Saturdays TRENDS.

[TJBELL]

Saturday, September 3rd

Bowling Green at Wisconsin, 12:00 EST ESPN
Bowling Green - 5-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Wisconsin - 15-5 Over as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Ohio U at Northwestern, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Ohio U - 1-5 ATS in September
Northwestern - 7-0 ATS at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 points

(TC) Western Michigan at Virginia, 6:00 EST
Western Michigan - 0-6 ATS on grass fields
Virginia - 9-3 ATS in home games

Ball State at Iowa, 12:00 EST
Ball State - 3-8 ATS in road games
Iowa - 11-1 ATS in home games

Kent State at Michigan State, 12:00 EST
Kent State - 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Michigan State - 1-8 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Miami OH at Ohio State, 12:00 EST ABC
Miami OH - 14-5 ATS on grass fields
Ohio State - 2-7 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 17 points

(TC) Northern Illinois at Michigan, 3:30 EST ABC
Northern Illinois - 5-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Michigan - 6-0 Over as a favorite

(TC) South Florida at Penn State, 3:30 EST ESPNU
South Florida - 11-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Penn State - 24-9 Under vs. non-conference opponents

Duke at East Carolina, 1:00 EST
Duke - 7-17 ATS as a favorite
East Carolina - 4-0 Under vs. ACC opponents

(TC) UAB at Tennessee, 12:30 EST
UAB - 28-14 ATS as an underdog
Tennessee - 5-13 ATS as a favorite

(TC) Rutgers at Illinois, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Rutgers - 12-4 ATS as an underdog
Illinois - 6-15 ATS last 21 lined games

Colorado State at Colorado, 3:30 EST
Colorado State - 39-23 ATS as an underdog
Colorado - 1-5 ATS as a home favorite

(TC) Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 8:00 EST ABC
Notre Dame - 5-1 Under as a road underdog
Pittsburgh - 27-44 ATS first half of the season

Boise State at Georgia, 5:30 EST ESPN
Boise State - 14-6 ATS as an underdog
Georgia - 14-5 Under in September

Navy at Maryland, 6:00 EST
Navy - 14-5 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Maryland - 10-2 Under as a favorite

Wyoming at Florida, 6:00 EST
Wyoming - 1-11 ATS away first two weeks of the season
Florida - Urban Meyer 15-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

(TC) Washington at Air Force, 3:30 EST ABC
Washington - 6-15 ATS last 21 lined games
Air Force - 16-5 Under in September

(TC) TCU at Oklahoma, 12:00 EST ABC
TCU - 11-0 Over in September
Oklahoma - 2-11 ATS as a home favorite

(TC) Georgia Tech at Auburn, 8:45 EST ESPN
Georgia Tech - 12-4 ATS first two weeks of the season
Auburn - 6-17 ATS with a total of 42 points or less

(TC) Boston College at BYU, 3:30 EST ABC
Boston College - 7-2 ATS on grass fields
BYU - 5-1 Under in September

Texas A&M at Clemson, 8:00 EST ABC
Texas A&M - 2-8 ATS in road games
Clemson - 8-2 Over first two weeks of the season

Baylor at SMU, 8:00 EST
Baylor - 11-4 ATS on grass fields
SMU - 6-0 Under as an underdog

UCLA at San Diego State, 10:00 EST ESPN2
UCLA - 11-3 Under as a favorite
San Diego State - 18-6 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) USC at Hawaii, 7:00 EST ESPN2
USC - 8-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Hawaii - 7-2 Over as an underdog

Added Games:

Arkansas State at Missouri, 12:00 EST
Arkansas State - 15-8 ATS first month of the season
Missouri - 8-2 Under as a favorite

Middle Tenn State at Alabama, 7:00 EST
Mid Tenn State - 8-2 ATS first two weeks of the season
Alabama - 5-1 Under in September

Florida Atlantic at Kansas, 7:00 EST
Florida Atlantic - 3-0 ATS on artificial turf last year
Kansas - 9-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents

LA Lafayette at Texas, 7:00 EST
LA Lafayette - 5-1 ATS first month of the season
Texas - 11-3 Over in September

(TC) Florida International at Kansas State, 2:00 EST
Florida Int - no trends available
Kansas State - 0-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

North Texas at LSU, 8:00 EST
North Texas - 1-7 ATS as an underdog
LSU - 6-1 ATS in September

(TC) UTEP at New Mexico State, 10:30 EST ESPNU
UTEP - 3-16 ATS away in September
New Mexico State - 11-2 ATS as a home underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[TJBELL]

