hard to tell that i don't like this card, since i managed to find 11 plays. but i really don't.
uconn (-1) 2 units. tough loss for louisville last week, coming off the huge win at wvu. they are a young team led by a freshman qb, and it's going to be very difficult for them to regroup this week against a mediocre uconn team, especially with a nationally televised game next friday against a USF team they lost to in OT last year. i have to believe louisville has been waiting for the rematch against USF (they blew a 14-3 lead, and had the ball at the 4 in OT, but got stopped when they went fo the TD instead of kicking the FG) and will overlook a team they beat 26-0 last year. the home team has covered 5 of 6 in this matchup, including all 3 at uconn.
nebraska (+3.5) 2 units. under brady hoke, michigan seems to be avoiding their traditional second half collapse. but a close look at their win over illinois shows some interesting things. most important to me, after the 2nd play of the game, when a 65-yard run led to their first score, their longest scoring drive of the day was 41 yards. that's right, after breaking off one huge run, they didn't score unless they started in illinois territory. it's not going to get any easier to drive the ball against nebraska.
georgia (-31) 1 unit. it's insane to lay this many points in the sec, but georgia is a covering machine right now, covering 6 of their last 7. here's a look at uk's 3 road games this year:
L by 30 at vandy
L by 51 at s. carolina
L by 28 at LSU (they actually covered this game)
ohio st (-6.5) 1 unit. tough one for me, obviously, but after all the emotions of last week, how does penn state regroup and get ready to play this game? it's probably insane, but i also like the over.
oregon st (+2) 3 units. who could possibly bet oregon st in this game, right? they are absolutely terrible (how did that happen so fast?). but the line has inexplicably dropped. maybe because oregon st has covered 7 straight against washington. maybe the huskies have their tails between their legs after getting crushed in 3 of their last 4 games.
san jose (+6) 1 unit. the spartans are 6-1 ATS as a dog this year. but i think the best play in this game is....
navy/sjst over (61) 2 units. san jose can't stop the run, but they've been scoring a lot of points lately, and that should continue against navy.
oklahoma (-15.5) 1 unit. maybe this one is too easy. the road team has covered 9 of 10 in this matchup, with the only home cover being in 2004, when ok beat baylor 35-0, laying 36. baylor's 2 conference games as a dog this year, they lost by 35 and 27.
k st (+7.5) 1 unit. yet another crazy line on a k st game. i know i sound like a broken record, but the oddsmakers have undervalued k st all season. and other than a 2nd half meltdown against ok, they have covered every game.
k st/texas under (54) 2 units. maybe this total is an overreaction to texas' game against missouri, but it seems to be just BEGGING for you to play the over.
fresno (+4.5) 1 unit. i hate playing against a team in their first game with a back-up qb. but hawaii wasn't playing that great with moniz. the road team has covered 6 straight in this matchup.
uconn (-1) 2 units. tough loss for louisville last week, coming off the huge win at wvu. they are a young team led by a freshman qb, and it's going to be very difficult for them to regroup this week against a mediocre uconn team, especially with a nationally televised game next friday against a USF team they lost to in OT last year. i have to believe louisville has been waiting for the rematch against USF (they blew a 14-3 lead, and had the ball at the 4 in OT, but got stopped when they went fo the TD instead of kicking the FG) and will overlook a team they beat 26-0 last year. the home team has covered 5 of 6 in this matchup, including all 3 at uconn.
nebraska (+3.5) 2 units. under brady hoke, michigan seems to be avoiding their traditional second half collapse. but a close look at their win over illinois shows some interesting things. most important to me, after the 2nd play of the game, when a 65-yard run led to their first score, their longest scoring drive of the day was 41 yards. that's right, after breaking off one huge run, they didn't score unless they started in illinois territory. it's not going to get any easier to drive the ball against nebraska.
georgia (-31) 1 unit. it's insane to lay this many points in the sec, but georgia is a covering machine right now, covering 6 of their last 7. here's a look at uk's 3 road games this year:
L by 30 at vandy
L by 51 at s. carolina
L by 28 at LSU (they actually covered this game)
ohio st (-6.5) 1 unit. tough one for me, obviously, but after all the emotions of last week, how does penn state regroup and get ready to play this game? it's probably insane, but i also like the over.
oregon st (+2) 3 units. who could possibly bet oregon st in this game, right? they are absolutely terrible (how did that happen so fast?). but the line has inexplicably dropped. maybe because oregon st has covered 7 straight against washington. maybe the huskies have their tails between their legs after getting crushed in 3 of their last 4 games.
san jose (+6) 1 unit. the spartans are 6-1 ATS as a dog this year. but i think the best play in this game is....
navy/sjst over (61) 2 units. san jose can't stop the run, but they've been scoring a lot of points lately, and that should continue against navy.
oklahoma (-15.5) 1 unit. maybe this one is too easy. the road team has covered 9 of 10 in this matchup, with the only home cover being in 2004, when ok beat baylor 35-0, laying 36. baylor's 2 conference games as a dog this year, they lost by 35 and 27.
k st (+7.5) 1 unit. yet another crazy line on a k st game. i know i sound like a broken record, but the oddsmakers have undervalued k st all season. and other than a 2nd half meltdown against ok, they have covered every game.
k st/texas under (54) 2 units. maybe this total is an overreaction to texas' game against missouri, but it seems to be just BEGGING for you to play the over.
fresno (+4.5) 1 unit. i hate playing against a team in their first game with a back-up qb. but hawaii wasn't playing that great with moniz. the road team has covered 6 straight in this matchup.
