3:30 PM CFB [162] Michigan -10-115
3:30 PM CFB [165] TOTAL o73-115 (North Carolina vrs Florida State)
4:05 PM MLB [952] Washington Nationals -174 ( W Chen - L / T Roark)
4:05 PM MLB [953] Los Angeles Dodgers -210 ( C Kershaw - L / T Blach)
4:10 PM MLB [955] Chicago Cubs -220 ( J Lester - L / T Adleman - R )
1:05 PM MLB [958] Saint Louis Cardinals -163 ( C Kuhl - R / M Wacha)
1:05 PM MLB [959] New York Mets -185 ( B Colon - R / P Klein - R )
1 unit bet pays 28 ....betdsi line .... evening parlay posting later..
MLB parlays: 17-167, -31.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Mets clinch today with this win. They have been in must-win mode of late, and have been getting the job done.
Colon is coming off a rough outing, the emotional game in Miami. But he is an excellent 'bounce back' pitcher - he's given up 5+ER or more in 4 starts this season, and in the next start after these 4 his ER were 3,0,1,1 respectively.
Mets are facing a gift for thier must-win games: The Phillies. Phila has bad pitching and even worse batting, and are not ending the season well. Today they are trotting out Phil Klein to start, he has a 12.15 ERA on the year for Phil (three games, one start). At the start of the year he was with Texas, where he pitched out of the pen in 8 games for a 5.19 ERA. Career he has 3 starts with a 8.03 ERA.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Clayton Kershaw will close out his 2016 season with a road outing against the Giants, who are still vying for a Wild Card spot. The Dodgers ace has been better than ever this season, as his 16.8 strikeout-to-walk-ratio would be the best in baseball history -- by a mile -- if he had enough innings to qualify. He also hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his last three starts. A matchup against the Giants, who strike out less than any team in the NL, might not be ideal, but it's worth noting that he fanned 13 Giants when he last pitched in AT&T Park back in June. In other words, the normal rules do not apply for the three-time Cy Young winner.
Jon Lester is a worthy pivot. In fact, a case can be made that taking Lester along with the savings is the better play in cash games. The Cubs lefty has been on a different level of late. Over his last eight starts, Lester has allowed only four runs. Total. Of course, he doesn't have Kershaw's strikeout upside, but he finds himself in a much, much more appealing spot, facing a Reds squad that's one of the worst in baseball against southpaws (82 wRC+) and whiffs at a healthy 23 percent clip.
Twins +105
I like the value we are catching with the Twins as a small road dog in Saturday's meaningless game between the Twins and White Sox. Minnesota's Hector Santiago is coming off a couple of average starts, but has been throwing much better down the stretch. He been locked in on the road this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 15 starts. What I really like is how well Santiago has thrown against Chicago. He's faced the White Sox 3 times this season and all 3 times he posted a quality start, twice throwing 7 shutout innings. He also allowed just 11 hits with 23 strikeouts in his 20 innings against them. Chicago will counter with James Shields who has been all over the place this season, with most of it being bad. He's 6-18 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last 11 starts, he's giving up 4 runs or more 7 times and 6 of those he allowed 5 or more.
Tanner Roark draws a favorable home start against a Marlins team that's struggled against right-handed pitching this season (91 wRC+). They do strike out just 19 percent of the time versus righties, which is the fifth-lowest mark in baseball, but whiffs aren't a big part of Roark's game anyway. Although he got roughed up by Arizona his last time out, the right-hander has been a picture of consistency this season. He's held sub-3.00 ERAs in each of the last three months, and he hasn't posted a monthly ERA north of 3.56.
North Carolina vs. Florida State
Pick: North Carolina
Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, an assistant at LSU from 2000 through 2006, took time out from his weekly session with the media to dispel any talk about the job opening that came up this week when LSU fired Les Miles. "I'm not talking about LSU. We're talking about North Carolina," said Fisher, adding that he also has not had contact with anyone from LSU nor would he listen if they called him or his agent. North Carolina and its high-powered passing offense (334.0 YPG ranks 14th) comes to Tallahassee, where the now 12th-ranked Seminoles have won 22 straight home contests (a current FBS-best).
Fisher and his Seminoles have enough on their hands without any distractions about Fisher?s coaching future, as FSU badly need this one because the Seminoles are already 0-1 in the ACC and another loss in conference play would all but knock them out of the running for any sort of title in 2016, including the national playoffs. The Tar Heels are unranked but have won three in a row since dropping their opener 33-24 to Georgia. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has led North Carolina to an average of 47.0 PPG in its three consecutive wins. He?s completing 74.5% of his passes for 1306 yards on the season, throwing 10 TD passes without an INT (in 137 attempts).
FSU?s freshman QB Deondre Francois looked inept in the team?s embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville (completing just 7 of 18 for 101 yards with a TD and an INT) but on the season is completing 62.8% for 951 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. RB Dalvin Cook was among a group of preseason Heisman favorites but after three games, he had just 228 rushing yards and two TDs. However, things changed last Saturday in Tampa against USF, as the Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (had 478 yards), led by Cook?s 267 yards (9.5 YPC) and two TDs.
History will note that Florida State is 15-2-1 against North Carolina overall but did lose the last meeting in Tallahassee back in 2010. North Carolina is off a thrilling, last-second victory when Mitch Trubisky?s school-record fifth TD pass with two seconds remaining gave the Tar Heels a 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh. Note that the victory also extended North Carolina?s ACC regular-season winning streak to nine. Will the Tar Heels extend it to 10 in a throw, here? Maybe not but I?m taking the points.
