hawaii warriors over 73 points
been working this game all week, and keep coming up with points galore every way i look at it. i normally dont cap a whole lot of numbers and stats, but i think theyre relevant and applicable in this game.
* michigan state's rushing offense
spartans should be able to chunk away yards against a hawaii defensive front that is just atrocious against the run. and really, thats the only thing keeping me away from playing hawaii with the pts/moneyline again this week. i know hawaii is gonna get their pts, and i think they CAN win this game. but i cant get the indelible images out of my head of fresno and boise just abusing hawaii's defensive line. those two teams are similar to michigan state in terms of their aggressive committment to running the football, and they both put up nintendo-like numbers against hawaii's run defense.
boise state vs. hawaii run defense
50 carries
425 yards
8.5 yards per carry
fresno state vs. hawaii run defense
64 carries
503 yards
7.6 yards per carry
* hawaii's passing offense
with those almost gory rushing numbers above, youd think hawaii would be hard pressed to stay close, but i dont think that will be the case. i think theyll match msu score for score. this team is so incredibly confident at home, and msu hasnt seen a passing attack like this all season. if you look at their schedule, theyve havent played a team this year that likes to throw it around. so their ranking in pass defense is really skewed. saw some debate earlier this week about chang and whether or not hes a product of the system. to an extent, id say he is. but hes also a pretty damn good quarterback. and hes almost unstoppable on the island. he's led them to some good wins at home over his career (bama, fresno, miami,oh, byu when they were really good) -- and thats where i dont think he gets enough credit. hawaii might be the worst team on the planet playing on the mainland. but then again, they might have one of the biggest home field edges in the nation on the island. i really think michigan states defense is in for a surprise, because you can argue that the best passing team msu has faced all year was rutgers.
all in all, i think we're gonna see a lot of first downs. a lot of points. and a lot of big plays. i know a lot of people (myself included) usually freak out when it comes to betting a total to go over 70+ points, but i can really see this game in the mid-80s. this could be a carbon copy of the northwestern/hawaii game from last week. even if msu runs the ball often, its not likely theyll be 3-yds-and-a-cloud-of-dust-type runs -- itll probably be 6 or 7 yds a pop. hawaii playing confident football again, now that their bowl eligibility is at stake. msu playing for pride, but that makes me even more confident that they wont be playing any conservative big10 football. and it seems like every time i bet a hawaii game, chad owens does something electric, so not ruling out a punt return for an easy 7 from him.
call it msu 45 hawaii 41, but can see hawaii getting the outright win if they play a clean game.
been working this game all week, and keep coming up with points galore every way i look at it. i normally dont cap a whole lot of numbers and stats, but i think theyre relevant and applicable in this game.
* michigan state's rushing offense
spartans should be able to chunk away yards against a hawaii defensive front that is just atrocious against the run. and really, thats the only thing keeping me away from playing hawaii with the pts/moneyline again this week. i know hawaii is gonna get their pts, and i think they CAN win this game. but i cant get the indelible images out of my head of fresno and boise just abusing hawaii's defensive line. those two teams are similar to michigan state in terms of their aggressive committment to running the football, and they both put up nintendo-like numbers against hawaii's run defense.
boise state vs. hawaii run defense
50 carries
425 yards
8.5 yards per carry
fresno state vs. hawaii run defense
64 carries
503 yards
7.6 yards per carry
* hawaii's passing offense
with those almost gory rushing numbers above, youd think hawaii would be hard pressed to stay close, but i dont think that will be the case. i think theyll match msu score for score. this team is so incredibly confident at home, and msu hasnt seen a passing attack like this all season. if you look at their schedule, theyve havent played a team this year that likes to throw it around. so their ranking in pass defense is really skewed. saw some debate earlier this week about chang and whether or not hes a product of the system. to an extent, id say he is. but hes also a pretty damn good quarterback. and hes almost unstoppable on the island. he's led them to some good wins at home over his career (bama, fresno, miami,oh, byu when they were really good) -- and thats where i dont think he gets enough credit. hawaii might be the worst team on the planet playing on the mainland. but then again, they might have one of the biggest home field edges in the nation on the island. i really think michigan states defense is in for a surprise, because you can argue that the best passing team msu has faced all year was rutgers.
all in all, i think we're gonna see a lot of first downs. a lot of points. and a lot of big plays. i know a lot of people (myself included) usually freak out when it comes to betting a total to go over 70+ points, but i can really see this game in the mid-80s. this could be a carbon copy of the northwestern/hawaii game from last week. even if msu runs the ball often, its not likely theyll be 3-yds-and-a-cloud-of-dust-type runs -- itll probably be 6 or 7 yds a pop. hawaii playing confident football again, now that their bowl eligibility is at stake. msu playing for pride, but that makes me even more confident that they wont be playing any conservative big10 football. and it seems like every time i bet a hawaii game, chad owens does something electric, so not ruling out a punt return for an easy 7 from him.
call it msu 45 hawaii 41, but can see hawaii getting the outright win if they play a clean game.
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