Over 9 (-130) Game 1 Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Under 7? (-125) Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals -165
Kansas City Royals -118
Oakland Athletics -165
1 unit bet wins 14.18
Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-59, +29.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
"We Want Beer" - Prohibition Protest, 1931.
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo
Down 3-0 with 2 outs in 9th last night, Mariners' win probability vs Red Sox was 1.1 percent (via @EliasSports).
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -134
I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday?s 8-3 setback. Milwaukee sends Wily Peralta (15-7, 3.27 ERA) to the hill; Peralta has been ?lights out? of late, he?s 6-1 with a tiny 1.59 ERA over the last six weeks. Most recently Peralta would allow five hits over six scoreless innings in his team?s 7-2 win at Dodger Stadium on Sunday; note that Peralta has been especially dominant of late, he?s won four consecutive starts at home behind a minuscule 1.03 ERA (and note that he?s 2-0 with a very respectable 2.25 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. the Bucs). Milwaukee faces Edinson Volquez (10-7, 3.58 ERA) who has also been great of late, he?s 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts in August. The Brewers though have won 10 of the last 14 in this series and I think that trend gets extended here; Peralta gets the slight nod on the bump in my opinion, consider a second look at the home side in this spot.
Nick Tepesch has a shot to get his ERA under 4.00 today, but his peripherals tell me that a 5.00 ERA is more in line with his stuff. He?s another contact oriented pitcher for a contact hungry Royals lineup.
1:05 PM EST. Rounding out the back-end of Chicago?s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll?s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It?s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.
25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he?s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
[i would also add that Carroll has good day numbers, in limited data set to be sure, and Yanks are 1-3 in Kuroda's last 4 starts]
Angels at Athletics
Pick: Over
Head to Head the over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings. The over is 25-9-4 in the last 38 meetings in Oakland. Lester has been a great pickup for Oakland but he is not throwing shutouts, he has given up 3ER in 3 of 4 A's starts. The last 10 CJ Wilson starts are 7-1-2 over 7 runs.
Kansas City Royals -108
The Royals are worth a shot at this price. They are 23-6 in their last 29, 9-2 in their last 11 on the road, 38-14 in their last 52 as a road favorite and 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 as a road fave. The Rangers are 14-43 in their last 57 overall, 15-36 in their last 51 at home and 1-4 in Tepesch's last 5 starts versus teams with a winning record.
West Brom +383 over SOUTHAMPTON
A team that is full of surprises, West Bromwich Albion may surprise the Saints of Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium. West Brom is feeling delight after drawing Sunderland in their opening fixture while Southampton is caning with despair. Southampton has undergone huge changes in both their personnel and management in the offseason and this has also translated to the pitch.
By contrast, West Bromwich Albion has settled in to their second year in the English Premier League, escaping relegation in 2013 and earning the right to contend yet again in 2014. In previous meetings between these two opposing sides, each team has emerged victorious three times, drawn twice and lost three times. Even more astounding, each team has won twice at home and lost once at home. To display the mirroring sides even more, they have also drawn once at each other's pitch. With this consideration, Southampton enters the contest as -140 favorite which is rather presumptuous given the statistics and results of recent games. No question this one can go either way but all the value is in taking this sweet tag and that?s precisely how we?ll play it.
Under 7? (-125) Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals -165
Kansas City Royals -118
Oakland Athletics -165
1 unit bet wins 14.18
Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-59, +29.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
"We Want Beer" - Prohibition Protest, 1931.
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo
Down 3-0 with 2 outs in 9th last night, Mariners' win probability vs Red Sox was 1.1 percent (via @EliasSports).
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -134
I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday?s 8-3 setback. Milwaukee sends Wily Peralta (15-7, 3.27 ERA) to the hill; Peralta has been ?lights out? of late, he?s 6-1 with a tiny 1.59 ERA over the last six weeks. Most recently Peralta would allow five hits over six scoreless innings in his team?s 7-2 win at Dodger Stadium on Sunday; note that Peralta has been especially dominant of late, he?s won four consecutive starts at home behind a minuscule 1.03 ERA (and note that he?s 2-0 with a very respectable 2.25 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. the Bucs). Milwaukee faces Edinson Volquez (10-7, 3.58 ERA) who has also been great of late, he?s 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts in August. The Brewers though have won 10 of the last 14 in this series and I think that trend gets extended here; Peralta gets the slight nod on the bump in my opinion, consider a second look at the home side in this spot.
Nick Tepesch has a shot to get his ERA under 4.00 today, but his peripherals tell me that a 5.00 ERA is more in line with his stuff. He?s another contact oriented pitcher for a contact hungry Royals lineup.
1:05 PM EST. Rounding out the back-end of Chicago?s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll?s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It?s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.
25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he?s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
[i would also add that Carroll has good day numbers, in limited data set to be sure, and Yanks are 1-3 in Kuroda's last 4 starts]
Angels at Athletics
Pick: Over
Head to Head the over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings. The over is 25-9-4 in the last 38 meetings in Oakland. Lester has been a great pickup for Oakland but he is not throwing shutouts, he has given up 3ER in 3 of 4 A's starts. The last 10 CJ Wilson starts are 7-1-2 over 7 runs.
Kansas City Royals -108
The Royals are worth a shot at this price. They are 23-6 in their last 29, 9-2 in their last 11 on the road, 38-14 in their last 52 as a road favorite and 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 as a road fave. The Rangers are 14-43 in their last 57 overall, 15-36 in their last 51 at home and 1-4 in Tepesch's last 5 starts versus teams with a winning record.
West Brom +383 over SOUTHAMPTON
A team that is full of surprises, West Bromwich Albion may surprise the Saints of Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium. West Brom is feeling delight after drawing Sunderland in their opening fixture while Southampton is caning with despair. Southampton has undergone huge changes in both their personnel and management in the offseason and this has also translated to the pitch.
By contrast, West Bromwich Albion has settled in to their second year in the English Premier League, escaping relegation in 2013 and earning the right to contend yet again in 2014. In previous meetings between these two opposing sides, each team has emerged victorious three times, drawn twice and lost three times. Even more astounding, each team has won twice at home and lost once at home. To display the mirroring sides even more, they have also drawn once at each other's pitch. With this consideration, Southampton enters the contest as -140 favorite which is rather presumptuous given the statistics and results of recent games. No question this one can go either way but all the value is in taking this sweet tag and that?s precisely how we?ll play it.
