5:00 PM NBA [604] Los Angeles Sparks -5-105
4:05 PM MLB [956] TOTAL u8-105 (Cincinnati Reds vrs San Francisco Giants) (Bonilla/Moore)
4:05 PM MLB [958] Saint Louis Cardinals -107 ( J Lester - L / C Martinez - R )
1:05 PM MLB [967] Seattle Mariners +138 ( R Weber - R / M Stroman - R )
4:10 PM MLB [970] TOTAL u9-105 (Minnesota Twins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Berrios/Clevinger)
12:30 PM SOC [200130] Stoke City +0.5 +124 (soccer - ENGLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE)
1 unit bet pays 75 ....betdsi line....evening parlay later
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Rays vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox
Lefty pitcher Chris Sale has showed nonstop progress with his great skills and a guy who is always a threat for 12+ Ks /game where he gets in the groove. The last time Boston faced the Rays - Boston was in their pedal to medal mindset - and the Sox were fantastic. It is hard to bet against Boston and Sale here.
I'm actually kind of taken back that the Rays have struggled so badly in the W dept. Tampa Bay is 4th in the AL East for a reason - because they don't hit well enough or pitch for that matter. Boston is gong to win this easily - walking away here on Saturday afternoon.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +161
I know Ryan Weber struggled badly in spring training this season and has yet to impress consistently at the big league level but he certainly responded well after a rough March in spring action! Weber has been pitching at the highest level of the minors, AAA, and has gone 2-0 with a 0.85 ERA and a .180 batting average against in his 6 games (5 starts) at the AAA level this season. He has earned this start today and, the way Weber is throwing, I would not be surprised to see him enjoy solid success against the Blue Jays today. As for Toronto, Marcus Stroman takes the mound and though he has a low ERA on the season he has been giving up a lot of hits. Also, the right-hander's strikeout numbers have been trending downward. Basically, Stroman has been pitching to a lot of contact and that works well against most teams but that could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that had been red before some struggles in the first two games of this series. The M's are 12-6 in recent seasons when off of a shutout loss and had averaged 7 runs per game in going 6-2 in their 8 games prior to yesterday's 4-0 loss. The Blue Jays are an ugly 5-10 this season when off of a win. Plenty of big dog value on the Mariners here and they are absolutely worth a look in ultra early Saturday action.
Mike Clevinger ? 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I was planning on leading with Clevinger (Fast came up with ?7th Heavinger?, solid), but then I remembered this was a spot start since Kluber is expected to return this week and all. But, this certainly put Clevinger on your map if you didn?t know much about him before. I?ve been intrigued with Mike for a bit, as his repertoire (and hair) reminds me a ton of Jacob deGrom. The problem is that he lacks the finesse of deGrom, making me concerned that he can produce 0 ER starts often. He has the deep repertoire and velocity to make it happen, he just needs that extra layer of polish. It could be a small mechanical tweak, a mental adjustment, whatever, and if he does show up one day spotting corners and flowing through his repertoire like his gorgeous hair (did I mention he has a lot of hair?), then I?ll be all over him. Until then though, I think he?s too big of a risk in a 12-teamer if he gets a secure spot in the rotation.
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Under 8?
The Kansas City Royals are dead last in the MLB with only 106 runs scored through 35 games. They won Friday's matchup with the Baltimore Orioles 3-2, and I think we'll see another low-scoring contest Saturday night.
The Royals' Nathan Karns (2-2, 4.58 ERA) has allowed just one run on five hits through 12 innings of work home at Kauffman Stadium this season. He's struck out 17 through 12 1/3 frames while allowing just a pair of runs on seven hits in his last two starts overall. The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his second start of the year. He missed the first five weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury but worked five shutout innings against the White Sox to earn a win in his season debut on Sunday.
Under is 8-1 in Tillmans last nine road starts. Under is 6-1 in Royals last seven home games. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.
Baltimore's ace Chris Tillman made his 2017 debut after rehabbing from a shoulder injury, and though he was limited to just five innings of work he looked to be in midseason form. Tillman allowed just three hits in the Orioles' 4-0 blanking of the White Sox in his stint last Sunday. Now that he's back, check out these numbers: Chris Tillman's teams' record is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 (+11.3 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Kansas City's offense is so weak it's helpless and Tillman should have no problem mowing down the league's 30th ranked team in runs scored. Include the O's in your MLB picks for Saturday night.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -104
New York has lost two straight and the Mets have lost their closer, Jeurys Familia, for an extended amount of time due to a blood clot in his shoulder. Robert Gsellman has a 6.54 ERA, but has been blessed with a lot of run support for a 2-2 win-loss record this season. Gsellman has allowed 13 runs (nine earned) and 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings on the road and will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. Zach Davies has settled down after a rough start to the season and Milwaukee has won his last four starts, including a 6-2 win at Pittsburgh when he allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five while scoring a total of 32 runs. Davis has an extra day of rest and Milwaukee has won six of his last eight starts with five days of rest dating to last season.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Under 9
The Milwaukee Brewers are off to a nice start and they have their hitters to mostly thank. However, they've slowed down offensively of late and teams are starting to pitch around slugger Eric Thames. The Mets have also had trouble getting runs lately and that's more to do with injuries than anything else. When you're missing guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and David Wright, your production as a team is going to suffer. We have two underrated starting pitchers slated to go in this Saturday matchup - Robert Gsellman and Zach Davies. Gsellman has a bloated ERA, but his peripherals are much better. He doesn't give up too many free passes, but he needs to avoid the home run ball. Davies is sort of like Kyle Hendricks-lite, as he knows how to pitch but doesn't have overwhelming stuff. I don't expect either team to explode in this one, so we're on the UNDER in our Free Play selection for Saturday.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB?
Neither the pitching nor the defense will be anything special in Miami this evening, which makes it difficult for either offense to get shut down. So with merelygetting both the Braves and Marlins to four runs each guaranteeing a win, it will be #952 Miami/Atlanta Over (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket, with 8.5 available across the board in the early trading. One team has to be held to three or less for this ticket to lose, and even if that happens we can still cash if the other side has a break-out.
The problems with the Marlins infield were noted as one of the lead topics for this edition, and that will not help the struggling Edinson Volquez, working for the first time in 12 days after an issue with his right thumb. There isn?t much to like from his arsenal, with the consistency of ERA at 4.71, FIP 4.88, xFIP 4.57 and SIERA 4.97 accurately reflecting his downward career arc ? for the second season in a row all categories are more than a half run above league average, and his BB% and GB% are both at career lows. Even if Volquez brings his best stuff he is not likely to eat many innings, and a bullpen geared towards getting contact outs (tied for #25 in K%) does not get aided by the subpar infield defense behind them.
