07:10 PM [960] MIA MARLINS -152 ( J DEGROM -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
08:10 PM [964] COL ROCKIES -1.5 -105 ( M WISLER -R / T ANDERSON -L )
07:05 PM [968] TOTAL u9-105 (CLE INDIANS vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( J TOMLIN -R / K GAUSMAN -R )
07:10 PM [970] HOU ASTROS -182 ( J WEAVER -R / C MCHUGH -R )
09:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS -105 ( D SMYLY -L / K GRAVEMAN -R )
1 unit bet pays 18 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-112, -34.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The only starting pitcher who can better Scherzer's 11.4 K/9 is Fernandez, who registers a 13.3 K/9, the highest whiff rate since Randy Johnson posted a 13.4 K/9 in 2001. The Miami righty has also surrendered one or zero runs in nine of his last 12 starts (1.80 ERA). The Mets' lineup..are still below average against righties while fanning at a 23 percent clip. In fact, when Fernandez last faced the Mets in early June, he tossed seven shutout innings and racked up a season-high 14 K's. The lone negative here is that Jacob deGrom is toeing the rubber for the Mets on Saturday, meaning a win is no sure thing.
Speaking of deGrom, the Mets' right-hander is coming off his best start of the season, a one-hit shutout against the Phillies. A matchup against a Marlins team that has been ho-hum against right-handers this year (95 wRC+) puts deGrom in a good spot, though the ceiling is somewhat limited. The Marlins have been the second-hardest NL team to strike out this year (19 percent), and deGrom's 8.7 K/9 pales in comparison to what Scherzer and Fernandez bring to the table.
Chris Sale finds himself in a similar spot to deGrom. Now that he's pitching more to contact, he doesn't miss enough bats these days to give him a super high ceiling. In fact, the lefty has yet to rack up double-digit whiffs in a game this season after doing so 13 times in 2015. Although the Tigers haven't been particularly threatening against lefties this year (96 wRC+), it's still a right-handed heavy lineup with plenty of thump.
there is some talk of teams making a blockbuster trade for Sale...Detroit might just stay pat tho...As a player, [Detroit manager] Ausmus said, he was part of some teams that made big-splash trades at the deadline and other teams that decided to stick with the players on the roster. In 1993, Ausmus was playing for Triple-A Colorado Springs when the Colorado Rockies shipped him to the San Diego Padres in a five-player trade. The Padres immediately promoted Ausmus and flew him to Wrigley Field to join the team on the road.
"I walked in during the middle of the game -- it was a day game -- and Tony Gwynn was in the middle of a five-hit game, and Andy Benes had a shutout going," Ausmus said. "And I played the next day."
------------
The obvious caveats apply with rookie Tyler Glasnow, as his control has been an issue (4.9 B/9 at Triple-A) and he has only one big league start under his belt (in which the Cardinals hit him for four runs in 5 1/3 innings. That said, we also know his potential is great. Glasnow is in a great spot Saturday, facing a Phillies team that can't hit right-handed pitching (81 wRC+) and features a healthy 22 percent whiff rate.
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts at Camden Yards. Despite a lack of consistency over the last couple of seasons (management shuttling back-and-forth from Triple-A Norfolk), Gausman improved upon his strikeout, walk, swing strike and ground ball rates last season.
Gausman's fastball induced a 21% strikeout rate last year (18th best among 95 qualified starters) and he remains a prime candidate for a breakout second half in 2016. Gausman's 3.78 xFIP (3.80 xFIP in 2015) is backed by a 22.1% K%, 5.0% BB% and a 17.1% K-BB%.
Gausman is also supported by a very good Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, together with a 2.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at night and a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin toes the rubber with a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five career starts against the Orioles, including yielding a combined 10 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Camden Yards.
Weaver?s fastball, the slowest in the Majors this season among non-knuckleball pitchers, showed its most life of the season in Sunday?s 8-1 win over the White Sox. He hit 87.5 mph as he worked his way through seven innings of one-run ball.
Under is 26-11 in HOU last 37 overall.
Houston Astros are 22-4 in McHugh?s last 26 starts against the AL West.
Colin McHugh, a free agent in 62 percent of leagues, gets a home start against the Angels. Although the Angels' offense has been red-hot so far in July, posting a .362 wOBA in 16 games, it has been middle-of-the-road against righties this season. McHugh has been pitching some of his best ball over the last month, as he sports a 2.41 ERA over his last six outings.
