scottish soccer experiment: week of AUG 15th

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soccer 2003: 3 - 3 = - 4.67 units

as predicted, it was a tough first week as Celtic historically has a slow start in game ONE of a season.
The rangers didn't disappoint with a 4 - 0 win on the road.

NOW, about this experiment:

we parlay the TWO teams of celtic and the rangers to cut down on juice, since they are a cut above the rest in the scottish premier league.

PREDICTION: with 5 unit parlay wagers
doing this in 2001 - 2002 netted you +50.00 units
doing this in 2002 - 2003 netted you +60.00 units

and i'm not even talking about separate betting on celtic and the rangers with their GREAT home records either.

I predict we can hit +50 units or MORE this season at 5 units( my numer) in scottish soccer by parlaying these two teams, BARRING any significant change in recent history.

hell, even if you wanna do SMALL units, you'll be up at the end of the season.

let's see how it goes this week.

 

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next games we have :

16/08/03 Aberdeen - - - Rangers on the road.

and

16/08/03 Celtic at home- - - Dundee United

we'll parlay the two and put in a ML wager on Celtic.

apparently last week i read the sportsbooks wrong and thought celtic was at home and the Rangers were away......it cost me
-3.33 units but the parlay didn't come through anyways.

i WON'T make that mistake again.

using different sportsbooks fawking list soccer teams in different order sometimes depending on if they're a north american or offshore outfit.

wish Anders was here to help me out like he always did when i had probs figuring out home / away teams in soccer AND AFL....:shrug:

i'm surprised no one corrected me last week, oh well.

 

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additional :

bet against Motherwell on the road ALL season.

16/08/03 Livingston - - - Motherwell on road.

herein lies the opportunity.

 

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SECTION C: NEW SOCCER SYSTEM ANALYSIS PLAYS:
I'm just tracking these for one unit each:

English Premier League:

16/08 Portsmouth - Aston_Villa (Pick to cover)+0.5 -125
16/08 Man_Utd - Bolton (pick to cover)+2 -110
16/08 Liverpool (PTC -0.5 +109 ) - Chelsea
16/08 Leicester (PTC -121) - Southampton
16/08 Leeds - Newcastle (PTC - -0.5 +105)
16/08 Fulham (PTC -114) - Middlesbr
16/08 Charlton (PTC -0.5 +118) - Manchester_C
16/08 Blackburn - Wolverhampton (PTC +0.5 and +1 -111 )
16/08 Birmingham - Tottenham (PTC +108)
16/08 Arsenal (PTC -250 / 3 unit play!!!) - Everton
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recap scores:

FT Birmingham C. 1 - 0 Tottenham H. (loser)
FT Portsmouth 2 - 1 Aston Villa (loser)
FT Arsenal 2 - 1 Everton ( 3 unit winner)
FT Blackburn R. 5 - 1 Wolverhampton W.(loser)
FT Fulham 3 - 2 Middlesbrough (winner)
FT Leicester C. 2 - 2 Southampton (loser)
FT Manchester U. 4 - 0 Bolton W.(loser bolton +2)

15:00 FT Leeds United 2 : 2 Newcastle United
15:00 FT Charlton Athletic 0 : 3 Manchester City
17:00 FT Liverpool 1 : 2 Chelsea

 

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SECTION B : parlay tracker ( part 2)

gonna parlay:

1) rangers
2) celtic
3) arsenal@home
4) Man u @home

at 1 unit each

i'll see how it goes for the season. I may add a few teams when i research some more soccer leagues.....

 

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SECTION C: Scottish Premier Division

NEXT FIXTURES

16/08 Livingston( PICK TO COVER---HUGE!!!!) - Motherwell
16/08 Hibernian ( PTC / try to get a +number if you can) - Hearts
16/08 Kilmarnock( PTC AND THE UNDER 2) - Partick_Th
16/08 Celtic (PTC HUGE!!!! 3 unit play)- Dundee.U
16/08 Aberdeen - Rangers (PTC 2 unit play)
17/08
Dundee_FC (try to get a +1.5 for this game..) - Dunfermline(PTC)

again, the way that i see it, i don't see celtic OR the rangers losing anytime before christmas...dosn't mean they may draw 1 or 2 games.......

