Saturday Service Plays 7/26/08

[the duke]

Comps


San Diego at PITTSBURGH (-120) Karl Garrett

How can I not like another OVER in the Padres-Pirates game?

Last night the teams once again hit the OVER column, as the Padres are now on a 5-2-1 OVER clip their last 8 games, while the Pirates are on a 4-1-1 OVER run their last 6 games.

Expect the hitters to come through once again, as both starting pitchers don't figure to be around too long in this game.

Banks is just 1-4 for the Padres this year, and his last 3 starts show 11 runs allowed in his last 17 innings of work, while VanBenschoten counters with an 0-1 mark over 3 starts, and an ERA near 10.

Yes, the hitters will have their way tonight for sure.

Play on the OVER.

3♦ OVER


N.Y. Yankees (+105) at BOSTON Bobby Maxwell

Gone 29-24 with our last 53 FREE selections on the diamond and today we'll deliver a winner on the Yankees as they visit Boston to take on the Red Sox.

The hottest team since the All-Star break has been the Yankees as they've won seven in a row and today they'll make it eight in a row as they send Andy Pettitte (11-7, 3.86 ERA) to the hill at Fenway Park.

New York shut out the Red Sox 1-0 on Friday and the Yankees have climbed to within two games Boston and now trail first-place Tampa Bay by three games. New York is 21-8 in its last 29 games against teams with a winning record and 21-8 on Saturdays.

Pettitte is 2-1 in his last three games with a 2.05 ERA and he's 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA on the highway. He went eight innings against the A's on Sunday and beat Oakland 2-1, the seventh New York win in his last nine starts. In his career, Pettitte is 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 appearances against Boston.

Tim Wakefield (6-7, 3.69) goes for the Red Sox and he is 9-16 with a 5.01 ERA in 46 career outings against the Yankees. On Sunday he gave up four runs in seven innings and lost to the Angels 5-3.

New York is 45-21 when Pettitte faces A.L. East competition and 42-20 when he gets a full five days of rest. Meanwhile the Red Sox are just 1-11 when Wakefield faces a team with a winning record and 1-8 in his last nine against A.L. East rivals.

The Yankees are hammering the ball right now and count of them doing plenty of damage against the knuckleballer today. Play New York to win its eighth straight.

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES


White Sox at DETROIT (-150) Sports Gambling Hotline

Tonight in Detroit, expect a ton of goose eggs on the Comerica scoreboard, as two of the games hotter hurlers take the mound.

Chicago starter John Danks is coming off a poor effort at home against the Royals, but those poor starts have been few-and-far-between on the road this season, as Danks is a nice 4-1 on the road this year, and sports a road ERA of 1.92 for the season.

His counterpart Justin Verlander has been on fire, allowing 2 runs or less in ALL 5 of his last 5 starts, while throwing an impressive 33-plus innings of work.

Verlander's last start against the Pale Hose was a complete game 4-hitter in which he allowed just 1 run in notching the victory.

13 of Danks' 19 starts this season have played UNDER the total, while 11 of Verlander's 18 starts this season have played LOW.

Just not a lot of offense in the cards this evening

Play on the UNDER in the Chicago-Detroit divisional battle tonight.

2♦ UNDER

 

[the duke]

Comps


Nelly

Kansas City + over Tampa Bay

Scott Kazmir has very average numbers away from home with a 4.10 ERA and a losing record. He pitched extremely well in his last start but that game came at home and against a struggling Oakland lineup. Even with seven shutout innings in that game Kazmir has a 4.54 ERA over his last six starts and Tampa Bay has not proven that it can consistently win on the road with a 19-26 record away from Tropicana Field. Kansas City is 18-14 against left-handed starters this season and the Royals play solid ball at home. The Royals have won three straight against the Rays at home going back to last season and Tampa Bay is 4-10 in the last 14 games overall as they have not been playing at the level of their place in the standings. The Rays are hitting just .222 in the last ten games and Kansas City is a better team than most give credit. Luke Hochevar is also a capable starter and he should bounce back from his last outing.




James Patrick

New York vs. Boston 3:55 p.m. est.
Yankees have won seven in a row and are 7-2 in Andy Pettite?s road starts. Tim Wakefield is 0-5 against the Pinstripes and our Saturday complimentary selection in American League action is #919 New York Yankees.


