Saturday

[Smitty]

ah, here we are again. bowl season. time to finish christmas shopping from the previous year.

New Orleans bowl

Nevada (-1.5) 3 units. really liking the wolfpack here, despite a head coach in his first bowl game. one of the primary things I look at for bowl games is how a team performed away from home. and it's especially applicable here, as this is practically a home game for the ragin' cajuns. Nevada is 5-1 ATS on the road this year. the only loss was in OT at air force, when they lost by 7 as a 3-point dog. a big factor in their road success is the qb. here's fajardo's breakdown:

home 55.7% 8 TDs 8 INTs sacked 12 times
away 64.7% 10 TDs 3 INTs sacked 4 times

obviously another factor in bowl games is motivation. I think we have a big edge for Nevada. they didn't play in a bowl game last year. 2 years ago, they gave up 2 TDs in the last 46 seconds to get stunned by Arizona. they'll be pretty fired up for this game. ul lafayette is playing in their 4th consecutive new orleans bowl. they have won and covered the last 3. maybe they'll still be excited, but how many new orleans bowls can a team get motivated for? also, I'm pretty sure the previous 3 were at night. this game starts at 10:00 am local time. that new orleans crowd may not be as rowdy as usual.

 

[Smitty]

New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Utah st (-10) 1 unit. the big question here is how does utah st bounce back from the blowout loss at boise? I'm expecting that defense, which has been very good, to show some pride and shut down the miners. that said, it's tough laying this many points here. utep will be motivated, playing in their first bowl game since 2010. and utah st is 115th in the country converting 3rd downs. they're really going to need to pick up big chunks on the ground on first and second down. fortunately for the aggies, utep allows 5.1 yards/carry. so a small play here, as I'm looking for utah state's ground game to wear down utep as they pull away late.

I think the better play is....

under (44.5) 2 units. utep's offense relies on the ground game, and this will be one of the best run defenses they've faced this year. utah st only allows 3.3 yards/carry. against la tech, which also allows 3.3 yards/carry, utep ran the ball 36 times for 81 yards and lost 55-3. sure, it's a bowl game and they'll pull out some trick plays, but I can't see utep having much success offensively. on the other side of the ball, utah st will need to establish the running game and sometimes that takes a while, especially against an opponent that is fired up to be playing in a bowl game. a first half under is probably a good play, too, as I don't expect much scoring until late in the game when, hopefully, the aggies start getting some big runs and pull away.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

feels like the first las vegas bowl in a long time without byu. I always enjoyed the thought of all those Mormons in vegas. well, lucky for us, utah is bringing the Mormon power this year.

Colorado st (ML) 2 units to win 2.5. yeah, I'm well aware of the fact that teams tend to struggle after losing their head coach going into the bowl game. but I have to bet against utah, as it appears they finally wore down late in the season. they had a very tough stretch... 3-point win over usc, OT loss at az st, the fucking fumble game against oregon, and then they emptied the tank in the physical 3-point win at Stanford. after that was the blowout home loss to arizona and a narrow win against colorado. sure, maybe orchard will chase grayson all over the field today and utah could cruise to an easy win. but that's not Utah's style. in fact, not counting their easy non-conference schedule (Idaho st, fresno st, and Michigan), they only won one game by more than 4 points, and that was a 6-point OT win. utah grinds out wins and the opponent is almost always in the game. give me that and a talented senior qb, and i'll take my chances with the dog.

one more important fact, that I just made up... no team in the history of the world, has ever beaten Colorado and Colorado st in back-to-back games.

 

[Smitty]

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

wmu (-2) 2 units. this is mostly a gut feeling. air force had a better record playing in a tougher conference. wmu collapsed in the season finale against northern ill. both teams are coming off huge improvements from 2013. to me, this line just seems off. I would think air force should be favored. the line is looking for AF money. I guess one thing to consider... air force has never beaten the broncos in boise. wait, different broncos. hmmm.... seriously, why is wmu favored?

ok, a couple things in wmu's favor. having a few weeks to prepare for that option is very helpful. and the wmu ground game with franklin will keep the air force offense off the field. also, wmu has the added motivation of never having won a bowl game.

 

[Smitty]

Camellia Bowl

Camellia Bowl

ok, just like everybody else, I looked at this game and said "what's a camellia?" well.... The Camellia is the state flower of Alabama. which seems odd, because "They are found in eastern and southern Asia, from the Himalayas east to Japan and Indonesia." I'm no geography expert, but I don't know where in asia alabama is. anyway, for everyone who wants to read up on the camellia, here you go. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camellia

you're welcome.

now on to our regularly scheduled program.

south alabama (-2.5) 2 units. one of the few times i'll make an exception to my rule of playing against teams playing bowl games at or near home. something tells me the jaguars will have no lack of motivation in this game whatsoever. they have had a football program for 5 years. the first 3 were at the 1AA level (or FCS, or whatever the hell they call it now). so this was only their second year playing with the big boys. last year, they were bowl eligible, but didn't get an invite. so this is their first bowl game, and their fans will be pretty excited.

just a few quick notes on bowling green... hard to say how they'll bounce back after getting destroyed by northern ill in the mac championship game. their defense is really, really bad. and they are led by a coach in his first year. historically, that leads to bad results in a bowl game.

 

[fla]

Christmas party hangover here and I think I agree with every pick. Nevada 2h for me. Unfortunately the line should be better.

Good luck!

:toast:

 

[Smitty]

thanks, fla! GL to you, too. :toast:

gotta like Nevada in the 2nd half. they should start waking up any time now, as we hit 9:30 AM PST.

 

[namja]

gotta like Nevada in the 2nd half. they should start waking up any time now, as we hit 9:30 AM PST.

Nevada looked good first half. Just couldn't score. And that red zone fumble didn't help. Taking Nevada 2H with you. 1 unit.