Saturday July 21st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday July 21st 2007

yesterday: 5-9 +0.24
July: 82-86 +0.29
ml 48-34 +8.25
rl 3-5 -0.13
totals 16-20 -6.39
parlays 15-27 -1.44
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 23-13 in July (64%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-2 yesterday; 25-30 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 67% (-165)+4 RL 53 (+120)+7
col 56 (-110)+3
Lad 63 (-139)+4
cin 51 (+132)+7
sf 53 (+128)+9
Atl 57 (-130)even
hou 57 (-111)+4
Sd 56 (-122)+1
(1)Nyy 57 (-218)-12 tb 43 (+200)+9
(2)Nyy 65 (-181)even
seat 51 (+110)+3
Bost 70 (-169)+7 RL 57 (+116)+10
Det 77 (-250)+5 RL 65 (-124)+9
laa 57 (-114)+3
clev 52 (-134)-6 Tex 48 (+126)+3
Oak 66 (-201)-1 RL 50 (+102)even

system totals

mets@Lad un8.5 65% (-103)+14 --ump Cooper is even
cin@Fla ov9.5 65 (-125)+9 --ump Hoye is a decent OVER-ump
(1)tb@Nyy ov11 73 (-105)+21 --ump Diaz a bit of an under-ump; should penalize this one some but will still be >65% so it stays


That under at Ameriquest really burned my ass; I can't be much more confident on a total than I was for that one, so I think my totals risks are going to be small for a while. I'm now up some on the moneyline this month but my total results are negating that plus.
Bosox saved me from obvlivion, at least, but I think I'll back off the Yanks (again) as they appear to be LOSERS again; a couple of fairly soft righties that they haven't been able to hit the past couple of days. Mets winning the late one actually lets me keep my head above water; had them straight and also live on a couple of IF bets. Two straight winning days but they've been kind of inconsequential?would be nice if I could pick up a 5-spot now and again?for Saturday I think that's going to be tricky?

I'm again not too impressed with today's board, but I'm considering the Cubs, Reds, Giants, Bosox and Tigers for Saturday. Maybe the totals in Florida and New York. I've got to plan Saturday carefully as dogs were really barking on Friday (nice work, Riskbreaker). Verlander-De La Rosa heavily favours the Tigers (I dropped the call TO 77% FROM an original 80% call due to them getting pasted in the opener); Tigers are 4-0 after a loss over their past 4 losses, dating back to the second last week of June (they just haven't been losing much at all). Bosox should get the W Saturday as well, and I might try a parlay with Tigers-Bosox as they're the 2 high calls; I just didn't enjoy losing all 3 of my Bosox parlays yesterday (had them with Brewers (L), Tigers (L), and Yankees (L)). Can't seem to get on a roll this month.

Will post plays by sunrise.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I can't bear to watch the pathetic Mets offense, right now...

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Bosox & RL, Tigers & RL)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Bosox 70% (-169)+7

briefly:
--Bosox big edge to SP
--Bosox big BP edge
--Gabbard coming off a solid start and he was great in 1 vs Chisox last year
--Danks has looked horrible his past 2
--Bosox a big edge at the plate

-169 is 59.2 cents otd
70 x 0.592 = 41.44
30 x -1......= -30
---------------------------------
...................11.44%


Fairly low. How about the runline...

Bosox -1.5 57% (+116)+10

57 x 1.16 = 66.12
43 x -1.....= -43
------------------------------
..................23.12%


Better.
An increase of 11.68 or
11.68/11.44%=
a 102% increase in ROI with
13/30%=
a 43% increase in risk.

A fair trade-off. Bosox OPS vs lefties about 30 points higher than against righties, so they've got a good chance to score more than 5 in this one, methinks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Tigers 77% (-245)+5 (barely a system pick...might not make 10% here)

briefly:
--Tigers with a large edge at SP (Verlander, career, is 5-0 (in 6) with a 1.58 era vs Royals)
--Tigers a big edge at the plate; they're tops in MLB vs lefties
--Tigers 4-0 after a loss over the past 4 losses (before Friday)

-245 is 40.8 cents otd
77 x 0.408 = 31.416
23 x -1.......= -23
----------------------------------
.....................8.416%


Too expensive for much value.
Runline might have double the ROI, again...