The reputation of Julio Teheran helps to keep this price point down, but at this stage there may be some cause for concern. His average fastball is down nearly a full mph from 2016, and Teheran is off of his career norms across the board -
K% BB% GB% SWS%
Career 20.8 6.7 37.1 10.4
2017 16.9 11.2 31.7 9.2
The Marlins read him extremely well in 2016, 13 runs on 22 hits, with four home runs, over 17.1 IP, and much like Volquez even if Teheran brings his best stuff he is not likely to work deep into the game, averaging just 5.2 IPS to this stage. That brings a subpar Braves bullpen into play, and the opportunity for a crooked inning in the latter stages as well. Both offenses generated double-figure hits last night, including four different players hitting a HR, and there should be plenty of opportunities to generate runs in this one.
PADRES AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: PADRES -133
If you?d have told me prior to the start of the season I?d even consider laying this kind of price with the Padres at home, I?d have been skeptical. On the road, it wouldn?t even be a consideration.
But as lousy as the Padres are, they?re looking like a right side here. Trevor Cahill is on a phenomenal roll, and he?s matched up against an overmatched rookie in Dylan Covey.
Aside from that, I can?t say much positive about the Friars. But in addition to a badly struggling starter on the mound in Covey, the Chisox have a multitude of other problems right now to boot.
They?ve lost six straight. Chicago is getting short in the bullpen with Nate Jones having joined Zack Putnam and Jake Petricka on the disabled list. Geo Soto is now also back on the DL and shortstop Tim Anderson is away from the team this weekend.
The main deal here is Cahill, who aside from occasional control lapses, is doing just about everything right. The White Sox look like an ideal opponent for Cahill, as they?re not at all disciplined on offense, with the worst BB rate in the majors. I?ll bank on Cahill maintaining his roll, and if he does, even the Padres should be able to do enough with Covey to win as road chalk.
Tigers vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The LA Angels had been held to one run in each of their previous two games (including in a 7-1 loss Thursday night against Detroit) but exploded for 14 hits en route to a 7-0 triumph over the Tigers on Friday night. Mike Trout was back in center field for LA after returning from a hamstring injury as the designated hitter on Thursday. He had a two-run HR, giving him a hit in 18 of his last 19 games. J.D. Martinez was back to the lineup Friday for the Tigers and went 1-for-3 in his season debut. Martinez had been sidelined since suffering a strained ligament in his right foot during spring training. The Tigers fall to 3-4 on their nine-game road trip and are 17-17 on the season, in third-place in the AL Central but just two back of the first-place Twins.The Angels happen to be in second place in the AL West but at 18-20, are already eight games back of the first place Astros!
The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-2 & 4.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Tigers up against Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.31 ERA) of the Angels. Norris has surrendered four ERs in three of his last four outings, including a no-decision at Oakland on Sunday in which he yielded five runs over just 4 2/3 innings. He has worked fewer than five innings in each of those three starts and has not lasted more than six since his season debut (6 1/3). Norris will be facing Los Angeles for the first time in his career. Nolasco has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season but has won only two of those contests. He settled for a no-decision at Oakland on Monday, despite giving up just two runs on five hits while striking out a season-high 10 in seven innings. Nolasco has made nine career starts against Detroit, going 2-4 with a 4.09 ERA (teams are 3-6).
The pick: Norris was traded to the Detroit Tigers along with Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt in exchange for David Price back in 2015 and was considered the "key player" in that deal according to the Tigers. However, the Tigers announced that Norris would start the 2016 season on the disabled list, due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. Norris would make just 13 starts in 2016, finishing the season with a 4?2 record and a 3.38 ERA (Tigers were 8-5 in his starts). Much was expected from him in 2017 but so far, that hasn't been the case. Nolasco's looked good in three of his last four outings, posting a 2.41 ERA in those three, along with a 17-2 KW ratio. I'll side with the Angels.
Pitchers to stream
Trevor Cahill (R), 42 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox: Cahill's ownership percentage is on the rise. Thanks in part to more reliance on his curveball as a put-away pitch, Cahill sports an 11.2 K/9 through his first six starts. In fact, only twice over the last 10 seasons has a pitcher held a whiff rate of 30 percent with a GB rate over 50 percent (surprise, surprise -- it's Clayton Kershaw in both instances). Cahill, meanwhile, currently has a 30 percent whiff rate and a 57 percent GB rate. Over his last four outings, he's allowed one or zero runs three times. Look for Cahill's run of success to continue against a White Sox club that's been the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching, sporting a 67 wRC+ to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate.
Matt Moore (L), 36 percent, San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: Moore has had a rough go of it this season, as his 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP can attest. Most of that damage, however, has come on road. When pitching at AT&T Park this year, the lefty owns a nice 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 20 2/3 frames. That's where Moore will be toeing the rubber on Saturday, squaring off against a Reds squad that's hit well this year but will be dealing with a huge park downgrade leaving Great American Ballpark.
Nate Karns (R), 12 percent, Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: Karns is also benefiting from a significant park downgrade, as the Orioles trade in Camden Yards for Kauffman Stadium. That won't help an offense that's already middle-of-the-road versus right-handed pitching. Karns' 4.58 ERA may be less than desirable, but a 3.64 xFIP suggests he's had some bad luck. More importantly, the righty's 9.2 K/9 combined with a 57 percent ground ball rate is a skill set worth investing in.
Zach Davies (R), 14 percent, Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: The 5.60 ERA is ugly, but Davies has settled down of late, going 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 9.2 K/9 over his last three outings. Miller Park is a terrible venue for pitchers, so there's still risk here, but a matchup against the Mets, who are below average against righty pitching, is far from intimidating.
Pitchers to avoid
Julio Teheran (R), 89 percent, Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: It might be best to take a break from Teheran for a while. The right-hander has failed to register a quality start in three of his last four outings, and he's not missing enough bats (6.7 K/9) to compensate for his struggles. The Marlins don't have a great lineup, but they make a lot of contact and have been an above-average offense so far in May.
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We see value in the (954) Nationals RL -1.5 (+105) over (953) Phillies tonight in the Nation?s Capitol. Tanner Roark continues to show increasing progress throughout the season holding these Phillies to 2 hits and zero earned runs over 6 innings last Sunday in Philadelphia. Conversely, Nick Pivetta gave up 4 earned runs off 9 hits over 5 innings a week ago Friday to the Nationals. Pivetta?s FIP was 9.0 in that contest and his HR/FB rate 60.% while giving up 3 gopher balls to the Nats.
We see a significant advantage in the Bull Pens, so we are looking at a full 9 inning play on this game. Both Pen?s are rested with the Nats having 2 days off and the Phillies 3 days off. That being said, the Phillies Pen has struggled over the past 2 games giving up 11 runs over their last 8 innings.
Our only caveat is the bats slowing down a bit for the Nats. RAW OFFENSE for the last 30/14/7 days is 6.1/5.1/4.7. Although RAW OFFENSE vs RHP is 5.9 for the season. We feel like this pitching matchup and the opportunity to get to the pen early (Pivetta av. 5.0 innings per start) will give opportunities to the Nats bats and they will take advantage.