Over is 34-16-3 in MIN last 53 overall.
under is 9-1 Price's last 10 starts
Under is 16-5-1 in NYM last 22 road games.
Under is 21-7-2 in NYM last 30 overall.
This one should be a classic 2-1 type pitcher?s duel. Jose Fernandez has a career 1.46 ERA in his park and a 1.53 ERA at home this year, with his home starts averaging just 5.5 rpg. Jacob deGrom has a solid 2.30 ERA on the road and his road starts have averaged just 5.00 rpg, plus he has a strong 1.46 ERA in his career during the month of July. Fernandez has a 1.00 ERA in three career home starts vs the Mets and in his lone start vs them this year we saw a 1-0 final. deGrom has a 1.89 ERA in three career starts in this park and should have another good showing here. Should see no more than five runs in this one. [I just wish Ted Barrett wasn't the home plate ump today!]
Hottest pitcher: Mike Leake, Cardinals (7-7, 4.00 ERA)
St. Louis outlasted Los Angeles in 16 innings on Friday night to win its fifth straight game, as the Cardinals turn to the veteran Leake this evening. Leake has struck out 21 batters in his past two starts against the Brewers and Padres, while allowing a total of two earned runs in those two victories. The Cardinals have compiled a 3-6 record at home when Leake takes the mound, but the right-hander defeated the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in mid-May as a +125 road underdog.
Coldest pitcher: John Lackey, Cubs (7-6, 3.75 ERA)
Chicago is getting back on track after stumbling to finish of the first half by winning five of its first seven games out of the break. However, things haven?t worked out well lately for Lackey, who has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in his last three outings, while the Cubs are 1-5 in his past six starts overall. One of Lackey?s best starts this season came against Milwaukee, tonight?s opponent, scattering four hits and allowing one earned run in six innings of a 2-1 victory on May 18.
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas
No team has struggled more than the Giants since the All Star break but the Rangers come in a close second. The SF Giants owned MLB?s best record at the break (57-37) but have yet to win since play resumed, going 0-6. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 54-36 at the break (up 5 1/2 games in the AL West) and owned MLB?s best moneyline mark at plus-$2,422. However, Texas is 1-6 since the break, with its lead cut to 2 1/2 games over the Astros. Texas remains the moneyline leader (plus-$1,932 to Baltimore?s plus-$1,493) but Texas backers are down almost $500 in the team's seven games since play resumed after a four-day break.
As all know, the Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series (beat the Mets last season, after losing a seven-game series to the Giants in 2014) but KC has been behind the eight-ball most of the 2016 season and enters this contest just 48-47, EIGHT games out of the AL Central lead, as well as FIVE games back of the second wild card spot with FOUR teams a between them and the Blue Jays (current No. 2 wild card club). Saturday?s pitching matchup features Cole Hamels (10-2, 3.00 ERA) and Yordano Ventura (6-7, 4.97 ERA).
Ventura hasn't won since blanking the Tigers over 6.1 innings of a 10-3 win back on June 17, going 0-3 over his four starts since that win (Royals are 0-4), with an ugly 6.55 ERA in those outings (it?s 8.40 in his three losses!). Ventura has made four career starts against Texas, going 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA but does have 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings against the Rangers. Some good news is that while Ventura walked a major league-leading 33 in his first nine starts (6.10 per nine innings), he has allowed just EIGHT walks over his last nine outings (a span of in 52.2 innings), which is 1.37 per nine innings, a ratio ranks third-lowest in the AL during that span.
Texas counters with All Star Cole Hamels, who will be making his first-ever regular-season start at Kauffman Stadium (note: he pitched a perfect inning at the 2012 All-Star game in Kansas City while with the Phillies). The Rangers are 14-5 in Hamels' starts this season (plus-$855 moneyline mark ranks eight in 2016), including winning SEVEN of his last eight. Some may remember that the Rangers lost Hamels? first two starts after being acquired from Philly last year but they then won his final 10 regular season starts. Doing the math, Texas is now 24-5 over Hamels? last 29 regular season starts.