Wake Forest at NC State
Play: Under 48.5
On a perfect 3-0 run with the ACC free play involving the Pittsburgh Panthers, I?ll shift away and tap into an Atlantic Division contest. Situational edge here goes to the Wolfpack which enter the game off of a bye week. Last season NC State had the same bye week situation and won 35-17 in Winston Salem. That could be where the similarities end because at this juncture of the season, the fundamentals in this matchup look a bit different.
In their late October meeting last season, NC State running back Matt Dayes ran wild scoring two touchdowns of 50+ yards and gaining 205 overall. Dayes and the NC State ground game have had a strong start to this season (210.7 ypg) but the Wake Forest run defense has been a rock allowing just 88.5 rypg and 2.7 per carry. What has been vulnerable is the Demon Deacons pass defense which has yielded an average of 414 ypg in contests versus Duke and Indiana. Wake Forest?s other two games were against triple-option Tulane and FCS heavily run oriented Delaware. NC State?s first-year starting quarterback (Boise State transfer) Ryan Finley has completed an amazing 76.3% of his passes thus far with six touchdowns and no interceptions. If Wake Forest is able to focus on and contain Dayes and the ground game, Finley can hurt their weak secondary through the air.
Wake is off of a 33-28 road underdog victory last week against Indiana but the statistical line shows some very concerning numbers. Every team would love to be +5 in turnover margin like the Deacons were last Saturday but to have that monster advantage and only win by five points indicates some flaws. The most glaring was the 611 total yards Indiana gained as they shredded the Wake Forest defense for 7.7 yards per play and 17.7 per pass completion.
The contest last week in Bloomington is somewhat of an aberration because of the all the big plays. Wake Forest had the five takeaways, a blocked FG, ran an interception back for a TD and scored 33 points despite 11 of their 15 possessions gaining only 22 yards or less. Their run defense was again stout vs. a very capable IU ground attack led by Devine Redding who had his string of five straight 100+ yard games ended.
NC State?s offense will be facing a major step up in class here after facing three poor defensive units in a row and they may be hard pressed to run against Wake Forest the way they did last year primarily because the Deacons no longer have to defend the read option. Having to account for Jacoby Brisset?s running ability last year did open things up for other NC State runners but Finley isn't much of a running threat. I like the way the Wolfpack defense is playing right now and look for them to keep Wake's point production to much less than last week. Money has already taken a bite out of this total but still feel good about a recommendation on the under.
Wake Forest +11
One of the more surprising early season teams has been Wake Forest, who enters Saturday?s game at NC State at 4-0 on the season and fresh off a road win at Indiana last week. The Wolfpack of NC State enter Saturday?s game with a 2-1 mark on the young season and are actually off a bye this week. This Demon Deacons team, while not yet ready to compete for a conference title, appear to be much improved this season, especially offensively which has been their problem over the last few seasons. Wake also went on the road three weeks ago and won 24-14 at Duke, so they have played some solid competition early in the year. NC State lost a squeaker at East Carolina in week two but have really not played the same level of competition as Wake. The Deacons defense is surrendering just 16.5 PPG and is especially stout vs. the run, giving up only 88 rushing YPG. The Wake Forest defense continues to do a great job pressuring the QB and forcing their opponents into mistakes, as evidenced by the defense coming up with six interceptions and 12 team sacks. We believe the reason for the double-digit line is the history in this series, which has been dominated by NC State. In what appears to be an attractive trend here this week, Wake Forest is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. teams with a winning record, while NC State is 0-4 in the same spot against quality foes at home. Another great trend here backing Wake here is that the road dog has been a really solid play in this series, covering 67% of the time.
GEORGIA +4 over Tennessee
Anyone that wagered on the Bulldogs last week never really stood a chance, as Georgia fell behind by a big margin early on and lacked any life whatsoever the rest of the way. The best time to come back on a team is off a horrible outing because the number is largely based off that one performance. Playing at Ole Miss last week, the Dawgs were being offered seven points and now they are being offered just three less at home against the Vols. Do you see how that works? It is not right because Mississippi is a true juggernaut while Tennessee is still the same soft team that they have been for years. That Tennessee is ranked 11th in the nation is nothing but fool?s gold which we will look to exploit. What we know for sure is that the Dawgs will respond here with a much better effort, as this host has too much talent and pride not to.
The Vols have played three SEC teams so far this year and in that time, they have three good quarters out of 12. Florida's halftime smugness last week led to its subsequent collapse and it also masks the fact that Tennessee is still playing mistake-prone and situationally unaware football. The pollsters are always the easiest to fool but the cat is somewhat out of the bag with the oddsmakers, who had the Vols installed as a mere field-goal favorite at a struggling Georgia team that also has seen its Vegas stock crash this year. The betting population has bet it up to its current price of -4. The reduction in value and soft schedule means that we?ll need to be more prudent in picking spots, but don't expect Tennessee to beat anybody that's truly any good the rest of the way and the Dawgs are among that group. Georgia is a very tempting ML play here but we?ll use caution and take the points.
