Saturday NCAA

[Smitty]

dropped back below 60% with a mediocre day last saturday. don't really like the card today, so treading lightly. each play one unit. there are two 'double digit rushing dogs' today.

nc st (+10) this is the first DD rushing dog. nc st rushes for 3.86 ypc, while allowing 2.80. fsu rushes for 3.77 ypc, while allowing 4.76 ypc.

southern miss (+6.5) both teams can score, but southern miss occasionally plays some defense. i expect fletcher to have a big day running against a porour run defense.

wake forest (+6.5) why do i keep buring money on wake forest? today, there are two reasons. 1) miami simply isn't that good (although they have certainly improved) and 2) the line movement. almost everyone on miami, and yet the line came off of 7 and actually dropped half a point.

arkansas st (+2.5) this is a trap game for a bad team - usually a recipe for disaster. louisville is coming off a game at cincinnati, and they play at west virginia next week. arkansas state is 2-5 (with one of those wins over mississippi valley state - without jerry rice, i'm pretty sure), but they're only getting 2.5 on the road against a big east team? hmmmm

north texas (-13.5) did i really just take north texas laying almost 2 tds? *gulp* this line shot up during the week, and i can't imagine it was because joe q public was lining up to hammer the mean green.

UL Monroe (+14) my third sunbelt game today (that HAS to be a first) is the other DD rushing dog i see today. the warhawks rush for 4.39 ypc and allows 3.21 ypc. troy rushes for 4.00 yps, and allows 3.85 ypc.

leaning towards usc, because it seems like the whole world is on oregon.

 

[Master Capper]

Good luck Smitty, I ask why I back Wake, and Michigan since both teams always beat me. I looked at that Troy game, and almost pulled the slot on Monroe since Troys defense is not that good to lay 14, but I backed away due to uncertainity at the QB position.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, mc. wake has been very good to me over the years, but not so much this year. fortunately, i hit a few big plays against them (vs baylor and clemson). but every time i play on them this year... not so good. i guess i'm a glutton for punishment. or just stupid.

i don't have that problem with michigan, since i have a severe dislike for the wolverines.

obviously my monroe play is just because of the old 'double digit rushing dog'; i'm not familiar with them. even when i played them on tuesday night a few weeks ago, i could hardly watch the game. i guess my question is... when you're talking about ul monroe, is there that big of a difference from one qb to the next?

oh, the dd rushing dogs i found last year (i wasn't very consistent putting in the time to find them) went 1-6.

 

[Master Capper]

Smitty,

I dont want to talk you out of your play. Monroes QB situation is a little different with Wells compared to Revell. Revell (JR) was a dual threat to run or pass, think of a poor mans Terrelle Pryor, as Revell is 6 foot 5 and 221 pounds. Wells is a freshman that in his only start ran the ball five time for negative 7 yards, so he appears to not be the same type of threat as Revell. Who knows, the SUNBELT is by far the most wacky conference in the country week in and week out.

 

[Smitty]

mc, thank you very much for the info. you are a credit to this fine website, sir.

it's certainly not a big play for me. i'll just hope the numbers are backed up by the play on the field, and the warhawks (how can anyone not love that name?) are able to establish a running game.