4:05 PM MLB [903] Arizona Diamondbacks -125 ( Z Godley - R / J Eickhoff - R )
4:10 PM MLB [908] Milwaukee Brewers -167 ( D Lamet - R / C Anderson - R )
4:05 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o10-105 (New York Yankees vrs Oakland Athletics) (Tanaka/Hahn)
8:15 PM MLB [925] TOTAL o9-115 (Boston Red Sox vrs Houston Astros) Porcello/Paulino)
4:05 PM MLB [929] Saint Louis Cardinals +109 ( A Wainwright - R / W Miley - L )
8:00 PM SOC [209866] Toronto FC -1-145
8:00 PM NBA [666] TOTAL u162.5 -110 (Connecticut Sun vrs Minnesota Lynx)
1 unit bet pays 69 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jesse Hahn (R), 10 percent, Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees: The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball, so Hahn is recommended only for those in deep formats. That said, the right-hander has pitched well since returning from the disabled list (2.45 ERA in two starts) and has done a nice job limiting hard contact this season (29 percent), which will obviously be important in a matchup against the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees will also suffer a huge park downgrade going from Yankee Stadium to the Oakland Coliseum, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Truth to be told, the Yanks have been far less lethal on the road (106 wRC+) this season than they've been at home (136 wRC+).
Pitcher to avoid
Rick Porcello (R), 85 percent, Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Porcello hasn't pitched as poorly as his 4.67 ERA suggests, but there are still red flags. He's allowing more fly balls than ever before (41 percent), and his 43 percent hard-contact rate is the second-worst mark in baseball. Not a good combination. Against an Astros team that's smashing right-handed pitching (121 wRC+), there's reason to be nervous.
ROYALS AT ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS -130
The Angels are still searching for a way to beat the Royals. KC scored an earlier series sweep at home, and now they?ve won two in a row at Anaheim.
There?s no such thing as perfect when it comes to sports betting, and that includes in the system realm. But here?s something to consider when sizing up tonight?s game.
Teams in revenge mode from an earlier sweep have done quite well this season. Fact is, not one of these teams has failed to get at least one win in the return matches. Actually, these teams have been virtually perfect in avoiding back to back losses in the rematch series.
The exception thus far has been these Halos, who have now dropped the first two of this series with the Royals. The ?system? side would therefore be the Angels in tonight?s game.
I don?t ever advocate blind angle plays, as each game should be broken down on its own merit, or perhaps lack thereof. But I made this number a shade higher than where it?s currently priced, so I will side with Angels to get off the mat with a bounce back win over the Royals tonight.
Royals vs. Angels
Play Under 9
Don't be surprised if shadows are an issue for the hitters with this unusual start time. The game goes at 5:15 local time and the sunset is around 8:00 local time. The first time through the lineup these hitters will be facing these pitchers for the first time ever. By the 2nd time through the lineup it is likely that shadowing could start to be an issue for the hitters. That makes it a very tough situation for the hitters. Even though the Royals have hit better of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see another game like the 3-1 KC win yesterday. Kansas City is averaging just 4 runs per game on the season. The Angels Alex Meyer has piled up a lot of strikeouts this season and he has been much stronger at home than on the road. As for the Royals Jake Junis, he is coming off of his best start yet and he walked only 1 while striking out 6 in 7 solid innings of work. He's facing an Angels team that has been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of its last 6 home games. The unimpressive overall numbers of these two starting pitchers is helping to keep this total higher than it should be. It is a pitcher-friendly start time in Anaheim and this one has the makings of another easy under like last night's game.
Royals vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
?Gas cans? collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a classic ?slugfest:?
Jake Junis: He?s 2-0 with a 4.67 ERA. Junis most recently gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Padres on Sunday, lucky as all three runs were dingers of the solo variety. It was the first time as well that he?s completed more than five innings, failing to do so in his first two major league tries. In his previous outing he was rocked for seven runs off nine hits over three innings in a loss to the Astros.
