Saturday picks and a few early leans..

[CrazyHorse]

Went 3-0-1 last night with a nice dog pick in Anaheim. My 4 day total since I started posting wednesday is 9-1-1. (+8.9 units)Still trying to play mostly totals. I have a few plays and also would appreciate any comments:

Posted this one last night so I will just paste the write-up here:

ATL/NYM over 8.5 (-120)
Glavine is now 3rd in MLB in walks and has a 1.64 WHIP. His last 5 starts all went over 8.5 and his last 5 games he started the totals were 13,17,11,18,9. He also leads all Braves' starters in run support at 4.8 per game. Rusch's #'s are just as bad, as opposing batters are hitting .338 against him and his WHIP's average 1.72. I do worry that he has had 2 solid outings in his past 5, but overall I will take my chances as he has given up 98 hits in 69 innings. Playing for 1.5 units.

TOR/BOS under 9.5 (-120)
Both pitchers have pitched well and seem to be very consistent. Opposing batters are averaging .235 vs Michalek and the under is 6-1 in his last 7 day starts. The under is also 14-3-1 in Toronto's last 18 road games. Due to the fact bullpens have killed me on my unders this will be for .5 unit.

PHI/FLA over 9 (-110)
Both teams have been hitting the ball well recently. Clement is now tied for 5th in walks given up at 44. Philly is hitting righties at an average of .310 in thier last 10. Playing for one unit.

Leans that I would appreciate any thoughts or comments on:

Milwaukee +139 over Cubs.
Mostly based on the fact both pitchers have similar #'s but Tapani's are not as good in his last 3. At +139 think it has good value. I will look into it more.

White sox -135 over Baltimore
Buehrle(sp?) #'s have been awesome and has a .98 WHIP and .77 in his last 3. Only concern on this one is the way Baltimore has been hitting lefties lately.

Kansas City +145 over Cleveland.
If I do play this one it will just be a play against Burba. Would just hope KC can win a high scoring game, so I will look into it further.

Will post any added plays later. Any comments would be appreciated. GL to all today..

 

[phoenix566]

Love your total selections. Did us nice last night

I threw away Mil/Chi & KC/Cle. I agree there is 'value' in the takeback for Mil, but they did win yesterday and cubbies do not lose too many at home this year. I try and find a solid side before even worrying about the price. To me this game is a coin flip. Cle I am just too scared to back most times. I kick myself when they win as heavy road chalk, but I sure wasn't when they were in Pitt last weekend. I do like Buehrle for the sox.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Thanks Phoenix, one base hit in the bottom of the 9th and we would have got the win, not the push. But the way that game started I felt fortunate to get the push. Adding:

Milwaukee +142 over Chicago.
This was +130 last night and I felt it was a possible play then. Tapani's #'s have not been as good recently and Milwaukee is 5-1 in day games that Wright starts. He has a 2.49 ERA in those games. Tapani has given up 23 hits in his last 14 innings. Playing for .5 unit.

Passing on CWS as Ponson's #'s are pretty good and CWS does not have a good road record. I usually take K Wells and Buerhle in most of their starts, but can't back him on the road against a team that has been hitting lefties very well recently. GL to all and I may be back later with one or two more plays.