02:20 PM MLB [902] CHI CUBS -1.5 +105 ( L WEAVER -R / K HENDRICKS -R )
01:05 PM MLB [914] NY YANKEES -172 ( M ANDRIESE -R / M TANAKA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [917] TOTAL o9.5 -105 (KC ROYALS vrs MIN TWINS) (GEE/DUFFEY)
08:05 PM MLB [922] TEX RANGERS -1.5 +115 ( M BOYD -L / C HAMELS -L )
07:10 PM MLB [926] MIA MARLINS -174 ( J SHIELDS -R / A CONLEY -L )
07:10 PM MLB [927] TOTAL o10.5 -110 (ARI DBACKS vrs BOS RED SOX) (BRADLEY/BUCHHOLZ)
09:05 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u7-130 (BAL ORIOLES vrs SFO GIANTS) (GAUSMAN/BUMGARNER)
08:00 PM NFL [278] LA RAMS -5-115
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-132, -37.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
historic bad starts last night for two aces - Waino had the worst road start of his long career (tho not surprising as it is his worst season ever). But Strasburg had his first ever 2 bad starts in a row - he's never done that, going back to his debut in 2010! And he's had a fine year. So he's going to have to endure speculations now about whether he's hurt...
Cubs RL: Kyle Hendricks - Seven ER in his last 10 starts is just crazy. Weaver and his fine control should do well in the majors, but this is just a bad spot for his debut...another AZ/Bost over that should cash by the 6th inning. Bradley not all that good, and getting worse...Buchholz! ha! - But they claim some mechanic tweaks have fixed a few things, we will see...
both these starting pitchers at MN are off very rare excellent starts, they both probably blow up today! But only need 1 of 'em to pitch their typical game and win our 'over'. Besides, KC hitting better of late, and MN bullpen is getting gassed.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Aaron Sanchez last 8 starts all went under....after giving up 4 ER or more, he game up 0, 2, 1, in his next start.
Aaron Sanchez is staying in the Blue Jays' starting rotation for the time being, and that's good news for fantasy owners. He has been Toronto's best starter, and he just continues to produce. Only once in his last nine starts has he allowed more than two runs. A matchup against Houston may look imposing on paper, but the Astros' lineup has actually been below average against righties this year while whiffing at a 24 percent clip, the highest rate in the American League.
This will be Weaver?s MLB debut. Since returning from a spring wrist injury, Weaver has been terrific. He posted a 1.40 ERA in 12 Double-A starts before making his Triple-A debut on Monday. He went six scoreless innings and scattered two hits...
Weaver?s fastball velocity ticked up this season to 93-94 mph, perhaps because his arm was fresher, and he?s touched as high as 98 mph. His changeup is his best secondary pitch and his newfound cutter has helped him neutralize lefthanded hitters, who batted .310 against him last season, but are hitting just .220 this season. He combines excellent stuff with plus control, as he?s walked just 1.6 batters per nine as a pro.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Because both Reyes and Weaver have had abbreviated seasons, they don?t face the innings limits that would normally be placed on young pitchers. Weaver has made just one start at Triple-A, but his advanced control makes him more ready to contribute at the big league level than many young pitchers with much more Triple-A experience. Rookie starting pitchers are often erratic from start to start, but the combination of a solid team and solid control gives Weaver a chance to make a significant impact both in real life and fantasy terms over the final third of the season.
Kyle Hendricks - Seven earned runs in his last 10 starts is absurd.