Purdue +11 over MARYLAND
While the Boilermakers are not a team we like to get behind because they?re sloppy and their coach makes Jeff Fisher look like Bill Gates, the Terps must be faded in Big-10 play when they are favored in this range. The last time we saw the Boilermakers was last week when they escaped with a 10-point win over Nevada but the Wolf Pack had a chance to tie it with a FG late in the fourth before Purdue sealed it. The score itself looks ugly but the numbers tell a different story. Purdue had a 265 to 122 total yards advantage at one point but three turnovers prevented the game from turning into a route. Way too much emphasis is being placed on the final score (a 10-point win but a near loss) but Purdue eventually outgained Nevada by 213 yards. The Boilermakers can score points with QB David Blough?s talents. Blough hits his receivers in the numbers and the Terps will also have to prepare for Blough?s ability to hit his receivers deep. Two games ago against Cincinnati, the Boilermakers were only a three-point dog and now they?re getting 11 points because why?
The Terps are 3-0 but don?t be fooled by that ridiculous record, as they have played Howard, FIU and UCF. Combined, that trio is 2-10 but both FIU and Howard are 0-4. UCF?s two victories were against South Carolina State and FIU. Let us remind you that even with the projected three wins to open the year, oddsmakers had the Terps over/under win total for the year at 5?. If we could bet it today, we would still go under because wins are going to be scarce and that might even include today. The Terps are a weak team that does not have the talent nor are they physical enough in the trenches to survive life in the Big Ten East. Not only are the Terps unlikely to cover this game, they may lose it outright so don?t be afraid to play Purdue in a couple of ML parlays. Purdue is the better team, they are more battle tested and they?re taking back sick points. We?re going to step it up here and play Purdue on the money line for 1 unit @ +355 and take the points for another 2 units for a total risk of 3.18 units.
Northwestern/Iowa Under 44
Offense should be hard to come by for both of these teams on Saturday. Iowa's offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, only scoring 21 at home against FCS foe North Dakota State and then just 14 last week against a Rutgers team that allowed 48 to Washington and 38 to New Mexico.
If you have watched Iowa, you know they are team that likes to grind out possessions by running it down their opponents throats and throwing only when they need to. They figure to have to rely on the run a little more with senior wide out Matt VandeBerg sidelined with a foot injury. VandeBerg leads Iowa with 19 receptions and 284 yards. The next best on the team is tight end George Kittle with 10 catches for 192 yards. No one else on the team is in double-digits in receptions or has more than 100 yards receiving.
I Northwestern allowed 310 rushing yards last week to Nebraska, but a good chunk of those (132) came from quarterback Tommy Armstrong. While Iowa quarterback, C.J. Beathard is mobile, he's only got 3 rushing yards on the season. Even with all that success on the ground, the Cornhuskers still only managed 24 points. I think the Wildcats are more than capable of keeping this Iowa offense in check and making them eat up a lot of clock when they do put together a scoring drive.
On the flip side of this, Iowa's defense is the real deal. The Hawkeyes come in only giving up 13.5 ppg and just 365 ypg. They should have zero problem here against an anemic Northwestern offense that is scoring just 16.2 ppg. Wildcats have really struggled to run the ball and that's going to put them in a lot of 3rd and long situations which will make it tough on them to sustain drives. Keep in mind the last two years they have scored a combined 17 points in their two games against Iowa, both times finishing the game with fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
UNDER is 20-7 in Northwestern's last 27 following a double-digit loss at home, 10-4 in their last 14 after giving up 200 or more yards rushing and 22-9 in their last 31 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 34-18 in Iowa's last 52 games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games.
VANDERBILT +12 over Florida
Every time the Gators play the Commodores, they are spotting inflated points and this time around is no different. In some pre-season analyses, pundits had the Gators at full health and realized the potential of losing this game to Vandy on the road. Now, we are asking this same Gators team to spot double-digit points after coming in off a game of what could have been, when the Gators fell 38-28 in Knoxville last Saturday. Additionally, the Gators offense remains a question mark in light of reserve quarterback Austin Appleby?s reliable performance against the Volunteers. Finally and perhaps the most significant variable to throw into the mix is Florida?s mindset after blowing an 18-point lead in the second half to allow the Vols to get them from behind after their nation-leading defense was seemingly exposed by Josh Dobbs and company.
Vanderbilt owns a 34-17 road win over Florida in 2013 and could have easily won again last year in The Swamp, when they fell to the Gators 9-7 on what was a sloppy game for both sides, controlled by the defenses. This year?s edition of the Commodores is regarded as far superior to last year?s squad. Vandy has already shown their potential, as they own wins over a mid-major power in Western Kentucky as a 9?-point pooch on the road and they absolutely tarred Middle Tennessee State (47-24), a team highly touted as a dark horse to win the C-USA. The strides are already noticeable because Vanderbilt lost to Western Kentucky at home last year. Perhaps this progression will continue with a primed opportunity to take down a traditional divisional power. There is no question the Commodores are heading in the right direction. With Vanderbilt?s defense curtailing two of the FBS? more potent offensive units, the ?Dores with points at home is the prudent play here. Not only do we get the host with points, we get them in better form than the Gators and also in a better frame of mind after Florida blew an 18-point lead against the Vols last week.
