SATURDAY - stats and plays

[Randercity]

Saturday's here... may the cashier be near!

Just went thru the early line since I'm like the ONLY one up at this hour and I'm tired of writing crap in everyone else's thread,

So here goes, my early leans... which I'm doing for the first time mind you!

St Louis at NY METS

Looking at METS here. STL is terrible on the road, especially vs LH. METS let this one get away and they promised to be spoilers down the stretch, so look for them to get revenge... grab it early though if you like em, I see this line going up to -140!

Boston at BALTIMORE

This game gives us the same matchup we had last nite, BIGGEST difference is the day off for BOSTON to rest. Look for them to dominate this game. Normally jet lag sits in the 2nd day, but if you didn't do anything but get dressed, well, then.... BOSOX AND UNDER was the play yesterday, check stats on UMPS and day/nite difference in pitchers.

Arizona at ATLANTA

I've been posting for awhile that ATL at home vs RH are UNDER .500, and almost ALWAYS laying big wood. They've lost the last two nites vs RH, and will continue to lose when the visitor has better offense and the pitching is close to equal, it is. ZONA also has one of the best road records in MLB. Both these pitchers have shown good and bad, I'd wait on this one... ATL money will come in, and I think ARIZONA is the play. Lots to check out first... ATL losing three straight at home though, hmmmm lotta veterans there.

San Fran at CHI CUBS

First instinct... JUMP ON GIANTS! Bonds and Gallaraga rested yesterday, CUBS probably used up ALL the runs they'll get all weekend the way they've been hitting, and SF has LIVIAN going who is much better on road, than home vs BOROWSKI WHO??? I'm a HUGE CUB fan, but this just don't look right. Been a long time since SAN FRAN lost two straight!

Minn at TAMPA BAY

Two struggling teams, one in the hunt, and the other, well who knows! BOTH offenses are struggling to score, and if not for having THOMAS start, I'm inclined to think this is UNDER! BUT, with bad pitching like we ave here, anyone can hit! RUPE is a HUGE pitching plus for TBAY, but MINNY might be worth a look, as TBAY probably got out their frustration of losing to YANKS Thurs, and they struggled against PETTITE two nites ago, a fellow lefty. Doubt if they show up today...

Los Angeles at PHILA Time change

Don't be surprised if PHILA wins again today. As I've mentioned, LA is very streaky, and LA is struggling to get people out right now. This game may be a great OVER situation as PHILA supports PERSON well usually, and GAGNE may be due for a bad start, as BALDWIN was. LA bats have heated up also, and keeping this game UNDER 9 may not be possible... lean to PHIL and OVER.

That's it... that's all for breakfast! ENJOY!

 

[Randercity]

St Louis at NY METS

BEFORE you jump on HERMANSON and STL, be warned! His last five starts were ALL at HOME, and like KILE, he likes the home cooking. NOT near as effective on the road. RUSCH meanwhile has been pitching LIGHTS OUT in last three, all on the road. His only problem is lack of production, as he gets very few runs to work with. Strong trends for UNDER as RUSCH is 8-2 UNDER in last ten, HERMANSON 7-1 last 8. BUT, last four meetings have all gone over, 5 of last 6 STL road games OVER, and we have an OVER HP UMP. I pass on the total, but will go with the METS to exact some revenge as they are 11-3 in last 14 at home. STL is also weak vs LH on the road, as they have gone -550 Moneywise in that position.

METS -120

Boston at BALTIMORE

BOSTON made my board last nite, only to get rained out, and we get to keep the same matchup. I was playing the UNDER last nite as TOWERS games are 5-1 UNDER at nite. Well folks, it ain't nite time anymore! With BOSTON rested, they are 12-1 after a day off

, I'm passing on the total. CONE continues this UNBELIEVABLE resurrection for BOS, and they just don't let this guy lose very often. Look for them to continue TOWERS slide, as BALT has lost his last six starts. Lots of strong trends, and we only have to lay -140!

Here's a few:

• BOS is 12-1 after a day off.
• BOS is 12-5 in Game 1 after a loss
• BOS is 33-18 after a loss overall.
• BOS is 28-18 in day games...
• BALT is 4-16 last 20 at home and 23-33 at home.
• BALT is 14-23 in day games, and finally
• BALT is 11-28 vs teams with winning record while BOS is 38-22 vs teams w/losing record.