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over
The Minnesota Twins are the best ?OVER? team in the Majors vs right handed pitchers cashing it at a 65% clip. They also have the worst winning percentage in baseball against right handed pitchers which means their games go ?Over? because the other team puts up their fair share of runs. I like the Royals to do that here tonight. The Royals have won 6 of 7 this year against the Twins and have scored 4 or more runs in all 7 games. One of those games was a Dillon Gee and Tyler Duffey matchup where the final score was 7-5 (OVER). The score was 5-4 after the 4th inning. Current members of the Twins are hitting .385 (.450 wOBA) vs Gee. Current members of the Royals are hitting .364 (.415 wOBA) vs Duffey. Opposing batters are hitting over .320 at Minnesota vs Duffey. If that?s not bad, the Twins bullpen has used 7 pitchers and 283 pitches in the last 3 days and 9 pitchers with 370 pitches the last 5 days. The Royals lineup is starting to hit better, especially their #1 and #2 hitters. The Twins have given up at least 7 runs in their last 7 games. Dillon Gee for the Royals is nothing more than a fill in starter and I have to expect him to give up his fair share of runs. The Royals bullpen has been decent lately, but is still prone to blow a lead and the Twins bullpen has an ERA of 5.40/ 4.90 FIP the last 7 days.
Dan Straily - 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Okay. I know there are going to be some of you that swear by Straily, and why wouldn't you? He's been doing great for your team and you think it's crazy that I don't even include him on The List. Here's how I see this. Owning Straily right now is like you're playing Blackjack and the dealer keeps busting. To you it seems that this game is super easy and no doubt you should keep playing. I see that he has a 4.61 FIP (5.02 xFIP!) with a poor 3.43 BB/9 as he's an extreme anti-groundballer (32.2%) with hard contact up the wazoo (32.1%). Still want to keep making that bet?
Dan Straily sports a 1.93 ERA and 0.76 WHIP so far in the second half, and he'll carry those numbers into a road matchup with the Brewers, who strike out more than any team in baseball against righties (26 percent) and sport a bottom-five wRC+ (86).
deGrom is 1-0, 0.44 in his last three starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12. Mets are 8-3 in his home starts.
San Diego lost 12 of last 17 road games; six of Padres? last eight games went over. Mets are 4-12 in last 16 games; seven of last eight games at Citi Field went over.
Hamels has picked up a quality start in four of his five outings since the All-Star break and has a 1.83 ERA over that span. The Rangers have won 10 of his last 12 starts, and they are 16-6 overall in his starts this year.
PLAY: CINCINNATI 1ST HALF
Those who value metrics are likely going to cringe at this play. Since I adhere to focusing on those numbers myself, I can certainly understand any disdain for this selection. Based on the key analytics, Dan Straily has been getting blessed with some exceptionally good fortune of late. At some point that?s supposed to stop, and a regression is supposed to take place. Maybe that happens tonight at Milwaukee, but I?ll be making a bet that it won?t.
The fact is Straily is on a roll. Sure, some of the data says fluke, such as a ludicrously low BABIP in his last three starts. But the Reds keep winning when Straily takes the mound, with the current run at five straight winners. I?m not looking to get in the way of that nice run.
There?s no question that Brewers righty Zach Davies has superior metrics to Straily, and Davies is beginning to look like a guy Milwaukee can count on as a decent mid-rotation starting piece. I?m definitely not making this an anti-Davies play, as he?s been pretty solid for the Brewers.
I like the Cincinnati offense right now. They?re hitting, and even though this team was basically eliminated as a contender during spring training, the Reds haven?t been mailing it in. Neither have the Brewers, who were pretty much in the same boat. But the deadline deals did hurt this this roster, and I would submit that at this point, the Reds might actually be a stronger overall squad than the Brewers.
This is as F5 as it gets, as that Cincinnati bullpen remains a liability. It?s not as inept as it was earlier in the campaign, but the Reds relief corps is still very untrustworthy. So I?ll once again limit this to a first half only wager. Lucky or not, I?ll buy Straily to keep his roll going and the F5 bet is on the Reds.
The Giants ace draws a home start against Baltimore. The Orioles obviously have much more firepower than the Padres, but they've been one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching this season (82 wRC+). They also strike out 22 percent of the time. Bumgarner is one of the best and safest pitchers in baseball, and that's only amplified when he's pitching at home. In 12 starts at AT&T Park this season, Bumgarner owns a 1.59 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 10.1 K/9,
Gausman is 1-2, 5.63 in his last three starts; seven of his last nine stayed under. Orioles lost eight of his last nine road starts.