Alex Meyer: He?s 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA. Meyer is also coming off a ?ho-hum? outing, allowing two runs off five hits and five walks over four innings in a no-decision against New York on Monday. Meyer has now issued at least four walks in five of his last eight trips to the hill and 29 total free passes in 40 innings of work.
The bottom line: Both starters are struggling with control right now. Recent form between these pitchers suggests that these line-ups are poised for a productive evening.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Play: Diamondbacks -115
Arizona isn't the same caliber a team on the road as they are at home, but the Phillies are a club they can handle, as Philadelphia is a mere 13-15 on their home field this season. Arizona has all the momentum going into this one after a late rally secured a 5-4 win in the series opener last night. That combined with the pitching matchup and excellent value on the line makes the Diamondbacks too good to pass up. Arizona gives the rock to talented youngster Zack Godley, who has a sensational 2.44 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 7 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down or struggling to deal with the away crowds, as he's got a 2.41 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.84 ERA in 3 road outings. Philadelphia is giving the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 0-7 with a 5.22 ERA in 13 starts and has a 5.76 ERA in 6 starts at home and 6.58 ERA in his last 3 outings.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +130
The Milwaukee Brewers just won in walk off fashion last night and come in with a ton of confidence as they are leading the NL Central. The Padres are just 10-23 on the road this year, and I don't think they can hang with the Brewers today due to the pitching mismatch. Chase Anderson is 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 13 starts this year, 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 6 home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 outings. He'll be opposed by Dinelson Lamet, who is 2-2 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 4 starts for the Padres. The Padres are 16-40 in their last 56 road games. The Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Play: Diamondbacks -118
Arizona/Philadelphia 4:05: Arizona on a nice 8-1 tear while Philadelphia continues to sink on a 1-9 slide. We'll look for Arizona to continue to control this series with Zach Godley getting the nod. Godley sporting a respectable 2.44 ERA and has the backing of a decent bullpen (3.51 ERA). On the other hand, Philadelphia's Eickhoff is now 0-13 in team starts and getting little support from the Phillies' lineup. Eickhoff sports a bloated 5.09 ERA and the Phillies' bullpen (4.58 ERA) can't be trusted. With the road team controlling this series to the tune of 9-0, we'll roll with the hot team here.
Cubs at Pirates
Play: Over 8
The Cubbies starting hurler today has decent overall stats vs the Pirates in his career, but has struggled mightily in recent meetings. He posted a 1.46 ERA in his first 12 starts but has pitched to an 8.61 ERA in the last four and has been below average onf the road this season, as is evident by recording a 5.20 ERA including 9 HRs in 8 tilts. I'm betting a Pirates team has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their L/7 overall will do some damage here tonight against him again . Meanwhile, Ivan Nova the Pirates starter , despite of some decent stats this season, goes against a Chicago offense that has averaged 5.8 rpg in division games this season, and an average of 5.6 rpg in production during a current 7 game stretch. These teams took part in a 9-5/14 run output yesterday and more of the same action can be expected tonight. Over is 5-0 in Arrietas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Arrietas last 12 starts overall.Over is 7-1-1 in Arrietas last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Arrietas last 4 starts vs. Pirates.Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings in Pittsburgh.Over is 4-1 in Novas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 5-1 in home plate umpire Fagans last 6 games behind home plate. PITTSBURGH is 23-8 OVER L/31 as a home underdog of +100 or higher with a combined average of 10.5 rpg going on the board. ARRIETA is 8-0 OVER L/8 in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the board.
Cardinals vs. Orioles
Play: Cardinals -105
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals dropped the final three contests of their seven-game homestand by getting swept Tuesday through Thursday by the Brewers. However, they rebounded nicely with Friday's 11-2 win at Baltimore, leaving them 31-35 on the season, 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central. This three-game IL series continues Saturday, as the Cards try to build some momentum on a six-game road trip that takes them to major league-worst Philadelphia following this series at Baltimore. The struggling Orioles have now lost eight of nine and at 32-24, are 6 1/2 games out fo first in the AL East.