Marc Lawrence

Play On: Arizona w/Webb

Note: The Diamondbacks take on the Giants in San Francisco this evening when they send Brandon Webb to the hill against Tim Lincecum in a battle of staff aces. Webb has pitched well away this season as evidenced by his 2.71 ERA this season. In addition, his 46/9 KW ratio in his last eight road efforts is exceptional. He's also 8-3 at night with a 3.14 ERA this season. With Webb 12-2 in his last 14 team starts on Saturdays, look for the Giants to dip to 7-14 on Saturdays here tonight.




Greg Daraban

927 Chicago WS (57-43) at 928 Detroit (52-49)
Danks 7-4 ERA 3.03 vs Verlander 8-9 ERA 3.95
Friday Chicago won 6-5 . The Sox lead the division, because of solid pitching.
Danks is 7-4 and is very capable of dropping the hammer on the Tigers hitters.
Take 927 Chicago WS

 

[the duke]

Comps

Matt Rivers

Saturday let's lay a run and a half with Cole Hamels and the Phillies.

(Possible pitching change to Mike Hampton, as usual stay with play)

The last few six or so weeks have not been that great at all for Charlie Manual's boys from Philadelphia but I just do not see anything but an easy victory today as there is too much in our favor (basically everything by a ton).

The Braves have been brutalized this season by Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and the talented Phils. It has been extremely lopsided, something like 7-1 and with the situation today there is just no reason to believe anything changes.

Chipper Jones is banged up and more than likely will miss this game. Without Jones the Bravos are just not the same team. We have seen this a bunch this season and in previous years as well. Mark Teixeira is awesome but he is more than likely going to be traded and Atlanta is not and has not played very good ball this season. Bobby Cox' squad has very little momentum going their way, even with a few recent wins including yesterday, and are on the cusp of being a total seller before the trading deadline.

The pitching matchup is slanted in a big-time way in our favor as Hamels is a total stud who is due to get some run support today after getting very little of late leading to his somewhat lack of wins on the season. The guy is light years better than his mound opponent in Jo Jo Reyes who was just destroyed at home by the light hitting and fairly weak Nationals.

How can this game not finish 9-1 for the Phillies? Even if it's 2-0 that's fine with me as I just do not see a close game and laying the run and a half at this price is half a bargain!



Tony Weston

Tonight, go with the Pirates over the San Diego Padres in the Steel City. Despite losing 6-5 to the Padres last night the Pirates will get over tonight.

Consider that San Diego is only 2-9 its last 11 games and it is 5-14 its last 19 games on the road. Also keep in mind that only twice this year have the Padres won back-to-back road games.

The Pirates also come into this game 4-1 their last five games and are 5-4 their last nine home games.

Pittsburgh will have no problems with a bad Padres team that is only 16-35 on the road this season.

Go with the Pirates tonight.

3♦ PIRATES (On a 1-5♦ Scale)


Jimmy The Moose

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles Jul 26 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels has won 8 of their last 9 games. The Angels are 14-6 in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing record. LAA is 13-5 in their last 18 games as a road favorite. The Angels are 16-7 in their last 23 road games. The Angels are 4-0 in Garland's last 4 starts vs. AL East opponents. The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 6 games. In their last 9 as a home dog they are 1-8. Baltimore is 4-13 in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Los Angeles Angels




Robert Ross

Game: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers Jul 26 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Tigers, at home, ought to rebound off last night's one-run loss. DETROIT is 19-9 against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons and 10-2 against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Take Detroit!

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

St. Louis (57-48) at N.Y. Mets (56-47)

The first-place Mets try to stay red hot when they send rookie Brandon Michael Knight (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the hill for his first big-league start against the Cardinals and veteran Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52) at Shea Stadium in New York.

New York has won three straight and 15 of its last 18 to open a two-game lead over the Phillies in the A.L. East race. The Mets scored a 7-2 win Friday in the series opener against the Cardinals and have won eight of the last 12 against St. Louis dating back to last season. They?ve won 10 of their last 11 games at Shea and 10 of their last 13 against right-handed starters.

Since winning four straight after the All-Star break, the Cardinals have now lost five in a row and their last seven against teams with a winning record.

Knight is coming up from Triple-A New Orleans where he was 5-1 in 11 games with a 1.60 ERA. He did have an impressive strikeout-to-walks ratio, fanning 49 while allowing just 10 walks in 39 1/3 innings.

