Saturday $$$

[Spock]

After a roller coaster yesterday in which I made some bad calls have decided to keep one of the lines from the movie
"Wall Street" in mind

Lou to Bud Fox : Stick with the fundamentals. That is how IBM and Hilton were built

well goin back to fundamentals here is what I am playing today.

1. Atlanta ML

2. Baltimore ML

3. Mets ML

4. Minny ML

5. Montreal @ Florida Over 9
(The edit is for adding this game. The line just jumped to 9.5)

Am lookin @ the following games :

Cubs ML
Montreal @ Florida Over 9
Colorado -1.5

Boston looks like a good dog. Not yet sure if i will play it.
Will try to post my reasonings soon.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

1. Atlanta @ Philly

Atlanta seems to be on track agains after a minor hiccup in which they lost 3 games in a row. This team seems very focussed and wants to win. When their key players dont perform,
the other players step in and get the win.

Atlanta plays RHP very well. They hold a record of 55 - 30 against RHP
Philly on the other hand has a record of 38 - 39 against RHP

Lots of angles in this one .. will just mention a few


Marquis has 5 quality starts in 6 started on the road. Team record is 3 - 3.
has an ERA of 4.54 on the road and a whip of 1.33
has a 2.39 walks per 9 innings pitched ..


Adams has got hit hard in his last 3 games. Has only 5 quality starts in 9 starts at home.
Team record is 5 - 4. Has an ERA of 4.89 at home but very high ERA in last 3 games.
whip of 1.45 but walks 4.17 per nine innings pitched. This may result in runs for Atlanta as they have good baserunners.

I think the edge here is with Atlanta.
for those who follow this stat

In day games Atlanta is 19 - 8
In day games Philly is 11 - 16

In road games Atlanta is 28 - 18
In home games Philly is 26 - 23

In games played on Saturday Atlanta is 7 - 8
In games played on Saturday Philly is 5 - 10

In July games Atlanta is 10 - 5
In July games Philly is 8 - 7


Final Score : Atlanta 7 Philly 3

 

[Rummel]

Spock,

Why not try Toronto -1.5 today? TB with a new pitcher whom I don?t even are known of (I?m from Sweden so maybe that explaines some ). I belive Toronto will win this big today to with atleast 3 runs and maybe even more. I also think over is a good choice but don?t know if TB will score enough runs to make it over 9.5 runs.

What do you other guys say?

GL with your picks today Spock! Belive there will be some more luck today

// Rummel

 

[Spock]

White Sox @ Baltimore

White Sox are 3 - 7 in their last 10.
Baltimore are 5 - 5 in their last 10.

White Sox in road games have a record of 19 - 32
In night games Sox are 28 - 34
Vs. RHP are 35 - 39


Baltimore are an unimpressive 23 - 23 when playing at home.
But in night games they are 35 - 30
Vs RHP are 35 - 31

Baltimore bull pen again showed it was effective yesterday.
White Sox bull pen on the other hand has a much higher ERA. After the early departure of White Sox starter if Glover does not go very far there will be pressure on the bull pen and they may give up a lot of runs.

Coming to the pitchers

Glover has only 2 quality starts in his 6 starts on the road.
His record is 1 - 3 and his team is 2 - 4 in these 6 starts.
Has a very high ERA of 6.92 on the road with a Whip of 1.65
walks 4.85 in 9 innings pitched. This is a high number and this may spell trouble for the Sox as Baltimore has excellent base running.
Recieves run support of 4.17 runs .. but in his last 7 he is getting run support of only 3 runs and he along with the team has gone 2- 5 duering last 7 games ..
White Sox offence going down the drain
Current streak he has lost 2 in a row.
not last more than 5 innings I think in last 5 starts.


Ponson has an overall record of 4 - 4 but his team win loss record is
12 - 6 in his 19 starts. Ata home he has 7 quality starts out of 10 and has a 2 - 2 record. Team record when he starts at home is 6 - 4
Has won a current streak of winning 2 games.
Has won his last game at home.

In last 7 games he has gone 1 - 1 while team has gone 5 - 2
ERA at home is 4.53
walks 3.47 every 9 innings pitched.
Recieves a run support of 5.60

In last 7 games he has been gettin support of 5.14 runs and has a personal ERA of 3.23 .. been pitching much better recently.