The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (7-4 & 4.73 ERA) will take the mound for the Cards and Wade Miley (2-4 & 3.97 ERA) for the Orioles. Wainwright had his string of four straight victories in which he allowed a total of one run come to an end at Cincinnati on June 6, when he was lit up for nine runs on seven hits and three walks in just 3 2/3 innings. He lasted only five innings in his last start but managed to post a win against Philadelphia on Sunday, surrendering two runs on six hits in the 6-5 St. Louis victory. Wainwright, who will be facing Baltimore for the first time in his career. Miley followed his best start of the season (one run allowed in seven innings against Boston on June 1) with two of his worst. He got beat up for 10 runs on 14 hits in just five total innings in outings against the Pirates and White Sox. Miley 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis (teams are 2-2).
The pick: Miley's recent pitching woes are emblematic of Baltimore's pitching staff as a whole, as the Orioles are allowing an average of 9.1 runs over the their 1-8 stretch. However, Baltimore's overall woes extend further back than just nine games, as since reaching 22-10 on May 9, the Orioles have gone just 10-24. Wainwright lost his first three starts of 2017 but the Cards are 8-2 over his last 10 outings.
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets face off on Saturday afternoon and the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Nationals is Stephen Strasburg who has been really good this year. In his last start he had some trouble against the Braves, but this is a great game for him to bounce back. Before that start he had given up a total of three runs in his previous three starts. He looks like the Stephen Strasburg of old that is absolutely fooling hitters out on the mound.
On the mound for the Mets is Seth Lugo. He has made one start giving up one run in seven innings pitched. Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East. Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +147
I understand it's tough to get behind the Reds right now. They've lost seven in a row and have rookie Asher Wojciechowski pitching. The Dodgers are playing well with seven wins in their last eight games.
But Cincinnati is an attractive home 'dog to me at this price.
How's that?
Let's begin with who the Dodgers are pitching. It's Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's on the comeback trail from elbow and shoulder injuries that limited him to one start last year. I don't think Ryu is long for staying in LA's starting pitching rotation with a 2-6 record and 4.42 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-7 during Ryu's past seven road starts.
Ryu got to face the Reds just this past Sunday at Dodger Stadium, a much more pitcher-friendly stadium than Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park. The Reds got to Ryu for four runs on six hits - including three homers - in four innings before Ryu was pulled.
The Reds lead the NL in steals and rank seventh in the majors in homers. They have five players with nine or more homers.
The Dodgers are just mediocre on the road at 17-16.
The key is can Wojciechowski turn in a quality start? I believe he can. He's proven himself so far at home with a 1.86 ERA at Great American Ball Park. Wojciechowski last pitched at home against St. Louis on June 5, two starts ago. He held the Cardinals to two runs on eight hits with six strikeouts in six innings. The Reds' bullpen is upgraded with Tony Cingrani back healthy.
Dodgers ace closer Kenley Jansen carries a fatigue rating having pitched in three of the last four days.
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play
ittsburgh +120
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs face off on Saturday night, and with the pitching match up on the mound and this price, the Pirates have some value.
On the mound for the Cubs is Jake Arrieta who hasn't been as dominant as years past. He comes into this game with a 6-4 record but a high ERA of 4.68.
In his last start he only went 4.1 innings and gave up four earned runs. I would expect much of the same to happen in this game.
On the mound for the Pirates is Ivan Nova who has been pitching really well this year. He comes into this game with a 2.83 ERA.
In his last start he went six innings only giving up one hit and zero earned run. I think he will find a way to slow down the bats of the Cubs.
Some trends to note. Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. Pirates are 4-0 in Novas last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Over 9?
The Red Sox beat the Astros in a 2-1 pitcher's duel at Minute Maid Park in Game 1, but I expect Game 2 to be more of a slugfest.