Pineiro has allowed nine runs on 20 hits in his last 11 2/3 innings, including three runs on 10 hits in a 6-3 loss to the Brewers on Monday. The Cardinals have lost seven of his last 10 outings and back on July 2 he gave up four runs on 11 hits in five innings but his offense bailed him out for an 8-7 victory over the Mets.

The under is 19-7-4 in the Cardinals last 30 games against teams with a winning record and 7-0-1 when they are an underdog. The under is also on runs of 11-3-3 in New York?s last 17 games as a favorite and 9-2-2 in its last 13 at home.

The under is 9-4-2 in the last 15 series meetings and 6-0-1 in the last seven matchups at Shea Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (54-45) at Boston

The Yankees try to make it eight in a row since the All Star break when they send veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (11-7, 3.86) to the mound at Fenway Park to face Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (6-7, 3.69).

New York won its seventh in a row Friday behind the pitching of young Joba Chamberlain who blanked Boston 1-0. The Yankees have climbed to within two games of the Red Sox in the A.L. East standings and trail first-place Tampa Bay by three games. New York is 21-8 in its last 29 games against teams with a winning record and 21-8 in its last 29 Saturday games.

DeSpite Friday?s setback, Boston has been dominant at home, going 40-12 dating back to last season and 10-2 in its last 12 against southpaws at Fenway. These two rivals have split 10 meetings this season with the Yankees winning three straight and their last two in Boston.

Pettitte is 2-1 in his last three games with a 2.05 ERA and 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA on the road. He pitched eight strong innings on Sunday, limiting the A?s to one run on four hits of a 2-1 victory, the Yankees? seventh in his last nine starts. Last time he saw the Red Sox, Pettitte gave up six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-0 loss. For his career, the lefty is 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 appearances against Boston.

Wakefield lost to the Angels on Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss. It was the first time in 10 outings he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Back on July 6 he allowed three runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Yankees and he is just 9-16 with a 5.01 ERA in 46 career outings against New York.

The Yankees are 45-21 when Pettitte pitches against A.L. East rivals and 42-20 when he gets five days of rest, but they are just 3-7 when the veteran is a road ?dog. On the opposite side, Boston is 41-19 when Wakefield is a favorite and 37-17 when he pitches at Fenway, but just 1-11 in his last 12 against teams with a winning record and 1-8 when he faces A.L. East foes.

With Pettitte on the hill, the under is on runs of 35-16-2 overall, 19-7 when he pitches on the road and 17-5 against the A.L. East. When Wakefield pitches, the over is 13-3-1 in his last 17 as a home favorite and 22-7-1 in his last 30 Saturday starts.

Overall for the Yankees, the under is on streaks of 21-7-2 overall, 7-1 on the highway and 28-11-1 against the A.L. East. For Boston, the under is 8-3-2 in its last 13 home games against teams with a winning record and 5-1 overall.

In this rivalry, the over is on runs of 22-7 at Fenway Park, 4-0 when Pettitte starts in Boston and 6-2 when he faces them anywhere. However the teams have stayed under the total in 11 of 18 Wakefield starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES


Chicago White Sox (58-43) at Detroit (52-50)

The White Sox snapped Detroit?s four-game winning streak on Friday and now try to make it two in a row in Detroit when they send lefty John Danks (7-4, 3.03) to the mound at U.S. Cellular Field in Detroit to take on the Tigers? Justin Verlander (8-9, 3.95).

Chicago got a homer from Jermaine Dye in the ninth inning to come back and beat the Tigers 6-5 Friday and snap a three-game losing streak to Detroit. The White Sox have now won three straight but they are just 4-3 since the All-Star break, 5-11 as an underdog and 2-8 in their last 10 against teams with a winning record.

Even with the loss, Detroit is 20-9 in its last 29 at home and 36-18 as a favorite. The Tigers are 5-3 since the break, 36-18 when they are favored and 46-20 when they face left-handed pitching.

Danks is 2-0 in his last three starts and the lefty is 4-1 on the road with a 1.92 ERA. He got drilled by the Royals on Sunday, allowing six runs on nine hits in four innings of an 8-7 loss, snapping a streak of four straight wins by the White Sox with Danks on the hill. He faced the Tigers three times last season, allowing 11 runs in 17 1/3 innings as Chicago went 2-1.

Verlander seems to have found his form lately, going 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Orioles to one run on three hits in 8 2/3 innings of Sunday?s 5-1 victory, the Tigers? sixth straight with him on the mound. He?s already seen the White Sox three times this season and pitched a gem back on June 11, throwing a complete-game four-hitter as the Tigers won 5-1. But for his career, Verlander is just 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA in 11 starts against Chicago.

