Saturday new format

[JT Sneaks]

Last Night's Recap

Baltimore +135 W
SF -120 W
Texas +110 W
San Diego -130 L

Overall: 3-1, +2.15
**Dalla Factor: +6

**This number is based on Nolan's power rating, which is explained in his daily post. Thanks for showing me this Nolan, I think it is a great measuring stick, hope you don't mind the slight name change.

Back with selections shortly....

JT

Sneaks


------------------
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
A man is not defined by how he reacts when he wins, but how he reacts when he loses.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[phoenix566]

Should the juice layed/taken be factored into the 'Dalla factor'? If so, how do you see this fitting into the equation? What is you lay a big favorite and they win by 1, or lose. Shouldn't the extra juice layed bring down the factor in this example?

 

[JT Sneaks]

Rapid Writeups


Tampa @ New York -210
The price is just too high for me to lay on Lilly, especially with the way the Rays have been hitting the ball lately. Strongly considered the rays plus the run and a half, but rupe has not impressed me at all.
PASS

Seattle @ Anaheim -110
The better team is obvious, however I have a hard time backing a rook making his first start in the bigs, even if he did have good numbers on the farm. The angels are just 1-3 in the last four at home and Ortiz has an era over four in his last three starts that will keep me off the halos.
PASS

New York @ Atlanta -170
At first glance, leiter at +160 has some good value, however I am not sure who would hit the ball for the mets.The mets are just hitting .215 in the last ten. Piazza is hurt and the mets best hitter against maddux (hamilton .438) has just asked for his release. Cuzzi behind the plate is a homer (home team 13-5, home fav over -160 is 5-0 since '99). Chipper likes lieter to the tune of .316, and maddux has been stellar in his last three with a whip of 1.00, and seven runs of support. I hat to lay this much chalk, but the braves should get the job done today.
PLAY Atlanta -170

Cubs -130 @ Reds
The reasoning is to back the cubbies here, but a few things have made me back off. Tavarez is the better and the hotter pitcher, but the reds still seem to hit him well.
Boone .750
Casey .500
Griffey .400 w/ 2 HR's
Tucker .308
Young .300
Can't play the reds as they are horrible at home, and acevedo got shelled in his last outing. The Over was going to be the call, but mother nature may take over this game as there is T-storm's in the forecast, and the wind is blowing in.
PASS

Back with SF vs. St. Louis

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Phoenix,

you make a good point and that may be something to consider. Although I cannot answer for nolan, I think the main purpose of the power factor was for football, (where juice would be equal) and he is only testing it out for bases. I would like to use something like it for hoops, and wanted to use it now, to see if I could apply it later.


JT

Sneaks

 

[gsp]

JT, I might be wrong but I believe its meant as a measure for strenght of capping. You might want keep up with it against the money-line and see how the two do against each other. Just a thought.

 

[JT Sneaks]

St. Louis @ San Fran -115 / 8.5O20
There is a good chance that this game could miss both home run hitters this afternoon. Big Mac almost always sits out a day game after a nite game, and bonds may also sit this one out. There was another gasp when Bonds robbed rookie Albert Pujols of a potential fifth-inning homer with a spectacular leaping catch in left field -- but hit the wall with his glove hand as he came down.

Bonds dropped to his knees in pain as trainer Stan Conte sprinted from the dugout. Bonds stayed in the game, but held his hand gingerly for the rest of the inning.

After the game, Bonds was X-rayed as a precaution, manager Dusty Baker said. The X-rays were negative, and the Giants said Bonds was day to day.

Pending a late look at the line up card, and a late weather report the total could be a play. If mac and bonds sit, and the weather continues to help out (wind currently blowing in)....

PLAY UNDER 8.5 (E)


Boston -115 @ Toronto
I don't understand how a team who is playing so bad can still be favored in this situation. The sox have dropped three straight, and the four in a row to the jays. However they have been hitting better than the jays in the last ten, and the sox seem to always give cone good run support as the sox have won five straight when he has started. Hamilton for the jays has been a moneymaker for me. When I go against him. He has an era in over seven in his last three and I have no confidence in him. The OVER seems to have some value here, but I am going to pass on that as well.
PASS

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

If cone doesn't go deep into the game the sox could be in trouble.....This was pitching coach joe kerrigan speaking of why Florie pitched against mondesi...

