hitting 60% and still down on the year. awesome money management right there.
starting with some thoughts on uconn/wvu. not quite sure if i can pull the trigger. wvu has OWNED uconn, beating them by 24, 45, 26, 32, and 12 points the last 5 years. of course, this is not quite the same wvu team. no pat white, no steve slaton. and has wvu played a decent defense yet this year? here is their schedule so far.... liberty, east carolina (56), auburn (72), colorado (96), syracuse (84), marshall (80). so they haven't played a defense in the top 55 in the country (sorry, liberty, i didn't bother looking you up). uconn is 28th in the country in total defense. all signs point to uconn being the play. but, obviously, there is a huge question mark. do they play inspired today to honor their slain teammate? or is it just too big of a distraction? i'm leaning towards a play on the huskies. any connecticut guys out there? bear?
ok, on to our regularly scheduled thread....
rice (+10) 1 unit. huh. could be the first time i've ever recommened taking the owls. yeah, they're awful. but central florida has no business laying 10 on the road to anybody.
clemson (+4.5) 2 units. well, worst case is i give back what i won on the tigers last week (my genius play, for you regular readers). more of the same here... the opening line seemed pretty legit, if not a tiny bit low. then it suddenly gets hammered down to 4.5? i can guarantee you it was not joe q. public hammering the clemson tigers in the middle of the week. somebody very smart (and with a lot of money) expects the tigers to pick up where they left off against wake forest. i've said all year the hype on miami was way overblown. this should be a tight, low-scoring game. side note - doesn't clemon do this every single year? high expectations... slow start... and just when you've written them off, they come back with some big wins.
texas tech (-22) 1 unit. no value left in this line, after tech won at nebraska and a&m was dismantled by a bad kansas state team. but not only has tech covered the last 5 at home against a&m, they haven't even been close. this is how many they covered the spread by in those games - 18, 26, 25, 7, & 17.
michigan state (-1.5) 2 units. almost identical situation as last week. iowa opens as a slight road favorite, then suddenly the home team is favored by a point or two for no apparently reason. last week, wisconsin opened up a 10-point lead before remembering that they suck. will sparty do the same this week? iowa is really not that good, and i have to believe at some point they will come crashing back down to earth.
tcu (-2.5) 1 unit. i don't know, maybe this is too obvious. tcu's defense is just so dominant. and they've already proven they can win close games on the road, with a 4-point at clemson and a 3-point win at air force. gotta look at the under here, too.
missouri (+13) 1 unit. now that texas has beaten oklahoma, maybe today is the day their slow starts come back to bite them in the ass. if, IF, mizzou can get that offense going early, i can certainly see them getting ahead and staying there.
starting with some thoughts on uconn/wvu. not quite sure if i can pull the trigger. wvu has OWNED uconn, beating them by 24, 45, 26, 32, and 12 points the last 5 years. of course, this is not quite the same wvu team. no pat white, no steve slaton. and has wvu played a decent defense yet this year? here is their schedule so far.... liberty, east carolina (56), auburn (72), colorado (96), syracuse (84), marshall (80). so they haven't played a defense in the top 55 in the country (sorry, liberty, i didn't bother looking you up). uconn is 28th in the country in total defense. all signs point to uconn being the play. but, obviously, there is a huge question mark. do they play inspired today to honor their slain teammate? or is it just too big of a distraction? i'm leaning towards a play on the huskies. any connecticut guys out there? bear?
ok, on to our regularly scheduled thread....
rice (+10) 1 unit. huh. could be the first time i've ever recommened taking the owls. yeah, they're awful. but central florida has no business laying 10 on the road to anybody.
clemson (+4.5) 2 units. well, worst case is i give back what i won on the tigers last week (my genius play, for you regular readers). more of the same here... the opening line seemed pretty legit, if not a tiny bit low. then it suddenly gets hammered down to 4.5? i can guarantee you it was not joe q. public hammering the clemson tigers in the middle of the week. somebody very smart (and with a lot of money) expects the tigers to pick up where they left off against wake forest. i've said all year the hype on miami was way overblown. this should be a tight, low-scoring game. side note - doesn't clemon do this every single year? high expectations... slow start... and just when you've written them off, they come back with some big wins.
texas tech (-22) 1 unit. no value left in this line, after tech won at nebraska and a&m was dismantled by a bad kansas state team. but not only has tech covered the last 5 at home against a&m, they haven't even been close. this is how many they covered the spread by in those games - 18, 26, 25, 7, & 17.
michigan state (-1.5) 2 units. almost identical situation as last week. iowa opens as a slight road favorite, then suddenly the home team is favored by a point or two for no apparently reason. last week, wisconsin opened up a 10-point lead before remembering that they suck. will sparty do the same this week? iowa is really not that good, and i have to believe at some point they will come crashing back down to earth.
tcu (-2.5) 1 unit. i don't know, maybe this is too obvious. tcu's defense is just so dominant. and they've already proven they can win close games on the road, with a 4-point at clemson and a 3-point win at air force. gotta look at the under here, too.
missouri (+13) 1 unit. now that texas has beaten oklahoma, maybe today is the day their slow starts come back to bite them in the ass. if, IF, mizzou can get that offense going early, i can certainly see them getting ahead and staying there.