Rick Porcello will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's not missing many bats this season. Porcello (3-8, 4.67 ERA) allowed five runs on 10 hits in six innings in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's conceded a whopping 66 hits over his last seven starts, and opponents are batting .310 against him in 2017.
The Astros hand the ball to David Paulino, who hasn't been sharp in three appearances. The 23 year old was torched for five runs on six hit and two walks over four innings in a 12-6 home loss to the Angels his last time out. He's failed to reach the fifth inning in two of his three starts, and he's been taken deep at least once in all three of those games.
Prior to last night's game, these two teams had gone over in six straight meetings. They've gone over in eight of the last 11 at Minutemaid Park, and the over is 9-4 in Porcello's last 13 road starts versus a team with a winning record.
Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Under 162.5 (-113)
Both games played this year between these teams have hit on the under and have also been under 163 both times. Lynx are going to look to slow down the game and with the defense they play they should be able to keep the game low scoring and still blow out Connecticut.
Toronto FC -1 (1.78 / -128)
The international break came at a great time for Toronto, as they come into this match off a 0-3 loss at New England two weeks ago. Both Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley return to this match from their national duty as part of team USA. After a slow start to the MLS season with only one win in their first six matches, Toronto has come alive and climbed all the way to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Since that slow start, they were unbeaten in eight straight matches, going 7-1-0 with a 19:7 goal differential before losing their last match 0-3 at New England. At home, Toronto is unbeaten on the season with a 5-2-0 record and a tidy 17:6 goal differential.
DC United has had a forgettable MLS season so far this year. They do come into this match off a 4-1 win over Christos in the US Open, but face a very tough test as they head to Canada to face Toronto, one of the best rosters in all of the MLS. Over their last six MLS matches, they have failed to score in five of those games, while earning a 1-0 at Vancouver in the other game. On the road this year, they do have two wins, with a 2-1-3 record, but were held scoreless in half of those games with a goal differential of 6:11.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
4:10 PM MLB [908] Milwaukee Brewers -167 ( D Lamet - R / C Anderson - R )
4:05 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o10-105 (New York Yankees vrs Oakland Athletics) (Tanaka/Hahn)
8:15 PM MLB [925] TOTAL o9-115 (Boston Red Sox vrs Houston Astros) Porcello/Paulino)
4:05 PM MLB [929] Saint Louis Cardinals +109 ( A Wainwright - R / W Miley - L )
8:00 PM SOC [209866] Toronto FC -1-145
8:00 PM NBA [666] TOTAL u162.5 -110 (Connecticut Sun vrs Minnesota Lynx)
1 unit bet pays 69 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jesse Hahn (R), 10 percent, Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees: The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball, so Hahn is recommended only for those in deep formats. That said, the right-hander has pitched well since returning from the disabled list (2.45 ERA in two starts) and has done a nice job limiting hard contact this season (29 percent), which will obviously be important in a matchup against the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees will also suffer a huge park downgrade going from Yankee Stadium to the Oakland Coliseum, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Truth to be told, the Yanks have been far less lethal on the road (106 wRC+) this season than they've been at home (136 wRC+).
Pitcher to avoid
Rick Porcello (R), 85 percent, Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Porcello hasn't pitched as poorly as his 4.67 ERA suggests, but there are still red flags. He's allowing more fly balls than ever before (41 percent), and his 43 percent hard-contact rate is the second-worst mark in baseball. Not a good combination. Against an Astros team that's smashing right-handed pitching (121 wRC+), there's reason to be nervous.
ROYALS AT ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS -130
The Angels are still searching for a way to beat the Royals. KC scored an earlier series sweep at home, and now they?ve won two in a row at Anaheim.
There?s no such thing as perfect when it comes to sports betting, and that includes in the system realm. But here?s something to consider when sizing up tonight?s game.