Chicago is just 4-9 when Danks gets five days of rest but it is 4-1 when he faces A.L. Central competition. The Tigers are 7-0 with Verlander favored but just 4-12 when he faces A.L. Central rivals.

The under is on runs of 8-2 with Danks on the road, 7-2 when he?s an underdog and 13-5 in his last 18 overall. For the Tigers, the over is 19-9-1 with Verlander as a home favorite but the under is 6-1 in his last seven against A.L. Central teams. Detroit has topped the total in 16 of 26 home games against southpaws and the over is 18-5 when the White Sox face A.L. Central teams, however the under is 46-22 with Chicago as a ?dog and 36-16 when they are a road ?dog.

In this rivalry, the under is 40-18-3 in the last 61 meetings in Detroit and 8-2 when Verlander goes against the White Sox.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[the duke]

Brian Marshall

July 26 2008

Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Plays On: Detroit Tigers (-140)

Game Analyses: The Detroit Tigers should be able to beat the Chicago White Sox in Saturday's MLB contest.

The Chicago White Sox will be lead by starting pitcher John Danks. John Danks has been having huge pitching problems as of late. In fact, John Danks has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see John Danks having another bad game today.

The Detroit Tigers will be lead by starting pitcher Justin Verlander. Justin Verlander has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Justin Verlander has a 1.99 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Justin Verlander pitching another great game today.

The Chicago White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games as an underdog, while the Detroit Tigers are 36-18 in their last 54 games as a favorite.

The Detroit Tigers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Chicago White Sox, and should be able to get another win today!

Take the Detroit Tigers!


John Fina

July 26, 2008

Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)

Reason: Put us down on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today the Arizona Diamondbacks will be on the road as they take on the San Francisco Giants. We will side with the Arizona Diamondbacks! One reason why we will side with the Arizona Diamondbacks is because they will be sending to the mound the much superior starting pitcher. This says it all... The Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher (Brandon Webb) has a 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts, while San Francisco Giants Starting Pitcher (Tim Lincecum) has a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Arizona Diamondbacks have the much better starting pitcher on the mound. We see the Arizona Diamondbacks getting another win today! Take the San Diego Padres!



Tony Mathews

July 26, 2008

Matchup: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles

Selection: Los Angeles/Baltimore Over 10 (-110)

Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as the Los Angeles Angels face-off against the Baltimore Orioles in Saturday's MLB contest.

The Los Angeles Angels will use starting pitcher Jon Garland. Jon Garland has struggled this season. In fact, Jon Garland has a 4.12 ERA on the season. In addition, Jon Garland has a 4.91 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Jon Garland giving up many runs once again today.

The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Radhames Liz. Radhames Liz has also struggled this season. In fact, Radhames Liz has a 7.19 ERA on the season. In addition, Radhames Liz has a 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Radhames Liz also giving up many runs once again today.

Trend: The Over is 7-2-1 in the Baltimore Orioles last 9 home games.

We expect to see another high-scoring game tonight!

Take the Los Angeles Angels/Baltimore Orioles Over 10!

 

[the duke]

Armvin Sports

St Louis Cardinals 117

Chicago White Sox 134




Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees last night.

Today it's the Yankees. The surplus is 225 sirignanos.


Hondo

Who's your Padre? Hondo stayed red hot last night as San Diego hung on in Pittsburgh to increase the runaway earnings to a season-high 890 ortas.

Today, he'll mess with Texas by giving the ball to Duchsherer (or Chsch, for short). Ten units on the A's.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Ross Benjamin

Colorado @ Cincinnati
Pick:Over 10.0

These two teams are both capable of putting up a lot of runs in this hitter friendly ballpark. Especially in light of the two starting pitchers. In 3 starts at home this season Homer Bailey has posted a very lofty 9.49 ERA and given up 6 home runs in just 12.1 innings. In 5 road starts this season the Colorado starter DeLarosa has posted a terrible 8.01 ERA. The Rockies entered the weekend hitting a robust .310 as a team over their last 10 games. The Reds entered the weekend hitting .309 as a team over the last 10 games versus left-handed pitcher. Play on Over.


Steve Merril

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Chicago +1?