Kenta Maeda has been a big..asset this season, but I'm staying away from him Saturday.... Not only has the righty battled inconsistency lately, failing to make it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three starts, but he draws a Cardinals lineup that has torched right-handed pitching this season, sporting a 118 wRC+ that's tops in the National League.
Anderson makes his first career appearance against the Braves in this contest. He is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP over 32.1 innings in five starts at Coors Field.
Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +130
Seattle sends Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound who has been sharp allowing just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. In 26 1/3 innings of work he allowed just 23 hits and had a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto sends R.A. Dickey who when pitching in day games this year has a ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.38. Dickey has struggled against Seattle as in 5 career starts he has a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.42. Iwakuma has owned Toronto in the 4 times he faced them posting an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.96. In his career when Iwakuma has allowed 1 earned run or less in his last start his team is 27-13 in his next start with the opposition averaging just 2.8 runs a game. It also must be noted that when Iwakuma starts on the road over the last 2 seasons his team is 22-10. Lastly Seattle is now 14-6 this year vs the AL East after last nights 2-1 win. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
Coldest team: Rangers (2-8 last 10)
The AL West race is tightening up at the top between the two Lone Star State squads as Texas? advantage is 2 ? games over Houston heading into Saturday. The Rangers were swept by the Angels earlier this week, while being unable to turn things around in Friday?s 3-1 loss at Kansas City to drop its fourth straight game. Things have fallen apart on the road recently, as the Rangers own a dreadful 2-10 record in its last 12 games away from Arlington, while allowing at least six runs in seven of those defeats. The only hope for Texas to turn things around lays on the shoulders of Cole Hamels, who heads to the hill tonight owning a 10-2 record, as the Rangers are 7-1 in his past eight starts overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (10-0 last 10)
All games but two finished UNDER the total in MLB last night as Baltimore extended its streak to 10 consecutive UNDERS in its victory over Cleveland. The Orioles actually provided an offensive spark they didn?t see on their recent road trip by scoring five early runs in a 5-1 triumph. Baltimore?s pitching has allowed two runs in its past two wins since going through a four-game losing streak, while allowing two runs or less in five of their previous six victories. Kevin Gausman heads to the hill for Baltimore tonight against Cleveland, as eight of his last 10 starts have finished UNDER the total.
08:10 PM [964] COL ROCKIES -1.5 -105 ( M WISLER -R / T ANDERSON -L )
07:05 PM [968] TOTAL u9-105 (CLE INDIANS vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( J TOMLIN -R / K GAUSMAN -R )
07:10 PM [970] HOU ASTROS -182 ( J WEAVER -R / C MCHUGH -R )
09:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS -105 ( D SMYLY -L / K GRAVEMAN -R )
1 unit bet pays 18 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-112, -34.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The only starting pitcher who can better Scherzer's 11.4 K/9 is Fernandez, who registers a 13.3 K/9, the highest whiff rate since Randy Johnson posted a 13.4 K/9 in 2001. The Miami righty has also surrendered one or zero runs in nine of his last 12 starts (1.80 ERA). The Mets' lineup..are still below average against righties while fanning at a 23 percent clip. In fact, when Fernandez last faced the Mets in early June, he tossed seven shutout innings and racked up a season-high 14 K's. The lone negative here is that Jacob deGrom is toeing the rubber for the Mets on Saturday, meaning a win is no sure thing.
Speaking of deGrom, the Mets' right-hander is coming off his best start of the season, a one-hit shutout against the Phillies. A matchup against a Marlins team that has been ho-hum against right-handers this year (95 wRC+) puts deGrom in a good spot, though the ceiling is somewhat limited. The Marlins have been the second-hardest NL team to strike out this year (19 percent), and deGrom's 8.7 K/9 pales in comparison to what Scherzer and Fernandez bring to the table.
Chris Sale finds himself in a similar spot to deGrom. Now that he's pitching more to contact, he doesn't miss enough bats these days to give him a super high ceiling. In fact, the lefty has yet to rack up double-digit whiffs in a game this season after doing so 13 times in 2015. Although the Tigers haven't been particularly threatening against lefties this year (96 wRC+), it's still a right-handed heavy lineup with plenty of thump.
there is some talk of teams making a blockbuster trade for Sale...Detroit might just stay pat tho...As a player, [Detroit manager] Ausmus said, he was part of some teams that made big-splash trades at the deadline and other teams that decided to stick with the players on the roster. In 1993, Ausmus was playing for Triple-A Colorado Springs when the Colorado Rockies shipped him to the San Diego Padres in a five-player trade. The Padres immediately promoted Ausmus and flew him to Wrigley Field to join the team on the road.