We see enough value in the +105 to spot the Phillies 1.5 runs in this contest.
ARIZONA -1? +135 over Pittsburgh
The Pirates might be the worst team in baseball. They don?t score runs, they have a lousy six wins in 21 road games and they don't do anything particularly well. Perhaps the worst part about this team is that they?re getting used to losing and don't seem to care. Pittsburgh opened a three-game set in Arizona last night with an 11-4 loss after getting destroyed by the Dodgers in L.A in a three-game set in which they were outscored 21-6. The Pirates will come to the park today expecting to lose because that?s their mindset these days.
Trevor Williams makes his second career start after also getting torched in Los Angeles in his MLB starting debut. Williams lasted a mere three innings and surrendered seven hits and six runs. All told, he?s appeared in five games for the Pirates this year and it?s getting worse. Williams has walked eight, struck out six and comes in with a 2.67 WHIP. In his seven appearances thus far, six have been at pitcher-friendly venues but this one is not. Aside from being shell-shocked, Williams? confidence is also shot and his chances of getting through even four innings appear to be remote at best. There is nothing good about the Pirates today.
Taijuan Walker went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 134 innings for the Mariners last year and that?s not good when considering he pitched most of his innings in pitcher?s parks. However, flat feet apparently caused foot and ankle issues that led to flat skills in the 2nd half but his 1st half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Walker has yet to post a full season ERA under 4.00 but his xERA says it's there for the taking and now he's on the precipice of bigger and better things. Walker spent the offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and it?s working. His previously rarely used sinker and slider are now much bigger parts of his arsenal (2016 usage: sinker 2%, slider 1%) and that?s working too. Walker has 40 K?s in 40 frames with just 12 walks issued. He?s throwing hard and his K?s have the full support of a 13% swing and miss rate. He?ll now face what appears to be an unmotivated team that is just going through the motions while pitching for an enthusiastic bunch that can?t wait to play some more ball. Can this one go any other way? We trust not.
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
The Buccos are just a bad baseball team right now. They've lost six in a row while getting outscored 40-13 in the process. Meanwhile, the team they lost to last night is now 21-16 as the respective run differentials continue to go in completely opposite directions. While Arizona has outscored its opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season (3rd best in the N.L.), Pittsburgh has posted a -41 diff, which is the N.L.'s third worst.
Really scary is that the four runs scored by the Pirates last night were their most in any game during this six-game slide. Given the way Trevor Williams pitched his first time out, the run suppression side of the ledger seems to be in some trouble today as well. Williams' 2017 season debut saw him give up eight runs, in just three innings, and that was at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Chase Field, home to the D'backs, tends to favor the hitters - especially the ones wearing the home uniforms. Arizona is averaging a healthy 6.3 rpg here so far w/ a .304 team batting average! They scored 11 times in last night's win. Again, keep in mind, that's nearly the same amount of runs as the Pirates have scored in their last six games - combined.
Arizona won't be lacking in motivation tonight either after Chris Ianettea took a fastball to the head last night. I also like the fact that starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his seven starts this year. These are clearly two clubs trending in opposite directions right now.
SENATORS AT PENGUINS
PLAY: UNDER 5.5
The Ottawa Senators look to continue their magical playoff run as they open the Eastern Conference Finals series against the heavily favored defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Senators are big dogs for obvious reasons. They?re even bigger dogs, however, if they end up playing end to end wide open hockey against the potent Penguins.
Ottawa?s one shot in this series, at least from this vantage point, is to turn the games into grind it out affairs where tight checking and conservative play is a must.
I would think Ottawa?s best opportunity to implement that game plan is in this opening game. There?s no way I?ll suggest the Penguins are going to be flat after eliminating the Capitals. But if there?s one game where Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest, this ought to be it.
Tight defense, a slower pace and good goaltending are the elements that need to be there for the Sens to shock the Pens. I expect that game plan to be in evidence here and if it plays out that way, goals might be a bit tough to come by. That being the case, I?ll gamble on the Under 5.5 juiced in the series opener.
Series - Ottawa +255 over PITTSBURGH
Series wager. If you?ve been listening to sports radio or the talking heads on the TV networks, there seems to be little reason to play this Eastern Conference Final at all. These are the same people that all said Washington and Chicago will be meeting in the Stanley Cup Final. They simply can?t wrap their heads around a lower seed beating a higher seed and certainly can?t wrap their heads around the champs losing to the last standing Canadian team that was predicted to be the first Canadian team knocked out of the tournament.
When healthy, Pittsburgh is the best team in the NHL. When fully loaded, the Pens have speed, defense, goaltending, role players, star power and intangibles. They?re well coached and Sidney Crosby does things offensively that other great players haven?t even thought of yet. If you think Crosby is overrated, you couldn?t be more wrong about anything. Back in February, the NHL revealed the 100 greatest players of all time and we promise you that Evgeni Malkin was superior to at least 20 of them. That he was not included on that list is remarkable. Yes indeed folks, the Penguins are the champs and deserved to be last year when they were healthy and steamrolled through four grueling rounds while making both the Rangers and Sharks look like minor league clubs. However, these are not the same Penguins that rolled through the competition on their way to the Cup last season.
Despite injuries to key players like Kris Letang, Trevor Daley and of course Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have persevered despite being outplayed nearly every single night of these playoffs. The Pens have allowed over 35 shots per game in the post-season, which is the most of any squad that made it to the dance. Pittsburgh might be loaded with star forwards but they have also been the beneficiary of suspect opposition goaltending while Marc-Andre Fleury has bailed out their nonexistent defence time and time again. In Games 5 and 6 against the Capitals, the chinks in Fleury?s armour began to show, as he gave up nine goals on 58 shots in those two games for a combined save percentage of .845. He had a rough patch in the Blue Jackets series as well. There?s no steady sailing with MAF, as he?s either been out of this world or godawful. Let?s not forget that Fleury was replaced by a rookie last season and lost his starting job. The point is that he can lose it at any time.
Under the hood, it does not look good for the Pens either. Pittsburgh is dead last of all the playoff teams in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage at 41.99 while scoring on nearly 10 percent (9.87) of their shots taken 5-on-5. During the regular season, the Penguins were a top five team in that stat category with a 8.58 shooting percentage. Pittsburgh?s shooting percentage in the playoffs has been off the charts, thus regression is very likely. Meanwhile, the Senators held a puck possession edge on Boston in the first round and Boston was the NHL?s top possession team going during the regular season. They also created more scoring chances against New York in round two and held a significant Corsi For edge in that series as well.
Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby were uncharacteristically off their games by a wide margin when facing the Pens in the first and second rounds respectively. Holtby looked nervous and played nervous while Bobrovsky looked worse than Antti Niemi. Each and every night of these playoffs, the Penguins were the second best team on the ice in just about every single period and clearly in every game. What has defined the Penguins this playoff season is brutal giveaways, sloppy play, weak breakouts out of their own end and the only reason they made it out of the first and second rounds is due to their extreme puck luck. Washington hit 14 more goalposts and crossbars than the Penguins in the seven game series.
