I hereby present to you some wonderful fade opportunities, especially in the 3:30 and early evening games. i'll be at a party where football will be on tv and people will know I have money on the games. I don't know about y'all, but any time I'm with people who don't bet, but know I have money on the games, I lose. it's guaranteed. and for anyone who wants to say, "well, stupid, don't bet the games during that time frame.", I say "duh". like I could really not play these delicious games today.
vt/wake under (40.5) 3 units. first team to 10 wins. this game has 17-6 written all over it.
Virginia (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. hard to say how Miami will react to blowing that game against fsu, but I'm counting on them reacting poorly. I think they're ripe for the picking today. as is to be expected, kaaya has struggled on the road. he averages over 2 yards fewer per attempt on the road vs. at home, and he has 6 TDs and 6 INTs on the road (vs 16 & 4 at home). he didn't need to do much in their only road win at va tech, and that was good for the 'canes because he was only 7 of 16 for 92 yards. in fact, the more I look at this game, the more I like the cavs. they've beaten the 'canes 3 of the last 4 times they played. the 'canes won last year but, wow, the cavs dominated statistically. they had 28 first downs to 11 for Miami. total yards was 483 vs 304. Virginia just turned the ball over 4 times. oops. and the 'canes didn't have duke Johnson for that game, but the cavs have been solid against the run this year.
Tennessee (-4.5) 3 units. fuck, waited too long on this one. shoulda grabbed it at 3. oh well, hopefully it won't matter. this line is practically begging for Missouri money. I was surprised to see the tigers are 8-2, but then I looked at their schedule. they have avoided almost every good team in the sec. all of them except Georgia, in fact. and Georgia destroyed them 34-0. they haven't played Alabama, ole miss, miss st, auburn, or LSU. obviously I'm not claiming Tennessee is an elite sec team. I'm just saying Missouri appears to be overrated based on a weak (relatively speaking) schedule.
Maryland (ML) 1 unit to win 2. the terps are 4-1 SU on the road this year. last home game for the wolverines... any mistakes and the crowd will be yelling for hoke to be fired.
Syracuse (+7.5) 3 units
Syracuse (ML) 2 units to win 4.8. I really hate when I say things like this, but I love the orange today. the last 2 years, this game was 17-16 and 14-13 and it should be close again today. obviously pitt's offense revolves around conner. Syracuse has been very good against the run this year, giving up 3.25 yards/carry, which is 13th in the country. slowing him down will keep the orange in this game. syracuse is 3-0 ATS on the road this year. and check this out... pitt has been a home fav 4 times this year against teams not named Delaware. they lost all 4 games SU.
purdue (-1) 3 units. love the boilermakers today. loyal readers will remember that I got a copy of northwestern's union contract. it stated that they would play hard in 2 road games. at psu and at nd. lo and behold, they won both of those games. hell, they might not even show up for today's game, forcing coach fitzgerald to suit up the band.
bc (+17) 3 units.
bc 1st half (+9.5) 2 units
bc (ML) 2 units to win 11.5. that's right, I think bc has a shot to win this game. they were very competitive against fsu last year, until a hail mary at the end of the first half gave the 'noles a 7-point lead. bc still hung around after that until a TAINT early in the 4th quarter finished 'em off. they've had an extra week to watch that film and get fired up for today. fsu's habit this year of turning it on in the 2nd half isn't going to work today, because if the eagles have the lead, they will keep pounding the ball on the ground. oh, and bc is 4-0 SU on the road this year. I'm really looking forward to seeing the look on Winston's face as he walks off the field after throwing the game-ending INT.
la tech/odu over (68.5) 3 units. the defenses might just stay on the bench in this game. odu is 7-3 to the over, but two of those 3 unders saw 69 & 70 points.
nm/col st over (67.5) 2 units. Colorado st's offense has been rolling, and they get Higgins back today. their defense will struggle with new mexico's option. look for a LOT of points today.
Arkansas (ML) 2 units to win 2.7. the hogs may suffer a letdown after their big win over lsu, but I think they'll build on it. they've covered 7 of their last 8, while ole miss has lost their last 2 conference games.
ok st/baylor under (69) 3 units. I don't know if this is the worst total on the board or a complete trap. obviously I'm betting that it's a bad line. Baylor's defense doesn't get the recognition they deserve, but they're only allowing 2.9 yards/rush. ok st's defense has been ok this year, and their offense... well, I saw their offense on a milk carton last week. I just don't see a lot of points in this game.
