02:10 PM [951] STL CARDINALS -151 ( C MARTINEZ -R / C ANDERSON -R )
08:40 PM [964] TOTAL u12-115 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J EICKHOFF -R / T ANDERSON -L )
01:05 PM [966] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -135 ( M BOYD -L / A SANCHEZ -R )
04:05 PM [970] BOS RED SOX -182 ( M MOORE -L / R PORCELLO -R )
04:10 PM [972] CLE INDIANS -175 ( C SABATHIA -L / D SALAZAR -R )
04:10 PM [974] HOU ASTROS -235 ( K GRAVEMAN -R / L MCCULLERS -R )
02:10 PM [980] TOTAL u7+105 (ATL BRAVES vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( J TEHERAN -R / J QUINTANA -L )
1 unit bet pays 37 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-102, -24.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carlos Martinez's matchup against Milwaukee is enticing, to say the least. Not only are the Brewers punchless against righty pitching (88 wRC+), but they strike out at a whopping 26 percent clip against righties, by far the worst mark in baseball. Martinez hasn't been a strikeout machine this season, netting a K/9 rate of just 7.0. However, he has a history of missing more bats (9.2 K/9 in 2015), and he whiffed a season-high eight hitters (to go along with eight scoreless innings) when he last faced Milwaukee in late May, so there's still decent upside here..Carlos Martinez..owns a 1.46 ERA in his past seven starts,
Boyd had a 3.38 ERA through his first four starts, but he now sits with a 6.44 mark after giving up 13 runs in his past two turns. He took a positive step in not issuing a walk, as he had walked 11 through 25 2/3 innings prior to this start, but control isn?t everything. With a lifetime 7.17 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 86 2/3 big league innings, the lefty has a long way to go
CARDINALS AT BREWERS
PLAY: CARDINALS -1
St. Louis righty Carlos Martinez continues to do a solid job for the Cardinals. He owns a big edge in today?s matchup over Milwaukee?s Chase Anderson. There?s certainly a price to pay in terms of the betting line, but I believe there?s ample reason to back the Redbirds today.
Anderson has been really awful lately, and he actually got kind of lucky last start as a breeze blowing in at Busch Stadium probably saved him at least two homers. Milwaukee has gotten some better than expected performances from a couple of their largely unheralded starters, but Anderson has been disappointing. I think you can make a case that he?s not even a #5 starter at this point.
Carlos Martinez is just 7-6 for the Cardinals, but he?s pitching much better ball than that middle of the road record might indicate. He?s had seven straight starts that have graded out as average or better. Martinez no longer just rears back and tries to blow away the opposition. He?s become a quality pitcher who can now go deeper into games and rarely beats himself in the process. Martinez is now at the point where when he gets the baseball every fifth day, there?s a very good chance he?ll get to the seventh inning and will give his team a good chance to record a win.
The Brewers have actually played a bit better than I anticipated, despite the fact they?re nine games below .500. They?re a winning team for the season to date at Miller Park, and they?re not the pushovers I though they might be prior to the season. The Cardinals are just 44-42, so there?s little question they?re at least a mild disappointment as we head toward the All-Star break. The problem for the Redbirds has been close games. When a team is +78 net runs through 86 games, they ought to be better than just two games above breakeven. But that run differential also suggests that this is a team capable of getting hot, and I like the fact they?re playing as well as they are on the road.
I definitely like the idea of backing Martinez in a matchup with Anderson. So I?m going to split the ticket on this game, with a split on the steep money line as well the close to even money runs line, and I?ll make the Cardinals today?s free play.
Jose Quintana-The Braves have arguably the worst lineup in baseball. It's particularly brutal against left-handed pitching, as the team's 67 wRC+, .273 wOBA and .090 ISO all rank either worst or second-worst in baseball. Quintana is coming off a rough June (5.51 ERA), but he twirled seven innings of one-run ball his last time out and owns a 2.92 ERA at home this season. He should have little trouble carving through this Braves lineup.
The Rays have hammered left-handed pitching this season. But right-handed pitching? Not so much. They currently sport an 88 wRC+ versus righties with a bloated 25 percent strikeout rate. That puts Rick Porcello in a nice spot Saturday.
Matt Moore has looked good of late, holding a 2.43 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his past five starts. With a matchup against Boston coming up, however, it might be best to give the left-hander a breather and stick him on the bench. The Red Sox have mashed lefties this season, putting up a .349 wOBA against them. It also doesn't help that Moore has posted a 6.43 ERA away from Tropicana Field this year.