Bumgarner is 0-3, 4.50 in his last five starts; five of his last six stayed under. Giants are 7-5 in his home starts.
Orioles are 7-5 in their last 13 games; under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games. Giants are 8-17 in last 25 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Cowboys vs. Rams
Play: Rams -5
Teddy is coming off a truly epic NFL campaign and he picked up right where he left off; now 1-0 in 2016 after cashing with the Patriots on Thursday. Teddy is VERY selective in August, betting only where he finds STRONG information - not silly opinions. Don?t miss a single winner all weekend long!
If you?ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you?ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium. That won?t be the case on Saturday Night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn?t taking this preseason home opener lightly. After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there?s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA. His quote: ?(We?re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team?s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.?
Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there?s no question that LA has expectations this August. Dallas does not. The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 margin. They lost all four preseason games in 2014 by five points or more, including an ugly 27-7 Week 1 blowout loss. In fact, their last Week 1 preseason win came back in 2012, with a 3-0 victory over Oakland. I?m confident that three points won?t be enough for Dallas to win or cover this one, and head coach Jason Garrett sure doesn?t seem as if he?s treating this year?s preseason opener any differently!
The Cowboys have a ?top-heavy? roster. They?ve paid their superstars well, but those stars have been injury prone, and the quality depth behind them has been extremely limited. That?s been most obvious at the quarterback position, where it?s going to be Dak Prescott and Jameil Showers for the full 60 minutes on Saturday Night in an effort to keep Tony Romo from taking hits, with backup Kellen Moore already hurt. Prescott will be facing NFL competition for the first time; Showers was in training camp last year but he?s notched just 125 total yards of preseason passing under his belt.
St Louis will be giving a rookie QB ample playing time as well, but that rookie QB was #1 overall draft pick Jared Goff, not a 4th rounder like Prescott. LA will also have Case Keenum starting and Sean Mannion coming off the bench; two veterans who are primed to move the offense. Even with the pointspread creeping higher as we approach kickoff, this is a classic preseason contest where one team gives a sh** and the other team just wants to get out of town healthy?
01:05 PM MLB [914] NY YANKEES -172 ( M ANDRIESE -R / M TANAKA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [917] TOTAL o9.5 -105 (KC ROYALS vrs MIN TWINS) (GEE/DUFFEY)
08:05 PM MLB [922] TEX RANGERS -1.5 +115 ( M BOYD -L / C HAMELS -L )
07:10 PM MLB [926] MIA MARLINS -174 ( J SHIELDS -R / A CONLEY -L )
07:10 PM MLB [927] TOTAL o10.5 -110 (ARI DBACKS vrs BOS RED SOX) (BRADLEY/BUCHHOLZ)
09:05 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u7-130 (BAL ORIOLES vrs SFO GIANTS) (GAUSMAN/BUMGARNER)
08:00 PM NFL [278] LA RAMS -5-115
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-132, -37.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
historic bad starts last night for two aces - Waino had the worst road start of his long career (tho not surprising as it is his worst season ever). But Strasburg had his first ever 2 bad starts in a row - he's never done that, going back to his debut in 2010! And he's had a fine year. So he's going to have to endure speculations now about whether he's hurt...
Cubs RL: Kyle Hendricks - Seven ER in his last 10 starts is just crazy. Weaver and his fine control should do well in the majors, but this is just a bad spot for his debut...another AZ/Bost over that should cash by the 6th inning. Bradley not all that good, and getting worse...Buchholz! ha! - But they claim some mechanic tweaks have fixed a few things, we will see...
both these starting pitchers at MN are off very rare excellent starts, they both probably blow up today! But only need 1 of 'em to pitch their typical game and win our 'over'. Besides, KC hitting better of late, and MN bullpen is getting gassed.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Aaron Sanchez last 8 starts all went under....after giving up 4 ER or more, he game up 0, 2, 1, in his next start.
