Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):
Larry Nelson to beat Dave Barr -115 @
Five Dimes
Like a lot of matchups this week! Nelson withdrew after an opening 70 in his last start three weeks ago (he was two shots ahead of Barr at the time) citing an ailing neck as the reason. Given the storms in Tampa Bay that week, it was probably precaution as much as injury. While he has not won a title this year like Barr, his form has been good and he was a close 2nd to Quigley in the opening event of the year. With two good finishes in the last two years compared to no previous course apart from a missed cut in the 1998 Nissan Open for Barr, Nelson should have the edge in this match.
Hubert Green to beat Rodger Davis -115 @
Five Dimes
Green has beaten Davis in their last two starts and is much more suited to this tight, short course. He finished 12 shots ahead of Davis last year and that's enough for me.
Walter Hall to beat Seiji Ebihara +100 @
Five Dimes [6 units]
I don't understand this line. Yes, Hall's course form is poor, but Ebihara has never played this course until this week. Yes, Ebihara record his best finish on the Champions Tour last week with a top-10 finish, but Hall still finished three shots ahead of him. In fact, Hall has finished ahead of Ebihara in all seven of Ebihara's starts on the Champions Tour!
Hale Irwin to beat Tom Kite -120 @
SkyBet [-145 @ Five Dimes]
Partly a hedge play for the outrights - I can see Irwin winning this title if the outrights selections are denied - and partly a means of opposing Kite who has excellent course form, but has the pressures of being defending champion and was in much form in 2001 and 2002 than this year. He has only one top-10 finish from five starts in 2003 and that is no basis on which to challenge Irwin.
Fuzzy Zoeller to beat Gary McCord -115 @
Five Dimes [4 units]
Similar story with McCord. His course form is very impressive, but he had just finished 5th in the MasterCard Championship in 2001 and in 2002 he had just finished 2nd in the Audi Senior Classic. In his last 17 starts, McCord has recorded just one top-10 finish. His part-time approach to the Champions Tour looks to be catching up on him and will side with Zoeller who beat him in McCord's only other start this year and has a 12-month 11-2-0 h2h record in his favour as well.
Des Smyth to beat Tom Purtzer -115 @
Five Dimes [4 units]
Three good finishes in three starts and a 3rd place finish last year point to a good week from Purtzer. But Smyth has beaten him on both occasions that they have played in the same event this year and looks set for another good week this week.
