Saturday May 12th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday May 12th 2007

yesterday: 4-5 -0.9
May: 58-46 +17.71
ml 30-12 +16.42
rl 7-6 +1.05
totals 13-16 -1.59
parlays 8-12 +1.83
system sides 1-0 yesterday, now 51-26 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 52% (-117)-2
Phil 55 (-126)-1
atl 57 (-133)-1
fla 58 (-131)+1
Hou 64 (-180)-1
sf 63 (-110)+10
Sd 57 (-137)-1
Lad 68 (-162)+6 RL 54 (+135)+11
Bost 75 (-220)+6 RL 62 (-109)+9
Tor 67 (-125)+11 RL 52 (+150)+12
det 55 (-115)+1
laa 61 (-117)+7
clev 56 (-124)even
Cws 70 (-200)+3 RL 56 (+100)+6
nyy 63 (-137)+5

system totals

stl@Sd un7 67% (-105)+15 --ump Winters a slight under-lean
cin@Lad un8 72 (-130)+15 --ump Hernandez is even
clev@Oak un9.5 77 (-125)+21 --ump Muchlinski's been an excellent under-ump in his short career

Atlanta@Pittsburgh sounded like a nice over, to me, but Doug Eddings will be behind the plate and he is TOTALLY an under-ump; one of two umps I might play under simply because of them (Hirschbeck is the other?he must be on leave these days?Muchlinski's in his spot).

Another ump that kills an over play is Jeff Nelson, going in Florida@Washington; he's a strong under-lean.

Ump Cuzzi, going in the Mets game, is also an under-lean. I just don't know about playing a Pelfrey game under. Mets can probably hit Sheets, too.


System picks went a dissappointing 8-7 yesterday, now just 15-12 for the past 2 days. System picks are 98-52 for May (65.3% winners).
System totals went 3-2 yesterday (I went 1-1, missing my big one by half a run).
System totals 20-13 for May.

A few worth trying today.
Be back to post my plays a little later.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Philly

in Philly

Garcia a perfect 4-0, 0.60 era, vs Cubs.

Tempting.

His last was his best, at Arizona. Threw 6.

Phillies pen still garbage.
Guzman looked good in his first start...'course, that was vs Nats.

Still no Howard, and Burrell probably won't have another 5 RBI game.

Philly at 55% makes sense.

Pass at -126.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Houston

in Houston

Oswalt has only thrown 96 and 95 pitches over his past 2 starts, spanning 15 innings.
He could go a solid 8 here.
He's 5-0 in 6 starts vs D'Backs, era 1.64, whip 1.00, 40 K's and 2 HR in 44 IP.
3-1 in 5 home starts w/1.66 era, 0.95 whip.
Lost at home, 4-1 to Brewers, 3 starts ago.
D'Backs only .714 OPS vs righties.

Livan 8-4, 3.79 vs Astros.
Rock-solid in last 2, vs Mets and Dodgers (though 9 walks in 13).
5-1 in 6 career starts at Minute Maid! era 2.86.
Astros only .694 OPS vs righties, .689 at home (.775 at home last year).

ump Emmel is pretty even...maybe a slight over-lean (too bad)

System says under 8 at 56%.

I hate to pass on Oswalt.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in San Diego

in San Diego

Young a perfect 2-0 at home, era 0, whip 0.80.
Faced the Cards once, last year, Throwing 7 solid (1 run).
Has been incredibly sharp his last 2 (2W, 14 IP, 5 hits, 16 K).
Cards OPS only .659 vs righties.

Looper has been pretty solid, and Cards pen rated a 79 through April.
Looper 1-3, 2.52 vs Padres, but has never started against them.
an era of 0 for 2.2 IP at Petco.
Padres .674 OPS vs righties.

Ump Winters a decent man for an under play.
Flippin' 7 bites; got the Peavy show yesterday and still couldn't bag the under (push).
It was more appealing yesterday, at +110 (now -105...same 7).

Padres are tempting.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

kc@cws

kc@cws

over-under on Elarton innings pitched: 4.2
over-under on Elarton HR's allowed: 2.5

Chisox only .689 OPS vs righties (.850 last year!).
Chisox only .677 OPS at home (.830 last year).

Chisox are coming around, lately, and should feast here, I would think.

Buehrle so-so lately, but solid at home in 3 (era 2.20, whip 0.86, 17 K in 16.1).
16-6, 3.28 vs Royals.
Royals .712 OPS vs lefties; not the worst, but pretty bad.

Pricey.

One of 2 70's on the board (other Bosox)...I'm due to miss a 70 in May (12-1 so far)...wonder if it'll be today.
:shrug:

:weed:

:SIB

P.S.
A very good under-ump going in Gorman.
I can't touch it with Elarton starting.
System call is under 9 at 52%, that's without a bonus for the umpire, which it should certainly get for Gorman.

I'm on the Chisox RL, so I'm looking for a break-out game from the O.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Somebody please talk me out of playing the Yankees again...


...QUICKLY!!!...

:scared

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Colorado

in Colorado

(too late)

West is a bit of an over-ump, for this game.

Tough to play a Zito game over.
He's 1-0, 1.35 vs in 3 starts.
1-0, 0.69 in 2 starts at Coors!
Rockies only .672 OPS vs lefties (.810 last year, and .717 through April, so it's gone down this month).

Francis 3-5, 5.97 vs Giants.
0-3, 7.66 in 4 home starts.
Looked good in his last, at St.Louis, but who hasn't looked good against the Cards, this year?
Giants .743 OPS vs lefties.

I've already got the Giants big.
Why am I even looking at this total?
My lean is under 9.5.
System says over 9.5 at 58%.

