running very late this morning. been spending the last 2 days working on the breeders cup.
texas (-14) 2 units. this line is insane, right? just begging for tech money. here's the teams texas has beat this year:
kansas
iowa st
ucla
byu
rice
and they're laying 2 tds to tech? after the line opened at 9??? i smell a rat.
louisville (+13) 2 units. louisville's d has been very impressive. the most points they've given up this year is 25, to cincinnati. wvu may be looking ahead to cincinnati and pittsburgh. the road team has covered 4 straight meetings.
troy/navy over (59.5) 3 units. maybe this one is too easy. two teams in the middle of disappointing seasons. how much defensive focus will there be in this game? especially from troy. they've gone to bowl games the last 3 years, but the wheels just fell off in conference this year, topped off by an OT loss in their last game. and now they have to face an option offense? yeah, i'm sure those defensive linemen are really looking forward to getting cut block all day today. here's the total points in navy's home games this year:
73
98
69
they also scored 40 against delaware, but i'm really not counting that game.
wku (+3) 1 unit. how 'bout those hilltoppers? where the hell did this come from? they've won 4 straight games and covered 5 straight. FIU is going the opposite direction. since beating ucf (had to be a big win for this team), they've dropped 5 straight ATS. obviously the key for wku is extablishing rainey, who's been an absolute workhorse the last 4 games, getting at least 30 carries and 100 yards in each of those games. FIU's run defense has been decent, but i'll take the hot team getting a fg at home.
pitt (+3) 1 unit. the loss of graham obviously hurts, but pitt has covered 4 out of 5 against cincinnati, with the only ATS loss coming by one point in 2008.
baylor (-3) 3 units. it's almost impossible to take the bears after their performance last weekend, but somehow this line is creeping up. ok, i'll go along for the ride.
arkansas (-5) 1 unit. this line seems a couple points high, considering the hogs barely beat vandy and mississippi their last 2 games and this is #10 vs #8 in the country. so i'll lay the extra points. the gamecocks' offense is really struggling without lattimore (no surprise), scoring 14 points the last two games. and this is their 3rd straight road game. the better play on this game might be....
usc/ak under (51.5) 2 units. again, sc's offense is struggling and their defense has been VERY good against the pass. it's going to be tough for both teams to move the ball.
alabama (-4.5) 2 units. nothing i can really say here than hasn't been said. i think the only advantage lsu has is at the qb position, with two guys who have made plays in big games before. but i haven't seen much of mccarron and it's certainly a huge plus for him to be playing at home today. as much as i despise nick saban, alabama has a huge edge in coaching. what it comes down to for me is this line. #2 laying anything more than a fg to #1 seems like it's really begging for lsu money.
texas (-14) 2 units. this line is insane, right? just begging for tech money. here's the teams texas has beat this year:
kansas
iowa st
ucla
byu
rice
and they're laying 2 tds to tech? after the line opened at 9??? i smell a rat.
louisville (+13) 2 units. louisville's d has been very impressive. the most points they've given up this year is 25, to cincinnati. wvu may be looking ahead to cincinnati and pittsburgh. the road team has covered 4 straight meetings.
troy/navy over (59.5) 3 units. maybe this one is too easy. two teams in the middle of disappointing seasons. how much defensive focus will there be in this game? especially from troy. they've gone to bowl games the last 3 years, but the wheels just fell off in conference this year, topped off by an OT loss in their last game. and now they have to face an option offense? yeah, i'm sure those defensive linemen are really looking forward to getting cut block all day today. here's the total points in navy's home games this year:
73
98
69
they also scored 40 against delaware, but i'm really not counting that game.
wku (+3) 1 unit. how 'bout those hilltoppers? where the hell did this come from? they've won 4 straight games and covered 5 straight. FIU is going the opposite direction. since beating ucf (had to be a big win for this team), they've dropped 5 straight ATS. obviously the key for wku is extablishing rainey, who's been an absolute workhorse the last 4 games, getting at least 30 carries and 100 yards in each of those games. FIU's run defense has been decent, but i'll take the hot team getting a fg at home.
pitt (+3) 1 unit. the loss of graham obviously hurts, but pitt has covered 4 out of 5 against cincinnati, with the only ATS loss coming by one point in 2008.
baylor (-3) 3 units. it's almost impossible to take the bears after their performance last weekend, but somehow this line is creeping up. ok, i'll go along for the ride.
arkansas (-5) 1 unit. this line seems a couple points high, considering the hogs barely beat vandy and mississippi their last 2 games and this is #10 vs #8 in the country. so i'll lay the extra points. the gamecocks' offense is really struggling without lattimore (no surprise), scoring 14 points the last two games. and this is their 3rd straight road game. the better play on this game might be....
usc/ak under (51.5) 2 units. again, sc's offense is struggling and their defense has been VERY good against the pass. it's going to be tough for both teams to move the ball.
alabama (-4.5) 2 units. nothing i can really say here than hasn't been said. i think the only advantage lsu has is at the qb position, with two guys who have made plays in big games before. but i haven't seen much of mccarron and it's certainly a huge plus for him to be playing at home today. as much as i despise nick saban, alabama has a huge edge in coaching. what it comes down to for me is this line. #2 laying anything more than a fg to #1 seems like it's really begging for lsu money.
