no great plays jumping out at me this weekend.
iowa/indiana over (53.5) 2 units. iowa's 55th ranked pass defense will be tested by ben chappell. it'll be tough for iowa to focus on this game. here's their last 4 games - penn st, at michigan, wisconsin, and michigan st. next week they have a revenge game at northwestern. 5 straight matchups in this series have gone over, and 8 of the last 9.
illinois (+3) 2 units. maybe this one is a little too easy. the illini have owned michigan the last two years, winning both games by 25, as a 2-point dog and a 7-point dog. illinois has already won convincingly at happy valley, so they'll hardly be intimidated by the big house. the 3 teams michigan has covered against this year? uconn, notre dame, and bowling green. hardly a murderer's row.
clemson (-3.5) 1 unit. this one really doesn't make any sense. nc st off the big prime time win over fsu. clemson just lost to bc. the road team has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series. and the line moves UP to 3.5? really? well, clemson has won 6 straight over the wolfpack, all by at least 6 points. ok, gimme the tigers for a unit.
ok st (-8.5) 2 units. wow, this line seems high, doesn't it? maybe someone from texas can confirm/deny this, but i have to believe the win at texas had to be one of the biggest wins in baylor history. well, here are the results from baylor's last 5 visits to stillwater:
ok st 34-6
ok st 66-24
ok st 49-21
ok st 63-28
ok st 50-22
ok st/baylor over (73) 1 unit. should be another big 12 shootout.
colorado (-9) 1 unit. insane, laying this many points with colorado at home, much less on the road. but it didn't take long for turner gill to kill this kansas football program. here is their margin of defeat in 4 conference games: 12, 35, 52, & 48. the 35 & 52 were at home. sure, texas a&m and kansas st are better than colorado, but not THAT much better.
utah (+5) 2 units. what a game. in the 5 games between these two teams in the MWC, the home team has won and covered 4. this is more of a gut feel though. i see this game coming down to a field goal.
tcu/utah under (51) 2 units. is this the easiest total ever? it seems way too easy, which is what's keeping it a 2-unit play. maybe the game will go over in 3 OTs. i just see this game being something like 9-6. both teams need to run the ball to set up the pass (pretty fundamental stuff, i know). both teams' rush defense are in the top 14 in the country. there's so much on the line in this game, it's going to be a slugfest.
la tech (-2) 2 units. wow, this line has moved. la tech has covered 6 straight against fresno. the last time fresno covered a game was september 19th.
stanford (-8) 1 unit. i'm going to say this is a fairly big game, since the winner is in the driver's seat for the rose bowl (assuming oregon doesn't lose). and the stoops brothers have a terrible record in big games.
arizona st (+5) 2 units. this might be my favorite play today. for one thing, usc is 1-3 ATS at home this year. and i'm sure the sun devils have been waiting anxiously for another shot at the trojans after last year. usc won 14-9. one of those tds was a 55-yd int return (aka a TAINT - touchdown after INT). az st had 11 more first downs than usc, 90 more yards of offense, and a 6-minute edge in time of possession. they were doomed by 4 turnovers. i expect the sun devils to get some revenge today.
iowa/indiana over (53.5) 2 units. iowa's 55th ranked pass defense will be tested by ben chappell. it'll be tough for iowa to focus on this game. here's their last 4 games - penn st, at michigan, wisconsin, and michigan st. next week they have a revenge game at northwestern. 5 straight matchups in this series have gone over, and 8 of the last 9.
illinois (+3) 2 units. maybe this one is a little too easy. the illini have owned michigan the last two years, winning both games by 25, as a 2-point dog and a 7-point dog. illinois has already won convincingly at happy valley, so they'll hardly be intimidated by the big house. the 3 teams michigan has covered against this year? uconn, notre dame, and bowling green. hardly a murderer's row.
clemson (-3.5) 1 unit. this one really doesn't make any sense. nc st off the big prime time win over fsu. clemson just lost to bc. the road team has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series. and the line moves UP to 3.5? really? well, clemson has won 6 straight over the wolfpack, all by at least 6 points. ok, gimme the tigers for a unit.
ok st (-8.5) 2 units. wow, this line seems high, doesn't it? maybe someone from texas can confirm/deny this, but i have to believe the win at texas had to be one of the biggest wins in baylor history. well, here are the results from baylor's last 5 visits to stillwater:
ok st 34-6
ok st 66-24
ok st 49-21
ok st 63-28
ok st 50-22
ok st/baylor over (73) 1 unit. should be another big 12 shootout.
colorado (-9) 1 unit. insane, laying this many points with colorado at home, much less on the road. but it didn't take long for turner gill to kill this kansas football program. here is their margin of defeat in 4 conference games: 12, 35, 52, & 48. the 35 & 52 were at home. sure, texas a&m and kansas st are better than colorado, but not THAT much better.
utah (+5) 2 units. what a game. in the 5 games between these two teams in the MWC, the home team has won and covered 4. this is more of a gut feel though. i see this game coming down to a field goal.
tcu/utah under (51) 2 units. is this the easiest total ever? it seems way too easy, which is what's keeping it a 2-unit play. maybe the game will go over in 3 OTs. i just see this game being something like 9-6. both teams need to run the ball to set up the pass (pretty fundamental stuff, i know). both teams' rush defense are in the top 14 in the country. there's so much on the line in this game, it's going to be a slugfest.
la tech (-2) 2 units. wow, this line has moved. la tech has covered 6 straight against fresno. the last time fresno covered a game was september 19th.
stanford (-8) 1 unit. i'm going to say this is a fairly big game, since the winner is in the driver's seat for the rose bowl (assuming oregon doesn't lose). and the stoops brothers have a terrible record in big games.
arizona st (+5) 2 units. this might be my favorite play today. for one thing, usc is 1-3 ATS at home this year. and i'm sure the sun devils have been waiting anxiously for another shot at the trojans after last year. usc won 14-9. one of those tds was a 55-yd int return (aka a TAINT - touchdown after INT). az st had 11 more first downs than usc, 90 more yards of offense, and a 6-minute edge in time of possession. they were doomed by 4 turnovers. i expect the sun devils to get some revenge today.
