the run finally ended last week, but i hit my larger play with uconn, so it wasn't a total loss. still shooting for 60% on the year.
oklahoma (-7.5) 2 units. doesn't really make sense, does it? 6-5 oklahoma favored by a touchdown over 9-2 oklahoma state? but keep in mind, oklahoma has covered 4 straight against the cowboys, and 3 straight matchups in norman. and looking at oklahoma state's schedule... what is their biggest win? at texas a&m? here is the national rank of ok st's opponents in terms of overall defense:
72, 49, 99, 3, 96, 43, 100, 110, 112, 32
that '3' kinda stands out. they've played one team with a defense ranked in the top 30. and that was texas, who manhandled ok st, 41-14. oklahoma's defense is ranked 11th. i look for the sooners to take out their frustrations over a terrible season today.
east carolina (-6) 2 units. insane line movement here, and i don't see any injuries that would justify it. southern miss has won and covered at least 5 straight meetings at east carolina and 7 out of 8 overall in this matchup. and yet this morning, the line jumped at a lot of places from 3.5 to 6. strangely, the rest of 'em already had it at 6. something strange is afoot at the circle k.
tulane (+19) 1 unit. i may never get 19 points from SMU again in my life (i missed out earlier this year when they beat rice by 3, also laying 19). yeah, tulane is god awful bad, but SMU is 0-3 ATS as a fav.
arizona st (+3) 1 unit. this is arizona state's bowl game. as far as arizona... what is it with the stoops brothers in big games? arizona controlled their destiny, then lost to a cal team having a very disappointing season and then choked away the rose bowl last week against oregon. arizona is 1-3 on the road this year, with the only win coming in a revenge game against oregon state. arizona state has covered their last 3 home games, including 2 as a dog.
florida (-24.5) 1 unit. geez, it's real hard to play the gators laying this many points, isn't it? florida hasn't looked nearly as dominant this year, and now they HAVE to be looking forward to the SEC champtionship game, don't this? a lot of people are on florida state, but the line is creeping up. the favorite has covered 9 of the last 11 in this matchup.
arkansas (+3.5) 2 units. the last 4 matchups in this series have been decided by a total of 10 points. 2 teams heading in opposite directions. lsu has lost their last 2 conference games. they are also 3-10 ATS their last 13 home games. arkansas has won 4 straight games. granted, they were all at home, but they only lost by 3 at florida. big game today for the hogs.
notre dame (+10) 1 unit. ugh. please don't make me play notre dame. dammit. the irish are 3-8 ATS on the year, but they are 2-0 as a dog. with the 3-game stretch stanford is coming off of, how can they get up for this game? huge wins over oregon and USC, then a loss to their rival. tough to bounce back from that.
georgia (+7.5) 2 units. another 'dammit, don't make me play this team' play. everybody is on georgia tech. and how could you not play the yellow jackets? georgia is wrapping up their worst season in a while. and now they have to face the option attack? yeah, good luck maintaining your discipline. so i really have no idea how the bulldogs keep this close. only stat in my favor... the road team is 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 in this matchup.
oklahoma (-7.5) 2 units. doesn't really make sense, does it? 6-5 oklahoma favored by a touchdown over 9-2 oklahoma state? but keep in mind, oklahoma has covered 4 straight against the cowboys, and 3 straight matchups in norman. and looking at oklahoma state's schedule... what is their biggest win? at texas a&m? here is the national rank of ok st's opponents in terms of overall defense:
72, 49, 99, 3, 96, 43, 100, 110, 112, 32
that '3' kinda stands out. they've played one team with a defense ranked in the top 30. and that was texas, who manhandled ok st, 41-14. oklahoma's defense is ranked 11th. i look for the sooners to take out their frustrations over a terrible season today.
east carolina (-6) 2 units. insane line movement here, and i don't see any injuries that would justify it. southern miss has won and covered at least 5 straight meetings at east carolina and 7 out of 8 overall in this matchup. and yet this morning, the line jumped at a lot of places from 3.5 to 6. strangely, the rest of 'em already had it at 6. something strange is afoot at the circle k.
tulane (+19) 1 unit. i may never get 19 points from SMU again in my life (i missed out earlier this year when they beat rice by 3, also laying 19). yeah, tulane is god awful bad, but SMU is 0-3 ATS as a fav.
arizona st (+3) 1 unit. this is arizona state's bowl game. as far as arizona... what is it with the stoops brothers in big games? arizona controlled their destiny, then lost to a cal team having a very disappointing season and then choked away the rose bowl last week against oregon. arizona is 1-3 on the road this year, with the only win coming in a revenge game against oregon state. arizona state has covered their last 3 home games, including 2 as a dog.
florida (-24.5) 1 unit. geez, it's real hard to play the gators laying this many points, isn't it? florida hasn't looked nearly as dominant this year, and now they HAVE to be looking forward to the SEC champtionship game, don't this? a lot of people are on florida state, but the line is creeping up. the favorite has covered 9 of the last 11 in this matchup.
arkansas (+3.5) 2 units. the last 4 matchups in this series have been decided by a total of 10 points. 2 teams heading in opposite directions. lsu has lost their last 2 conference games. they are also 3-10 ATS their last 13 home games. arkansas has won 4 straight games. granted, they were all at home, but they only lost by 3 at florida. big game today for the hogs.
notre dame (+10) 1 unit. ugh. please don't make me play notre dame. dammit. the irish are 3-8 ATS on the year, but they are 2-0 as a dog. with the 3-game stretch stanford is coming off of, how can they get up for this game? huge wins over oregon and USC, then a loss to their rival. tough to bounce back from that.
georgia (+7.5) 2 units. another 'dammit, don't make me play this team' play. everybody is on georgia tech. and how could you not play the yellow jackets? georgia is wrapping up their worst season in a while. and now they have to face the option attack? yeah, good luck maintaining your discipline. so i really have no idea how the bulldogs keep this close. only stat in my favor... the road team is 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 in this matchup.