Illinois +20 over NEBRASKA
For Nebraska, their stock can be no higher, as they are getting close to their ceiling where they can only go down from here. The Cornhuskers, dating back to their 2015 bowl game against UCLA, have won their last their five contests straight-up and have covered in all five. As an overvalued favorite last week at Northwestern, the ?Huskers obviously covered again so now would not be the right time to leave them be because there are even more inflated points to be had here. Incidentally, things could have easily gone sour for the 'Huskers against the spread last week against Northwestern. The Wildcats could have easily covered if not won the game had it not been for some terrible plays on the special teams? end of things. Coupling this with Nebraska?s contentious defeat of Oregon and a couple of tune-up wins against Wyoming and Fresno State and suddenly Nebraska has emerged in the forefront as a potential dark horse to win the Big 10. When teams? continue to win, expectations continue to grow and then there is always an analyst or two that ?goes out on a limb? by exaggerating and/or grandstanding the prospects of a team (Nebraska) that is off to a hot start. Truth is, the Cornhuskers numbers are grossly skewed after putting up big yardage against three extremely weak defenses in four games. With tremendously winnable games against Indiana and Purdue on deck after this one, Nebraska is in real danger of an exhale of sorts here. They have not had an easy time of it the past two weeks and now the media has them convinced that the next three games are gimmes beginning with this one.
The Illini are 1-2 both straight up and against the spread. Nevertheless, Illinois emerged victorious against Nebraska last year in Champaign by virtue of a 14-13 classic and Illini signal caller Wes Lunt was the man under center in that affair. He will once again be back to spearhead offensive operations against Nebraska for one last time as a senior. Lunt was the orchestrator of an Illinois rally in the fourth quarter which catapulted the Illini to a victory over many of the members of Nebraska?s defense. Incidentally, Illinois trailed by 13 points but shut out the ?Huskers in the second half to give them a chance to win. While Nebraska on paper is certainly a better football team, the intangibles may be in favor of Lunt and company. Illinois has a win over Murray State and that is all she wrote so they are in the quintessential buy-low situation. They have also had two weeks to prepare for this one.
CLEMSON +100 over Louisville
Usually we are not that enamored by marquee, prime time college games because the lines are so tight but our hand is forced in this one simply because the Tigers are a dog, albeit a small one, at home. The fact that Clemson is not at least a 3-point favorite is preposterous. Louisville is grabbing headlines across the nation because of the insane amount of points they are putting up every week but they have not even come close to seeing anything like what awaits them here. Truth is, it is Lamar Jackson that is the cause for all the hype that surrounds the Cardinals but in a game of this magnitude, it takes a balanced effort to defeat a balanced team like the Tigers, of which Louisville is not.
The Cardinals are 4-0 and have scored 59 points or more in all four games. Lost in those victories is that three of the four teams that Louisville faced, Charlotte, Syracuse and Marshall can?t stop the marching band. The market only sees points scored and while the game against Florida State was an eye opener, it was just one of those games that got out of hand because Florida State tried to do things they were not capable of when they fell behind early. We?ll take nothing away from Louisville's dismantling of FSU but four wins with massive points proves nothing yet. This is a Louisville team that lost to Pitt, Houston, Auburn and Florida State a year ago and they also lost to Clemson in Louisville and scored just 17 points. Yes, Louisville is better this season and Lamar Jackson is obviously legit but he is not going to run wild in Death Valley against this defense. Louisville lost its first three games last year. Coach Bobby Petrino was not going to make that same mistake this year and so he scheduled games against weak opposition. He picked three cupcakes and the points that the Cardinals put up raised their stock to an off the charts level right now. This market loves points but we love defense and fading overhyped teams and that?s precisely what we get here.
Ya?ll remember Clemson, no? The Tigers put up outstanding offensive numbers too because they may just have the best offensive player in the country in Deshaun Watson. What the Tigers have that the Cardinals do not is a proven and outstanding defense. That defense was actually the group that carried this team to a near flawless record last year and a flawless record so far this year. Clemson is being disrespected here and we can almost assure you that they?ll use that (being a dog at home) as bulletin board material. This is an outfit with fantastic intangibles, no glaring weaknesses and the best player in the country running the show and now they?re evenly priced in Death Valley? Get in line.
South Florida at Cincinnati
Play: Over 61
Conference opener for both teams and I expect the offenses to have the better of it. The Bulls have been rolling along quite efficiently with their up-tempo, run based spread offense; 35+ points in all four games. They?ve averaged over 7 yards per play and face a Bearcats defense that in two games against their toughest competition (Houston and Purdue) allowed 500+ total yards. USF has scored at least 35 points in eight consecutive games and at least 200 rushing yards in nine straight games dating back to last year. Even in last week?s narrow 27-20 win over Miami (OH), the Bearcats yielded nearly 6 yards per play. I don?t trust Cincinnati to neutralize South Florida?s balanced offensive attack that carved up the Bearcats for 65 points on 573 total yards last season. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack had a field day in that contest and I think both are poised for more success here.
On the flip side, the South Florida defense came completely unglued against Florida State last week as it allowed 55 points on 647 total yards. The Seminoles averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per pass. Even in the 45-20 win against Syracuse, South Florida?s defense struggled to get stops allowing 549 total yards to the Orange at a 5.3 yards per play clip.
Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore was a late scratch prior to last week?s game against Miami (OH) with an ankle injury but head coach Tommy Tuberville says there is a good chance that Moore will play. The Bearcats have a solid running back tandem with Tion Green and Mike Boone and two good receivers in Devin Gray and Nate Cole. I expect Cincinnati should be able to move the football in this game and put up points with its offense averaging 5.7 yards per play on the campaign. Let?s play this one over the total.