The development of Perdomo?s sinker has given him a legitimate weapon, and he boasts one of the Majors? highest ground-ball rates over the past month, as a result. The Rule 5 pick has tossed six frames in three of his four starts.
Jeff Banister had previously stated unequivocally that Martinez would start on Saturday, but with Cole Hamels failing to go five innings -- marking the sixth straight game that a starter has failed to go five -- I suspect that the Rangers wanted someone who they felt gave them a better shot of eating innings than Martinez would.
Lohse, 37, joined the Texas organization on a minor league deal earlier in the season and has been working at the Triple-A level. Over 58 2/3 innings through ten starts, he has put up a rather unsightly 5.06 ERA, though a 61.4% strand rate isn?t doing him any favors.
While Lohse?s minor league performance doesn?t inspire a ton of confidence, the Rangers are in need of rotation arms and will see what he has left in the tank. And there?s at least some reason to hope that the veteran can deliver useful innings for a big league staff.
Across his 15 MLB campaigns, Lohse owns a 4.37 ERA with 5.8 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. His earned run average ballooned to 5.85 last year, but that broke a string of four consecutive years in which Lohse?s ERA never drifted above the mid-3?s. Beyond that, the underlying peripherals looked much the same as ever and Lohse was still working at his customary ~89 mph level with the fastball.
Dodgers -1.5 -115
I really like what I saw from McCarthy in his last start..he was rock solid and facing the Padres lineup sets up for another solid outing...Dodgers have been playing well and closing out this series on w high not the next few days is crucial...LA lit it up last night with the long ball..Turner, Grandal and Gonzalez all go yard early in that only..Dodgers had a ton of hits and I expect that type of game here against Perdomo...Perdomo has a 7.93 ERA and enjoyed one of his better games his last time out..I think the success here is short lived...Dodgers saw him back in late May and lit him up..Dodgers will be looking to build off
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11?
The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (6-9, 3.30 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. Atlanta on Monday, allowing two runs off five scattered hits to go along with eight K?s over 7.2 innings in the victory. Eickhoff is quietly surging into the break as he hasn?t given up more than three earned runs in a single start since May 28th (note that over his last seven starts, Eickhoff has posted an impressive 41:15 K:BB in 44 innings to go along with a very respectable 2.25 ERA). The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (0-3, 3.03) who took a loss vs. the Giants on Monday despite allowing just three runs off four hits over six innings. Anderson will now look to secure his first victory of the season and improve upon his already impressive 2.50 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors field. With these two ?under the radar? hurlers squaring off, we think the UNDER is indeed worthy of a second look in this particular match-up.
Marlins at Reds
Play: Over 8?
Lamb gets the start for the Reds and is 1-5 with a 5.43 ERA this season. The Cincy southpaw has been awful on the road this season with an 8.51 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP and Lamb got rocked at Washington in his most recent start. Conley gets the start for the Marlins and has been putting up some decent numbers but he also faced the Braves twice in his three prior starts. In 2 of his last 3 outings that have not come against Atlanta, Conley has given up 5 earned runs in the start. None of Lamb?s last three starts have resulted in an under and the over is 9-3 in Miami?s Saturday games this season. Also, the Marlins are 18-11 to the over in day games this year. The Reds are also 18-11 to the over in day games this season. After yesterday?s pitchers duel, look for the hot hitting to resume. Cincinnati had averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before scoring only once yesterday. The Marlins have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last dozen games and the Reds bullpen has been awful this season.
San Diego @ LOS ANGELES
Brandon McCarthy was brilliant in his first game back in well over a year last week against the Rockies. McCarthy struck out eight batters over five full and we suspect the Dodgers will stretch him out even a little more today. It's a nice story but McCarthy is not Clayton Kershaw yet he's priced like him today. We are not willing to put that much stock into one start against a Colorado team that couldn't hit a beach ball in that series. In his rehab starts, McCarthy was tagged for seven runs in 11 innings. What we have here is an overreaction to McCarthy?s great return but he?s 33 years old and he?s very unlikely to go more than six innings here no matter how good he is. Oh, and by the way, his counterpart is so much better than his surface stats suggest.