Finally, we have the letdown factor after the Penguins blew a 3-1 series lead that forced them to play a Game 7 in Washington. The letdown factor would not come into play had the Penguins not won the Cup last year but they did. That at least takes away some of their hunger to continue. Despite beating the Caps, that series was very physical with the Pens? captain taking the brunt of many of the blows. The Penguins wanted to beat Washington badly and now anything more might be anti-climactic. One has to question how much the Pens have left in the tank after 12 months of basically non-stop hockey. The Pens sent six players to the World Cup of Hockey in September after that gruelling Cup run. Connor Sheary and their captain are both one hit away from missing more time but we?re not counting on that. We?re counting on what we?ve seen in 12 playoff games from the Penguins and that is at least 10 very fortunate victories while getting badly outplayed by both the Jackets and Capitals. This is a dead-tired and banged up team that is out of gas and that does not have that ficticious ?on? switch available.
The Senators figure to be more energetic and hungry here. After escaping the physical Bruins and their monster puck possession numbers, the Senators took care of the speedy Rangers and now look primed to make a run to their first Stanley Cup Finals in a decade. Coach Buy Boucher and his team have been playing the ?nobody gives us a chance? card these entire playoffs and it has created a group with a chip on its shoulder. For whatever reason, both the market and the so-called experts do not like these Senators despite being one of the NHL?s most consistent teams since the puck dropped in October. It may surprise you to learn that Ottawa had the second most victories (17) in the league against top-10 teams. Only the Caps were better with 18 and Washington was a -170 favorite to beat Pittsburgh last round.
Overshadowed by the darling Leafs and Oilers, the Sens can?t seem to break through as ?Canada?s? team. Before Game 7 between the Caps and Pens, we heard two prominent hockey writers debating the Sens ?shocking? run and both were convinced that regardless of the outcome, Ottawa?s dream season would end in the Eastern Conference Finals. If both teams were hungry and healthy, Ottawa would be up against it here but that is not even close to being the case. At this very moment, Ottawa is in a much better position to advance than the Penguins. Ottawa?s defence blows away anything the Pens can put on the ice at this point. Ottawa runs out three very solid lines that are all capable of scoring and Craig Anderson can get just as hot as any goaltender in the league. Beyond the X?s and O?s, which does not favor the Penguins anyway, the Senators have a legit beef with this Penguins? team after Sid the Kid mangled defenseman Marc Methot?s finger in a game earlier this season and we know the Sens have not forgotten Matt Cooke?s skate stomp that severed Karlsson?s Achilles tendon in 2013. There is some bad blood here even if it?s only one-sided, thus the Senators will have no problem finding fuel for their fire. This is a rock-solid, extremely talented Ottawa team with a player that is playing like Bobby Orr and that is no fu**ing joke.
Finally and most importantly is that the line here is complete lunacy. We?re strongly suggesting that Ottawa has a better chance to win than Pittsburgh based on everything we?ve seen this playoff season from both teams. Pittsburgh can?t get out of its own end these days and almost everyone up front is burned out while the Senators are not. By far, the best player this playoff year has been Karlsson and when you have a player playing like he is, look out (see Wayne Gretzky, Guy Lafleur, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, Bryan Trottier and others). This line is based on results and perception and not performance and we?ve pointed out the flaws in that many times over the years. In terms of value, this is one of, if not the biggest overlay we have seen in a very long time. Again, we?re giving the Senators a better than 50% chance of winning and will play it accordingly. We?ll also play the Senators in each game individually as long as nothing changes. Massive overlay my friends that must be played.
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -4.5
The LA Sparks won it all last season, and the inside presence of both Candance Parker and Nneka Ogwumike will be tough to handle this year. The duo gives the Sparks the only pair of players with an MVP. The loss of Kristi Toliver will be a tough one, as rookie first round draft pick Sydney Wiese is going to have to be a presence from beyond the arc. Seattle was an old team that has started to get young again. Yes, Sue Bird is still around, a link to the past, but Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd offer a promising future for the Storm. I think the Storm is still growing, as their best players are still very young, and the best time to beat them this season will be in the early going.
A welterweight fight with title implications will take place between the surging Demian Maia and Jorge Masvidal while Frankie Edgar will look to turn back the challenge of upstart Yair Rodriguez.
UFC 211 has a ton of intrigue for MMA fans but there?s also value to be found for the gambling community.
For starters, the heavyweight title fight is an interesting one. The last time these two met in 2014, dos Santos won a hard-fought unanimous decision victory. Since then, their careers have gone in different directions. Miocic kicked off a streak of four straight wins while claiming the UFC heavyweight title along the way. As for dos Santos, he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem but bounced back with a victory against Ben Rothwell in April. But because their initial battle was so close, the line between the two has become quite the interesting one. Miocic originally opened up as a -161 favorite but now finds himself in a near toss up with the line shriveling up to a -125. Meanwhile, dos Santos currently sits as a +105 underdog at 5Dimes.
Although the heavyweight title has become an oversized hot potato, the fact remains that Miocic has been on a surge and should be a bigger favorite than he is. If their last battle was any indication, Miocic clearly put the MMA world on notice with his performance and has followed through with four consecutive knockout victories against quality opposition. Another indicator is how they fared against a common opponent in Alistair Overeem. Miocic put away Overeem inside of a round at UFC 203 last September while dos Santos was brutally knocked out in December of 2015 by the same opponent.
There?s simply no way you should avoid taking Miocic at those odds.
In the case of Jedrzejczyk vs. Andrade, the line has also sank for Jedrzejczyk at -150 after starting at -175 while Andrade is currently a +130 underdog. While Andrade has looked great since debuting at strawweight three fights ago, the champion is going to hold a significant height and reach advantage as well as being a more polished striker with excellent conditioning. As long as Jedrzejczyk can survive the initial onslaught, she should be able to control a fading Andrade with her wicked standup as the fight drags on. It could be a tough go for the champion but the value is on her side at -150.
Another line that comes off as surprising is Rodriguez vs. Edgar. Currently, Edgar is a narrow favorite at -125 while Rodriguez is at +105. The line is a bit of an eyebrow raiser considering that Rodriguez hasn?t faced anybody close to the caliber of Edgar in his career. He is unbeaten during his UFC tenure but when the most significant name on your resume is B.J. Penn, there have to be questions. Meanwhile, Edgar has proven to only be vulnerable against champions. All four of losses since 2012 have come against two opponents: Benson Henderson and Jose Aldo. And both were title fights. He?s proven to be nearly invincible otherwise with victories over Chad Mendes, Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens, among others. An argument can be made about Edgar?s age (35) but until it can be proven that he?s showing signs of slowing down, we?ll have to side with Edgar here.
All in all, there are some intriguing lines here but your best bet is going with favorites with very narrow lines in Miocic (-125), Jedrzejczyk (-150) and Edgar (-125).