Tigers -1.5 65% (-124)+9

-124 is 80.6 cents otd
65 x 0.806 = 52.39
35 x -1......= -35
--------------------------------
...................17.39%


A little more appealing. I fully expect the Tigers to put on the jets here, after getting blown away yesterday, so a 2-run victory seems likely; this is about as high a call as I'll get for a runline.

Runline has
8.974/8.416%=
a 106% increase in ROI with
12/23%=
a 52% increase in risk.

Another fair trade-off.

I wish that I could find some value on today's board with some cheaper plays, but these 2 seem like good options in lieu of that.
What's a parlay pay?...

Bosox 70% (-169)+7
Tigers 77% (-245)+5
-----------------------------------
parlay 54% (+124)+9

54 x 1.24 = 66.96
46 x -1.....= -46
-------------------------------
.................20.96%


Not bad. Bosox runline looks a little better as you've got a slightly higher probability AND a slightly higher ROI. Tigers runline has a little less ROI but much less risk.

Crap...this Mets game is a joke...how many did they score Thursday?...then they get squat off of Tomko?!?!...this game is up for grabs, now...Dodgers have the bullpen edge, really...I could sure use a flippin' break in this one.

Go Mets!!!
:00hour :00hour :scared :00hour :00hour

 

[MoeshY-13-]

I can't bear to watch the pathetic Mets offense, right now...


Mets now up 4-1!!!!!!!!! :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hendrix bless the Mets!...for now...

I think Penny beats them Saturday, as Dodgers have beaten on Sosa before.

Kinda pricey for a play against the Mets here, seeing as they've taken the first 2 from Lad.

I dunno...my confidence level isn't very high right now, despite surviving Friday.
System sides are right around 60%, for all games, for July, but I'm still struggling. Low 50's calls are hitting at like 68%...I need the higher numbers to be doing that, not those low puppies. 70+ calls, with the Yankees loss Friday, are now only 8-5 in July (61.5% winners)...Need to bag the 2 today to at least get them to 10-5, which would be 66.6%...there's that number again...

Need totals to improve, too. Hit almost two-thirds of them in June after hitting at 60% in May. 5 games under .500 for the month is not helping me.

Speaking of totals, I should have a gander at Saturday's team totals.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

mets un4 -110 (-16)
cin ov4.5 -125 (+8)
Fla ov5 -110 (+7)
Mil un5 -160 (-7)
Pitt un4.5 -130 (-6)
(1)tb ov5 +105 (+14)
(1)Nyy ov6 -125 (+14)
(2)Nyy ov6 -115 (+6)
chisox un5 -145 (-8)
Bost ov5.5 -130 (+11)
kc un4 -145 (-17)
Det ov5.5 -105 (+10)
Twins un4 +100 (-8)
Tex ov5 -115 (+7)
O's un3.5 -130 (-12)


Those are the big ones. Quite a few today.
I've been posting these for awhile but haven't been keeping track of any records.
I wish I had kept them; I'm usually looking for at least a +10 or -10 for these, and I'd be curious to know how they've performed. 7 of them at 10 or higher today, though I wouldn't play the O's total at the 3.5, not the way the O's are smokin' the ball since the break. Tigers and Bosox over look good, but I'm probably a runline player so I don't know if I'll see team total action on those. Mets under 4 and either team over in the opener at Yankee Stadium also look tasty.
Met offense, though, is a little too unpredictable to play their team totals, right now.
Game total at Yankee Stadium might be better as both clubs likely cash some.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

One more game total I'm considering, though it might not be wise if I play the Tigers heavy, is at Comerica.

I've got it at 62% under the 9 (so not quite the 65% required for a "system total").
Ump Emmel is even for this one.

Verlander should get the job done (making the Royals team total under 4 an (expensive...-145) option.

De La Rosa has semi-decent numbers against the Tigers and is capable of throwing the (very) odd good game.
Tigers only 2 runs on 5 hits yesterday and they haven't really been smoking the ball at all since the all-star break.

