Saturday June 23rd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday June 23rd 2007

yesterday: 10-4 +7.85
June: 136-126 +5.00
ml 65-48 +6.80
rl 10-11 -6.01
totals 50-33 +19.97
parlays 11-34 -15.76
system picks 3-2 yesterday; now 115-70 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 6-1 yesterday; now 58-32 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Stl 53% (-111)even
cubs 60 (+100)+10
col 51 (-115)-3
hou 68 (-157)+6 RL 54 (-105)+2
nyy 62 (-166)-1
Fla 51 (+106)+2
clev 52 (-153)-9 Wash 48 (+145)+7
det 71 (-148)+11 RL 56 (+105)+7
Mil 54 (-149)-6
Tb 66 (-122)+11 RL 51 (+178)+14
Mets 70 (-134)+12 RL 55 (+160)+16
Laa 64 (-194)-2
balt 58 (+124)+13
Sd 58 (-122)+3
Seat 57 (-165)-6

system totals

col@Tor ov9.5 68% (-120)+13 --Davis is a slight over-ump
nyy@Sf un8.5 72 (+100)+22 --ump O'Nora is even
det@Atl un9 67 (+110)+19 --ump Fairchild is even
oak@Mets un9 83 (-130)+26 --ump Hudson is even
pitt@Laa un8 69 (-130)+12 --ump Meriwether is even
balt@Ariz un9.5 66 (+105)+17 --ump Barksdale is even
bost@Sd un7.5 74 (-125)+18 --Eddings is a great under-ump
cin@Seat un9.5 65 (-120)+10 --ump Runge is even


Yesterday was quite a mood-shifter. I was looking fantastic at around 10 pm, with all my totals rockin', the Phillies up comfortably, the Dodgers up?everything looked fine. D'Backs then make 3 errors in the top of the 2nd and that game goes up in flames. Followed up by the Angels getting plenty of hits but nothing to show for it and a potential large winning day becomes a third consecutive go-nowhere day. Missed two of three 70's calls so I deserve to stay put. I went 4-0 on totals to save a negative. Please ask me why I'm not betting more on totals this month.
OMG?talkin' about mood swingers?I won't even edit that?classic?Hendrix bless the Angels! Hit two of three 70's, at least.

Today's board is a beautiful thing. I think it has the potential to produce some nice profits. Six system picks all told, and I think they're due for a good day. System picks a mediocre 3-2 yesterday, but system sides went 11-4 overall, giving a 6-day record of 50-25 (66.6% winners). Need to hit today's 70's (Tigers & Mets) to have a good day; I like these two and agree with the system calls; there's a good deal of value on both. Other sides I'm trying to a lesser extent.

Lots of system totals, again. They went 6-1 yesterday?just owning June?and there's no umpire-kills here, only a bit of help in two places. I love playing Eddings' games under the total, and Young has been deadly at Petco; just need Wakefield to get in a groove here and this total should be a piece of cake. Other totals I'll play for less, but I do have my eye on that Pirates-Angels under; I think that one's going to be in play for me.

Incredibly, I am now up for June. It's time to deliver a punch in the gut to the man.

If you can follow my numbers then you should get the gist of who I like today.
Will post plays once completed.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright Jack, keep your hands off my stack

I'm alright Jack, keep your hands off my stack

PLAYS

system picks

cubs +100 1/1
astros -152 3.8/2.5
tigers -148 5.18/3.5
D'Rays -122 3.05/2.5
Mets -131 5.24/4
orioles +124 1.12/1.38

other picks

Padres -119 1.09/0.91

totals

col@Tor ov9.5 -115 0.57/0.5
nyy@Sf un8.5 +105 0.63/0.67
oak@Mets un9 -130 1.13/0.87
pitt@Laa un8 -130 1.13/0.87
bost@Sd un7.5 -125 1.66/1.34

2-teamer (70 pack)
--tigers ml
--Mets ml
+183
1.09/2

2-teamer (Aces High)
--astros ml
--D'Rays ml
+192
0.68/1.32

3-teamer (best under-shots)
--oak@Mets un9
--pitt@Laa un8
--bost@Sd un7.5
+463
0.43/2


Laying much less juice than I did yesterday; some better lines today. Sure seems that way, at least. Like yesterday, today I will plead to the baseball betting gods to hit my four top numbers (Tigers, Mets, Astros, D'Rays). Didn't happen yesterday (hit 3 of 4), but maybe it can work out today. Now that I think of it?a 3 of 4 like yesterday should do me just fine. A repeat of yesterday's sweep of the totals (went 4-0) is unlikely, but I'm sure expecting at least a 3-2 here, the way my totals are rockin'. Gimme the big parlay and I'll be thrilled there.

Sunday has the potential for some good plays, too. Cashed big with a nice Phillies line on Friday, and I'm hoping for a repeat come Sunday; Kip Wells has actually looked quite good in his career vs Phillies, but I'll take lefty Hamels here to get the Phillies the series win, or sweep if they manage to beat Wainwright today; the way the lines have been for this series I'd be surprised if it was more than -130ish. It's looking like four other calls will be in the 60's, with the next highest, after Philly, being the Dodgers; D'Rays will have a slight edge with the sticks but the mismatch at starting pitcher will be about as large as it gets; Penny has been sensational all season, and is on fire right now, while the D'Rays Jackson has looked like shit vs everybody but the Blue Jays this year; Dodgers beat Kazmir (crap?I hope not) and I'll really like them for the sweep. Mets (Maine), Indians (Westbrook) and Tigers (Miller) will also get the nod when I post tomorrow. Game of the day might be the Brewers, if we can get a reasonable line for Gallardo's second start; Perez has done good career work vs the Brewers but the Brew-Crew are smoking lefties at home this season and currently are in fine form; this game will be Sunday's only 70; anything up to -165 and it will be in play for me; might even try for a unit at -180?if the Brewers win today. It looks like DeMuth will be umping the game between Beckett and Peavy?err?I mean between the Bosox and the Padres; he's basically even, but does have a fairly low K% this season?won't stop me here; if we can actually get a 7 for this game then the system call will be under the 7 at 86%...take it with a grain of salt, perhaps, but system totals are 58-32 in June (64.4% winners).