4:05 PM MLB [956] TOTAL u8-105 (Cincinnati Reds vrs San Francisco Giants) (Bonilla/Moore)
4:05 PM MLB [958] Saint Louis Cardinals -107 ( J Lester - L / C Martinez - R )
1:05 PM MLB [967] Seattle Mariners +138 ( R Weber - R / M Stroman - R )
4:10 PM MLB [970] TOTAL u9-105 (Minnesota Twins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Berrios/Clevinger)
12:30 PM SOC [200130] Stoke City +0.5 +124 (soccer - ENGLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE)
1 unit bet pays 75 ....betdsi line....evening parlay later
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Rays vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox
Lefty pitcher Chris Sale has showed nonstop progress with his great skills and a guy who is always a threat for 12+ Ks /game where he gets in the groove. The last time Boston faced the Rays - Boston was in their pedal to medal mindset - and the Sox were fantastic. It is hard to bet against Boston and Sale here.
I'm actually kind of taken back that the Rays have struggled so badly in the W dept. Tampa Bay is 4th in the AL East for a reason - because they don't hit well enough or pitch for that matter. Boston is gong to win this easily - walking away here on Saturday afternoon.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +161
I know Ryan Weber struggled badly in spring training this season and has yet to impress consistently at the big league level but he certainly responded well after a rough March in spring action! Weber has been pitching at the highest level of the minors, AAA, and has gone 2-0 with a 0.85 ERA and a .180 batting average against in his 6 games (5 starts) at the AAA level this season. He has earned this start today and, the way Weber is throwing, I would not be surprised to see him enjoy solid success against the Blue Jays today. As for Toronto, Marcus Stroman takes the mound and though he has a low ERA on the season he has been giving up a lot of hits. Also, the right-hander's strikeout numbers have been trending downward. Basically, Stroman has been pitching to a lot of contact and that works well against most teams but that could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that had been red before some struggles in the first two games of this series. The M's are 12-6 in recent seasons when off of a shutout loss and had averaged 7 runs per game in going 6-2 in their 8 games prior to yesterday's 4-0 loss. The Blue Jays are an ugly 5-10 this season when off of a win. Plenty of big dog value on the Mariners here and they are absolutely worth a look in ultra early Saturday action.
Mike Clevinger ? 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I was planning on leading with Clevinger (Fast came up with ?7th Heavinger?, solid), but then I remembered this was a spot start since Kluber is expected to return this week and all. But, this certainly put Clevinger on your map if you didn?t know much about him before. I?ve been intrigued with Mike for a bit, as his repertoire (and hair) reminds me a ton of Jacob deGrom. The problem is that he lacks the finesse of deGrom, making me concerned that he can produce 0 ER starts often. He has the deep repertoire and velocity to make it happen, he just needs that extra layer of polish. It could be a small mechanical tweak, a mental adjustment, whatever, and if he does show up one day spotting corners and flowing through his repertoire like his gorgeous hair (did I mention he has a lot of hair?), then I?ll be all over him. Until then though, I think he?s too big of a risk in a 12-teamer if he gets a secure spot in the rotation.
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Under 8?
The Kansas City Royals are dead last in the MLB with only 106 runs scored through 35 games. They won Friday's matchup with the Baltimore Orioles 3-2, and I think we'll see another low-scoring contest Saturday night.
The Royals' Nathan Karns (2-2, 4.58 ERA) has allowed just one run on five hits through 12 innings of work home at Kauffman Stadium this season. He's struck out 17 through 12 1/3 frames while allowing just a pair of runs on seven hits in his last two starts overall. The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his second start of the year. He missed the first five weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury but worked five shutout innings against the White Sox to earn a win in his season debut on Sunday.
Under is 8-1 in Tillmans last nine road starts. Under is 6-1 in Royals last seven home games. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.
Baltimore's ace Chris Tillman made his 2017 debut after rehabbing from a shoulder injury, and though he was limited to just five innings of work he looked to be in midseason form. Tillman allowed just three hits in the Orioles' 4-0 blanking of the White Sox in his stint last Sunday. Now that he's back, check out these numbers: Chris Tillman's teams' record is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 (+11.3 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Kansas City's offense is so weak it's helpless and Tillman should have no problem mowing down the league's 30th ranked team in runs scored. Include the O's in your MLB picks for Saturday night.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -104
New York has lost two straight and the Mets have lost their closer, Jeurys Familia, for an extended amount of time due to a blood clot in his shoulder. Robert Gsellman has a 6.54 ERA, but has been blessed with a lot of run support for a 2-2 win-loss record this season. Gsellman has allowed 13 runs (nine earned) and 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings on the road and will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. Zach Davies has settled down after a rough start to the season and Milwaukee has won his last four starts, including a 6-2 win at Pittsburgh when he allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five while scoring a total of 32 runs. Davis has an extra day of rest and Milwaukee has won six of his last eight starts with five days of rest dating to last season.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Under 9
The Milwaukee Brewers are off to a nice start and they have their hitters to mostly thank. However, they've slowed down offensively of late and teams are starting to pitch around slugger Eric Thames. The Mets have also had trouble getting runs lately and that's more to do with injuries than anything else. When you're missing guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and David Wright, your production as a team is going to suffer. We have two underrated starting pitchers slated to go in this Saturday matchup - Robert Gsellman and Zach Davies. Gsellman has a bloated ERA, but his peripherals are much better. He doesn't give up too many free passes, but he needs to avoid the home run ball. Davies is sort of like Kyle Hendricks-lite, as he knows how to pitch but doesn't have overwhelming stuff. I don't expect either team to explode in this one, so we're on the UNDER in our Free Play selection for Saturday.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB?
Neither the pitching nor the defense will be anything special in Miami this evening, which makes it difficult for either offense to get shut down. So with merelygetting both the Braves and Marlins to four runs each guaranteeing a win, it will be #952 Miami/Atlanta Over (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket, with 8.5 available across the board in the early trading. One team has to be held to three or less for this ticket to lose, and even if that happens we can still cash if the other side has a break-out.
The problems with the Marlins infield were noted as one of the lead topics for this edition, and that will not help the struggling Edinson Volquez, working for the first time in 12 days after an issue with his right thumb. There isn?t much to like from his arsenal, with the consistency of ERA at 4.71, FIP 4.88, xFIP 4.57 and SIERA 4.97 accurately reflecting his downward career arc ? for the second season in a row all categories are more than a half run above league average, and his BB% and GB% are both at career lows. Even if Volquez brings his best stuff he is not likely to eat many innings, and a bullpen geared towards getting contact outs (tied for #25 in K%) does not get aided by the subpar infield defense behind them.