Aaron Sanchez is staying in the Blue Jays' starting rotation for the time being, and that's good news for fantasy owners. He has been Toronto's best starter, and he just continues to produce. Only once in his last nine starts has he allowed more than two runs. A matchup against Houston may look imposing on paper, but the Astros' lineup has actually been below average against righties this year while whiffing at a 24 percent clip, the highest rate in the American League.
This will be Weaver?s MLB debut. Since returning from a spring wrist injury, Weaver has been terrific. He posted a 1.40 ERA in 12 Double-A starts before making his Triple-A debut on Monday. He went six scoreless innings and scattered two hits...
Weaver?s fastball velocity ticked up this season to 93-94 mph, perhaps because his arm was fresher, and he?s touched as high as 98 mph. His changeup is his best secondary pitch and his newfound cutter has helped him neutralize lefthanded hitters, who batted .310 against him last season, but are hitting just .220 this season. He combines excellent stuff with plus control, as he?s walked just 1.6 batters per nine as a pro.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Because both Reyes and Weaver have had abbreviated seasons, they don?t face the innings limits that would normally be placed on young pitchers. Weaver has made just one start at Triple-A, but his advanced control makes him more ready to contribute at the big league level than many young pitchers with much more Triple-A experience. Rookie starting pitchers are often erratic from start to start, but the combination of a solid team and solid control gives Weaver a chance to make a significant impact both in real life and fantasy terms over the final third of the season.
Kyle Hendricks - Seven earned runs in his last 10 starts is absurd.
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over
The Minnesota Twins are the best ?OVER? team in the Majors vs right handed pitchers cashing it at a 65% clip. They also have the worst winning percentage in baseball against right handed pitchers which means their games go ?Over? because the other team puts up their fair share of runs. I like the Royals to do that here tonight. The Royals have won 6 of 7 this year against the Twins and have scored 4 or more runs in all 7 games. One of those games was a Dillon Gee and Tyler Duffey matchup where the final score was 7-5 (OVER). The score was 5-4 after the 4th inning. Current members of the Twins are hitting .385 (.450 wOBA) vs Gee. Current members of the Royals are hitting .364 (.415 wOBA) vs Duffey. Opposing batters are hitting over .320 at Minnesota vs Duffey. If that?s not bad, the Twins bullpen has used 7 pitchers and 283 pitches in the last 3 days and 9 pitchers with 370 pitches the last 5 days. The Royals lineup is starting to hit better, especially their #1 and #2 hitters. The Twins have given up at least 7 runs in their last 7 games. Dillon Gee for the Royals is nothing more than a fill in starter and I have to expect him to give up his fair share of runs. The Royals bullpen has been decent lately, but is still prone to blow a lead and the Twins bullpen has an ERA of 5.40/ 4.90 FIP the last 7 days.
Dan Straily - 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Okay. I know there are going to be some of you that swear by Straily, and why wouldn't you? He's been doing great for your team and you think it's crazy that I don't even include him on The List. Here's how I see this. Owning Straily right now is like you're playing Blackjack and the dealer keeps busting. To you it seems that this game is super easy and no doubt you should keep playing. I see that he has a 4.61 FIP (5.02 xFIP!) with a poor 3.43 BB/9 as he's an extreme anti-groundballer (32.2%) with hard contact up the wazoo (32.1%). Still want to keep making that bet?
Dan Straily sports a 1.93 ERA and 0.76 WHIP so far in the second half, and he'll carry those numbers into a road matchup with the Brewers, who strike out more than any team in baseball against righties (26 percent) and sport a bottom-five wRC+ (86).
deGrom is 1-0, 0.44 in his last three starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12. Mets are 8-3 in his home starts.
San Diego lost 12 of last 17 road games; six of Padres? last eight games went over. Mets are 4-12 in last 16 games; seven of last eight games at Citi Field went over.
Hamels has picked up a quality start in four of his five outings since the All-Star break and has a 1.83 ERA over that span. The Rangers have won 10 of his last 12 starts, and they are 16-6 overall in his starts this year.