Hoping to greet Sunday with a smile.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I still can't get over how cheap the Mets are...

return on investment breakdown for 70's
------------------------------------------------------------
tigers 71% (-148)+11 V.I.
-148 is 67.5 cents on the dollar
71 x 0.675 = 47.925
29 x -1......= -29
---------------------------------
....................18.925%

Pretty good there.

Mets 70% (-131)+13 V.I.
-131 is 76.3 cents on the dollar
70 x 0.763 = 53.41
30 x -1......= -30
------------------------------
...................23.41%

Knew it would be a little higher there.

While I'm at it...for some good karma...might as well do my two other wanna-haves.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
astros 68% (-152)+7 V.I.
-152 is 65.8 cents on the dollar
68 x 0.658 = 44.744
32 x -1......= -32
--------------------------------
....................12.744%

Not too bad for a 68% call.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
D'Rays 66% (-122)+11 V.I.
-122 is 81.9 cents on the dollar
66 x 0.819 = 54.054
34 x -1......= -34
-------------------------------
...................20.054%

Excellent.

That was pretty quick...going to do the two other system picks...

--------------------------------------------------------------------
cubs 60% (+100)+10 V.I.
60 x 1 = 60
40 x -1 = -40
----------------------
..............20%

Fantastic. I'd have more on this one but I think that there are some better options today. Hill has been getting no run support, but Chisox really having trouble with lefties this season (OPS .650...the worst in the Majors). Still...hard to trust the Cubs too heavily, right now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
orioles 58% (+124)+13 V.I.
58 x 1.24 = 71.92
42 x -1....= -42
------------------------------
..................29.92%

I figured that one would be highest; a nice +13 value indicator with good dog money will do that. It's the lowest call of all the system picks, at 58%, but still worth a shot as D'Backs are hurtin' against lefties (.670 OPS) and Burres has been decent; Orioles--a bit hot these days--will be facing a very cold Livan Hernandez in this one. I've got more on it (moron it?) than on the Cubs, anyway. No gaurantees here, but worth a try. Just for the record, 58's are 11-5 in June (68.7% winners) and 30-21 for 2007 (58.8% winners...gotta love it!)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Was something to do as I get ready to crash.
I love playing with these numbers (probably shows).
Should get to bed; going to try to get up for the mid-afternoon contests; got more than a passing interest in the Tigers and the Astros, after all.

See you tomorrow (today).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

my Shea money in limbo?

my Shea money in limbo?

crap...Mets game is now off the board...I have a feeling that there might be a pitching change happening there.

I prefer the Mets facing a lefty.
If it's Blanton for Kennedy than I think I spectate.
I still think Orlando's due for a good game, and he's (if memory serves) 5-0 vs the A's in 7 career starts.

If Memory Serves.

Not going to be the title of my biography.

I have outlasted Friday...time for some good-luck sleep.

See you in the aftermath.

:SIB

 

[bryanz]

there is much to like about the O's today !!! Like your pitt/laa (U) !!!!

 

[bryanz]

In the Clev/wash game, could you explain what kind of bet you would make if you had to and why ? THANKS !

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Good luck today X!! Cash these babies in. Keep up the great work you do boss!

 

[Hooks]

X, just wanted to say thanks for the work you do!
Was with you on Philly and I am one who always reads your posts. Hooks

 

[Regular Joe]

Ex,

Always nice to get that first one in....lunch money on the Toronto over.


Thanks for your efforts.


"Joe'

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks for the comments, folks.

I'm just checking in to MadJacks now, to see what kind of action I got, if anything.

bryanz, I know it's way too late to comment on Clev/Wash, but according to my numbers this one looked like it would be up for grabs. The only way I would have played it is on the Nats, at the decent dog-money, but I wasn't anxious to risk on a 48% proposition, what with so many better options on the board today.
Hit the under there, yesterday...looks like it will hit again today (not that I'm on it today).

I'll try and get Sunday's numbers up by midnight...I've got them prepared I just might make some final adjustments, based on the late games.

See you in a bit.

and flippin' Go D'Rays!!!

:00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

oh no...Al Reyes coming in at Tampa...
he's already blown one game for me, this week.

:scared

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

That was too heart-wrenching...flippin' tool Reyes gets 2 quick outs then gets into a 1st and 3rd situation with pinch-hitter Luis Gonzalez coming up.

Phew!!

:00hour

Might be enough to save my day.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Padres Chris Young is on fire tonight.

Lost his no-hitter in the 5th, but pitched around an error by striking out three straight.

Under looks good, but it's still very early.

Pitt-Angels miracle may occur, and cash (or push...I'd take it) the under.

Go pens!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

crap:com: I was looking great about 20 minutes ago...

Orioles were up, Petco game looked under...maybe even an under in Anaheim.

Now it looks like all I'll salvage from the late action is the Padres ml.

BS

C'mon O's...let's get it together.

:SIB

 

[turksure]

need 4 outs for the sd under