The reputation of Julio Teheran helps to keep this price point down, but at this stage there may be some cause for concern. His average fastball is down nearly a full mph from 2016, and Teheran is off of his career norms across the board -
K% BB% GB% SWS%
Career 20.8 6.7 37.1 10.4
2017 16.9 11.2 31.7 9.2
The Marlins read him extremely well in 2016, 13 runs on 22 hits, with four home runs, over 17.1 IP, and much like Volquez even if Teheran brings his best stuff he is not likely to work deep into the game, averaging just 5.2 IPS to this stage. That brings a subpar Braves bullpen into play, and the opportunity for a crooked inning in the latter stages as well. Both offenses generated double-figure hits last night, including four different players hitting a HR, and there should be plenty of opportunities to generate runs in this one.
PADRES AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: PADRES -133
If you?d have told me prior to the start of the season I?d even consider laying this kind of price with the Padres at home, I?d have been skeptical. On the road, it wouldn?t even be a consideration.
But as lousy as the Padres are, they?re looking like a right side here. Trevor Cahill is on a phenomenal roll, and he?s matched up against an overmatched rookie in Dylan Covey.
Aside from that, I can?t say much positive about the Friars. But in addition to a badly struggling starter on the mound in Covey, the Chisox have a multitude of other problems right now to boot.
They?ve lost six straight. Chicago is getting short in the bullpen with Nate Jones having joined Zack Putnam and Jake Petricka on the disabled list. Geo Soto is now also back on the DL and shortstop Tim Anderson is away from the team this weekend.
The main deal here is Cahill, who aside from occasional control lapses, is doing just about everything right. The White Sox look like an ideal opponent for Cahill, as they?re not at all disciplined on offense, with the worst BB rate in the majors. I?ll bank on Cahill maintaining his roll, and if he does, even the Padres should be able to do enough with Covey to win as road chalk.
Tigers vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The LA Angels had been held to one run in each of their previous two games (including in a 7-1 loss Thursday night against Detroit) but exploded for 14 hits en route to a 7-0 triumph over the Tigers on Friday night. Mike Trout was back in center field for LA after returning from a hamstring injury as the designated hitter on Thursday. He had a two-run HR, giving him a hit in 18 of his last 19 games. J.D. Martinez was back to the lineup Friday for the Tigers and went 1-for-3 in his season debut. Martinez had been sidelined since suffering a strained ligament in his right foot during spring training. The Tigers fall to 3-4 on their nine-game road trip and are 17-17 on the season, in third-place in the AL Central but just two back of the first-place Twins.The Angels happen to be in second place in the AL West but at 18-20, are already eight games back of the first place Astros!
The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-2 & 4.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Tigers up against Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.31 ERA) of the Angels. Norris has surrendered four ERs in three of his last four outings, including a no-decision at Oakland on Sunday in which he yielded five runs over just 4 2/3 innings. He has worked fewer than five innings in each of those three starts and has not lasted more than six since his season debut (6 1/3). Norris will be facing Los Angeles for the first time in his career. Nolasco has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season but has won only two of those contests. He settled for a no-decision at Oakland on Monday, despite giving up just two runs on five hits while striking out a season-high 10 in seven innings. Nolasco has made nine career starts against Detroit, going 2-4 with a 4.09 ERA (teams are 3-6).
The pick: Norris was traded to the Detroit Tigers along with Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt in exchange for David Price back in 2015 and was considered the "key player" in that deal according to the Tigers. However, the Tigers announced that Norris would start the 2016 season on the disabled list, due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. Norris would make just 13 starts in 2016, finishing the season with a 4?2 record and a 3.38 ERA (Tigers were 8-5 in his starts). Much was expected from him in 2017 but so far, that hasn't been the case. Nolasco's looked good in three of his last four outings, posting a 2.41 ERA in those three, along with a 17-2 KW ratio. I'll side with the Angels.
Pitchers to stream
Trevor Cahill (R), 42 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox: Cahill's ownership percentage is on the rise. Thanks in part to more reliance on his curveball as a put-away pitch, Cahill sports an 11.2 K/9 through his first six starts. In fact, only twice over the last 10 seasons has a pitcher held a whiff rate of 30 percent with a GB rate over 50 percent (surprise, surprise -- it's Clayton Kershaw in both instances). Cahill, meanwhile, currently has a 30 percent whiff rate and a 57 percent GB rate. Over his last four outings, he's allowed one or zero runs three times. Look for Cahill's run of success to continue against a White Sox club that's been the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching, sporting a 67 wRC+ to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate.
Matt Moore (L), 36 percent, San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: Moore has had a rough go of it this season, as his 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP can attest. Most of that damage, however, has come on road. When pitching at AT&T Park this year, the lefty owns a nice 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 20 2/3 frames. That's where Moore will be toeing the rubber on Saturday, squaring off against a Reds squad that's hit well this year but will be dealing with a huge park downgrade leaving Great American Ballpark.
Nate Karns (R), 12 percent, Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: Karns is also benefiting from a significant park downgrade, as the Orioles trade in Camden Yards for Kauffman Stadium. That won't help an offense that's already middle-of-the-road versus right-handed pitching. Karns' 4.58 ERA may be less than desirable, but a 3.64 xFIP suggests he's had some bad luck. More importantly, the righty's 9.2 K/9 combined with a 57 percent ground ball rate is a skill set worth investing in.
Zach Davies (R), 14 percent, Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: The 5.60 ERA is ugly, but Davies has settled down of late, going 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 9.2 K/9 over his last three outings. Miller Park is a terrible venue for pitchers, so there's still risk here, but a matchup against the Mets, who are below average against righty pitching, is far from intimidating.
Pitchers to avoid
Julio Teheran (R), 89 percent, Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: It might be best to take a break from Teheran for a while. The right-hander has failed to register a quality start in three of his last four outings, and he's not missing enough bats (6.7 K/9) to compensate for his struggles. The Marlins don't have a great lineup, but they make a lot of contact and have been an above-average offense so far in May.
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We see value in the (954) Nationals RL -1.5 (+105) over (953) Phillies tonight in the Nation?s Capitol. Tanner Roark continues to show increasing progress throughout the season holding these Phillies to 2 hits and zero earned runs over 6 innings last Sunday in Philadelphia. Conversely, Nick Pivetta gave up 4 earned runs off 9 hits over 5 innings a week ago Friday to the Nationals. Pivetta?s FIP was 9.0 in that contest and his HR/FB rate 60.% while giving up 3 gopher balls to the Nats.
We see a significant advantage in the Bull Pens, so we are looking at a full 9 inning play on this game. Both Pen?s are rested with the Nats having 2 days off and the Phillies 3 days off. That being said, the Phillies Pen has struggled over the past 2 games giving up 11 runs over their last 8 innings.
Our only caveat is the bats slowing down a bit for the Nats. RAW OFFENSE for the last 30/14/7 days is 6.1/5.1/4.7. Although RAW OFFENSE vs RHP is 5.9 for the season. We feel like this pitching matchup and the opportunity to get to the pen early (Pivetta av. 5.0 innings per start) will give opportunities to the Nats bats and they will take advantage.
We see enough value in the +105 to spot the Phillies 1.5 runs in this contest.
