fun fact - according to espn.com, lsu has 18 players on their roster who wear #0.
florida (+13.5) 1 unit. you have to go back to at least 1999 for the last time lsu covered a home game against florida. yes, i know florida's qb situation is... less than desirable. but the return of jefferson is only going to make lsu's qb situation worse, as now two guys are getting reps in practice. this is going to lead to inconsistent play from both, and florida's defense is good enough to keep them in the game.
ku/ok st over (73.5) 3 units. this may be the biggest total i'll play this year. i'll start with the obvious - ok st is going to score a lot of points and they can't stop anyone. duh. webb is a good enough qb to put up some points once they start throwing the ball all over the field because they're down 3 or 4 TDs. duh. but why i love this is the spot in the schedule for ok st. they're coming off the huge comeback win over a&m. their next 5 games are against texas, missouri, baylor, k st, and texas tech. they beat kansas by 34 last year. as porous as their defense is on a good day, i don't see them being very focused on this game today.
oregon st (+1.5) 1 unit. sure, i know the beavers are godawful bad this year (kinda came out of nowhere, didnt' it?). but i think this will be the low point of arizona's season. they still haven't beaten a div 1A team this year, and they're favored on the road. just on principle alone, i gotta take the beavers.
penn st (-4.5) 2 units. this is insane. iowa has owned psu, winning and covering 6 of the last 7. psu has shown no signs whatsoever of being able to beat a solid team. psu is 0-5 ATS this year. so why the hell is the line going up? who in their right mind is driving that? it sure ain't any of us.
k st (+4) 1 unit. this may be the only time i'll take a ranked home dog getting points from an unranked team. there are red flags everywhere when that happens. but i think it's a case of k st continuing to get no respect. and i simply don't think missouri is very good. last year, k st turned the ball over 4 times and still only lost by 10 at missouri, and missouri was a lot better last year. i think they get their second straight revenge win.
va tech (-7.5) 2 units. the hokies have owned the 'canes, covering 5 straight and 9 of the last 10. their defense is good enough to shut down the run and force harris into some mistakes. well, you don't have to force him into mistakes; he'll make 'em on his own. on the other side of the ball, miami is allowing 5 yards per rush. wow. david wilson should have a big game and the hokies will pull away with a solid win.
FAU (+3.5) 2 units. i'm getting points from north texas? sign me up. the road team has covered 6 of 7 in this series and FAU is 4-0 SU and ATS at the mean green.
san jose st (+13.5) 3 units. since their blowout loss at stanford to start the season, the spartans have been competitive. and byu has been pretty bad. and look at their schedule leading to this game:
1-point win at mississippi
1-point loss at texas
blowout loss to utah
a win over UCF where they were slightly less sloppy than the knights
a 3-point comeback revenge win over utah st
what can they possibly have left in the tank for san jose? this is a much bigger game for san jose. i might even take a small shot on the money line.
florida (+13.5) 1 unit. you have to go back to at least 1999 for the last time lsu covered a home game against florida. yes, i know florida's qb situation is... less than desirable. but the return of jefferson is only going to make lsu's qb situation worse, as now two guys are getting reps in practice. this is going to lead to inconsistent play from both, and florida's defense is good enough to keep them in the game.
ku/ok st over (73.5) 3 units. this may be the biggest total i'll play this year. i'll start with the obvious - ok st is going to score a lot of points and they can't stop anyone. duh. webb is a good enough qb to put up some points once they start throwing the ball all over the field because they're down 3 or 4 TDs. duh. but why i love this is the spot in the schedule for ok st. they're coming off the huge comeback win over a&m. their next 5 games are against texas, missouri, baylor, k st, and texas tech. they beat kansas by 34 last year. as porous as their defense is on a good day, i don't see them being very focused on this game today.
oregon st (+1.5) 1 unit. sure, i know the beavers are godawful bad this year (kinda came out of nowhere, didnt' it?). but i think this will be the low point of arizona's season. they still haven't beaten a div 1A team this year, and they're favored on the road. just on principle alone, i gotta take the beavers.
penn st (-4.5) 2 units. this is insane. iowa has owned psu, winning and covering 6 of the last 7. psu has shown no signs whatsoever of being able to beat a solid team. psu is 0-5 ATS this year. so why the hell is the line going up? who in their right mind is driving that? it sure ain't any of us.
k st (+4) 1 unit. this may be the only time i'll take a ranked home dog getting points from an unranked team. there are red flags everywhere when that happens. but i think it's a case of k st continuing to get no respect. and i simply don't think missouri is very good. last year, k st turned the ball over 4 times and still only lost by 10 at missouri, and missouri was a lot better last year. i think they get their second straight revenge win.
va tech (-7.5) 2 units. the hokies have owned the 'canes, covering 5 straight and 9 of the last 10. their defense is good enough to shut down the run and force harris into some mistakes. well, you don't have to force him into mistakes; he'll make 'em on his own. on the other side of the ball, miami is allowing 5 yards per rush. wow. david wilson should have a big game and the hokies will pull away with a solid win.
FAU (+3.5) 2 units. i'm getting points from north texas? sign me up. the road team has covered 6 of 7 in this series and FAU is 4-0 SU and ATS at the mean green.
san jose st (+13.5) 3 units. since their blowout loss at stanford to start the season, the spartans have been competitive. and byu has been pretty bad. and look at their schedule leading to this game:
1-point win at mississippi
1-point loss at texas
blowout loss to utah
a win over UCF where they were slightly less sloppy than the knights
a 3-point comeback revenge win over utah st
what can they possibly have left in the tank for san jose? this is a much bigger game for san jose. i might even take a small shot on the money line.