The future is bright for Luis Perdomo. His ugly surface stats (7.93 ERA) have him underpriced, which is something we are going to try and take advantage of. Perdomo has filthy stuff with a four-pitch arsenal. In Perdomo's last start, he held the D-Backs to two runs on nine hits while striking out five in six innings of work. We like that bulldog mentality and we also like that he?s capable of getting out of jams on his own with 53 K's in 59 innings. Perdomo?s .402 batting average against on batted balls in play (BABIP) is an extremely unlucky number that is sure to improve. In six appearances in June, including four starts, Perdomo?s high ERA was the result of a 38% hit rate, 58% strand rate and 43% hr/f more than anything else. His underlying skills as a starter were outstanding with 8.4 K?s/9 with a 62% groundball rate. In fact, he was the only starter in the majors in June who combined a 12.0%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss rate % against it), Perdomo is worth playing 100% of the time at prices like this. Not many have even heard of him, let alone know how good he is. This is without question one of the biggest overlays of the season so far. A must play.
L.A. Angels +108 over BALTIMORE
The Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors and that alone makes them worthy of taking back a tag here. L.A. has won four straight while scoring 34 runs in those games. We also get a huge edge on the mound with Nick Tropeano over Yovani Gallardo. Tropeano is 3-2 in 11 starts with a 3.28 ERA. It?s a shaky sample but he did the same thing in 38 innings last year. Sharp improvements in Tropeano?s K-rate and control are well-supported by his strong swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike spikes. Tropeano?s solid fastball sets up his plus secondary pitches. All the components are all there for the great value that Tropeano offers. The only thing missing is MLB IP at this point but we're suggesting to buy him up at a low price. We can understand why the Angels were relying on him for a good year.
Since his return from the DL, Yovani Gallardo is 2-0 in four starts. That?s all because of run support and not his skills. Here?s a guy with a WHIP of 1.64, an xERA of 5.38, a 6% swing and miss rate and one of the lowest velocity fastballs in the game at 88.6 MLB. Gallardo is good at issuing walks, he?s good at being taken deep and if the Orioles weren?t paying him a god damn fortune, he would likely be in the press box making hotel reservations for the Orioles next trip. Gallardo is one of the five worst starters in baseball and he?ll now face a team that is seeing beach balls at the plate. It should be fun.
08:40 PM [964] TOTAL u12-115 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J EICKHOFF -R / T ANDERSON -L )
01:05 PM [966] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -135 ( M BOYD -L / A SANCHEZ -R )
04:05 PM [970] BOS RED SOX -182 ( M MOORE -L / R PORCELLO -R )
04:10 PM [972] CLE INDIANS -175 ( C SABATHIA -L / D SALAZAR -R )
04:10 PM [974] HOU ASTROS -235 ( K GRAVEMAN -R / L MCCULLERS -R )
02:10 PM [980] TOTAL u7+105 (ATL BRAVES vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( J TEHERAN -R / J QUINTANA -L )
1 unit bet pays 37 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-102, -24.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carlos Martinez's matchup against Milwaukee is enticing, to say the least. Not only are the Brewers punchless against righty pitching (88 wRC+), but they strike out at a whopping 26 percent clip against righties, by far the worst mark in baseball. Martinez hasn't been a strikeout machine this season, netting a K/9 rate of just 7.0. However, he has a history of missing more bats (9.2 K/9 in 2015), and he whiffed a season-high eight hitters (to go along with eight scoreless innings) when he last faced Milwaukee in late May, so there's still decent upside here..Carlos Martinez..owns a 1.46 ERA in his past seven starts,
Boyd had a 3.38 ERA through his first four starts, but he now sits with a 6.44 mark after giving up 13 runs in his past two turns. He took a positive step in not issuing a walk, as he had walked 11 through 25 2/3 innings prior to this start, but control isn?t everything. With a lifetime 7.17 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 86 2/3 big league innings, the lefty has a long way to go
CARDINALS AT BREWERS
PLAY: CARDINALS -1
St. Louis righty Carlos Martinez continues to do a solid job for the Cardinals. He owns a big edge in today?s matchup over Milwaukee?s Chase Anderson. There?s certainly a price to pay in terms of the betting line, but I believe there?s ample reason to back the Redbirds today.
Anderson has been really awful lately, and he actually got kind of lucky last start as a breeze blowing in at Busch Stadium probably saved him at least two homers. Milwaukee has gotten some better than expected performances from a couple of their largely unheralded starters, but Anderson has been disappointing. I think you can make a case that he?s not even a #5 starter at this point.