"I walked in during the middle of the game -- it was a day game -- and Tony Gwynn was in the middle of a five-hit game, and Andy Benes had a shutout going," Ausmus said. "And I played the next day."
------------
The obvious caveats apply with rookie Tyler Glasnow, as his control has been an issue (4.9 B/9 at Triple-A) and he has only one big league start under his belt (in which the Cardinals hit him for four runs in 5 1/3 innings. That said, we also know his potential is great. Glasnow is in a great spot Saturday, facing a Phillies team that can't hit right-handed pitching (81 wRC+) and features a healthy 22 percent whiff rate.
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts at Camden Yards. Despite a lack of consistency over the last couple of seasons (management shuttling back-and-forth from Triple-A Norfolk), Gausman improved upon his strikeout, walk, swing strike and ground ball rates last season.
Gausman's fastball induced a 21% strikeout rate last year (18th best among 95 qualified starters) and he remains a prime candidate for a breakout second half in 2016. Gausman's 3.78 xFIP (3.80 xFIP in 2015) is backed by a 22.1% K%, 5.0% BB% and a 17.1% K-BB%.
Gausman is also supported by a very good Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, together with a 2.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at night and a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin toes the rubber with a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five career starts against the Orioles, including yielding a combined 10 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Camden Yards.
Weaver?s fastball, the slowest in the Majors this season among non-knuckleball pitchers, showed its most life of the season in Sunday?s 8-1 win over the White Sox. He hit 87.5 mph as he worked his way through seven innings of one-run ball.
Under is 26-11 in HOU last 37 overall.
Houston Astros are 22-4 in McHugh?s last 26 starts against the AL West.
Colin McHugh, a free agent in 62 percent of leagues, gets a home start against the Angels. Although the Angels' offense has been red-hot so far in July, posting a .362 wOBA in 16 games, it has been middle-of-the-road against righties this season. McHugh has been pitching some of his best ball over the last month, as he sports a 2.41 ERA over his last six outings.
Over is 34-16-3 in MIN last 53 overall.
under is 9-1 Price's last 10 starts
Under is 16-5-1 in NYM last 22 road games.
Under is 21-7-2 in NYM last 30 overall.
This one should be a classic 2-1 type pitcher?s duel. Jose Fernandez has a career 1.46 ERA in his park and a 1.53 ERA at home this year, with his home starts averaging just 5.5 rpg. Jacob deGrom has a solid 2.30 ERA on the road and his road starts have averaged just 5.00 rpg, plus he has a strong 1.46 ERA in his career during the month of July. Fernandez has a 1.00 ERA in three career home starts vs the Mets and in his lone start vs them this year we saw a 1-0 final. deGrom has a 1.89 ERA in three career starts in this park and should have another good showing here. Should see no more than five runs in this one. [I just wish Ted Barrett wasn't the home plate ump today!]
Hottest pitcher: Mike Leake, Cardinals (7-7, 4.00 ERA)
St. Louis outlasted Los Angeles in 16 innings on Friday night to win its fifth straight game, as the Cardinals turn to the veteran Leake this evening. Leake has struck out 21 batters in his past two starts against the Brewers and Padres, while allowing a total of two earned runs in those two victories. The Cardinals have compiled a 3-6 record at home when Leake takes the mound, but the right-hander defeated the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in mid-May as a +125 road underdog.
Coldest pitcher: John Lackey, Cubs (7-6, 3.75 ERA)
Chicago is getting back on track after stumbling to finish of the first half by winning five of its first seven games out of the break. However, things haven?t worked out well lately for Lackey, who has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in his last three outings, while the Cubs are 1-5 in his past six starts overall. One of Lackey?s best starts this season came against Milwaukee, tonight?s opponent, scattering four hits and allowing one earned run in six innings of a 2-1 victory on May 18.
