kc (+5.5) 2 unit
kc (ML) 2 units to win 4.2. well, i didn't drink the kc kool aid last week, and that was ugly. now i've had a few sips, so they are probably fucked. taking alex smith in a playoff game at foxboro. and really the biggest mismatch... i'm taking andy reid in a playoff game at foxboro. what the fuck am i thinking? kinda need kc to blow 'em out, because if it's close in the 4th, there's a huge advantage for ne. that said, i see two factors working in kc's favor. one is that new england has really stumbled down the stretch. i mean, scoring 10 points at miami with home field on the line? and the other is that this is a decent matchup for the chiefs. they can get pressure on brady without having to blitz, and that's huge.
under (44) 2 units. i like the kc defense to keep them in the game, and i think their offense will be fairly conservative, especially with maclin hobbled on a bad ankle.
green bay (+7.5) 1 unit
green bay (ML) 1 unit to win 2.7. no, i don't think gb is the better team or anything like that. i'm simply betting against carson palmer in a playoff game. yup. it's really that simple.
under (49.5) 3 units. sure, gb should score a little more than in the first meeting, but that's not saying much. and i'm counting on a) their defense showing some pride and stepping up after their beatdown a few weeks ago and 2) arizona coming out with a fairly conservative game plan.
kc (ML) 2 units to win 4.2. well, i didn't drink the kc kool aid last week, and that was ugly. now i've had a few sips, so they are probably fucked. taking alex smith in a playoff game at foxboro. and really the biggest mismatch... i'm taking andy reid in a playoff game at foxboro. what the fuck am i thinking? kinda need kc to blow 'em out, because if it's close in the 4th, there's a huge advantage for ne. that said, i see two factors working in kc's favor. one is that new england has really stumbled down the stretch. i mean, scoring 10 points at miami with home field on the line? and the other is that this is a decent matchup for the chiefs. they can get pressure on brady without having to blitz, and that's huge.
under (44) 2 units. i like the kc defense to keep them in the game, and i think their offense will be fairly conservative, especially with maclin hobbled on a bad ankle.
green bay (+7.5) 1 unit
green bay (ML) 1 unit to win 2.7. no, i don't think gb is the better team or anything like that. i'm simply betting against carson palmer in a playoff game. yup. it's really that simple.
under (49.5) 3 units. sure, gb should score a little more than in the first meeting, but that's not saying much. and i'm counting on a) their defense showing some pride and stepping up after their beatdown a few weeks ago and 2) arizona coming out with a fairly conservative game plan.
