise state over 69
1 unit.....kansas state (+14) over oklahoma (add)

probably gonna regret it, but ended up leaving out syracuse moneyline. i really think they win that game vs notre dame, but that rutgers loss was devastating for them. too many variables make me uneasy about backing syracuse. if they come out ready to play, may consider em at 1/2, but passing for now.

as for the other two:

dont feel like kansas state is as long a shot as the line (+610) would indicate. oklahoma obviously as dominant a team as youll see, but they gotta play the game. okie not gonna win just by showing up. worth noting that kansas state/okie havent met very often recently, but when they have, wildcats have more than held their own. kstate peaking at the right time of the season. everyone has penciled okie in as an undefeated national champ. i think ksu can more than hang. ive got the utmost respect for stoops in a big game (clearly the premier big game coach in all of football, both ncaa and nfl). even if okie wins 42-7, ill make this bet and feel like ive got a realistic shot. college sports are just wacky that way

boise/hawaii total........not a big over guy, but in this case-- i dont think they can set the total high enough (a la texas tech totals). obviously with a total of 71, not much room for error, but if either of these two teams play remotely close to their offensive capabilities, they could be trading scores all night long. hawaii taking a step down in class from last week. bows still dropped 30+ on an sec defense. dont care what the polls say, hawaii going from bama last week to boise this week is a step down in class. totally different style of football. boise far less physical (and much more finesse) that the tide. hawaii defense sure as hell hasnt been stopping anyone lately. broncos have ripped apart their last few foes. tough to swallow that a 41-28 game would be a loser for me, but i really expect this game to be played at an obscene pace.

 

[Master Capper]

you may not regret leaving Cuse off, there could be some suspensions for a altercation after the game with Rutger's fans.

 

[professor]

I love the over in the Boise State game as well as the over in the LSU/UGA game. The tigers and dawgs will put up a combined 6 td's at least.

 

[boilermaker]

Another thing you got to like taking the over is that Boise State is not shy about running up the score when they get a chance to.

 

[gman2]

slap the joe public sticker on me.

added 1 unit to the boise state over, this time over 69 after the line move. just dont see it any other way.

 

[gman2]

was hoping to find a 14.5 somehow, but it seems the sharper books are holding strong on their 14 and even shading some juice on kansas state. im very content to have kansas state points/moneyline and boise/hawaii over the total as my only 2 games right now.

add: 1 unit....kansas state (+14) over oklahoma

gl all

 

[loophole]

i think books know that, if they went to 14- in this game, there would be a stampede of wiseguys middling the game.

 

[gman2]

loophole:

i know exactly what you mean. also think theres a reason they opened (or are at least holding strong) just under the key number (lots of 13.5s instead of 14s). okies as good a team as youll ever see but for whatever reason, snyder has played stoops tough recently and kansas state doesnt seem to get intimated when they play oklahoma (a la texas)

 

[gman2]

id be a moron if i didnt play back something on oklahoma to go for the big 12 championship trifecta.

1 unit....oklahoma 2h (-9.5)

kansas state playing great and i still think they get it outright. just gotta try this 2h bet -- as it opens a middle and more or less gives me a free moneyline shot

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

since it appears that my play is toast.....i will be giving u a root on ur money line play.....wish i had some of it.....gl

 

[NYCDUDE]

Hopefully you cant hit both sides in the KSU and Oklahoma game which should help you get out of the hole after the Bowling Green debacle, wish you luck.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Holy shit, what a live Moneyline to be sitting on.

I disagree with the following statement:
"id be a moron if i didnt play back something on oklahoma to go for the big 12 championship trifecta."

I take the stance that if you don't like the risk, you can keep your $ in a savings account with a 2% return.

Hope the Purple Power holds on for you.

 

[gman2]

chucky:

just feel like playing oklahoma back for the 2h accomplishes two things:

1) pays for my 1 unit on the kansas state moneyline

2) opens up a window where i can hit all 3 if kansas state wins by 1,2,3, or 4 points

if okie would have been down 10 or 7 at half, 2h line would have probably been more or less "pick the SU winner". if that was the case, would probably have just let it ride on ksu

but with a realistic window, felt id be doing myself a disservice if i didnt take okie for the 2h.

 

[Sam]

G, i see you have the Hawaii over, any reason line is going down?
you still like the over, i do, but why the downward movement?

 

[gman2]

sam:

ive been hearing theres some rain in the area. personally, that doesnt bother me too much. those stadiums with the new field-turf dont become too affected by rain. certainly not the ideal forecast, but that doesnt bother me.

line did drop a little earlier in the week. normally id respect the line move, but texas tech had a lot of totals drop in the days prior to their games this yr and a lot of those gms still ripped apart the total. anytime you get a total up over 70, there probably is gonna be some sharper money hitting the under. its a lot of points, and im normally an under player, but this is a gm where i dont think they can set the total high enough

 

[Sam]

thanks G, i think corners slip and we get wide open TD'S

 

[Nole]

Great call gman on the ML!

Awesome!

With all this happening tonight, God knows where my Noles are going. :shrug:

nole

 

[vinnie]

Great call on ml they sure are sweet

 

[gardenweasel]

always

always

happy to bump a deserving card...i think the overs look very promising also(24-14 at the half).....

nice job today...

 

[gman2]

weasel/vinnie/nole:

thank you. very much appreciate the good words.

nole- no clue where fsu is headed, but i think theyll be a live team in the bowls. just my opinion.

hell, cuse moneyline woulda been icing on the cake

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updated
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4 unit...........0-1 (-4.4 units)
3 unit...........1-1 (-0.3 units)
2 unit...........19-10 (+18.18 units)
1 unit...........31-28 (+7.6 units)
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ytd...............52-40 (+21.09 units)
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