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas
No team has struggled more than the Giants since the All Star break but the Rangers come in a close second. The SF Giants owned MLB?s best record at the break (57-37) but have yet to win since play resumed, going 0-6. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 54-36 at the break (up 5 1/2 games in the AL West) and owned MLB?s best moneyline mark at plus-$2,422. However, Texas is 1-6 since the break, with its lead cut to 2 1/2 games over the Astros. Texas remains the moneyline leader (plus-$1,932 to Baltimore?s plus-$1,493) but Texas backers are down almost $500 in the team's seven games since play resumed after a four-day break.
As all know, the Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series (beat the Mets last season, after losing a seven-game series to the Giants in 2014) but KC has been behind the eight-ball most of the 2016 season and enters this contest just 48-47, EIGHT games out of the AL Central lead, as well as FIVE games back of the second wild card spot with FOUR teams a between them and the Blue Jays (current No. 2 wild card club). Saturday?s pitching matchup features Cole Hamels (10-2, 3.00 ERA) and Yordano Ventura (6-7, 4.97 ERA).
Ventura hasn't won since blanking the Tigers over 6.1 innings of a 10-3 win back on June 17, going 0-3 over his four starts since that win (Royals are 0-4), with an ugly 6.55 ERA in those outings (it?s 8.40 in his three losses!). Ventura has made four career starts against Texas, going 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA but does have 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings against the Rangers. Some good news is that while Ventura walked a major league-leading 33 in his first nine starts (6.10 per nine innings), he has allowed just EIGHT walks over his last nine outings (a span of in 52.2 innings), which is 1.37 per nine innings, a ratio ranks third-lowest in the AL during that span.
Texas counters with All Star Cole Hamels, who will be making his first-ever regular-season start at Kauffman Stadium (note: he pitched a perfect inning at the 2012 All-Star game in Kansas City while with the Phillies). The Rangers are 14-5 in Hamels' starts this season (plus-$855 moneyline mark ranks eight in 2016), including winning SEVEN of his last eight. Some may remember that the Rangers lost Hamels? first two starts after being acquired from Philly last year but they then won his final 10 regular season starts. Doing the math, Texas is now 24-5 over Hamels? last 29 regular season starts.
Kenta Maeda has been a big..asset this season, but I'm staying away from him Saturday.... Not only has the righty battled inconsistency lately, failing to make it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three starts, but he draws a Cardinals lineup that has torched right-handed pitching this season, sporting a 118 wRC+ that's tops in the National League.
Anderson makes his first career appearance against the Braves in this contest. He is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP over 32.1 innings in five starts at Coors Field.
Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +130
Seattle sends Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound who has been sharp allowing just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. In 26 1/3 innings of work he allowed just 23 hits and had a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto sends R.A. Dickey who when pitching in day games this year has a ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.38. Dickey has struggled against Seattle as in 5 career starts he has a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.42. Iwakuma has owned Toronto in the 4 times he faced them posting an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.96. In his career when Iwakuma has allowed 1 earned run or less in his last start his team is 27-13 in his next start with the opposition averaging just 2.8 runs a game. It also must be noted that when Iwakuma starts on the road over the last 2 seasons his team is 22-10. Lastly Seattle is now 14-6 this year vs the AL East after last nights 2-1 win. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
Coldest team: Rangers (2-8 last 10)
The AL West race is tightening up at the top between the two Lone Star State squads as Texas? advantage is 2 ? games over Houston heading into Saturday. The Rangers were swept by the Angels earlier this week, while being unable to turn things around in Friday?s 3-1 loss at Kansas City to drop its fourth straight game. Things have fallen apart on the road recently, as the Rangers own a dreadful 2-10 record in its last 12 games away from Arlington, while allowing at least six runs in seven of those defeats. The only hope for Texas to turn things around lays on the shoulders of Cole Hamels, who heads to the hill tonight owning a 10-2 record, as the Rangers are 7-1 in his past eight starts overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (10-0 last 10)
All games but two finished UNDER the total in MLB last night as Baltimore extended its streak to 10 consecutive UNDERS in its victory over Cleveland. The Orioles actually provided an offensive spark they didn?t see on their recent road trip by scoring five early runs in a 5-1 triumph. Baltimore?s pitching has allowed two runs in its past two wins since going through a four-game losing streak, while allowing two runs or less in five of their previous six victories. Kevin Gausman heads to the hill for Baltimore tonight against Cleveland, as eight of his last 10 starts have finished UNDER the total.