3:30 PM CFB [165] TOTAL o73-115 (North Carolina vrs Florida State)
4:05 PM MLB [952] Washington Nationals -174 ( W Chen - L / T Roark)
4:05 PM MLB [953] Los Angeles Dodgers -210 ( C Kershaw - L / T Blach)
4:10 PM MLB [955] Chicago Cubs -220 ( J Lester - L / T Adleman - R )
1:05 PM MLB [958] Saint Louis Cardinals -163 ( C Kuhl - R / M Wacha)
1:05 PM MLB [959] New York Mets -185 ( B Colon - R / P Klein - R )
1 unit bet pays 28 ....betdsi line .... evening parlay posting later..
MLB parlays: 17-167, -31.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Mets clinch today with this win. They have been in must-win mode of late, and have been getting the job done.
Colon is coming off a rough outing, the emotional game in Miami. But he is an excellent 'bounce back' pitcher - he's given up 5+ER or more in 4 starts this season, and in the next start after these 4 his ER were 3,0,1,1 respectively.
Mets are facing a gift for thier must-win games: The Phillies. Phila has bad pitching and even worse batting, and are not ending the season well. Today they are trotting out Phil Klein to start, he has a 12.15 ERA on the year for Phil (three games, one start). At the start of the year he was with Texas, where he pitched out of the pen in 8 games for a 5.19 ERA. Career he has 3 starts with a 8.03 ERA.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Clayton Kershaw will close out his 2016 season with a road outing against the Giants, who are still vying for a Wild Card spot. The Dodgers ace has been better than ever this season, as his 16.8 strikeout-to-walk-ratio would be the best in baseball history -- by a mile -- if he had enough innings to qualify. He also hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his last three starts. A matchup against the Giants, who strike out less than any team in the NL, might not be ideal, but it's worth noting that he fanned 13 Giants when he last pitched in AT&T Park back in June. In other words, the normal rules do not apply for the three-time Cy Young winner.
Jon Lester is a worthy pivot. In fact, a case can be made that taking Lester along with the savings is the better play in cash games. The Cubs lefty has been on a different level of late. Over his last eight starts, Lester has allowed only four runs. Total. Of course, he doesn't have Kershaw's strikeout upside, but he finds himself in a much, much more appealing spot, facing a Reds squad that's one of the worst in baseball against southpaws (82 wRC+) and whiffs at a healthy 23 percent clip.
Twins +105
I like the value we are catching with the Twins as a small road dog in Saturday's meaningless game between the Twins and White Sox. Minnesota's Hector Santiago is coming off a couple of average starts, but has been throwing much better down the stretch. He been locked in on the road this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 15 starts. What I really like is how well Santiago has thrown against Chicago. He's faced the White Sox 3 times this season and all 3 times he posted a quality start, twice throwing 7 shutout innings. He also allowed just 11 hits with 23 strikeouts in his 20 innings against them. Chicago will counter with James Shields who has been all over the place this season, with most of it being bad. He's 6-18 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last 11 starts, he's giving up 4 runs or more 7 times and 6 of those he allowed 5 or more.
Tanner Roark draws a favorable home start against a Marlins team that's struggled against right-handed pitching this season (91 wRC+). They do strike out just 19 percent of the time versus righties, which is the fifth-lowest mark in baseball, but whiffs aren't a big part of Roark's game anyway. Although he got roughed up by Arizona his last time out, the right-hander has been a picture of consistency this season. He's held sub-3.00 ERAs in each of the last three months, and he hasn't posted a monthly ERA north of 3.56.
North Carolina vs. Florida State
Pick: North Carolina
Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, an assistant at LSU from 2000 through 2006, took time out from his weekly session with the media to dispel any talk about the job opening that came up this week when LSU fired Les Miles. "I'm not talking about LSU. We're talking about North Carolina," said Fisher, adding that he also has not had contact with anyone from LSU nor would he listen if they called him or his agent. North Carolina and its high-powered passing offense (334.0 YPG ranks 14th) comes to Tallahassee, where the now 12th-ranked Seminoles have won 22 straight home contests (a current FBS-best).
Fisher and his Seminoles have enough on their hands without any distractions about Fisher?s coaching future, as FSU badly need this one because the Seminoles are already 0-1 in the ACC and another loss in conference play would all but knock them out of the running for any sort of title in 2016, including the national playoffs. The Tar Heels are unranked but have won three in a row since dropping their opener 33-24 to Georgia. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has led North Carolina to an average of 47.0 PPG in its three consecutive wins. He?s completing 74.5% of his passes for 1306 yards on the season, throwing 10 TD passes without an INT (in 137 attempts).
FSU?s freshman QB Deondre Francois looked inept in the team?s embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville (completing just 7 of 18 for 101 yards with a TD and an INT) but on the season is completing 62.8% for 951 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. RB Dalvin Cook was among a group of preseason Heisman favorites but after three games, he had just 228 rushing yards and two TDs. However, things changed last Saturday in Tampa against USF, as the Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (had 478 yards), led by Cook?s 267 yards (9.5 YPC) and two TDs.
History will note that Florida State is 15-2-1 against North Carolina overall but did lose the last meeting in Tallahassee back in 2010. North Carolina is off a thrilling, last-second victory when Mitch Trubisky?s school-record fifth TD pass with two seconds remaining gave the Tar Heels a 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh. Note that the victory also extended North Carolina?s ACC regular-season winning streak to nine. Will the Tar Heels extend it to 10 in a throw, here? Maybe not but I?m taking the points.