The White Sox scored two runs in the top of the ninth inning last night for an impressive 6-5 win and they should carry that momentum into tonight?s game. My pitcher performance ratings also predict a solid outing by Chicago?s John Danks. Danks is coming off a rare bad performance last Sunday when he allowed 6 runs and 9 hits in just 4 innings versus Kansas City. Despite that bad outing, he still has a solid 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his 20 starts with a 97-33 strikeout/walk ratio, including an incredible 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his 9 road starts with a 6-3 team record and a 47-13 K/BB ratio. Danks has also shown the ability to bounce-back after a bad start. In fact, after his worst start of the season on April 9th when he allowed 7 runs, he then pitched back-to-back games without allowing a single run. The +1? run-line provides extra value and protection in this game as it should be a fairly low-scoring game as both teams have quality starting pitchers on the mound tonight.


Jorge Gonzalez

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

ATLANTA (48 - 53) at PHILADELPHIA (54 - 48) Saturday, 7/26/2008 3:55 PM MIKE HAMPTON (L) vs. COLE HAMELS (L) The Phillies will be sending their ace to the mound in Cole Hamels (9-6, 3.11). The Braves are as fortunate as they send a struggling Jo Jo Reyes (3-9, 4.95) to start against the powerful bats of Philadelphia. Reyes has been battered in his last three starts with a record of 0-3 and an ERA 10.12. The Braves have struggled a bit against lefties with a record of 14-20 and are scoring just 3.9 runs per game. The road hasn?t been nice to the Braves either with a record of 17-33 and again is scoring an anemic 3.9 runs per game. The Phillies offense has exploited lefties for an average of 5.2 runs per game. Take the Phillies -1? Runs.


Terron Chapman

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Florida Marlins

Rich Harden has shown his value since being traded to the Cubs from the Oakland Athletics. Too bad for the Cubs it has not translated into wins. Harden will once again try for his first win in a Cubs uniform as he and the Cubs continue their four game series with the Marlins Saturday afternoon.

Harden was outstanding in his last start against the D-Backs allowing only a solo home run, but got hit with the loss in the 2-0 defeat. He has allowed just one run in 10 1/3 innings since joining the Cubbies. It will be interesting to see how long he can pitch at such a high level. The Marlins are more than capable of scoring off Harden as this will be the second time they have seen him this season. He allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings in the A's 7-6 win over the Marlins on June 20.

We backed Christopher Volstad in his last start which was a 4-0 home loss to the Atlanta Braves. That was the 21 year-old's first home start and it showed. But we expect him to rebound this afternoon against a Cubs team who is struggling going just 3-5 since the all-star break. The offense has not been there as they have scored just six runs in those losses. They have never faced the right hander who has electric stuff and held the Dodgers to just 5 hits and 1 earned run in 8 2/3 innings in his only road start.

The Marlins are not your typical 2:1 underdog. They have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Cubs including five of the last six in Wrigley. They have an offense that leads the majors in home runs and keeps them in the game. The Cubs had major issues in the bullpen with Kerry Wood healthy and with him now on the DL, the pen situation looks even more confusing.Play on the Florida Marlins for 1 unit.


Carlo Campanella

Game: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Jul 26 2008 3:55PM

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Reason: Must back these Phillies as they start Cole Hamels on the mound to host Atlanta on Saturday. He's 9-6 this year, but comes into this off a 2-3 loss- which he should have won- at Florida in which he allowed 2 Earned Runs that came from allowing 2 Home Runs! Expect Hamels to rebound from that loss as we find him at a very profitable 4-1 after giving up 2 HRs in his previous start this season!

7* Play On Philadelphia


Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 26 2008 10:10PM

Prediction: Washington Nationals

Reason: At 10:10pm our member selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Will the National League West crown a division champion with a losing record? It's certainly possible. After all, here we are almost into August, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are atop the NL West without a winning record. The Dodgers are a game back at 50-52, and just can't seem to find any rhythm. One night they can't score any runs, the next they fall victim to their own horrendous pitching performances. Tonight's starter, 35-year-old veteran righthander Derek Lowe has been the epitome of inconsistency. Lately however, he's just been mostly bad as the former Red Sox hurler has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. Another big problem this season for Lowe is run support. The Dodgers have failed to score more than two runs in almost half of Lowe's starts this season (10 out of 21). Each of these teams will be without its regular closer as the Dodgers' Takashi Saito is out until at least September with an elbow strain, while the Nationals just traded Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a second baseman prospect that they coveted. The loss of Saito should hurt L.A. a lot more however, as he has been its regular closer since 2006, while Rauch just inherited the job earlier this season. The Nats should get a boost by the recent return of their best offensive player and regular third baseman, Ryan Zimmerman, and we'll back the huge underdog tonight. Take Washington.

