based on past history, I probably won't have back-to-back good weeks, so fading these may be a good idea.
iowa (+7) 1 unit
iowa (ML) 1 unit to win 2.4. ok, maybe iowa is really as bad as they've looked. but I think they still have enough to win this game.
ODU (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. the monarchs will be pumped up for their first conference game. they should have some success on the ground (they're averaging 5.1 yards/carry and rice is giving up 6.6 yards/carry) which will open things up for Heinicke.
CMU (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. here's a question... as bad as Kansas is, did the coaching staff still have a hard time this week convincing the jayhawks to focus on the chips, instead of looking ahead to texas next week? it's hard to believe a team this bad could be caught overlooking anyone, but nobody playing football in the big 12 can get all that fired up for a mediocre mac team.
ECU (-2.5) 2 units. I think way too many people are expecting a letdown from the pirates today. no way they're not ready for this game against an in-state rival. especially after hearing all week that unc just overlooked them last year. the way ecu let up against va tech last week should give the coaches all they need to keep the team from getting too high this week. and unc has been very unimpressive so far this year.
Utah (+3.5) 2 units
Utah (ML) 2 units to win 2.9. I probably like the utes today more than I should. they'll slow down Michigan's running game and their offense has been really sharp under their new system. granted, they probably won't continue to average 16.7 yards/completion, but I think they're good enough to get it done in the big house.
Louisville/FIU under (44) 2 units. FIU held wagner to 3 points, and Louisville ain't nearly as good as the fightin' seahawks. =8^)
Indiana (+13) 2 units. I can offer no logical explanation, other than this line is clearly looking for Missouri money. I suppose if Indiana scores every possession, they should stay within the 13.
penn state (-27) 3 units. excuse me while I choke on all that chalk. lemme get this straight... umass is coming off back-to-back 3-point losses against teams from the pac 12 and sec, and they're getting 27 against a team that hasn't scored 27 in a game yet this season? hmmmm.... well, psu may only need 28 to cover this line. umass HAS to suffer a letdown. the 3-point home loss against Colorado was bad enough, but blowing an 11-point 4th quarter lead at vandy? then driving to the 5 yard line in the closing seconds, only to miss a short FG that would have sent the game to OT? that's a tough one for college kids to bounce back from. I think the nittany lions are going to dominate this game.
FAU (+3.5) 2 units.
FAU (ML) 2 units to win 3. it's never good when you love FAU 2 weeks in a row. but after taking their whoopin' against Alabama and Nebraska, they're enjoying games against teams at their own level. oh, and they're catching Wyoming between a conference win and a game against michigan state.
Toledo (-14) 1 unit. ugh. more chalk. this is more of a hunch than anything else. I just feel like blowing the game at iowa really hurt this ball state team.
Appalachian st (+1) 3 units. woo hoo! I'm getting a point from southern miss. granted, it's only 1 point. but you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time southern miss covered as a favorite. I think app st is going to treat the southern miss golden eagles like they treated the Campbell camels. yup.
wvu (+7.5) 2 units
wvu (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. for whatever reason, wvu has played Oklahoma very tough the last couple years. they're riding a high after last week and if they keep this one close, they may squeak out a win, as Oklahoma hasn't been tested yet. hell, they haven't left the state of Oklahoma yet.
new mexico st (+3.5) 2 units. maybe this is the biggest sucker line on the board. if it is, then I'm a sucker. since both teams have already played UTEP this year, we can compare the lines to see what vegas thinks of these teams. nmst was catching 10.5 at UTEP and nm was laying 9 to UTEP at home. assuming 3 points for home field, UTEP is 7.5 better than nmst and nm is 6 points better than UTEP. so, according to vegas, nm is 13.5 points better than nmst. according to the line for tonight's game, nm is 6.5 points better. sure, there will be some differences over the first few weeks of the season, but this line has been adjusted by roughly 7 points. so, fuck it, I'm going with the adjustment and taking the points.
iowa (+7) 1 unit
iowa (ML) 1 unit to win 2.4. ok, maybe iowa is really as bad as they've looked. but I think they still have enough to win this game.