Wake Forest at NC State
Play: Under 48.5
On a perfect 3-0 run with the ACC free play involving the Pittsburgh Panthers, I?ll shift away and tap into an Atlantic Division contest. Situational edge here goes to the Wolfpack which enter the game off of a bye week. Last season NC State had the same bye week situation and won 35-17 in Winston Salem. That could be where the similarities end because at this juncture of the season, the fundamentals in this matchup look a bit different.
In their late October meeting last season, NC State running back Matt Dayes ran wild scoring two touchdowns of 50+ yards and gaining 205 overall. Dayes and the NC State ground game have had a strong start to this season (210.7 ypg) but the Wake Forest run defense has been a rock allowing just 88.5 rypg and 2.7 per carry. What has been vulnerable is the Demon Deacons pass defense which has yielded an average of 414 ypg in contests versus Duke and Indiana. Wake Forest?s other two games were against triple-option Tulane and FCS heavily run oriented Delaware. NC State?s first-year starting quarterback (Boise State transfer) Ryan Finley has completed an amazing 76.3% of his passes thus far with six touchdowns and no interceptions. If Wake Forest is able to focus on and contain Dayes and the ground game, Finley can hurt their weak secondary through the air.
Wake is off of a 33-28 road underdog victory last week against Indiana but the statistical line shows some very concerning numbers. Every team would love to be +5 in turnover margin like the Deacons were last Saturday but to have that monster advantage and only win by five points indicates some flaws. The most glaring was the 611 total yards Indiana gained as they shredded the Wake Forest defense for 7.7 yards per play and 17.7 per pass completion.
The contest last week in Bloomington is somewhat of an aberration because of the all the big plays. Wake Forest had the five takeaways, a blocked FG, ran an interception back for a TD and scored 33 points despite 11 of their 15 possessions gaining only 22 yards or less. Their run defense was again stout vs. a very capable IU ground attack led by Devine Redding who had his string of five straight 100+ yard games ended.
NC State?s offense will be facing a major step up in class here after facing three poor defensive units in a row and they may be hard pressed to run against Wake Forest the way they did last year primarily because the Deacons no longer have to defend the read option. Having to account for Jacoby Brisset?s running ability last year did open things up for other NC State runners but Finley isn't much of a running threat. I like the way the Wolfpack defense is playing right now and look for them to keep Wake's point production to much less than last week. Money has already taken a bite out of this total but still feel good about a recommendation on the under.
Wake Forest +11
One of the more surprising early season teams has been Wake Forest, who enters Saturday?s game at NC State at 4-0 on the season and fresh off a road win at Indiana last week. The Wolfpack of NC State enter Saturday?s game with a 2-1 mark on the young season and are actually off a bye this week. This Demon Deacons team, while not yet ready to compete for a conference title, appear to be much improved this season, especially offensively which has been their problem over the last few seasons. Wake also went on the road three weeks ago and won 24-14 at Duke, so they have played some solid competition early in the year. NC State lost a squeaker at East Carolina in week two but have really not played the same level of competition as Wake. The Deacons defense is surrendering just 16.5 PPG and is especially stout vs. the run, giving up only 88 rushing YPG. The Wake Forest defense continues to do a great job pressuring the QB and forcing their opponents into mistakes, as evidenced by the defense coming up with six interceptions and 12 team sacks. We believe the reason for the double-digit line is the history in this series, which has been dominated by NC State. In what appears to be an attractive trend here this week, Wake Forest is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. teams with a winning record, while NC State is 0-4 in the same spot against quality foes at home. Another great trend here backing Wake here is that the road dog has been a really solid play in this series, covering 67% of the time.
GEORGIA +4 over Tennessee
Anyone that wagered on the Bulldogs last week never really stood a chance, as Georgia fell behind by a big margin early on and lacked any life whatsoever the rest of the way. The best time to come back on a team is off a horrible outing because the number is largely based off that one performance. Playing at Ole Miss last week, the Dawgs were being offered seven points and now they are being offered just three less at home against the Vols. Do you see how that works? It is not right because Mississippi is a true juggernaut while Tennessee is still the same soft team that they have been for years. That Tennessee is ranked 11th in the nation is nothing but fool?s gold which we will look to exploit. What we know for sure is that the Dawgs will respond here with a much better effort, as this host has too much talent and pride not to.
The Vols have played three SEC teams so far this year and in that time, they have three good quarters out of 12. Florida's halftime smugness last week led to its subsequent collapse and it also masks the fact that Tennessee is still playing mistake-prone and situationally unaware football. The pollsters are always the easiest to fool but the cat is somewhat out of the bag with the oddsmakers, who had the Vols installed as a mere field-goal favorite at a struggling Georgia team that also has seen its Vegas stock crash this year. The betting population has bet it up to its current price of -4. The reduction in value and soft schedule means that we?ll need to be more prudent in picking spots, but don't expect Tennessee to beat anybody that's truly any good the rest of the way and the Dawgs are among that group. Georgia is a very tempting ML play here but we?ll use caution and take the points.
