Saturday games

[Nickelback]

Been busy the last two days, but here's what I'm playing for now. . . if you want an explanation, please let me know as I'm running short on time:

Nova VERY Big laying 1 over UConn
Clemson Big laying 1 over North Carolina
Wisky Very Big laying 5 over Indy
Texas Tech Big laying 1 over OU
Detroit Big laying 1 over Butler
Purdue Big laying 1 over Illinois
Oregon State +3 over Oregon
Michigan laying 3.5 over Ohio State

Anybody else notice the trend on my plays

:shrug:

GL all! Gotta like the home teams today!

 

[Send it in]

Home teams laying between 1 and 5 pts. Any reasoning for Nova and Clemson? If you have time.

 

[Nickelback]

Sorry Send it In,

A little late replying, but both teams are playing opponents that are coming off recent wins on ESPN games. . . think both lines looked inviting to take the road teams in both games and I think most of the time, both would be sent home with a loss.

Also, both home teams are a lot less high profile than UConn and North Carolina!

 

[gman2]

was all set to play detroit big as well. but then decided to pass after butler lost the other night. was hoping butler would be in off a win. hope you hit it. titans still probably the right side but the dynamics have changed a little.

gl

 

[kickserv]

Thanks Nickel for Wisc..........I went really big on that one

phew........thanks buddy


Now I need Texas Tech -1.5.....!!!!!!


(by the way.....take the Leafs in NHL tonight.....great price!)

 

[kickserv]

also great call on Vill............covered by a lot........nice job...you are the man

(and by the way....when I said take the Leafs tonight....I meant MoneyLine ...I got em at -103.....great price!!)


Good luck on rest of your games.........especially Texas Tech

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks kickserv. . . hopefully we continue to have a good day. . .

Adding Temple pk big over NC State. . . I was leaning to Temple anyways, but with Volfan making it a 5* play, its now a big play for me.

 

[genosays]

Don't understand Texas Tech being favored over OU ..... guess because of the revenge angle from earlier season game where Tech got screwed by the clock snafu?? To me Oklahoma far superior and will win this game by 6-8 points. Not bashing, just my opinion. Good luck and nice call on Wisky.

 

[kickserv]

geez ya got a lot of games today huh

win em all


but I'm gonna lay off any more NCAA.......have lots of money on tonights NHL plays.......especially the Leafs......not like other guys here...........I have a budget ......just can't keep throwing money down ya know


Go Leafs........Go Texas Tech


but don't worry..........the Temple game is on TV here.......I'll cheer for ya

FWIW........I had some college tennis battles with this prick from NCstate.........always hated that school because of that guy.....so I always hope NCstate losses in every sport ........how about that for a hot tip:lol: :lol:

 

[Nickelback]

LOL. . . I may have to double my bet after that kind of tip

 

[cutigerdoc]

Great call on my Tigers.....I didn't have the heart since I usually bring them bad luck when I'm with 'em.

 

[Nickelback]

Goneosays,

I don't consider that bashing at all. . . I like constructive criticism. . . reason I didn't make this a very big play is that I agree with in that OU being the better team on a neutral court. . . but the line does look funny as you said and this happens to be a system play. Automatic play for me.

Gl with OU

 

[azjeff]

system play?

system play?

nickel.. what is a system play? how do you obtain them?

 

[wcb4]

looks to be a solid start-

looks to be a solid start-

got in a little late, but am with you on Mich and TTU-thanks for the plays.

 

[Nickelback]

Azjeff,

System plays are those where a specific scenerio occurs during a given season and often multiple times as the system that I am about to explain. There really isn't a place to get them except for boards like these and maybe pay services, but you don't need a pay service when you have a forum like this!

Here's the one scenerio that I play almost blind every time it comes up:

Play an unranked home favorite over a ranked road dog. Others already know the story here, but I'll explain it again for those who don't know it:

You are basically betting that Vegas knows better than those who vote in the polls. The line usually looks funny with the ranked team getting points but there's a reason why Vegas made the unranked home team the favorite. I don't know the exact numbers, but this system usually hits 2 out of every 3 times it comes up. Might be a little higher, might be a little lower but its around that percentage.

There are variations to this of course, another capper mentioned earlier this year that he plays an unranked favorite over a ranked dog every time it comes up, not just when the unranked team is playing at home. Another (Volfan I believe) indicated that he usually plays it when the lower ranked team is a favorite at home over a higher ranked road team (ie if #3 Kentucky was a 5 point favorite at home over #1 ranked Arizona, the play would be Kentucky).

It has also been noted that this system usually is less profitable around this time of the year. . . but I still believe it hits over 50% of the time so basically pick your spots and you should be able to come up on the winning end most of the time

 

[jr11]

great day going so far for you too. good job.

jr11

 

[azjeff]

Nickel... thanks for your response

 

[kickserv]

nice job Nickelback...............and hey gotta love my hot tip....told ya NC State would lose

(and you better have put some cash on Leafs....THEY WIN