ARIZONA -1? +135 over Pittsburgh
The Pirates might be the worst team in baseball. They don?t score runs, they have a lousy six wins in 21 road games and they don't do anything particularly well. Perhaps the worst part about this team is that they?re getting used to losing and don't seem to care. Pittsburgh opened a three-game set in Arizona last night with an 11-4 loss after getting destroyed by the Dodgers in L.A in a three-game set in which they were outscored 21-6. The Pirates will come to the park today expecting to lose because that?s their mindset these days.
Trevor Williams makes his second career start after also getting torched in Los Angeles in his MLB starting debut. Williams lasted a mere three innings and surrendered seven hits and six runs. All told, he?s appeared in five games for the Pirates this year and it?s getting worse. Williams has walked eight, struck out six and comes in with a 2.67 WHIP. In his seven appearances thus far, six have been at pitcher-friendly venues but this one is not. Aside from being shell-shocked, Williams? confidence is also shot and his chances of getting through even four innings appear to be remote at best. There is nothing good about the Pirates today.
Taijuan Walker went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 134 innings for the Mariners last year and that?s not good when considering he pitched most of his innings in pitcher?s parks. However, flat feet apparently caused foot and ankle issues that led to flat skills in the 2nd half but his 1st half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Walker has yet to post a full season ERA under 4.00 but his xERA says it's there for the taking and now he's on the precipice of bigger and better things. Walker spent the offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and it?s working. His previously rarely used sinker and slider are now much bigger parts of his arsenal (2016 usage: sinker 2%, slider 1%) and that?s working too. Walker has 40 K?s in 40 frames with just 12 walks issued. He?s throwing hard and his K?s have the full support of a 13% swing and miss rate. He?ll now face what appears to be an unmotivated team that is just going through the motions while pitching for an enthusiastic bunch that can?t wait to play some more ball. Can this one go any other way? We trust not.
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
The Buccos are just a bad baseball team right now. They've lost six in a row while getting outscored 40-13 in the process. Meanwhile, the team they lost to last night is now 21-16 as the respective run differentials continue to go in completely opposite directions. While Arizona has outscored its opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season (3rd best in the N.L.), Pittsburgh has posted a -41 diff, which is the N.L.'s third worst.
Really scary is that the four runs scored by the Pirates last night were their most in any game during this six-game slide. Given the way Trevor Williams pitched his first time out, the run suppression side of the ledger seems to be in some trouble today as well. Williams' 2017 season debut saw him give up eight runs, in just three innings, and that was at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Chase Field, home to the D'backs, tends to favor the hitters - especially the ones wearing the home uniforms. Arizona is averaging a healthy 6.3 rpg here so far w/ a .304 team batting average! They scored 11 times in last night's win. Again, keep in mind, that's nearly the same amount of runs as the Pirates have scored in their last six games - combined.
Arizona won't be lacking in motivation tonight either after Chris Ianettea took a fastball to the head last night. I also like the fact that starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his seven starts this year. These are clearly two clubs trending in opposite directions right now.
SENATORS AT PENGUINS
PLAY: UNDER 5.5
The Ottawa Senators look to continue their magical playoff run as they open the Eastern Conference Finals series against the heavily favored defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Senators are big dogs for obvious reasons. They?re even bigger dogs, however, if they end up playing end to end wide open hockey against the potent Penguins.
Ottawa?s one shot in this series, at least from this vantage point, is to turn the games into grind it out affairs where tight checking and conservative play is a must.
I would think Ottawa?s best opportunity to implement that game plan is in this opening game. There?s no way I?ll suggest the Penguins are going to be flat after eliminating the Capitals. But if there?s one game where Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest, this ought to be it.
Tight defense, a slower pace and good goaltending are the elements that need to be there for the Sens to shock the Pens. I expect that game plan to be in evidence here and if it plays out that way, goals might be a bit tough to come by. That being the case, I?ll gamble on the Under 5.5 juiced in the series opener.
Series - Ottawa +255 over PITTSBURGH
Series wager. If you?ve been listening to sports radio or the talking heads on the TV networks, there seems to be little reason to play this Eastern Conference Final at all. These are the same people that all said Washington and Chicago will be meeting in the Stanley Cup Final. They simply can?t wrap their heads around a lower seed beating a higher seed and certainly can?t wrap their heads around the champs losing to the last standing Canadian team that was predicted to be the first Canadian team knocked out of the tournament.
When healthy, Pittsburgh is the best team in the NHL. When fully loaded, the Pens have speed, defense, goaltending, role players, star power and intangibles. They?re well coached and Sidney Crosby does things offensively that other great players haven?t even thought of yet. If you think Crosby is overrated, you couldn?t be more wrong about anything. Back in February, the NHL revealed the 100 greatest players of all time and we promise you that Evgeni Malkin was superior to at least 20 of them. That he was not included on that list is remarkable. Yes indeed folks, the Penguins are the champs and deserved to be last year when they were healthy and steamrolled through four grueling rounds while making both the Rangers and Sharks look like minor league clubs. However, these are not the same Penguins that rolled through the competition on their way to the Cup last season.
Despite injuries to key players like Kris Letang, Trevor Daley and of course Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have persevered despite being outplayed nearly every single night of these playoffs. The Pens have allowed over 35 shots per game in the post-season, which is the most of any squad that made it to the dance. Pittsburgh might be loaded with star forwards but they have also been the beneficiary of suspect opposition goaltending while Marc-Andre Fleury has bailed out their nonexistent defence time and time again. In Games 5 and 6 against the Capitals, the chinks in Fleury?s armour began to show, as he gave up nine goals on 58 shots in those two games for a combined save percentage of .845. He had a rough patch in the Blue Jackets series as well. There?s no steady sailing with MAF, as he?s either been out of this world or godawful. Let?s not forget that Fleury was replaced by a rookie last season and lost his starting job. The point is that he can lose it at any time.
Under the hood, it does not look good for the Pens either. Pittsburgh is dead last of all the playoff teams in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage at 41.99 while scoring on nearly 10 percent (9.87) of their shots taken 5-on-5. During the regular season, the Penguins were a top five team in that stat category with a 8.58 shooting percentage. Pittsburgh?s shooting percentage in the playoffs has been off the charts, thus regression is very likely. Meanwhile, the Senators held a puck possession edge on Boston in the first round and Boston was the NHL?s top possession team going during the regular season. They also created more scoring chances against New York in round two and held a significant Corsi For edge in that series as well.
Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby were uncharacteristically off their games by a wide margin when facing the Pens in the first and second rounds respectively. Holtby looked nervous and played nervous while Bobrovsky looked worse than Antti Niemi. Each and every night of these playoffs, the Penguins were the second best team on the ice in just about every single period and clearly in every game. What has defined the Penguins this playoff season is brutal giveaways, sloppy play, weak breakouts out of their own end and the only reason they made it out of the first and second rounds is due to their extreme puck luck. Washington hit 14 more goalposts and crossbars than the Penguins in the seven game series.