Carlos Martinez is just 7-6 for the Cardinals, but he?s pitching much better ball than that middle of the road record might indicate. He?s had seven straight starts that have graded out as average or better. Martinez no longer just rears back and tries to blow away the opposition. He?s become a quality pitcher who can now go deeper into games and rarely beats himself in the process. Martinez is now at the point where when he gets the baseball every fifth day, there?s a very good chance he?ll get to the seventh inning and will give his team a good chance to record a win.
The Brewers have actually played a bit better than I anticipated, despite the fact they?re nine games below .500. They?re a winning team for the season to date at Miller Park, and they?re not the pushovers I though they might be prior to the season. The Cardinals are just 44-42, so there?s little question they?re at least a mild disappointment as we head toward the All-Star break. The problem for the Redbirds has been close games. When a team is +78 net runs through 86 games, they ought to be better than just two games above breakeven. But that run differential also suggests that this is a team capable of getting hot, and I like the fact they?re playing as well as they are on the road.
I definitely like the idea of backing Martinez in a matchup with Anderson. So I?m going to split the ticket on this game, with a split on the steep money line as well the close to even money runs line, and I?ll make the Cardinals today?s free play.
Jose Quintana-The Braves have arguably the worst lineup in baseball. It's particularly brutal against left-handed pitching, as the team's 67 wRC+, .273 wOBA and .090 ISO all rank either worst or second-worst in baseball. Quintana is coming off a rough June (5.51 ERA), but he twirled seven innings of one-run ball his last time out and owns a 2.92 ERA at home this season. He should have little trouble carving through this Braves lineup.
The Rays have hammered left-handed pitching this season. But right-handed pitching? Not so much. They currently sport an 88 wRC+ versus righties with a bloated 25 percent strikeout rate. That puts Rick Porcello in a nice spot Saturday.
Matt Moore has looked good of late, holding a 2.43 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his past five starts. With a matchup against Boston coming up, however, it might be best to give the left-hander a breather and stick him on the bench. The Red Sox have mashed lefties this season, putting up a .349 wOBA against them. It also doesn't help that Moore has posted a 6.43 ERA away from Tropicana Field this year.
The development of Perdomo?s sinker has given him a legitimate weapon, and he boasts one of the Majors? highest ground-ball rates over the past month, as a result. The Rule 5 pick has tossed six frames in three of his four starts.
Jeff Banister had previously stated unequivocally that Martinez would start on Saturday, but with Cole Hamels failing to go five innings -- marking the sixth straight game that a starter has failed to go five -- I suspect that the Rangers wanted someone who they felt gave them a better shot of eating innings than Martinez would.
Lohse, 37, joined the Texas organization on a minor league deal earlier in the season and has been working at the Triple-A level. Over 58 2/3 innings through ten starts, he has put up a rather unsightly 5.06 ERA, though a 61.4% strand rate isn?t doing him any favors.
While Lohse?s minor league performance doesn?t inspire a ton of confidence, the Rangers are in need of rotation arms and will see what he has left in the tank. And there?s at least some reason to hope that the veteran can deliver useful innings for a big league staff.
Across his 15 MLB campaigns, Lohse owns a 4.37 ERA with 5.8 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. His earned run average ballooned to 5.85 last year, but that broke a string of four consecutive years in which Lohse?s ERA never drifted above the mid-3?s. Beyond that, the underlying peripherals looked much the same as ever and Lohse was still working at his customary ~89 mph level with the fastball.
Dodgers -1.5 -115
I really like what I saw from McCarthy in his last start..he was rock solid and facing the Padres lineup sets up for another solid outing...Dodgers have been playing well and closing out this series on w high not the next few days is crucial...LA lit it up last night with the long ball..Turner, Grandal and Gonzalez all go yard early in that only..Dodgers had a ton of hits and I expect that type of game here against Perdomo...Perdomo has a 7.93 ERA and enjoyed one of his better games his last time out..I think the success here is short lived...Dodgers saw him back in late May and lit him up..Dodgers will be looking to build off
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11?