PLAY: CINCINNATI 1ST HALF
Those who value metrics are likely going to cringe at this play. Since I adhere to focusing on those numbers myself, I can certainly understand any disdain for this selection. Based on the key analytics, Dan Straily has been getting blessed with some exceptionally good fortune of late. At some point that?s supposed to stop, and a regression is supposed to take place. Maybe that happens tonight at Milwaukee, but I?ll be making a bet that it won?t.
The fact is Straily is on a roll. Sure, some of the data says fluke, such as a ludicrously low BABIP in his last three starts. But the Reds keep winning when Straily takes the mound, with the current run at five straight winners. I?m not looking to get in the way of that nice run.
There?s no question that Brewers righty Zach Davies has superior metrics to Straily, and Davies is beginning to look like a guy Milwaukee can count on as a decent mid-rotation starting piece. I?m definitely not making this an anti-Davies play, as he?s been pretty solid for the Brewers.
I like the Cincinnati offense right now. They?re hitting, and even though this team was basically eliminated as a contender during spring training, the Reds haven?t been mailing it in. Neither have the Brewers, who were pretty much in the same boat. But the deadline deals did hurt this this roster, and I would submit that at this point, the Reds might actually be a stronger overall squad than the Brewers.
This is as F5 as it gets, as that Cincinnati bullpen remains a liability. It?s not as inept as it was earlier in the campaign, but the Reds relief corps is still very untrustworthy. So I?ll once again limit this to a first half only wager. Lucky or not, I?ll buy Straily to keep his roll going and the F5 bet is on the Reds.
The Giants ace draws a home start against Baltimore. The Orioles obviously have much more firepower than the Padres, but they've been one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching this season (82 wRC+). They also strike out 22 percent of the time. Bumgarner is one of the best and safest pitchers in baseball, and that's only amplified when he's pitching at home. In 12 starts at AT&T Park this season, Bumgarner owns a 1.59 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 10.1 K/9,
Gausman is 1-2, 5.63 in his last three starts; seven of his last nine stayed under. Orioles lost eight of his last nine road starts.
Bumgarner is 0-3, 4.50 in his last five starts; five of his last six stayed under. Giants are 7-5 in his home starts.
Orioles are 7-5 in their last 13 games; under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games. Giants are 8-17 in last 25 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Cowboys vs. Rams
Play: Rams -5
Teddy is coming off a truly epic NFL campaign and he picked up right where he left off; now 1-0 in 2016 after cashing with the Patriots on Thursday. Teddy is VERY selective in August, betting only where he finds STRONG information - not silly opinions. Don?t miss a single winner all weekend long!
If you?ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you?ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium. That won?t be the case on Saturday Night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn?t taking this preseason home opener lightly. After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there?s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA. His quote: ?(We?re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team?s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.?
Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there?s no question that LA has expectations this August. Dallas does not. The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 margin. They lost all four preseason games in 2014 by five points or more, including an ugly 27-7 Week 1 blowout loss. In fact, their last Week 1 preseason win came back in 2012, with a 3-0 victory over Oakland. I?m confident that three points won?t be enough for Dallas to win or cover this one, and head coach Jason Garrett sure doesn?t seem as if he?s treating this year?s preseason opener any differently!
The Cowboys have a ?top-heavy? roster. They?ve paid their superstars well, but those stars have been injury prone, and the quality depth behind them has been extremely limited. That?s been most obvious at the quarterback position, where it?s going to be Dak Prescott and Jameil Showers for the full 60 minutes on Saturday Night in an effort to keep Tony Romo from taking hits, with backup Kellen Moore already hurt. Prescott will be facing NFL competition for the first time; Showers was in training camp last year but he?s notched just 125 total yards of preseason passing under his belt.
St Louis will be giving a rookie QB ample playing time as well, but that rookie QB was #1 overall draft pick Jared Goff, not a 4th rounder like Prescott. LA will also have Case Keenum starting and Sean Mannion coming off the bench; two veterans who are primed to move the offense. Even with the pointspread creeping higher as we approach kickoff, this is a classic preseason contest where one team gives a sh** and the other team just wants to get out of town healthy?