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall


PETTITTE and the YANKEES +105 over Red Sox--Andy's been on fire of late and has been pitching brilliantly. I say NY gets another one and beats Wakefield in the process

Seattle +135 over Toronto--RA Dickey throws knucklers all day in T-Town and stuns the Jays

Derek Lowe -200 and Dodgers over Nationals--I just think the Nats blow ass and Lowe will make it look easy !

Lincecum and Giants (even odds) over Webb and the Diamondbacks--this is the game of the night and I'm going with the kid at home

Milwaukee -170 over Houston--The Brewers aren't slowing down any time soon ! Bush over Backe here

San Diego (even odds) over Pittsburgh--Banks isn't that bad and has a decent ERA of 3.51--Padres steal one at PNC

 

[the duke]

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (923) LA Angels and (924) BAL Orioles. Take "Under". The first place Angels send Jon Garland to the mound on Saturday and he's had a fine year for the halos. Garland is 8-6 overall with a 4.12 era. Moreover, on the road, Garland is 5-2 with a 4.17 era. Garland is coming off a fine winning performance over the Red Sox, where he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just two earned runs. Radhames Liz has a nice 4-2 mark on the year and if he can keep the ball in the strike zone, he should be able to keep this game close. We'll take the under here on Saturday and look for Garland and Liz to take a close game to their fine respective pens and keep the game UNDER



Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (911) STL Cardinals and (912) NYM Mets. Take "(911) STL Cardinals".
This is the stuff movies are made from. Brandon Knight is making an emergency start for the Mets, and that in itself is almost incomprehensible. Knight had a couple of cups of coffee with the Yankees back in '01-02. He was out of organized ball from '03-06 except for a very brief and unsuccessful stint in Japan. He pitched for the Somerset Patriots in Indy ball last season. Suddenly, from out of nowhere, he resurfaced at AAA with New Orleans, where he's been lights out of late for the Zephyrs. Knight actually had been named to to the Olympic team, but he'll instead now be getting his chance with the Mets in the heat of a pennant race. Unbelievable story! The sentimentalist in me wants Knight to do a great job here. But the reality is he's never shown anything resembling big league stuff, and I have to think the value play is to take the price with the Cardinals.

 

[herblight]

3and 0 sweep

3and 0 sweep

(909) COL Rockies vs (910) CIN Reds Game Starts at July 26 2008 16:10 EST Take (909) COL Rockies Rockies southpaw Jorge De La Rosa is pretty streaky, and he comes in off a very strong effort, so there's a decent chance he pitches well again here. I have no problem fading Homer Bailey, as the highly touted Reds prospect just hasn't shown he can get it done at this level. The Rockies loom as the right side.
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(923) LA Angels vs (924) BAL Orioles Game Starts at July 26 2008 16:05 EST Take (923) LA Angels Jon Garland has enjoyed quite a bit of success against the Orioles. The Angels should do well against Radhames Liz, as their patient approach is likely to work against a flame throwing righty who often has trouble locating home plate. I prefer the steady hurler here, and that's Garland, so the Angels are the choice.
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(919) NYY Yankees vs (920) BOS Red Sox Game Starts at July 26 2008 12:55 EST Take (919) NYY Yankees Andy Pettitte has been a frequent thorn in the side of the Red Sox. Tim Wakefield has that knuckler dancing lately, and the Red Sox continue to be pretty amazing at home. But Wakefield has had some trouble with several of the Yanks he'll be seeing here, and Pettitte has been mostly solid for a NY team that's been strong lately. I'm going to have to take the short dog odds with the Yankees.
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(923) LA Angels
(924) BAL Orioles

Read full analysis & pick
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(911) STL Cardinals
(912) NYM Mets

Read full analysis & pick
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Article archive

 

[the duke]

Las Vegas Sports Advisors


5*Tampa Bay -145

5*Los Angeles-D -1.5 (-105) Runline) List LOWE

5*Philadelphia -190

5*Arizona -105

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

Divisional Total of the Year (Day Game!) ***11-2 L13 MLB TOTALS!