Purdue +11 over MARYLAND
While the Boilermakers are not a team we like to get behind because they?re sloppy and their coach makes Jeff Fisher look like Bill Gates, the Terps must be faded in Big-10 play when they are favored in this range. The last time we saw the Boilermakers was last week when they escaped with a 10-point win over Nevada but the Wolf Pack had a chance to tie it with a FG late in the fourth before Purdue sealed it. The score itself looks ugly but the numbers tell a different story. Purdue had a 265 to 122 total yards advantage at one point but three turnovers prevented the game from turning into a route. Way too much emphasis is being placed on the final score (a 10-point win but a near loss) but Purdue eventually outgained Nevada by 213 yards. The Boilermakers can score points with QB David Blough?s talents. Blough hits his receivers in the numbers and the Terps will also have to prepare for Blough?s ability to hit his receivers deep. Two games ago against Cincinnati, the Boilermakers were only a three-point dog and now they?re getting 11 points because why?
The Terps are 3-0 but don?t be fooled by that ridiculous record, as they have played Howard, FIU and UCF. Combined, that trio is 2-10 but both FIU and Howard are 0-4. UCF?s two victories were against South Carolina State and FIU. Let us remind you that even with the projected three wins to open the year, oddsmakers had the Terps over/under win total for the year at 5?. If we could bet it today, we would still go under because wins are going to be scarce and that might even include today. The Terps are a weak team that does not have the talent nor are they physical enough in the trenches to survive life in the Big Ten East. Not only are the Terps unlikely to cover this game, they may lose it outright so don?t be afraid to play Purdue in a couple of ML parlays. Purdue is the better team, they are more battle tested and they?re taking back sick points. We?re going to step it up here and play Purdue on the money line for 1 unit @ +355 and take the points for another 2 units for a total risk of 3.18 units.
Northwestern/Iowa Under 44
Offense should be hard to come by for both of these teams on Saturday. Iowa's offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, only scoring 21 at home against FCS foe North Dakota State and then just 14 last week against a Rutgers team that allowed 48 to Washington and 38 to New Mexico.
If you have watched Iowa, you know they are team that likes to grind out possessions by running it down their opponents throats and throwing only when they need to. They figure to have to rely on the run a little more with senior wide out Matt VandeBerg sidelined with a foot injury. VandeBerg leads Iowa with 19 receptions and 284 yards. The next best on the team is tight end George Kittle with 10 catches for 192 yards. No one else on the team is in double-digits in receptions or has more than 100 yards receiving.
I Northwestern allowed 310 rushing yards last week to Nebraska, but a good chunk of those (132) came from quarterback Tommy Armstrong. While Iowa quarterback, C.J. Beathard is mobile, he's only got 3 rushing yards on the season. Even with all that success on the ground, the Cornhuskers still only managed 24 points. I think the Wildcats are more than capable of keeping this Iowa offense in check and making them eat up a lot of clock when they do put together a scoring drive.
On the flip side of this, Iowa's defense is the real deal. The Hawkeyes come in only giving up 13.5 ppg and just 365 ypg. They should have zero problem here against an anemic Northwestern offense that is scoring just 16.2 ppg. Wildcats have really struggled to run the ball and that's going to put them in a lot of 3rd and long situations which will make it tough on them to sustain drives. Keep in mind the last two years they have scored a combined 17 points in their two games against Iowa, both times finishing the game with fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
UNDER is 20-7 in Northwestern's last 27 following a double-digit loss at home, 10-4 in their last 14 after giving up 200 or more yards rushing and 22-9 in their last 31 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 34-18 in Iowa's last 52 games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games.
VANDERBILT +12 over Florida
Every time the Gators play the Commodores, they are spotting inflated points and this time around is no different. In some pre-season analyses, pundits had the Gators at full health and realized the potential of losing this game to Vandy on the road. Now, we are asking this same Gators team to spot double-digit points after coming in off a game of what could have been, when the Gators fell 38-28 in Knoxville last Saturday. Additionally, the Gators offense remains a question mark in light of reserve quarterback Austin Appleby?s reliable performance against the Volunteers. Finally and perhaps the most significant variable to throw into the mix is Florida?s mindset after blowing an 18-point lead in the second half to allow the Vols to get them from behind after their nation-leading defense was seemingly exposed by Josh Dobbs and company.
Vanderbilt owns a 34-17 road win over Florida in 2013 and could have easily won again last year in The Swamp, when they fell to the Gators 9-7 on what was a sloppy game for both sides, controlled by the defenses. This year?s edition of the Commodores is regarded as far superior to last year?s squad. Vandy has already shown their potential, as they own wins over a mid-major power in Western Kentucky as a 9?-point pooch on the road and they absolutely tarred Middle Tennessee State (47-24), a team highly touted as a dark horse to win the C-USA. The strides are already noticeable because Vanderbilt lost to Western Kentucky at home last year. Perhaps this progression will continue with a primed opportunity to take down a traditional divisional power. There is no question the Commodores are heading in the right direction. With Vanderbilt?s defense curtailing two of the FBS? more potent offensive units, the ?Dores with points at home is the prudent play here. Not only do we get the host with points, we get them in better form than the Gators and also in a better frame of mind after Florida blew an 18-point lead against the Vols last week.