Teams in revenge mode from an earlier sweep have done quite well this season. Fact is, not one of these teams has failed to get at least one win in the return matches. Actually, these teams have been virtually perfect in avoiding back to back losses in the rematch series.
The exception thus far has been these Halos, who have now dropped the first two of this series with the Royals. The ?system? side would therefore be the Angels in tonight?s game.
I don?t ever advocate blind angle plays, as each game should be broken down on its own merit, or perhaps lack thereof. But I made this number a shade higher than where it?s currently priced, so I will side with Angels to get off the mat with a bounce back win over the Royals tonight.
Royals vs. Angels
Play Under 9
Don't be surprised if shadows are an issue for the hitters with this unusual start time. The game goes at 5:15 local time and the sunset is around 8:00 local time. The first time through the lineup these hitters will be facing these pitchers for the first time ever. By the 2nd time through the lineup it is likely that shadowing could start to be an issue for the hitters. That makes it a very tough situation for the hitters. Even though the Royals have hit better of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see another game like the 3-1 KC win yesterday. Kansas City is averaging just 4 runs per game on the season. The Angels Alex Meyer has piled up a lot of strikeouts this season and he has been much stronger at home than on the road. As for the Royals Jake Junis, he is coming off of his best start yet and he walked only 1 while striking out 6 in 7 solid innings of work. He's facing an Angels team that has been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of its last 6 home games. The unimpressive overall numbers of these two starting pitchers is helping to keep this total higher than it should be. It is a pitcher-friendly start time in Anaheim and this one has the makings of another easy under like last night's game.
Royals vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
?Gas cans? collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a classic ?slugfest:?
Jake Junis: He?s 2-0 with a 4.67 ERA. Junis most recently gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Padres on Sunday, lucky as all three runs were dingers of the solo variety. It was the first time as well that he?s completed more than five innings, failing to do so in his first two major league tries. In his previous outing he was rocked for seven runs off nine hits over three innings in a loss to the Astros.
Alex Meyer: He?s 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA. Meyer is also coming off a ?ho-hum? outing, allowing two runs off five hits and five walks over four innings in a no-decision against New York on Monday. Meyer has now issued at least four walks in five of his last eight trips to the hill and 29 total free passes in 40 innings of work.
The bottom line: Both starters are struggling with control right now. Recent form between these pitchers suggests that these line-ups are poised for a productive evening.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Play: Diamondbacks -115
Arizona isn't the same caliber a team on the road as they are at home, but the Phillies are a club they can handle, as Philadelphia is a mere 13-15 on their home field this season. Arizona has all the momentum going into this one after a late rally secured a 5-4 win in the series opener last night. That combined with the pitching matchup and excellent value on the line makes the Diamondbacks too good to pass up. Arizona gives the rock to talented youngster Zack Godley, who has a sensational 2.44 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 7 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down or struggling to deal with the away crowds, as he's got a 2.41 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.84 ERA in 3 road outings. Philadelphia is giving the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 0-7 with a 5.22 ERA in 13 starts and has a 5.76 ERA in 6 starts at home and 6.58 ERA in his last 3 outings.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +130
The Milwaukee Brewers just won in walk off fashion last night and come in with a ton of confidence as they are leading the NL Central. The Padres are just 10-23 on the road this year, and I don't think they can hang with the Brewers today due to the pitching mismatch. Chase Anderson is 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 13 starts this year, 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 6 home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 outings. He'll be opposed by Dinelson Lamet, who is 2-2 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 4 starts for the Padres. The Padres are 16-40 in their last 56 road games. The Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Play: Diamondbacks -118
Arizona/Philadelphia 4:05: Arizona on a nice 8-1 tear while Philadelphia continues to sink on a 1-9 slide. We'll look for Arizona to continue to control this series with Zach Godley getting the nod. Godley sporting a respectable 2.44 ERA and has the backing of a decent bullpen (3.51 ERA). On the other hand, Philadelphia's Eickhoff is now 0-13 in team starts and getting little support from the Phillies' lineup. Eickhoff sports a bloated 5.09 ERA and the Phillies' bullpen (4.58 ERA) can't be trusted. With the road team controlling this series to the tune of 9-0, we'll roll with the hot team here.