Two teams headin in opposite direction. Baltimore has won 4 in a row at home and their offence is clicking. White Sox on the other hand are struggling. The manager is gonna make changes and in this kind of environment in the locker room and dug out where u dont know what is going to happen I think the edge is with the team which has been winning , hitting well and pitching well.


The home team is 8 - 6 when J West is at HP.
(edit is as i had record as 8 - 7 by mistake)

Final Score : Baltimore 8 White Sox 3

 

[Spock]

Hi Rummel ..

how ya doing ? Have never been to Sweden but will be there some day at least for a visit

Tryin to gather more info about the Tampa Bay pitcher.
Parris has pitched well in his last 2-3 starts. Has gone 7 innings and that is a good sign.

If there are good plays elsewhere will pass. Regarding the Under not sure because no idea about the other pitcher again. Also these two teams tend to have a lot of errors which lead to more runs.

Be back with views on that game.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Rummel]

Hey Spock!

I?m planing to go to the USA/Canada within 3 years. Mostly planing to go see Vegas ofcourse but also other parts of the countries

Will be checking in here later on to see if you have found out something. I don?t even have the posibility to see the games from Sweden. I can see one game every week (the channel with the rights only shows one game per week

Anyway, good luck today and hope for some big $$$ today!

// Rummel

 

[Spock]

Mets @ Cincinnati

NYM are 5 - 1 in their last 6 overall.
Cards are 4 -2 in their last 6 overall.
Mets had a good win yesterday.


Mets have been playing well recently and their offence has certainly picked up.


CIN is 1-8 in Reitsma's last nine starts.
Reitsma has 5 quality starts in 9 starts at home and 12 out of 18 overall.
Over all he has a record of 4 - 7 while his team record is 8 - 10
At home in 9 starts Reitsma is 2 - 4 while team record is 4 - 5
ERA at home is 3.21 with a Whip of 1.41
Recives a run support of 3.44 runs
In last 7 starts overall his record is 1 - 5 while the team record is
1 - 6
In last 7 games his ERA has gone up to 3.77 while he has had run support of only 2.43 runs
The only win in last 7 games came against Milwaukee.
He has lost 4 in a row at home.



Bacsik has started 2 games and has won both. Both were against Florida .
Has an overall ERA of 3.21 and an ERA of 3.60 at home.
Walks a lot @ 5.40 per 9 innings pitched which is not good for the MEts.
Has recieved overall run support of 6.50 runs and run support of
5.00 on the road.

I am paying importance to the batting % of both teams.
Cincy has not faced a lot of LHP going 9 - 11
Mets vs RHP are 34 - 36

Since 97 Mets are 12 - 8 vs Cinci (@ Cincy)

In last 10 games Mets are batting 0.336 against RHP
In last 10 games Cincy are batting 0.215 against LHP


for the season
Mets are battin 0.269 vs RHP
Cincy are battin 0.239 vs LHP


I think there is good value in this play.

Good luck
Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

Minny @ Detroit

I think the edge here is defi with Minny.

Minny is 7 - 2 in their last 9 overall
Detroit is 1 - 5 in their last 6 overall

The Tigers are 5 - 13 in game two of a series after a loss.

In July games Minny is 10 - 5
In July games Detroit is 8 - 7

In games played on grass field Minny is 18 - 19
In games played on grass field Detroit is 34 - 51

In road games Minny is 24 - 23 but are 3 - 1 in last 4 on the road .. the only loss coming @ Seattle
In home games Detroit is 21 - 24

In night games Minny is 41 - 27
In night games Detroit is 24 - 39

Against RHP Minny is 43 - 22
Against RHP Detroit is 28 - 46

This is key .. Minny plays RHP well while Detroit does not.