Utah (-4.5) 2 units. talk about a team that doesn't get respect... Utah is 7-3 and ranked #20 in the country. and yet this is only the 4th time they've been favored this year. that's worked out well for me, because I prefer this team in the underdog role. it's tough laying points with this offense. but their defense will harass Solomon all day, forcing the freshman into some mistakes. I expect Utah to grind out another typical Utah win.
vt/wake under (40.5) 3 units. first team to 10 wins. this game has 17-6 written all over it.
Virginia (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. hard to say how Miami will react to blowing that game against fsu, but I'm counting on them reacting poorly. I think they're ripe for the picking today. as is to be expected, kaaya has struggled on the road. he averages over 2 yards fewer per attempt on the road vs. at home, and he has 6 TDs and 6 INTs on the road (vs 16 & 4 at home). he didn't need to do much in their only road win at va tech, and that was good for the 'canes because he was only 7 of 16 for 92 yards. in fact, the more I look at this game, the more I like the cavs. they've beaten the 'canes 3 of the last 4 times they played. the 'canes won last year but, wow, the cavs dominated statistically. they had 28 first downs to 11 for Miami. total yards was 483 vs 304. Virginia just turned the ball over 4 times. oops. and the 'canes didn't have duke Johnson for that game, but the cavs have been solid against the run this year.
Tennessee (-4.5) 3 units. fuck, waited too long on this one. shoulda grabbed it at 3. oh well, hopefully it won't matter. this line is practically begging for Missouri money. I was surprised to see the tigers are 8-2, but then I looked at their schedule. they have avoided almost every good team in the sec. all of them except Georgia, in fact. and Georgia destroyed them 34-0. they haven't played Alabama, ole miss, miss st, auburn, or LSU. obviously I'm not claiming Tennessee is an elite sec team. I'm just saying Missouri appears to be overrated based on a weak (relatively speaking) schedule.
Maryland (ML) 1 unit to win 2. the terps are 4-1 SU on the road this year. last home game for the wolverines... any mistakes and the crowd will be yelling for hoke to be fired.
Syracuse (+7.5) 3 units
Syracuse (ML) 2 units to win 4.8. I really hate when I say things like this, but I love the orange today. the last 2 years, this game was 17-16 and 14-13 and it should be close again today. obviously pitt's offense revolves around conner. Syracuse has been very good against the run this year, giving up 3.25 yards/carry, which is 13th in the country. slowing him down will keep the orange in this game. syracuse is 3-0 ATS on the road this year. and check this out... pitt has been a home fav 4 times this year against teams not named Delaware. they lost all 4 games SU.
purdue (-1) 3 units. love the boilermakers today. loyal readers will remember that I got a copy of northwestern's union contract. it stated that they would play hard in 2 road games. at psu and at nd. lo and behold, they won both of those games. hell, they might not even show up for today's game, forcing coach fitzgerald to suit up the band.
bc (+17) 3 units.
bc 1st half (+9.5) 2 units
bc (ML) 2 units to win 11.5. that's right, I think bc has a shot to win this game. they were very competitive against fsu last year, until a hail mary at the end of the first half gave the 'noles a 7-point lead. bc still hung around after that until a TAINT early in the 4th quarter finished 'em off. they've had an extra week to watch that film and get fired up for today. fsu's habit this year of turning it on in the 2nd half isn't going to work today, because if the eagles have the lead, they will keep pounding the ball on the ground. oh, and bc is 4-0 SU on the road this year. I'm really looking forward to seeing the look on Winston's face as he walks off the field after throwing the game-ending INT.
la tech/odu over (68.5) 3 units. the defenses might just stay on the bench in this game. odu is 7-3 to the over, but two of those 3 unders saw 69 & 70 points.
nm/col st over (67.5) 2 units. Colorado st's offense has been rolling, and they get Higgins back today. their defense will struggle with new mexico's option. look for a LOT of points today.
Arkansas (ML) 2 units to win 2.7. the hogs may suffer a letdown after their big win over lsu, but I think they'll build on it. they've covered 7 of their last 8, while ole miss has lost their last 2 conference games.
ok st/baylor under (69) 3 units. I don't know if this is the worst total on the board or a complete trap. obviously I'm betting that it's a bad line. Baylor's defense doesn't get the recognition they deserve, but they're only allowing 2.9 yards/rush. ok st's defense has been ok this year, and their offense... well, I saw their offense on a milk carton last week. I just don't see a lot of points in this game.
Utah (-4.5) 2 units. talk about a team that doesn't get respect... Utah is 7-3 and ranked #20 in the country. and yet this is only the 4th time they've been favored this year. that's worked out well for me, because I prefer this team in the underdog role. it's tough laying points with this offense. but their defense will harass Solomon all day, forcing the freshman into some mistakes. I expect Utah to grind out another typical Utah win.
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