I'm playing on the Rangers and A's to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game against each other last night but I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this afternoon. Yesterday's result notwithstanding, the A's have still seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 13-4-1 their last 18 games. Today's starter, Justin Duchsherer has been a big part of that 'under' success. Duchsherer has been outstanding all season, recording an excellent 1.87 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the season. He's been at his very best at home, too. Indeed, he's 7-1 with a remarkable 1.36 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in nine home starts, averaging more than seven innings per start. Batters are hitting just .144 against him in those games! Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 5-0 his last five starts. Those five games averaged just 3.6 runs a piece, with scores of 1-0, 3-2, 2-0, 4-3 and 2-1. Amazingly, in 17 starts, Duchsherer has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. That came way back in May, at Atlanta, and he allowed just three runs in that game! Duchsherer has faced Texas once this season. That game was back in May and finished well below the total, with a final score of 3-1. That was at Texas, too - where the Rangers typically hit much better than they do on the road. Rookie Matt Harrison goes for the Rangers and he's admittedly struggled his last two times out. However, the big southpaw proved that he could pitch in this league in his debut. In that game, he outdueled Saunders of the Angels, limiting LA to just five hits and two runs through seven complete innings, en route to earning a 3-2 victory. He retired the first 12 batters he faced and it marked the longest a Rangers' starter has gone in his debut since 2000. At the time, Rangers' second baseman Ian Kinsler commented: "He threw a great game is what he did. He commanded all three of his pitches. He worked down in the zone. He threw in effectively. He did all that in his debut, which is special." Harrison will enjoy a favorable matchup this afternoon and I expect him to look more like the pitcher we saw vs. the Angels. For starters, he's facing the A's for the first time. Additionally, and more importantly, the A's are absolutely terrible at hitting left-handers. In fact, they're averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting a mere .240 in those games. In their last two games against a left-handed starter, the A's managed just a single run, losing by scores of 4-0 and 2-1. Including those results, the UNDER is 4-0-1 their last five games against left-handed starters and a highly profitable 23-9-3 on the season. Despite yesterday's result, the UNDER is still a profitable 6-3 when the Rangers have played a road game with an over/under line of eight or 8.5. Look for those numbers to improve this afternoon, as this well-pitched affair proves to be lower-scoring than most are expecting.

*AL West TOY
Rangers/A's UNDER

 

[the duke]

BIG AL McMORDIE

BASEBALL DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR WINNER

At 7:05pm our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Chicago White Sox. As goes Justin Verlander, so goes the team he plays for -- the Detroit Tigers. Both Verlander and the Tigers started the season in horrible fashion. Through the month of May, the 25-year-old righthander was 2-8 with a 5.16 ERA while the Tigers were 23-32. Fast forward to late July, and Verlander has pitched so well that he has lowered his ERA below four runs and his team is remarkably two games over .500 at 52-50. Verlander is 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last eight starts, and in his last outing he just missed a complete game, getting pulled with two outs in the ninth inning against Baltimore. But the best news for the Tigers is that they have worked themselves back into contention in the American League East and are only 6 1/2 games back with plenty of time to catch both Chicago and Minnesota. This three-game series against the Sox is obviously critical. Chicago's John Danks has had a breakout year, but he had a rough going against the lowly Royals in his last start, lasting only four innings. Despite its inconsistent season, Detroit has maintained its huge advantage in its home park, going 20-9 in its last 29 games. And the Tigers have crushed lefty starters the past two seasons, including 20-7 this year.

AL Central Game of the Year
Detroit Tigers

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Sat (MLB) Blue Jays
Sat (MLB) W. Sox

 

[the duke]

JB's Computer Picks

New York Yankees +105

New York Mets -135

Arizona Diamondbacks -120

 

[the duke]

COBRA 1500

Tampa Bay (-155)
Los Angeles-N (-200)
Milwaukee (-165)
Colorado (+1.5) (-185)
St Louis (+1.5) (-175)
Chicago-N (-240)
Philadelphia (-225)
New York-A (+1.5) (-200)

 

[the duke]

CHARLIES SPORTS

mlb. minnesota @ cleveland under 8' runs (500*)

mlb. boston-120 (30*)

mlb. cincinnati-125 (20*)

mlb. pittsburgh-115 (20*)

mlb. mets-135 (10*)

mlb. cleveland-125 (10*) free play

 

[the duke]

Sebastian

300* LA Angeles

50* NY Yankees

50* Colorado

30* Tex/Oak under 8

20* SD/Pitt over 10


Comp -Det

 

[the duke]