Cubs at Pirates
Play: Over 8
The Cubbies starting hurler today has decent overall stats vs the Pirates in his career, but has struggled mightily in recent meetings. He posted a 1.46 ERA in his first 12 starts but has pitched to an 8.61 ERA in the last four and has been below average onf the road this season, as is evident by recording a 5.20 ERA including 9 HRs in 8 tilts. I'm betting a Pirates team has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their L/7 overall will do some damage here tonight against him again . Meanwhile, Ivan Nova the Pirates starter , despite of some decent stats this season, goes against a Chicago offense that has averaged 5.8 rpg in division games this season, and an average of 5.6 rpg in production during a current 7 game stretch. These teams took part in a 9-5/14 run output yesterday and more of the same action can be expected tonight. Over is 5-0 in Arrietas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Arrietas last 12 starts overall.Over is 7-1-1 in Arrietas last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Arrietas last 4 starts vs. Pirates.Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings in Pittsburgh.Over is 4-1 in Novas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 5-1 in home plate umpire Fagans last 6 games behind home plate. PITTSBURGH is 23-8 OVER L/31 as a home underdog of +100 or higher with a combined average of 10.5 rpg going on the board. ARRIETA is 8-0 OVER L/8 in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the board.
Cardinals vs. Orioles
Play: Cardinals -105
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals dropped the final three contests of their seven-game homestand by getting swept Tuesday through Thursday by the Brewers. However, they rebounded nicely with Friday's 11-2 win at Baltimore, leaving them 31-35 on the season, 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central. This three-game IL series continues Saturday, as the Cards try to build some momentum on a six-game road trip that takes them to major league-worst Philadelphia following this series at Baltimore. The struggling Orioles have now lost eight of nine and at 32-24, are 6 1/2 games out fo first in the AL East.
The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (7-4 & 4.73 ERA) will take the mound for the Cards and Wade Miley (2-4 & 3.97 ERA) for the Orioles. Wainwright had his string of four straight victories in which he allowed a total of one run come to an end at Cincinnati on June 6, when he was lit up for nine runs on seven hits and three walks in just 3 2/3 innings. He lasted only five innings in his last start but managed to post a win against Philadelphia on Sunday, surrendering two runs on six hits in the 6-5 St. Louis victory. Wainwright, who will be facing Baltimore for the first time in his career. Miley followed his best start of the season (one run allowed in seven innings against Boston on June 1) with two of his worst. He got beat up for 10 runs on 14 hits in just five total innings in outings against the Pirates and White Sox. Miley 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis (teams are 2-2).
The pick: Miley's recent pitching woes are emblematic of Baltimore's pitching staff as a whole, as the Orioles are allowing an average of 9.1 runs over the their 1-8 stretch. However, Baltimore's overall woes extend further back than just nine games, as since reaching 22-10 on May 9, the Orioles have gone just 10-24. Wainwright lost his first three starts of 2017 but the Cards are 8-2 over his last 10 outings.
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets face off on Saturday afternoon and the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Nationals is Stephen Strasburg who has been really good this year. In his last start he had some trouble against the Braves, but this is a great game for him to bounce back. Before that start he had given up a total of three runs in his previous three starts. He looks like the Stephen Strasburg of old that is absolutely fooling hitters out on the mound.
On the mound for the Mets is Seth Lugo. He has made one start giving up one run in seven innings pitched. Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East. Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +147
I understand it's tough to get behind the Reds right now. They've lost seven in a row and have rookie Asher Wojciechowski pitching. The Dodgers are playing well with seven wins in their last eight games.
But Cincinnati is an attractive home 'dog to me at this price.
How's that?