RECAP: scores

FT Aberdeen 2 - 3 Rangers (winner 2 unit play)
FT Celtic 5 - 0 Dundee United (winner 3 unit play)
FT Kilmarnock 2 - 1 Partick Thistle (winner / under loser)
FT Livingston 1 - 0 Motherwell (winner 2 unit play)

 

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SECTION C: German Bundesliga 1

16/08 Schalke (PTC) - FC_Cologne
16/08 Dortmund (PTC)- Munich_1860
16/08 Bayern_Munich(PTC---2 unit play!!!!) - Bochum
16/08 Leverkusen - Hannover (PTC)
16/08 Hansa_Rostock(PTC) - Frankfurt
16/08 Hertha - Freiburg ( STATS SAY A HUGE DRAW)
16/08 Borussia_MGB ( get the +1.5.....DRAW) - Stuttgart
16/08 Kaiserslautern (PTC / 2 unit play)- Werder_Bremen

16/08 Wolfsburg - Hamburger_SV
(STAYING AWAY FROM THIS GAME)
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scores recap:

FT Bayer Leverkusen 4 - 0 Hannover (loser)
FT Bayern Munich 2 - 0 Bochum (winner 2 unit play)
FT Borussia Dortmund 3 - 1 Munich 1860 (winner)
FT Hansa Rostock 3 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt (winner)
FT Hertha BSC 0 - 0 Freiburg
(WINNER HUGE DRAW CAME THROUGH!!!)
FT Kaiserslautern 0 - 1 Werder Bremen (loser 2 unit play)
FT Monchengladbach 0 - 1 Stuttgart (winner with the +1.5)

 

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dammit, my fave league has started again!!!!

SECTION C: Belgian Eerste Klasse

16/08 AA_Gent - Anderlecht (PASS)
16/08 Antwerp - Westerlo (PTC get the plus money)
16/08 Genk (PTC- 2 units) - Charleroi
16/08 Lierse - GBA (PASS)
16/08 Mons (PTC)- Mouscron
16/08 Beveren(PTC) - Sint_Truiden
17/08 LaLouviere - Heusden (new team in heusden----PASS)
17/08 Cercle_Brugge - Club_Brugge (PTC)
17/08 Standard - Lokeren (PTC - 2 units)
22/08 Heusden - Antwerp (PASS)

RECAP:

18:00 FT Gent 1 : 3 Anderlecht
20:00 FT SK Beveren 1 : 4 Sint-Truiden LOSER
20:00 FT Genk 2 : 0 Charleroi WINNER 2 units

15:00 FT Cercle Brugge 0 : 2 Brugge WINNER
15:00 FT Mons 3 : 3 Mouscron LOSER
20:00 FT Standard 1 : 0 Lokeren LOSER 2 units

20:00 FT Antwerp 2 : 1 Westerlo LOSER
20:00 FT La Louviere 2 : 0 Heusden-Zolder

 

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SECTION C: Austrian max. Bundesliga

NEXT FIXTURES

only plays:

18/08 Rapid - Aust.Vienna (DRAW)
18/08 GAK(PTC ----2 unit play)) - Kaernten

16:30 FT Rapid 2 : 2 Austria V WINNER
19:30 FT Grazer AK 5 : 1 Karnten WINNER

 

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SECTION C: Norwegian Eliteserien

16/08 Lyn - Molde (PASS)
16/08 Aalesund - Rosenborg (PASS)
16/08 Viking - Brann (PASS)
16/08 Sogndal - Valerenga (PASS)
16/08 Odd_Grenland (PICK TO COVER)- Tromso
16/08 Lillestrom - Bryne
16/08 BodoGlimt (PTC) - Stabaek

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FT Aalesund 0 - 2 Rosenborg
FT Lillestrom 4 - 0 Bryne
FT Odd Grenland 5 - 0 Tromso WINNER
FT Sogndal 0 - 0 Valerenga Oslo
FT Viking 3 - 3 Brann Bergen

 

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SECTION C: Turkish Super Lig

17/08 Besiktas(PTC - 3 unit play!!!) - Bursaspor
17/08 Ankaragucu (PTC) - Samsunspor
17/08 Diyarbakirspor - G.Birligi (PTC)

RECAP:

16:00 FT Istanbulspor 1 : 0 Adanaspor
18:00 FT Besiktas 1 : 0 Bursaspor (WINNER 3 units)
18:00 FT Ankaragucu 4 : 2 Samsunspor (WINNER)
18:00 FT Denizlispor 1 : 1 Rizespor