Illinois +20 over NEBRASKA
For Nebraska, their stock can be no higher, as they are getting close to their ceiling where they can only go down from here. The Cornhuskers, dating back to their 2015 bowl game against UCLA, have won their last their five contests straight-up and have covered in all five. As an overvalued favorite last week at Northwestern, the ?Huskers obviously covered again so now would not be the right time to leave them be because there are even more inflated points to be had here. Incidentally, things could have easily gone sour for the 'Huskers against the spread last week against Northwestern. The Wildcats could have easily covered if not won the game had it not been for some terrible plays on the special teams? end of things. Coupling this with Nebraska?s contentious defeat of Oregon and a couple of tune-up wins against Wyoming and Fresno State and suddenly Nebraska has emerged in the forefront as a potential dark horse to win the Big 10. When teams? continue to win, expectations continue to grow and then there is always an analyst or two that ?goes out on a limb? by exaggerating and/or grandstanding the prospects of a team (Nebraska) that is off to a hot start. Truth is, the Cornhuskers numbers are grossly skewed after putting up big yardage against three extremely weak defenses in four games. With tremendously winnable games against Indiana and Purdue on deck after this one, Nebraska is in real danger of an exhale of sorts here. They have not had an easy time of it the past two weeks and now the media has them convinced that the next three games are gimmes beginning with this one.
The Illini are 1-2 both straight up and against the spread. Nevertheless, Illinois emerged victorious against Nebraska last year in Champaign by virtue of a 14-13 classic and Illini signal caller Wes Lunt was the man under center in that affair. He will once again be back to spearhead offensive operations against Nebraska for one last time as a senior. Lunt was the orchestrator of an Illinois rally in the fourth quarter which catapulted the Illini to a victory over many of the members of Nebraska?s defense. Incidentally, Illinois trailed by 13 points but shut out the ?Huskers in the second half to give them a chance to win. While Nebraska on paper is certainly a better football team, the intangibles may be in favor of Lunt and company. Illinois has a win over Murray State and that is all she wrote so they are in the quintessential buy-low situation. They have also had two weeks to prepare for this one.
CLEMSON +100 over Louisville
Usually we are not that enamored by marquee, prime time college games because the lines are so tight but our hand is forced in this one simply because the Tigers are a dog, albeit a small one, at home. The fact that Clemson is not at least a 3-point favorite is preposterous. Louisville is grabbing headlines across the nation because of the insane amount of points they are putting up every week but they have not even come close to seeing anything like what awaits them here. Truth is, it is Lamar Jackson that is the cause for all the hype that surrounds the Cardinals but in a game of this magnitude, it takes a balanced effort to defeat a balanced team like the Tigers, of which Louisville is not.
The Cardinals are 4-0 and have scored 59 points or more in all four games. Lost in those victories is that three of the four teams that Louisville faced, Charlotte, Syracuse and Marshall can?t stop the marching band. The market only sees points scored and while the game against Florida State was an eye opener, it was just one of those games that got out of hand because Florida State tried to do things they were not capable of when they fell behind early. We?ll take nothing away from Louisville's dismantling of FSU but four wins with massive points proves nothing yet. This is a Louisville team that lost to Pitt, Houston, Auburn and Florida State a year ago and they also lost to Clemson in Louisville and scored just 17 points. Yes, Louisville is better this season and Lamar Jackson is obviously legit but he is not going to run wild in Death Valley against this defense. Louisville lost its first three games last year. Coach Bobby Petrino was not going to make that same mistake this year and so he scheduled games against weak opposition. He picked three cupcakes and the points that the Cardinals put up raised their stock to an off the charts level right now. This market loves points but we love defense and fading overhyped teams and that?s precisely what we get here.
Ya?ll remember Clemson, no? The Tigers put up outstanding offensive numbers too because they may just have the best offensive player in the country in Deshaun Watson. What the Tigers have that the Cardinals do not is a proven and outstanding defense. That defense was actually the group that carried this team to a near flawless record last year and a flawless record so far this year. Clemson is being disrespected here and we can almost assure you that they?ll use that (being a dog at home) as bulletin board material. This is an outfit with fantastic intangibles, no glaring weaknesses and the best player in the country running the show and now they?re evenly priced in Death Valley? Get in line.
South Florida at Cincinnati
Play: Over 61
Conference opener for both teams and I expect the offenses to have the better of it. The Bulls have been rolling along quite efficiently with their up-tempo, run based spread offense; 35+ points in all four games. They?ve averaged over 7 yards per play and face a Bearcats defense that in two games against their toughest competition (Houston and Purdue) allowed 500+ total yards. USF has scored at least 35 points in eight consecutive games and at least 200 rushing yards in nine straight games dating back to last year. Even in last week?s narrow 27-20 win over Miami (OH), the Bearcats yielded nearly 6 yards per play. I don?t trust Cincinnati to neutralize South Florida?s balanced offensive attack that carved up the Bearcats for 65 points on 573 total yards last season. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack had a field day in that contest and I think both are poised for more success here.
On the flip side, the South Florida defense came completely unglued against Florida State last week as it allowed 55 points on 647 total yards. The Seminoles averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per pass. Even in the 45-20 win against Syracuse, South Florida?s defense struggled to get stops allowing 549 total yards to the Orange at a 5.3 yards per play clip.
Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore was a late scratch prior to last week?s game against Miami (OH) with an ankle injury but head coach Tommy Tuberville says there is a good chance that Moore will play. The Bearcats have a solid running back tandem with Tion Green and Mike Boone and two good receivers in Devin Gray and Nate Cole. I expect Cincinnati should be able to move the football in this game and put up points with its offense averaging 5.7 yards per play on the campaign. Let?s play this one over the total.
