southern miss (+13) 2 units. i'd be happy with houston winning this game, so i can make some cash playing against them in a bcs bowl (hawaii a few years ago?). but i like southern mississippi's chances today. they only give up 6.03 yards per pass attempt, which is 10th in the country. in fact, houston has only played one team this year with a defense ranked in the top 57 in pass effficiency. that was la tech, back in september, and houston trailed 34-7 last in the 3rd quarter before rallying to win by one point. so the only semi-decent pass defense they have faced held them to 7 points for the first 40 minutes of the game. obviously i don't expect a repeat of that today, but this will be the best pass defense houston has seen this year. another factor is the pressure on houston. if they go to a bcs bowl game, every school in conference usa gets $1.5M.
side note on kansas st - this is only the 3rd game this year that they'll be favored (yeah, i'm not counting the game against eastern kentucky). i'd be willing to bet this is the first time in a long time (if ever) a team was ranked most of the season, went 10-2 or 9-3, and was only favored in 3 games. if not for a rough second half against oklahoma, this team would be 10-0 ATS.
lsu (-13) 1 unit. the only times lsu hasn't covered this year was when they were favored by over 40. if murray has the game of his life, the bulldogs might be able to hang around, but he's been too inconsistent to expect that.
virginia tech (-7) 1 unit. this one might be a little too easy. clemson is in freefall at this point, and va tech has to be looking forward to payback for their only loss of the season.
michigan st (+9.5) 2 units. another one that may be a little too easy, but i'm taking the bait. wisconsin has not covered a game outside of madison this season.
side note on kansas st - this is only the 3rd game this year that they'll be favored (yeah, i'm not counting the game against eastern kentucky). i'd be willing to bet this is the first time in a long time (if ever) a team was ranked most of the season, went 10-2 or 9-3, and was only favored in 3 games. if not for a rough second half against oklahoma, this team would be 10-0 ATS.
lsu (-13) 1 unit. the only times lsu hasn't covered this year was when they were favored by over 40. if murray has the game of his life, the bulldogs might be able to hang around, but he's been too inconsistent to expect that.
virginia tech (-7) 1 unit. this one might be a little too easy. clemson is in freefall at this point, and va tech has to be looking forward to payback for their only loss of the season.
michigan st (+9.5) 2 units. another one that may be a little too easy, but i'm taking the bait. wisconsin has not covered a game outside of madison this season.