As you can see, BOSTON beats the teams they should with regularity, and BALT lays down against teams they know are better, which BOSTON clearly is.

BOSTON -145

 

[Randercity]

adding...

BOST OV 9.5 EVEN

BIG TIME OVER UMP behind HP!

 

[fletcher]

good call on the a's last night i just could not pull the triger.like i said the bp scares me,but if you get 7-8 innings out of a's starters then they are good to cash ticket,have to pass again today on that game.
good luck.

 

[Randercity]

Thanks Fletcher... actually I'm leaning towards playing the YANKS tonite, still looking at some stuff, but last nite's beating, coupled with the almost TBAY disaster should have TORRE plenty pissed, and I look for a real focused effort outta NY tonite. The way the other four starters are going, YANKS gotta jump on the Hiljus kid tonite if they DON'T wanna get swept. OAK still struggles vs LEFTIES, and if BOS takes BALT today, gotta think NYY will come out firing. YANKS don't want to end up Wildcard and facing SEA first round, that's for sure.

 

[Randercity]

Sorry... had write-ups done for these next games, and my puter froze again!

Gonna have to get it checked...

adding:

SAN FRAN -105 played overnite
CUBS OVER 9.5 Even
ATLANTA UN 8.5 EVEN
PHILA -120
TAMPA BAY +135

 

[Randercity]

UGGGGGGGHHHHH! 0-3 start...

hopefully nobody is reading this thread today! Guess JT was right, the JET LAG must have kicked in on BOSTON... 2 costly errors, totally pathetic pitching by CONE, and only 2 runs on two dingers. In retrospect, TOWERS WOULD be effective with an UMP with a big strike zone, as he has excellent control, and if allowed to pitch ala Glavine/Maddux and get calls OUTSIDE the plate, well, it can be a long day for hitters. Ended up killing the BOS play and the OVER. Thought we had a chance after the rainout, but BOS didn't seem interested today.... strange.

The METS, well JT warned me about playing them, but I already had. Failed to check individual stats vs RUSCH that JT is sooo famous for. Cost me big time as MAC went deep, but the biggest problem was men left on base by NY... pathetic. Hopefully the 2nd set helps get this back and sets up this evening's plays!

JUST A NOTE: Pitchers have gone NUTS in WRIGLEY the past few days... HAMPTON went deep on THURS, LEIBER two hits two runs on FRI, and LIVIAN is saying "HAMPTON WHO??" The guy is 2-2 today, with a HR, giving him 9 HITS in his last 10 at bats!

 

[Randercity]

adding...

CINCY -130
HOUSTON OV 9 EVEN
SAN DIEGO -120
MONTREAL -135

 

[Randercity]

I'm like the DODGERS, very streaky! Start 0-3 -3.65 Units... come back 5-0 to go to +1.70 UNITS BABY!!!! And I finally, and I mean finally, put the RIGHT teams in a parlay and hit a five teamer in the afternooners!!! WOOHOOO!!!! Sorry about this morning JT!

 

[RAZ]

Congrats!

 

[Randercity]

well it's time to post my P.O.D.
I've been playing alot of games lately, but when I come off a cold streak and heat up, that's what I do!

Detroit at KANSAS CITY

I personally think the TIGERS are going to kick the living crap outta this team for the BS pulled last nite against their STUD STARTER! AND no one better to do it then MR ATTITUDE himself, MR LIMA. IT'S LIMA TIME BABY and I think he'll pitch a very good game. MY feeling is DETROIT will pound this LEFTY for about six runs by the third and then will work on the BP, which isn't no bargain for KC. LIMA will get cocky and probably give up a couple of dingers, but I still see DETROIT winning this one 9-3.

DETROIT -115
DET OVER 9.5 -115
DET -1.5 +120

 

[Randercity]

Cleveland at TEXAS

Can't guarantee a CLEVELAND victory tonite, but this will be a battle! BOTH teams loaded to the gills with OFFENSE and two struggling starters means only one thing to me, OVER BABY!

CLEVELAND OVER 11.5 -120

 

[Randercity]

here's my late plays and thoughts...