Go Giants!!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in LA

in LA

Reds .787 OPS vs righties.
Dodgers .673 OPS vs righties.

Wish I had a better ump for this total.
(Hernandez is even)

Already have the Dodgers pretty big.
Should leave it alone.

Dodgers poor OPS should keep this one down, along with the smokin' Penny (5-2, 3.44 vs Reds).

Can't resist.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Bit of an over-ump (Guccione) going in Boston.

Passing on this total.

A slightly better over-ump (Randazzo) going in Toronto.
Flippin' 11?!?!?
System likes the over, but because it's so high the call is only at 59% (should get a bonus for the umpire, too).
Jackson's 1 day start was better than his night outtings, but not by much (held the A's to 4 er through 6 in his last).
McGowan is 0-2, 8.84 for his limited day work (including 31 BB vs 30 K).

Another one I'm already heavily into the side for.
Still...bullpens don't help the under much, as both will surrender runs here, methinks.

Worth a small investment.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Texas

in Texas

Bit of an over-ump going in Meriwether.

Colon 16-5, 3.40 vs Rangers.
6-3, 4-13 at Ameriquest.
Rangers OPS .708 vs righties.

Loe has been garbage with a couple of great outtings thrown in (including last, vs slumping Jays).
2-3, 5.59 vs Angels.
1-1, 4.87 at home.
Angels .716 OPS vs righties.

Can't touch this total.
Taking a shot with the Angels, and a win gives me a series play, to boot.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Minny

in Minny

An over-ump in McClelland going.
Trouble is, Twins offense is sputtering (and Durbin has come alive past 3).
Ponson likely gives up 4-5, and the BP isn't as dominant as it was last year.

System call is 52% on an UNDER 10.
Should swing across to an over-call with any reasonable bonus for the umpire.

Playin' the Tigers small.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright Jack keep your hands off of my stack

I'm alright Jack keep your hands off of my stack

PLAYS

system sides

giants -110 2.75/2.5
Dodgers -162 3.24/2
Bosox -1.5 -109 1.09/1
Blue Jays -125 2.5/2
angels -117 1.17/1

other sides

brewers -117 0.58/0.5
Astros -180 1.8/1
Padres -137 0.68/0.5
tigers -115 0.8/0.7
indians -124 0.62/0.5
Chisox -1.5 +100 1/1
yankees -137 1.37/1

totals

ariz@Hou un8 -120 0.84/0.7
cin@Lad un8 -130 0.65/0.5
tb@Tor ov11 -110 0.55/0.5
clev@A's un9.5 -125 0.83/0.67


That's a lot of sides. 12 of 15 games. Hope system numbers return to form.
Might try some parlay action, too, seeing as I've got a lot of high numbers today.
Gonna have a puff (getting psyched up for Canada vs Sweden) and mull it over.
Will post 'em if played

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

You can see that people are aware of Doug Eddings ump'ing in Pittsburgh.

Lines moved to now -140 to play the under (9.5).

I'd almost play it, just because of Eddings, but Armas has been brutal (Pitt's pen has been good).
James is nothing special, either, and Pirates hit lefties better than righties last year (OPS .790 vsL, .710 vsR.).
Pitt only .681 vs lefties so far this year.

Should be interesting...see if Eddings can UNDER a game that, by all rights, should go OVER.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

added:

2-teamer (70's)
--Bosox ml
--Chisox ml
+118
1/1.18

2-teamer
--Astros ml
--Bosox ml
+124
0.5/0.62

2-teamer
--Astros ml
--Chisox ml
+134
0.5/0.67

2-teamer (early cruisers)
--Bososx ml
--Blue Jays ml
+154
0.59/0.91

4-teamer (68,75,67,70) (Super-Cruiser Home Team Special)
--Dodgers ml
--Bosox ml
--Blue Jays ml
--Chisox ml
+515 (I left my brain on the train)
1/5.15

4-teamer (half-unit burnout)
--Astros ml
--giants ml
--angels ml
--nyy ml
+766
0.5/3.83


I may pummel the late games, if I'm on early; feeling confident today.
Jeez it's early?I still gotta wait an hour just for the Canada-Sweden hockey game.
At least that will take me to 1st pitch.

GL

:SIB

 

[~Buckshot~]

Large card, best of luck today...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

gonna need it:scared

thankya:toast: :mj06:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

posting this for that special person (thanks)

posting this for that special person (thanks)

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...98-52
51??...17-15?.17-15??6-2
52??...13-13?.13-13??4-6
53??...16-16?.16-16??7-4
54??...14-8?...14-8??..6-4
55??...9-12??9-12??.3-5
56??...17-4??17-4??.2-5
57??...8-6??...8-6??..9-3
58??...8-11??.8-11??3-2
59??...11-11?..11-11?...4-4
60??...12-9??12-9??.6-2
61??...10-8??10-8??.9-1
62??...10-8??10-8??.5-1
63??...13-9??13-9??.4-3
64??...7-10??7-10??.7-4
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-1
66??...9-5??...9-5??..5-1
67??...6-2??...6-2??..2-1
68??...5-4??...5-4??..1-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..1-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..2-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..2-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..3-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..0-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80
totals?..45-53?..45-53??20-13
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


See You tomorrow

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

nice start to the day

nice start to the day

:canada1

4-1 Canada!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

rock n' roll!

rock n' roll!

:Yep:

To pound or not to pound the night games.

That is the question.

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

if I had a million dollars

if I had a million dollars

added:

2-teamer
--Chisox ml tonight
--Bosox ml tomorrow
-104
2.08/2

Got an 80% on the Bosox tomorrow.
Will post Sunday's numbers probably near game's end tonight.
Go Giants!!! Go Dodgers!!! Go White Sox!!!

May you find glory

:SIB