Saturday's games
-- Bowling Green covered last nine games vs BCS squads (7-2 SU!!); they're 3-1 in last four as road dog. Wisconsin is 9-17-1 in last 27 tries as favorite in Mad City, 6-15 vs spread in non-league games since '99. .
-- Northwestern is 1-8 as home favorite since '01; they covered three of last ten home openers. Frank Solich makes debut with Bobcats, who are 3-7 as road dog last two years. Ohio has new offense and eight starters back on D.
-- Virginia is 8-3 as home fave last two years. Western Michigan is 7-9 as road dog since '01, 3-7 in non-MAC games. Cavaliers went to Kalamazoo and hammered Broncos 59-16 two years ago. Western has four starters back on OL, and senior QB.
-- Iowa is 14-2 vs spread in last sixteen games when favored by 10+ points, and are 18-4 in last 22 tries as home fave. Ball State covered three of last 11 as road dog. National media is on Hawkeye bandwagon, but they play rival Iowa State next and have just five starters back on defense.
-- Kent covered ten of last thirteen as underdog; they four starters back on OL and QB who has attended Alabama, as well as played some minor league baseball. Michigan State covered two of last 11 when spotting double digits at home- overall, they're 5-13 as home fave since '01.
-- Ohio State has covered 10 of last 12 home openers; they're 14-10 as home fave under Tressel. Miami, OH is 21-12 vs spread on grass; they covered eight of last 13 as road dog, seven of last ten road openers. Red Hawks have senior QB and four starters back on OL. .
-- Northern Illinois is 27-9 SU the last three years, 6-4 vs spread in last ten tries as road dog, 5-2 in last seven road openers. Michigan plays Notre Dame next; over last decade, they're 4-0 vs spread the week before playing ND. Wolverines covered six of last eight games vs MAC squads, and are 18-13 as home favorite last five years.
-- Penn State has whole OL and 17 starters back with senior QB, but Robinson is better runner than thrower; Lions are 3-5 as home fave last two years. South Florida covered one of last four openers; they're 6-8 as road dog the last four years, and have uncertainty at QB.
-- Duke is road favorite? They're 6-12 vs spread in last 18 non-ACC games, 0-2 as road favorite since '98. Blue Devils lost four starters on OL, but have junior QB who has made 18 career starts. East Carolina is 3-20 SU last two years; they have covered last four tries as home dog. Pirates have new coach, new QB; they are 4-9-1 vs spread in non-league games.
-- Tennessee is 9-17 as home favorite last four years; their next game is vs Florida. UAB has senior QB with 27 career starts, and four starters back on OL. Blazers lost bowl game 59-40 last year; they're 5-9 in last fourteen non-league games.
-- Rutgers has 17 starters back, is 9-6-1 in last sixteen tries as road dog, 18-8 vs spread in non-Big East games, but how often have they gotten just pair of points on road? Illinois has new coach; they've covered one of last five non-league games and six of last 21 openers, overall. Illini has new QB and no senior starters on OL.
-- Underdog covered 12 of last 15 Colorado State-Colorado games, with four of last five decided by seven or less points. Rams are 15-6 in last 21 tries as road dog. Buffs 9-14 vs spread in non-Big 12 games since '98, 1-8 in last nine home openers. Both sides have 17 starters back. Last year, Buffs outgained State 447-372, but had 403 passing yards- not much balance.
-- Pair of big-name coaches square off as Notre Dame tries for ninth cover in last 11 meetings with Pitt, which beat Irish 41-38 last year, and is 4-2 as home favorite last two years, and 8-4 vs spread in last dozen home openers. ND 6-4 as recent road dog, but they've covered just two of last 10 road openers. Michigan is on deck for Irish, so tough start to season for ND team with its whole OL back this season.
-- Boise State 6-2-1 vs spread last nine tries as road dog (9-3-1 last 13 as dog overall). Georgia covered just three of last 11 home openers; they're 2-7 vs spread in last nine non-SEC home games, and face rival South Carolina next. Dawgs have all five starters back on OL, and QB with experience, but he never started, just relieved in 26 games.
-- Navy is 18-7 SU last two years; they covered eight of 11 as road dog under Johnson. Maryland is 22-10 as favorite under Friedgen; they have Clemson next- but they better not look ahead. Both sides breaking in new QB's.
-- Urban Meyer's debut in Florida comes vs Wyoming team his Utah club beat 45-28/47-17 last two years. Cowboys might be best squad in MWC this year, with senior QB; they're 14-7 in last 21 tries as double digit dog. Meyer covered 21 of last 30 as favorite, 12 of last 17 at home. Gators covered last four openers, but are
7-10 as home favorite since Spurrier.
-- Washington won one game last year, has its Pac-10 opener with Cal next; they're 11-21 in last 32 tries as home favorite. Willingham was 6-5 as home fave in South Bend. Huskies have 19 starters back; do you want 19 starters back from 1-10 team? Air Force 11-7 as a road dog since '99, but covered just one of last four lined openers.
-- TCU is 5-10 as road dog last seven years; they have senior QB who has started 12 times, and four senior starters on OL. Oklahoma has just nine starters back, uncertainty at QB. Sooners have just nine starters back; they covered only three of last dozen September home games, and have a new QB.
-- Georgia Tech upset Auburn 17-3 in Atlanta two years ago; Tigers are 8-12 vs spread in their last 20 non-SEC games; they have new RB's and new QB, so they're home until mid-October. Tech is 13-6 vs spread as road dog since '98; dogs are 11-5-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games.
-- Boston College covered 11 of last 16 road games, eight of last 12 on grass; they have all five starters back on OL. BYU covered seven of last nine home openers and eight of last 13 as underdog. Both sides have QB with at least ten starts.
-- Texas A&M waxed Clemson 27-6 last year, running ball for 324 yards, but they've covered just two of last 14 road openers, and two of 10 overall on foreign soil. Tigers just 3-9 vs spread last dozen home openers; both sides have quality senior QB's; Whitehurst started 28 times for Clemson, MacNeal 24 times for Aggies. .
-- Baylor won last eight games vs SMU, covered ten of last 11, but Bears lost last 24 road games; this is first time in five years they're road fave. Bears are 4-1 vs spread as favorite during that time. Mustangs have five starters back on OL, but unsettled QB situation.
-- UCLA covered 12 of last 18 non-Pac 10 road games; they're 5-3 as recent road favorite and have 15 starters back. Bruins won last three meetings vs San Diego State by combined score of 96-27 (32-9 avg); they had 410 yards in 33-10 win last year (205 rushing/ 205 passing). Aztecs are 3-11 as a recent home dog,
2-10-1 vs spread in this series; they have soph QB and only five starters back on defense.
-- USC beat Hawaii 61-32 in Coliseum two years ago; Warriors have new QB now, but four starters back on offensive line- they're 13-6 in last 19 tries as home dog. Trojans covered their road opener in seven of last eight seasons; they're 11-7 in last 18 tries as road favorite. Senior QB Leinart has no senior starters on OL in front of him.