When playing on Saturday Minny is 9 - 6
When playing on Saturday Detroit is 5 - 11

When playing against a team with a losing record Minny is 33 - 20
When playing against a team with a winning record Detroit is 13 - 25

Minny is averaging 5.5 runs against RHP
Detroit is averaging 4 runs against RHP

Minny Bull pen: Overall ERA is 3.49 while on road it is a low 2.93
Detroit Bull pen: Overall ERA is 5.15 while at home it is 4.03

Now to come to the pitchers:

Bernero has started 10 games overall with a record of 2 - 5 while team record is 3 - 7 with an ERA of 6.03
In 4 starts at home his record is 1 - 3 (same as team record) with an ERA of 7.83
In last 7 games his record is 1 - 3 while team record is 2 - 5 with an ERA of 5.57


Overall Bernero has recieved run support of 4.70 runs. This dries up to 3.0 runs when he pitches at home. In last 7 games this has increased to 5.14 runs.

At home Bernero walks 3.91 per 9 innings pitched



Mays has started 3 games and has record of 0 - 2 while team record is
1 - 2
Has started 2 games away and has lost both going 0 - 2
Out of these two losses : first was at Toronto where he was facing Toronto's best pitcher in Roy Halladay.
the second loss was in Cleveland to Finley. (finley is left hand pitcher)

His only win this year was against Detroit at home Vs. Sparks.

Has very high ERA of 11.57 overall and 12.15 on the road.
Walks a lot of people .. ridiculous 6.75 per 9 innings pitched.

Run Support: Recieves run support of 6.33 runs overall but has recieved support of only 3 runs on the road.
Against Halladay Minny just could not score and lost 7 - 2
Against Finley they lost 4 - 5 (Note that Finley is a LHP)


MAYS is 7-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.004.
His team's record is 9-3 in these starts.

BERNERO is 0-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 0-1 in these starts.

Overall Minny is batting 0.289 against RHP
Overall Detroit is batting 0.252 against RHP

In last 10 games Minny is batting 0.272 against RHP
In last 10 games Detroit is batting 0.228 against RHP

Point to note: Mays is coming back and has not pitched in 3 months. He was all star in 2001 and was a 17 game winner in 2001. So he is strong mentally and can focus. Hopefully he can come back and pitch well.


Final Score : Minny 6 Detroit 3

Cheers and Good luck
Spock

 

[Spock]

Montreal @ Florida Over 9

Montreal got shut down for only 2 runs yesterday. They will come out ready to swing their bats especially with Atlanta and Mets winning yesterday.

Some points:

Montreal as a team is 7 - 2 - 1 Over-Under
Florida is 7 - 3 Over-Under

The wind is blowing at 7 mph.
When wind is betn 0-10 mph the Over is 12-5

Both teams are averaging 4.8 runs against RHP

Montreal in July games is 10-4 Over-Under
Florida in July games is 9-5 OVer-Under

This season Overall Montreal has a 52-38 Over-Under record
This season Overall Florida has a 54-41 Over-Under record

Against RHP Montreal is 43-25 Over-Under
Against RHP Florida is 42-26 OVer-Under

When playing against a team with a losing record the Over-Under for Montreal is 29-19

When playing against a team with a winning record the Over-Under for Florida is 23-12

When playing on Saturday Montreal is 8-5 Over-Under
When playing on Saturday Florida is 9-6 Over-Under

In night games Montreal is 37-28 Over-Under
In nigh games Florida is 35-30 Over-Under


Coming to the pitchers:

Yoshii is 6-2-1 Over-Under
Penny is 9-2 Over-Under

Last few starts Penny has been bombed.

Yoshii has an overall ERA of 3.99.
Penny has an ERA of 6.08

Yoshii has been stingy at giving up runs in last few starts
Penny on the other hand gave up 8 ER in 4.1 innings of work

The Umpire here is G. Cederstrom.

His stats for this year.

For 21 games that he has been Ump at HP he has a record of 16-4-1 Over-Under

When the pitching match up is RHP Vs RHP the record is 11-2-1 Over-Under

Averages 11.76 runs per game.


I think this will be a high scoring game with around 13- 14 runs scored.


Cheers and good luck
Spock

 

[Spock]

Adding a small parlay :

Cubs ML
Boston Under 9.5

$20 -- > $49.18

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[g0d1am]

Glad to see that we are on the same plays today Spock.

 

[Spock]

good luck god ..

Adding :

Cleveland @ Kansas Over 10 Game 2

Arizona @ San Diego Over 8.5

Cheers !!!
Spock