I say the same thing every year, but the season just flew by.
rice (+6.5) 2 units. getting another crack at marshall will have the owls fired up. talk about unfinished business. last year, rice scored 10 points in the last 4 minutes to take marshall to OT, before losing in double OT. and on their last drive they had 1st and goal at the 2 before having to settle for a FG as they ran out of time.
after years as a doormat, last year rice made a bowl game. and now they are playing for a conference championship. their 23 seniors will make sure the team is ready to play today.
assuming this game is close, I like rice's chances even more. marshall has only played 3 games decided by 8 points or less, and they are 1-2 in those game. on the other hand, rice is 5-1 in such games. might be worth a shot on the money line.
Memphis (-1) 3 units. I hate when I say things like this, but I love Memphis today. it may not show in their record, but the tigers have improved a lot this year. their defense has been very solid and kept them in a lot of games. they have covered 3 of their 4 road games, with the only loss at Houston. and the tigers actually were the better team statistically speaking in that game. they had 5 more first downs, 100 more yards of offense, and an 11-minute edge in ToP. (but they lost 4 fumbles. oops.) they are allowing 19 points/game on the road, and that includes games at Houston and Louisville. today they face the 116th ranked scoring offense in the country. I think this is a team that will be very motivated to finish the season strong. UConn, on the other hand, probably wishes last week was the end of the season. a nice revenge win over Rutgers gave them their first home win. I don't know that they'll get up for one more week to play Memphis. even if they are ready to play, I think Memphis will get a solid win.
Missouri (pk) 2 units. it's hard to expect a letdown in the sec championship game, but how does auburn regain their focus after last week? huge win over their archrival and they are suddenly in the discussion for the nc game. I think the difference will be in the running game. auburn still got carved up on the ground last week (218 yards on 35 carries). mizzou can do the same. now I just need james franklin to play mistake-free football.....
south florida (ML) 2 units to win 3. Rutgers clearly packed it in after the Louisville game. they haven't covered a game since then (5 straight). USF is still playing hard. they are 4-0 ATS on the road, and they won the only road game they were getting less than 18 points.
Arizona st (-3) 2 units. let me get this straight.... Stanford already beat the sun devils by 14, az st couldn't run the ball that game, now grice is out and the sun devils are favored to win? well, that makes no sense at all. take a little closer look at that first matchup. az st was coming off that "win" over Wisconsin. they may not have been ready to play the cardinal. in fact, here's the quote from graham:
"They're a championship caliber team, and we weren't ready," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. "I apologized to the players for not having them ready. Stanford was better prepared."
Stanford was up 29-0 at halftime and 39-7 after 3. but the sun devils finally got going, outscoring stanford 21-3 in the 4th. and the FG came with 30 seconds left. so az st has that to build on today. I think they'll be prepared for this game right from the start.
rice (+6.5) 2 units. getting another crack at marshall will have the owls fired up. talk about unfinished business. last year, rice scored 10 points in the last 4 minutes to take marshall to OT, before losing in double OT. and on their last drive they had 1st and goal at the 2 before having to settle for a FG as they ran out of time.
after years as a doormat, last year rice made a bowl game. and now they are playing for a conference championship. their 23 seniors will make sure the team is ready to play today.
assuming this game is close, I like rice's chances even more. marshall has only played 3 games decided by 8 points or less, and they are 1-2 in those game. on the other hand, rice is 5-1 in such games. might be worth a shot on the money line.
Memphis (-1) 3 units. I hate when I say things like this, but I love Memphis today. it may not show in their record, but the tigers have improved a lot this year. their defense has been very solid and kept them in a lot of games. they have covered 3 of their 4 road games, with the only loss at Houston. and the tigers actually were the better team statistically speaking in that game. they had 5 more first downs, 100 more yards of offense, and an 11-minute edge in ToP. (but they lost 4 fumbles. oops.) they are allowing 19 points/game on the road, and that includes games at Houston and Louisville. today they face the 116th ranked scoring offense in the country. I think this is a team that will be very motivated to finish the season strong. UConn, on the other hand, probably wishes last week was the end of the season. a nice revenge win over Rutgers gave them their first home win. I don't know that they'll get up for one more week to play Memphis. even if they are ready to play, I think Memphis will get a solid win.
Missouri (pk) 2 units. it's hard to expect a letdown in the sec championship game, but how does auburn regain their focus after last week? huge win over their archrival and they are suddenly in the discussion for the nc game. I think the difference will be in the running game. auburn still got carved up on the ground last week (218 yards on 35 carries). mizzou can do the same. now I just need james franklin to play mistake-free football.....
south florida (ML) 2 units to win 3. Rutgers clearly packed it in after the Louisville game. they haven't covered a game since then (5 straight). USF is still playing hard. they are 4-0 ATS on the road, and they won the only road game they were getting less than 18 points.
Arizona st (-3) 2 units. let me get this straight.... Stanford already beat the sun devils by 14, az st couldn't run the ball that game, now grice is out and the sun devils are favored to win? well, that makes no sense at all. take a little closer look at that first matchup. az st was coming off that "win" over Wisconsin. they may not have been ready to play the cardinal. in fact, here's the quote from graham:
"They're a championship caliber team, and we weren't ready," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. "I apologized to the players for not having them ready. Stanford was better prepared."
Stanford was up 29-0 at halftime and 39-7 after 3. but the sun devils finally got going, outscoring stanford 21-3 in the 4th. and the FG came with 30 seconds left. so az st has that to build on today. I think they'll be prepared for this game right from the start.