-- Arkansas State covered six of last eight openers, but is just 12-16 as road dog and has only four starters back on offense. Missouri beat this team 52-20 last year and covered 11 of last 15 on grass (game is at Arrowhead, in KC). Tigers have only four starters back on defense, but have terrific senior QB. ASU has senior QB.
-- Middle Tennessee covered its first road game the last six years; they've 18 of 22 starters back and are 6-4 vs spread vs SEC foes. Alabama is 10-5 vs spread in last fifteen non-league games; they have sixteen starters back and senior QB, but are very young on OL.
-- Underdog was 6-1 vs spread in Florida Atlantic's lined games last year; they won last two road openers SU, but have just eight starters back, as last year's seniors were heart of FAU's first varsity team- they do have senior QB. Kansas is 4-3 as favorite under Mangino, and 6-3 in last nine tries vs non-Big 12 foes.
-- UL-Lafayette covered six of last seven road openers; they're 9-6 in last fifteen tries as road dog. Texas visits Ohio State next; they're 8-10 as recent home favorite.
-- Florida International has 18 starters back from last year, four senior starters on OL, but they lost 56-31 at New Mexico State, so this is huge step up for them, visiting K-State squad that was 33-17 as favorite, before going just 5-12 last two years (Still, 38-29 over seven years. Not bad.)Wildcats are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten openers.
-- North Texas covered just one of last six as road dog; they're 10-17 vs spread in last 27 games on grass. LSU has new coach, soph QB; in last three years, LSU was 12-6 as home fave, while Miles was 8-3 as home fave at Oklahoma State last three years. Tiger Stadium survived the hurricane, but renovations to upper deck still incomplete.
-- UTEP pummeled New Mexico State 45-0 last year, but now Mumme is in Las Cruces, so Aggies will throw early and often, put points on board; Miners covered just three of last 15 road openers. Aggies are 11-2 as home dog since '98, most of their guys were recruited to run option, not throw on every down. Average total in last three series games is 60.