Let's begin with who the Dodgers are pitching. It's Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's on the comeback trail from elbow and shoulder injuries that limited him to one start last year. I don't think Ryu is long for staying in LA's starting pitching rotation with a 2-6 record and 4.42 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-7 during Ryu's past seven road starts.
Ryu got to face the Reds just this past Sunday at Dodger Stadium, a much more pitcher-friendly stadium than Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park. The Reds got to Ryu for four runs on six hits - including three homers - in four innings before Ryu was pulled.
The Reds lead the NL in steals and rank seventh in the majors in homers. They have five players with nine or more homers.
The Dodgers are just mediocre on the road at 17-16.
The key is can Wojciechowski turn in a quality start? I believe he can. He's proven himself so far at home with a 1.86 ERA at Great American Ball Park. Wojciechowski last pitched at home against St. Louis on June 5, two starts ago. He held the Cardinals to two runs on eight hits with six strikeouts in six innings. The Reds' bullpen is upgraded with Tony Cingrani back healthy.
Dodgers ace closer Kenley Jansen carries a fatigue rating having pitched in three of the last four days.
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play
ittsburgh +120This play just missed out on our premium card. The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs face off on Saturday night, and with the pitching match up on the mound and this price, the Pirates have some value.
On the mound for the Cubs is Jake Arrieta who hasn't been as dominant as years past. He comes into this game with a 6-4 record but a high ERA of 4.68.
In his last start he only went 4.1 innings and gave up four earned runs. I would expect much of the same to happen in this game.
On the mound for the Pirates is Ivan Nova who has been pitching really well this year. He comes into this game with a 2.83 ERA.
In his last start he went six innings only giving up one hit and zero earned run. I think he will find a way to slow down the bats of the Cubs.
Some trends to note. Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. Pirates are 4-0 in Novas last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Over 9?
The Red Sox beat the Astros in a 2-1 pitcher's duel at Minute Maid Park in Game 1, but I expect Game 2 to be more of a slugfest.
Rick Porcello will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's not missing many bats this season. Porcello (3-8, 4.67 ERA) allowed five runs on 10 hits in six innings in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's conceded a whopping 66 hits over his last seven starts, and opponents are batting .310 against him in 2017.
The Astros hand the ball to David Paulino, who hasn't been sharp in three appearances. The 23 year old was torched for five runs on six hit and two walks over four innings in a 12-6 home loss to the Angels his last time out. He's failed to reach the fifth inning in two of his three starts, and he's been taken deep at least once in all three of those games.
Prior to last night's game, these two teams had gone over in six straight meetings. They've gone over in eight of the last 11 at Minutemaid Park, and the over is 9-4 in Porcello's last 13 road starts versus a team with a winning record.
Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Under 162.5 (-113)
Both games played this year between these teams have hit on the under and have also been under 163 both times. Lynx are going to look to slow down the game and with the defense they play they should be able to keep the game low scoring and still blow out Connecticut.
Toronto FC -1 (1.78 / -128)
The international break came at a great time for Toronto, as they come into this match off a 0-3 loss at New England two weeks ago. Both Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley return to this match from their national duty as part of team USA. After a slow start to the MLS season with only one win in their first six matches, Toronto has come alive and climbed all the way to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Since that slow start, they were unbeaten in eight straight matches, going 7-1-0 with a 19:7 goal differential before losing their last match 0-3 at New England. At home, Toronto is unbeaten on the season with a 5-2-0 record and a tidy 17:6 goal differential.
DC United has had a forgettable MLS season so far this year. They do come into this match off a 4-1 win over Christos in the US Open, but face a very tough test as they head to Canada to face Toronto, one of the best rosters in all of the MLS. Over their last six MLS matches, they have failed to score in five of those games, while earning a 1-0 at Vancouver in the other game. On the road this year, they do have two wins, with a 2-1-3 record, but were held scoreless in half of those games with a goal differential of 6:11.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