It's a possibility, I just don't know how much I want to rely on this one game to get me through Saturday--still thinking about including the Tigers in a NUMBER of parlays (maybe with Dodgers, A's, Cubs, and/or Bosox).

How much should I let Friday's game affect my approach. I dunno...
I already penalized the Tigers call--quite a bit--3%--for Friday's poor performance, and the Tigers haven't lost 2 in a row for about a month, now.

Tigers lose Saturday and I may take a break Sunday.
This game should be in the bag.
SHOULD.

Don't you just hate that word?

Maybe I will just stick with "hope".
That's about all we've got left once we pull the trigger.
Forget this shoulda-woulda-coulda BS.
We shall reap what we sow.

May your philosophy contort your mind less than mine has mine.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Cubs down to -160. A system pick at that number.

Cubs 67% (-160)+5

--Cubs big edge at the dish as D'Backs can't hit lefties
--Cubs edge at SP
--Cubs on fire

-160 is 62.5 cents otd
67 x 0.625 = 41.875
33 x -1......= -33
------------------------------------
.....................8.875%


That's what you (I) get for tackling a big line.
2 out of 3 universes the Cubs take this one.
Hope I'm in one of them.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Earth acid cleanses me; it cleanses me clean. But the world it never comes.

Earth acid cleanses me; it cleanses me clean. But the world it never comes.

PLAYS

system picks

Cubs -160 3.2/2
Bosox -169 3.38/2
Tigers -1.5 -114 3.42/3

other picks

rockies -110 0.78/0.72
Dodgers -139 1.39/1
reds +132 1/1.32
giants +128 1/1.28
astros -108 0.86/0.8
angels -109 0.87/0.8

totals

cin@Fla ov9.5 -125 0.62/0.5
(1)tb@Nyy ov11 -105 1.05/1

3-teamer (system sweeper)
--Cubs ml
--Bosox ml
--Tigers ml
+267
0.74/2


Decided that there are a lot of sides that I like today. Playing 9 of the 15 games. 5 of my 9 are visitors, but the 3 I'd really like to see are homies. Might be pushing my luck today but D'Backs are atrocious against lefties, Bosox OPS vs lefties is about 100 points higher than Chisox OPS vs lefties, and the Tigers have got a monster mismatch all-round in a game for which they should be chomping at the bit to seek revenge. Big Papi's status doesn't concern me as the Bosox have plenty of O. De La Rosa has more than the occassional decent game, and he's been getting monstrous run-support, but Verlander has owned the Royals in his 6 starts against them, plus the Tigers are the highest scoring team vs lefties in MLB. I think I'm repeating myself. The other sides I like to a lesser extent; having some faith that system sides will have a good day.
Fade my totals right now as they blow.

I'll try to get Sunday's numbers up early?maybe will do it after the lines open, if I'm conscious then. Early pre-line leans for me are the Reds (arroyo-vanden hurk), Cubs (Marshall-Petit), Mets (Hernandez-Hendrickson), Tigers (Robertson-Bannister) runline, maybe, if they score 5+ today, Jays (Halladay-Ramirez), Chisox (Garland-Wakefield) if we see anywhere near +150, Twins (Garza-Saunders) and Orioles (Guthrie-Braden). The under looks possible in San Diego (Durbin-Peavy) but I wouldn't touch it at less than 8.5 with word that Peavy is not 100%...a Peavy start still probably sees a total of 7.5 or 8, max., either of which won't qualify it as a system total?will need that 8.5 to be a system total. No other system unders, likely. Overs are possible in Milwaukee (Zito-Vargas), New York (Shields-Pettitte), Boston (Garland-Wakefield), and especially in Texas (Byrd-Tejeda); that Ameriquest game will be a system total even at a 12?I've got that one rated through the roof?should check out the who the ump will be, but that can wait.
First I need to bring home the bacon today.

Looks like the Cubbies are first on the docket for me, starting in about 4 hours.
See you after a short snooze.
GL

 

[Riskbreaker]

lets get em!
GL