Florie really had no business being out there for Mondesi, but he'd run out of other bullets in the bullpen. Rod Beck had pitched in four of the last five games, Derek Lowe three out of four, Hipolito Pichardo the last two.


''It was unfair to put Bryce in that position,'' Kerrigan said. ''But somebody else has got to step up with [Rich] Garces out. If we went for Beck or Lowe, we'd be right behind the 8-ball again.''


NOTE: Cone has only pitched past the fifth inning twice in his last ten starts....

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

TAMPA BAY AT NY YANKEES -- LINEUPS


Brent Abernathy 2B Derek Jeter
Steve Cox 1B Paul Oneill
Greg Vaughn LF Bernie Williams
Fred Mcgriff DH Tino Martinez
Russ Johnson 3B Jorge Posada
Ben Grieve RF David Justice
Mike Difelice C Shane Spencer
Andy Sheets SS Scott Brosius
Jason Tyner CF Alfonso Soriano

 

[NJO]

sportsweatherpage.com shows, currently, winds of 20+ MPH blowing out to right at San Fran, so I was just wondering where your info (wind blowing in) is from.

Not that I believe or don't believe you, but that contradiction is pretty important to the over/under

 

[loophole]

weather channel has winds out of the west (dead in from center field) at 12mph increasing to 20-25 mph out of the west this afternoon. would be nice to get a little local confirmation on this from someone in the bay area as i too am seriously considering the under here. in a game matching two good arms home plate ump miller has a 8-10 o/u reord this year with a pretty strong 2.62 so/walks ratio.

 

[JT Sneaks]

Thanks for the info on the weather, I have seen it on weather.com, as wind out of the west, and will research it furthur and post something before game time. I agree loop a local update would be perfect...

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Got this forecast from yahoo...

Today...variable high cloudiness at times...otherwise mostly sunny. Patchy morning fog along the coast. Highs from the lower 60s at the ocean to the mid 80s inland. Afternoon seabreeze 15 to 25 mph.

For those who do not know a sea breeze is one that comes from the sea towards the land, therefore the wind is forecasted to be blowing this afternoon. Hope this helps...

JT

Sneaks

 

[loophole]

yahoo weather and kbhk-tv san francisco forecast seabreeze (west) 15-25 mph this afternoon.

 

[JT Sneaks]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/starters/20010630/stlsfo.html


bonds out...big mac in....


PLAY CARDS -105
PLAY UNDER 8.5 (E)

Sneaks

 

[snoozing]

JT, just to say thanks for your great write-up and sharing your HC knowledge. It takes balls to explain why you are making a call because you run the risk of being wrong in reasoning as well as your play. It is much safer for those like me who simply list who I bet on, if I lose big deal, its just money: no rep on the line.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks,
Bill

 

[JT Sneaks]

thanks bill...means alot, always check out your work...

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Late plays:

CWS -150
Col +105
Philly +110
Toronto +105

back with reasons if time permits...


JT

Sneaks

 

[Lockport7]

JT Sneaks,


I think I am gonna go with a couple of these later games due to the crappyness of my cubs.... Watcha think about these

Astros -130
Philly +105
Bluejays +100
BOS/TOR under 10 +105

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

as always a pleasure to read your stuff JT.

I like Houston as well..but philly taking four in a row against FLORIDA?
I picked florida for this one cause it gives them some insurance to win tomorrow and get a 2 out of 5'er....

 

[JT Sneaks]

LP,

I like every selection you have worried about your under selection in the tor/bos...cone does not go long and the boston bullpen is tapped, and hamilton is not so good, but runs are few and far between for the jays so good luck but I will pass....

TV,

Not bad reasoning for the florida play, the number one reason I back the phils tonight. How often do you get a first place team at home, with the ace on the hill, plus money? Florida has also forgot how to hit the ball. May have a total play in this one...

JT

Sneaks