Chicago at SEATTLE

Just so you know, I'm NOT ON SEATTLE tonite. The reason being is ABBOTT and his inability to go more than six innings. He's averaging 6.1 innings a start, which means the BULLPEN will be called upon for 2-3 innings or more depending on the pitch count. That scares me! SEATTLE is a great team so far, and have rarely if ever (I'm not sure)lost three in a row, especially at home. BUT, the two series they have lost this year, were both at SAFECO. They are not playing TBAY here! CWS are in the hunt for the wild card and obviously aren't quitter as seen last nite. I'm going with the OVER. I think SEATTLE will get plenty of runs, I'm just no longer confident the BP can hold it. THE reason ABBOTT is 16-3 or whatever IS THE BULLPEN! If it fails, so does he....

SEATTLE OVER 9.5 EVEN

Toronto at ANAHEIM

ANA UNDER 9 is looking very good... Both pitchers in good form, LOAIZA at 3.26 ERA over last three, ORTIZ 2.57. LOAIZA has only been given more than 4 runs ONCE in last five tries, and with the way TORONTO hits ORTIZ, he can't expect that many. ALSO, last nite, ANGELS DID NOT hit the ball well, just lucky. They dropped in every duck, broken bat quail and such you can think of. YES, they got some good ones, but not the type of hitting to rack up 8 runs. They rarely support ORTIZ with a lot, giving him 4,4,5,6,1 in the last five and he's made them hold up against the likes of the YANKS and BOSTON BOTH ON THE ROAD in his last two. IF TORONTO wins this game, which I doubt, it'll be due to pitching and lack of OFFENSE from the HALOS, but I'm seeing another 4-2 Win for RAMON! Also REMEMBER, if ORTIZ DOES LEAVE< ANA has the best BP in BASEBALL, even after last nite's disaster..

ANAHEIM UNDER 9 -120

New York at OAKLAND

I have to pass... I've been going back and forth on this game, and think there's no real edge. NYY is a very veteran team and WIN when they need to. (see PLAYOFF/W.S. record) THEY NEED to win this game... OAKLAND is on a roll and this is their fifth starter, if they're gonna win, it's here. NYY starters are hurting other than CLEMENS, so they need to show something tonite, and it has to come from HITCHCOCK, their big acquisition from SD. OAKLAND does not hit LEFTIES well, just beat em! They've won 11 of 12 against them, but that's MORE due to their starters than offense. IF NYY can get to the KID HILJUS, they'll quiet the fire in OAKLAND tonite...

PASS

STILL have to pass... NYY may ROLL OAKLAND big time, or OAK may shut them down, no opinion on either side or total.

 

[Randercity]

UN-F***ING REAL?!?!?!?!

I still can't believe this day... start out 0-3 and down -3.65 UNITS, then rip off EIGHT STRAIGHT WINNERS!!!!

YES<<<< CHECK IT OUT, EIGHT STRAIGHT, only to LOSE the NEXT SEVEN!

I end the day like I started almost,
going 8-10 officially and down -3.35 UNITS, but I feel sick... totally and completely sick. I mentioned earlier about being streaky so maybe someone picked up on it and faded the late ones, but holy bat crap, what an emotional rollercoaster of a day... I'm totally spent. Wiped... don't even want to look at lines. OFFICIALLY that's how I ended, but it's not that pretty, believe me. Since I was rolling along, like too many of us are guilty of, I had more on the late ones than the earlier ones, of course, since I just won 8 in a row, how can I lose??? If I split, hey, I'm still way ahead... I'm ahead alright, but there's a DICK in front of it!

To make matters worse, I played NFL preseason tonite too, and actually got to watch a couple of games. Needed RAIDERS late to finish a parlay -3.5 as I bought it down, FINAL 10-7 and they run out the clock inside the 10. THE REAL KICKER was my teaser. Took OAK +3 and SD UNDER 42.5 in a 7 pt teaser for two units! SD game is 14-14 five minutes into the fourth or something, next thing I know while watching RAIDERS, it's 21-17 SF. I'm still fine... SF kicks the FG with about 4 minutes left. SD needs a TD and pt to tie, but more importantly, it's 41 pts, 24-17. SINCE BREES just signed, and TOMLINSON hasn't, all SD has is passing, PERIOD. That's why they sent this game over to begin with, but anyway, SD is 4th and 19 with 1:40 to go and make it inside the five. A couple of INC's get sacked to end up on 4th down and goal. TOUCHDOWN with :36 to go... UNREAL I tell ya... then they go for two and make it and win the game. THEY actually intercepted a pass and ran it in at the end, but the guy got stripped at the goal line and another SD guy got it, so no TD.

Bad ending to a great day, but a really bad night...