SAPKOWSKI

Best Bet
Colorado vs. CINN over 5 in 1st 5 IN

Premium
Colorado
Milwaukee

Free
pass

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

15* TV Game of the Week

Josh Becket had beaten the Yankees three times in '08, allowing three ERs in each outing. Beckett held the Yanks to one run last night over seven innings (his best outing this year vs New York) but was out-pitched by Joba Chamberlain (7 IP / 3 hits / 0 runs / 9 Ks) as the Yanks won 1-0. Boston must now regroup for an afternoon game at Fenway in which the Red Sox will face Andy Pettitte and a Yankee team which has now gone 7-0 since the break. Pettitte is 11-7 with a 3.86 ERA this year and comes in pitching extremely well. He had a terrible five-start stretch from April 25-May 15 in which he went 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA (team was 0-5). Doing the math, that makes him 11-3 with a 3.24 ERA over his other 16 starts this year and that includes a June 7 outing in which he allowed 10 ERs (it would be 2.55 without that one game). Pettitte's lifetime mark vs the Red Sox is excellent (15-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts) but he struggled against them in his lone start this year vs Boston (a 7-0 home loss on July 3), when he allowed six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 4.2 innings. Let's also note that he has allowed at least four ERs in four of his last six starts against Boston (going back to April 27 of last year). The ageless Tim Wakefield gets the call for Boston and Wakefield is once again doing yeoman's work for the Red Sox. He went 17-13 last year, getting a decision in all but two of his 32 starts in '07 (team went 19-13). He enters this game 6-7 with a 3.69 ERA but deserves a much better fate. He's pitched into the 7th inning in 10 consecutive starts, allowing more than three ERs just one time (allowed four) and one ER or less in seven outings. Despite all that, he's just 3-3 while the Red Sox are only 4-6. While the Yanks are red-hot, how can one go against Boston in this spot? The Yanks are just 24-23 on the road this year, while Boston is 16-6 vs lefties (9-2 at home). What's more, the Red Sox are 13-2 in day games at Fenway Park in '08, averaging 6.9 RPG!

TV Game of the Week
15* Boston Red Sox




Weekend Wipeout Winner

The Tigers opened the season 0-7 and after June 6 were just 24-36. However, the team won 28 of its next 41 games and entered this weekend three-game series with the White Sox just 5 1/2 games back in the AL Central. Chicago looked vulnerable coming onto this series, with the pitching staff having posted a 6.61 ERA over its previous three series. Chicago's bullpen really struggled during that nine-game span, with a 7.06 ERA and a .305 opponents batting average. However, it was Detroit's bullpen that was the culprit on Friday. The Tigers led last night 4-1 heading into the 7th but let it slip away when Dye hit a two-run HR in the 9th to cap Chicago's 6-5 comeback. Can the Tigers bounce back? I believe so, despite the fact that they'll have to face John Danks. Danks has had a very good year for the White Sox in '08, going 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 20 starts (team is 12-8). One has to take notice of his 1.92 road ERA but one can also question whether Danks is really as good as his numbers. He was just 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA (team was 9-17 in his starts) in '07 (rookie season) and his last two starts here in '08 have been rather ugly.He allowed seven hits and four ERs (7.2 IP) in a 9-7 win at Texas right before the break and in his lone start since the break, lasted just four innings, allowing nine hits and six ERs in an 8-7 home loss to the Royals. That's 16 hits and 10 ERs over 11.2 innings (7.71 ERA). The lefty will be facing a Detroit team which was 28-15 vs lefties in '07 (averaged 5.9 RPG) and one that is 20-7 (5.1 RPG) against left-handed starters in '08. Expect the Tigers to get to Danks and with Verlander on the mound, Detroit is in good shape. Verlander was one of the AL's top starters the last two seasons, going 35-15 with a 3.64 ERA. The Tigers went 41-21 (plus-$1,653) in his 62 regular season starts in '06 and '07, making him one of MLB's top "money-makers" as well. However, that Justin Verlander was nowhere to be found at the beginning of the '08 season. He opened 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA over his first eight starts (team was 1-7) and even when he began turning things around, the team continued to lose when he was on the mound, falling to 2-11 in his first 13 starts of 2008. However, Verlander's struggles are long gone, as he's allowed two ERs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. More importantly, the wins have returned since a June 11 start. Verlander beat the White Sox 5-1 that day, beginning a eight-start stretch in which he's gone 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA (team is 7-1), while holding opponents to a combined batting average of just .183!

Weekend Wipeout Winner
Detroit Tigers