northwestern (+3.5) 4 units.
northwesten (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. this actually feels too easy, what with coan making his first career start for the badgers. getting a little value after northwestern laid an egg at rutgers last week. actually, as longtime readers know, i hate betting against a backup qb making his first start. the team always seems to step up and rally around him. but i loved the wildcats if hornibrook was playing, and i'm not backing off that. looking at last year's matchup, nw outplayed wisconsin, despite the loss. the badgers only had one scoring drive over 50 yards, and gained all of 13 first downs. obviously wisconsin is going to run the ball 60 times and the wildcats will put 14 guys in the box (at least until the refs start counting). pat fitzgerald is going to leap off the sideline to make a huge tackle on 4th down late in the game and northwestern holds on for the victory.
the under on that games feels so easy that i can't even bet it.
wake forest (ML) 4 units to win 4.8. i've been looking for spots to bet against louisville all year. especially any time they are favored. absolutely love wake in this spot. *side note* louisville's qb is named.... jawon pass. seriously.
purdue (-1.5) 2 units. it will be interesting to see how the boilermakers respond after last week, but the fact that it was a blowout makes it easier to re-focus than if it was a last-second win. plus michigan st is coming off their own emotional game. good matchup for purdue. michigan state's defense is vulnerable to the pass, and purdue is 6th in the country, averaging 337 passing yards/game.
purdue/mich st over (49) 2 units. looks like some rain, but not much wind, so the passing game should be ok. primary concern with this play is that msu might not score much. hopefully rocky lombardi (yes, seriously), find a rhythm late in the game and puts up some points.
texas tech (+6) 3 units
texas tech (ML) 1 unit to win 1.8. this line is a little suspicious. overreaction to the cyclones beating wvu two weeks ago? i think tech is the better team. bowman was pretty good in his only road start, completing 35 of 46 at ok st for 397 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. the red raiders are 2-0 on the road, with a blowout at ok st and a narrow win at tcu with a backup qb. this line kinda stinks, but i'm holding my nose.
florida (+7) 3 units. i think georgia lines are still a little inflated from last year. the bulldogs haven't done anything this year to suggest they should be laying a td to a decent team with a good defense.
houston (-9) 5 units. lemme get this straight... the #21 undefeated south florida bulls are 9-point DOGS? ok, i'll bite. and, yeah, the cougars should blow them out. king has been awesome, throwing 23 TDs and only 3 INTs. barnett on the other side has thrown 10 TDs against 7 INTs. and that gets worse on the road - 3 TDs and 4 INTs. at illinois, umass, and tulsa. not exactly stout defenses. the real key might be the ground game though. both teams can run the ball, but houston is a lot better at stopping the run, giving up 3.3 yards/carry. USF is 121st in the country, allowing 229 yards/game.
washington st (ML) 4 units to win 4.6. wow, the coogs get no respect. stanford really hasn't done much offensively, certainly due in part to love dealing with injuries. and they're going to have to be able to put up some points to stay with wash. st. coogs also have the confidence from beating stanford last year. in that game, they held love to 69 yards on 16 carries. oh, and one of those carries was for 52 yards.
northwesten (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. this actually feels too easy, what with coan making his first career start for the badgers. getting a little value after northwestern laid an egg at rutgers last week. actually, as longtime readers know, i hate betting against a backup qb making his first start. the team always seems to step up and rally around him. but i loved the wildcats if hornibrook was playing, and i'm not backing off that. looking at last year's matchup, nw outplayed wisconsin, despite the loss. the badgers only had one scoring drive over 50 yards, and gained all of 13 first downs. obviously wisconsin is going to run the ball 60 times and the wildcats will put 14 guys in the box (at least until the refs start counting). pat fitzgerald is going to leap off the sideline to make a huge tackle on 4th down late in the game and northwestern holds on for the victory.
the under on that games feels so easy that i can't even bet it.
wake forest (ML) 4 units to win 4.8. i've been looking for spots to bet against louisville all year. especially any time they are favored. absolutely love wake in this spot. *side note* louisville's qb is named.... jawon pass. seriously.
purdue (-1.5) 2 units. it will be interesting to see how the boilermakers respond after last week, but the fact that it was a blowout makes it easier to re-focus than if it was a last-second win. plus michigan st is coming off their own emotional game. good matchup for purdue. michigan state's defense is vulnerable to the pass, and purdue is 6th in the country, averaging 337 passing yards/game.
purdue/mich st over (49) 2 units. looks like some rain, but not much wind, so the passing game should be ok. primary concern with this play is that msu might not score much. hopefully rocky lombardi (yes, seriously), find a rhythm late in the game and puts up some points.
texas tech (+6) 3 units
texas tech (ML) 1 unit to win 1.8. this line is a little suspicious. overreaction to the cyclones beating wvu two weeks ago? i think tech is the better team. bowman was pretty good in his only road start, completing 35 of 46 at ok st for 397 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. the red raiders are 2-0 on the road, with a blowout at ok st and a narrow win at tcu with a backup qb. this line kinda stinks, but i'm holding my nose.
florida (+7) 3 units. i think georgia lines are still a little inflated from last year. the bulldogs haven't done anything this year to suggest they should be laying a td to a decent team with a good defense.
houston (-9) 5 units. lemme get this straight... the #21 undefeated south florida bulls are 9-point DOGS? ok, i'll bite. and, yeah, the cougars should blow them out. king has been awesome, throwing 23 TDs and only 3 INTs. barnett on the other side has thrown 10 TDs against 7 INTs. and that gets worse on the road - 3 TDs and 4 INTs. at illinois, umass, and tulsa. not exactly stout defenses. the real key might be the ground game though. both teams can run the ball, but houston is a lot better at stopping the run, giving up 3.3 yards/carry. USF is 121st in the country, allowing 229 yards/game.
washington st (ML) 4 units to win 4.6. wow, the coogs get no respect. stanford really hasn't done much offensively, certainly due in part to love dealing with injuries. and they're going to have to be able to put up some points to stay with wash. st. coogs also have the confidence from beating stanford last year. in that game, they held love to 69 yards on 16 carries. oh, and one of those carries was for 52 yards.