The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (6-9, 3.30 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. Atlanta on Monday, allowing two runs off five scattered hits to go along with eight K?s over 7.2 innings in the victory. Eickhoff is quietly surging into the break as he hasn?t given up more than three earned runs in a single start since May 28th (note that over his last seven starts, Eickhoff has posted an impressive 41:15 K:BB in 44 innings to go along with a very respectable 2.25 ERA). The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (0-3, 3.03) who took a loss vs. the Giants on Monday despite allowing just three runs off four hits over six innings. Anderson will now look to secure his first victory of the season and improve upon his already impressive 2.50 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors field. With these two ?under the radar? hurlers squaring off, we think the UNDER is indeed worthy of a second look in this particular match-up.
Marlins at Reds
Play: Over 8?
Lamb gets the start for the Reds and is 1-5 with a 5.43 ERA this season. The Cincy southpaw has been awful on the road this season with an 8.51 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP and Lamb got rocked at Washington in his most recent start. Conley gets the start for the Marlins and has been putting up some decent numbers but he also faced the Braves twice in his three prior starts. In 2 of his last 3 outings that have not come against Atlanta, Conley has given up 5 earned runs in the start. None of Lamb?s last three starts have resulted in an under and the over is 9-3 in Miami?s Saturday games this season. Also, the Marlins are 18-11 to the over in day games this year. The Reds are also 18-11 to the over in day games this season. After yesterday?s pitchers duel, look for the hot hitting to resume. Cincinnati had averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before scoring only once yesterday. The Marlins have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last dozen games and the Reds bullpen has been awful this season.
San Diego @ LOS ANGELES
Brandon McCarthy was brilliant in his first game back in well over a year last week against the Rockies. McCarthy struck out eight batters over five full and we suspect the Dodgers will stretch him out even a little more today. It's a nice story but McCarthy is not Clayton Kershaw yet he's priced like him today. We are not willing to put that much stock into one start against a Colorado team that couldn't hit a beach ball in that series. In his rehab starts, McCarthy was tagged for seven runs in 11 innings. What we have here is an overreaction to McCarthy?s great return but he?s 33 years old and he?s very unlikely to go more than six innings here no matter how good he is. Oh, and by the way, his counterpart is so much better than his surface stats suggest.
The future is bright for Luis Perdomo. His ugly surface stats (7.93 ERA) have him underpriced, which is something we are going to try and take advantage of. Perdomo has filthy stuff with a four-pitch arsenal. In Perdomo's last start, he held the D-Backs to two runs on nine hits while striking out five in six innings of work. We like that bulldog mentality and we also like that he?s capable of getting out of jams on his own with 53 K's in 59 innings. Perdomo?s .402 batting average against on batted balls in play (BABIP) is an extremely unlucky number that is sure to improve. In six appearances in June, including four starts, Perdomo?s high ERA was the result of a 38% hit rate, 58% strand rate and 43% hr/f more than anything else. His underlying skills as a starter were outstanding with 8.4 K?s/9 with a 62% groundball rate. In fact, he was the only starter in the majors in June who combined a 12.0%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss rate % against it), Perdomo is worth playing 100% of the time at prices like this. Not many have even heard of him, let alone know how good he is. This is without question one of the biggest overlays of the season so far. A must play.
L.A. Angels +108 over BALTIMORE
The Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors and that alone makes them worthy of taking back a tag here. L.A. has won four straight while scoring 34 runs in those games. We also get a huge edge on the mound with Nick Tropeano over Yovani Gallardo. Tropeano is 3-2 in 11 starts with a 3.28 ERA. It?s a shaky sample but he did the same thing in 38 innings last year. Sharp improvements in Tropeano?s K-rate and control are well-supported by his strong swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike spikes. Tropeano?s solid fastball sets up his plus secondary pitches. All the components are all there for the great value that Tropeano offers. The only thing missing is MLB IP at this point but we're suggesting to buy him up at a low price. We can understand why the Angels were relying on him for a good year.
Since his return from the DL, Yovani Gallardo is 2-0 in four starts. That?s all because of run support and not his skills. Here?s a guy with a WHIP of 1.64, an xERA of 5.38, a 6% swing and miss rate and one of the lowest velocity fastballs in the game at 88.6 MLB. Gallardo is good at issuing walks, he?s good at being taken deep and if the Orioles weren?t paying him a god damn fortune, he would likely be in the press box making hotel reservations for the Orioles next trip. Gallardo is one of the five worst starters in baseball and he?ll now face a team that is seeing beach balls at the plate. It should be fun.