Finally, we have the letdown factor after the Penguins blew a 3-1 series lead that forced them to play a Game 7 in Washington. The letdown factor would not come into play had the Penguins not won the Cup last year but they did. That at least takes away some of their hunger to continue. Despite beating the Caps, that series was very physical with the Pens? captain taking the brunt of many of the blows. The Penguins wanted to beat Washington badly and now anything more might be anti-climactic. One has to question how much the Pens have left in the tank after 12 months of basically non-stop hockey. The Pens sent six players to the World Cup of Hockey in September after that gruelling Cup run. Connor Sheary and their captain are both one hit away from missing more time but we?re not counting on that. We?re counting on what we?ve seen in 12 playoff games from the Penguins and that is at least 10 very fortunate victories while getting badly outplayed by both the Jackets and Capitals. This is a dead-tired and banged up team that is out of gas and that does not have that ficticious ?on? switch available.
The Senators figure to be more energetic and hungry here. After escaping the physical Bruins and their monster puck possession numbers, the Senators took care of the speedy Rangers and now look primed to make a run to their first Stanley Cup Finals in a decade. Coach Buy Boucher and his team have been playing the ?nobody gives us a chance? card these entire playoffs and it has created a group with a chip on its shoulder. For whatever reason, both the market and the so-called experts do not like these Senators despite being one of the NHL?s most consistent teams since the puck dropped in October. It may surprise you to learn that Ottawa had the second most victories (17) in the league against top-10 teams. Only the Caps were better with 18 and Washington was a -170 favorite to beat Pittsburgh last round.
Overshadowed by the darling Leafs and Oilers, the Sens can?t seem to break through as ?Canada?s? team. Before Game 7 between the Caps and Pens, we heard two prominent hockey writers debating the Sens ?shocking? run and both were convinced that regardless of the outcome, Ottawa?s dream season would end in the Eastern Conference Finals. If both teams were hungry and healthy, Ottawa would be up against it here but that is not even close to being the case. At this very moment, Ottawa is in a much better position to advance than the Penguins. Ottawa?s defence blows away anything the Pens can put on the ice at this point. Ottawa runs out three very solid lines that are all capable of scoring and Craig Anderson can get just as hot as any goaltender in the league. Beyond the X?s and O?s, which does not favor the Penguins anyway, the Senators have a legit beef with this Penguins? team after Sid the Kid mangled defenseman Marc Methot?s finger in a game earlier this season and we know the Sens have not forgotten Matt Cooke?s skate stomp that severed Karlsson?s Achilles tendon in 2013. There is some bad blood here even if it?s only one-sided, thus the Senators will have no problem finding fuel for their fire. This is a rock-solid, extremely talented Ottawa team with a player that is playing like Bobby Orr and that is no fu**ing joke.
Finally and most importantly is that the line here is complete lunacy. We?re strongly suggesting that Ottawa has a better chance to win than Pittsburgh based on everything we?ve seen this playoff season from both teams. Pittsburgh can?t get out of its own end these days and almost everyone up front is burned out while the Senators are not. By far, the best player this playoff year has been Karlsson and when you have a player playing like he is, look out (see Wayne Gretzky, Guy Lafleur, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, Bryan Trottier and others). This line is based on results and perception and not performance and we?ve pointed out the flaws in that many times over the years. In terms of value, this is one of, if not the biggest overlay we have seen in a very long time. Again, we?re giving the Senators a better than 50% chance of winning and will play it accordingly. We?ll also play the Senators in each game individually as long as nothing changes. Massive overlay my friends that must be played.
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -4.5
The LA Sparks won it all last season, and the inside presence of both Candance Parker and Nneka Ogwumike will be tough to handle this year. The duo gives the Sparks the only pair of players with an MVP. The loss of Kristi Toliver will be a tough one, as rookie first round draft pick Sydney Wiese is going to have to be a presence from beyond the arc. Seattle was an old team that has started to get young again. Yes, Sue Bird is still around, a link to the past, but Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd offer a promising future for the Storm. I think the Storm is still growing, as their best players are still very young, and the best time to beat them this season will be in the early going.
A welterweight fight with title implications will take place between the surging Demian Maia and Jorge Masvidal while Frankie Edgar will look to turn back the challenge of upstart Yair Rodriguez.
UFC 211 has a ton of intrigue for MMA fans but there?s also value to be found for the gambling community.
For starters, the heavyweight title fight is an interesting one. The last time these two met in 2014, dos Santos won a hard-fought unanimous decision victory. Since then, their careers have gone in different directions. Miocic kicked off a streak of four straight wins while claiming the UFC heavyweight title along the way. As for dos Santos, he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem but bounced back with a victory against Ben Rothwell in April. But because their initial battle was so close, the line between the two has become quite the interesting one. Miocic originally opened up as a -161 favorite but now finds himself in a near toss up with the line shriveling up to a -125. Meanwhile, dos Santos currently sits as a +105 underdog at 5Dimes.
Although the heavyweight title has become an oversized hot potato, the fact remains that Miocic has been on a surge and should be a bigger favorite than he is. If their last battle was any indication, Miocic clearly put the MMA world on notice with his performance and has followed through with four consecutive knockout victories against quality opposition. Another indicator is how they fared against a common opponent in Alistair Overeem. Miocic put away Overeem inside of a round at UFC 203 last September while dos Santos was brutally knocked out in December of 2015 by the same opponent.
There?s simply no way you should avoid taking Miocic at those odds.
In the case of Jedrzejczyk vs. Andrade, the line has also sank for Jedrzejczyk at -150 after starting at -175 while Andrade is currently a +130 underdog. While Andrade has looked great since debuting at strawweight three fights ago, the champion is going to hold a significant height and reach advantage as well as being a more polished striker with excellent conditioning. As long as Jedrzejczyk can survive the initial onslaught, she should be able to control a fading Andrade with her wicked standup as the fight drags on. It could be a tough go for the champion but the value is on her side at -150.
Another line that comes off as surprising is Rodriguez vs. Edgar. Currently, Edgar is a narrow favorite at -125 while Rodriguez is at +105. The line is a bit of an eyebrow raiser considering that Rodriguez hasn?t faced anybody close to the caliber of Edgar in his career. He is unbeaten during his UFC tenure but when the most significant name on your resume is B.J. Penn, there have to be questions. Meanwhile, Edgar has proven to only be vulnerable against champions. All four of losses since 2012 have come against two opponents: Benson Henderson and Jose Aldo. And both were title fights. He?s proven to be nearly invincible otherwise with victories over Chad Mendes, Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens, among others. An argument can be made about Edgar?s age (35) but until it can be proven that he?s showing signs of slowing down, we?ll have to side with Edgar here.
All in all, there are some intriguing lines here but your best bet is going with favorites with very narrow lines in Miocic (-125), Jedrzejczyk (-150) and Edgar (-125).