ODU (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. the monarchs will be pumped up for their first conference game. they should have some success on the ground (they're averaging 5.1 yards/carry and rice is giving up 6.6 yards/carry) which will open things up for Heinicke.
CMU (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. here's a question... as bad as Kansas is, did the coaching staff still have a hard time this week convincing the jayhawks to focus on the chips, instead of looking ahead to texas next week? it's hard to believe a team this bad could be caught overlooking anyone, but nobody playing football in the big 12 can get all that fired up for a mediocre mac team.
ECU (-2.5) 2 units. I think way too many people are expecting a letdown from the pirates today. no way they're not ready for this game against an in-state rival. especially after hearing all week that unc just overlooked them last year. the way ecu let up against va tech last week should give the coaches all they need to keep the team from getting too high this week. and unc has been very unimpressive so far this year.
Utah (+3.5) 2 units
Utah (ML) 2 units to win 2.9. I probably like the utes today more than I should. they'll slow down Michigan's running game and their offense has been really sharp under their new system. granted, they probably won't continue to average 16.7 yards/completion, but I think they're good enough to get it done in the big house.
Louisville/FIU under (44) 2 units. FIU held wagner to 3 points, and Louisville ain't nearly as good as the fightin' seahawks. =8^)
Indiana (+13) 2 units. I can offer no logical explanation, other than this line is clearly looking for Missouri money. I suppose if Indiana scores every possession, they should stay within the 13.
penn state (-27) 3 units. excuse me while I choke on all that chalk. lemme get this straight... umass is coming off back-to-back 3-point losses against teams from the pac 12 and sec, and they're getting 27 against a team that hasn't scored 27 in a game yet this season? hmmmm.... well, psu may only need 28 to cover this line. umass HAS to suffer a letdown. the 3-point home loss against Colorado was bad enough, but blowing an 11-point 4th quarter lead at vandy? then driving to the 5 yard line in the closing seconds, only to miss a short FG that would have sent the game to OT? that's a tough one for college kids to bounce back from. I think the nittany lions are going to dominate this game.
FAU (+3.5) 2 units.
FAU (ML) 2 units to win 3. it's never good when you love FAU 2 weeks in a row. but after taking their whoopin' against Alabama and Nebraska, they're enjoying games against teams at their own level. oh, and they're catching Wyoming between a conference win and a game against michigan state.
Toledo (-14) 1 unit. ugh. more chalk. this is more of a hunch than anything else. I just feel like blowing the game at iowa really hurt this ball state team.
Appalachian st (+1) 3 units. woo hoo! I'm getting a point from southern miss. granted, it's only 1 point. but you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time southern miss covered as a favorite. I think app st is going to treat the southern miss golden eagles like they treated the Campbell camels. yup.
wvu (+7.5) 2 units
wvu (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. for whatever reason, wvu has played Oklahoma very tough the last couple years. they're riding a high after last week and if they keep this one close, they may squeak out a win, as Oklahoma hasn't been tested yet. hell, they haven't left the state of Oklahoma yet.
new mexico st (+3.5) 2 units. maybe this is the biggest sucker line on the board. if it is, then I'm a sucker. since both teams have already played UTEP this year, we can compare the lines to see what vegas thinks of these teams. nmst was catching 10.5 at UTEP and nm was laying 9 to UTEP at home. assuming 3 points for home field, UTEP is 7.5 better than nmst and nm is 6 points better than UTEP. so, according to vegas, nm is 13.5 points better than nmst. according to the line for tonight's game, nm is 6.5 points better. sure, there will be some differences over the first few weeks of the season, but this line has been adjusted by roughly 7 points. so, fuck it, I'm going with the adjustment and taking the points.