 

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SECTION C: French 1st Division

16/08 Toulouse - Lille (PTC+0.5 -125 )
16/08 Sochaux (PTC -0.5 -125 ) - Rennes
16/08 Montpellier - Lyon (DRAW +190 )
16/08 Monaco - Bastia (try to get a +1.5 for bastia+1 -133 )
16/08 Metz - PSG (PTCpk -108 )
16/08 Lens - Marseille (PASS)
16/08 Le_Mans - Nice (PASS)
16/08 Guingamp - Bordeaux (DRAW+200 )
16/08 Auxerre - Strasbourg (PTC+0.5 +110 )
16/08 Ajaccio - Nantes (PASS)

RECAP:

17:15 FT Auxerre 3 : 2 RC Strasbourg LOSER
20:00 FT AC Ajaccio 1 : 3 Nantes
20:00 FT Guingamp 1 : 3 Bordeaux (WINNER +0.5)
20:00 FT Le Mans 1 : 1 Nice
20:00 FT Metz 0 : 1 Paris Saint Germain (WINNER)
20:00 FT Monaco 2 : 0 Bastia (LOSER)
20:00 FT Montpellier 0 : 2 Olympique L. (WINNER +0.5
20:00 FT Sochaux 1 : 1 Rennes LOSER
20:00 FT Toulouse 0 : 3 Lille WINNER

 

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UEFA CUP PARLAY:

F C Karnten v Grindavik
F C Karnten
1.25


Dinamo Bucharest v Liepajas Metalurgs
Dinamo Bucharest
1.22


Molde v K I Klaksvik
Molde
1.06


Crvena Zvevda v Nistru Otaci
Crvena Zvevda
1.13


Lens v Kutaisi
Lens
1.08


O B Odense v TVMK Tallinn
O B Odense
1.20



Combination

2.37 X 2 units = 4.74 units

 

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UEFA CUP PARLAY 2:

F C Karnten v Grindavik
F C Karnten
1.25


Dinamo Bucharest v Liepajas Metalurgs
Dinamo Bucharest
1.22


Nordsjaelland v Shirak
Nordsjaelland
1.25


Liteks Lovetch v Zimbru Chisinau
Liteks Lovetch
1.30


Brondby v Dinamo Minsk
Brondby
1.30


O B Odense v TVMK Tallinn
O B Odense
1.20



Combination

3.87 x 2 units = 7.74 units

let's see what happens.

 

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SECTION D: the always favorite predicting the correct score of soccer games.

this is ONLY for tracking purposes as this will be my FULL season trying to cap matches from about 6 different leagues....

from the ENG Premier

Liverpool vs Chelsea
11/05/2003 Chelsea - Liverpool 2 : 1
06/10/2002 Liverpool - Chelsea 1 : 0
24/03/2002 Liverpool - Chelsea 1 : 0
16/12/2001 Chelsea - Liverpool 4 : 0
08/05/2001 Liverpool - Chelsea 2 : 2

AT Liverpool LIV WON 5 DRAW 2 LOST 0 goals:15-6
so we don't expect Chelsea to win this game.

we're expecting a possible Liverpool narrow WIN or DRAW

(each for 1 unit)
bet 1: Liverpool 1, Chelsea 0 +750
bet 2: Liverpool 1, Chelsea 1 +550
bet 3: Liverpool 2, Chelsea 1 +850

seeeing as how we're getting good odds here from pinnacle,
the way that i see it, we have about 4-5 chances to hit the correct score due to past history.....even if we HIT ONE, we would still make a profit.

i would only pick games where there is a DEFINITE edge for the home side....and they've been involved in close games.
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game 2:

Fulham - Middlesbr

19/01/2003 Fulham - Middlesbr 1 : 0
24/08/2002 Middlesbr - Fulham 2 : 2
19/02/2002 Middlesbr - Fulham 2 : 1
12/01/2002 Fulham - Middlesbr 2 : 1

bet 1: Fulham 1, Boro 0 +700
bet 2: Fulham 2, Boro 1 +950
bet 3: Fulham 1, Boro 1 +550

i don't expect middlesborough to win in this game.
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FINAL SCORE: Fulham 3 - 2 Middlesbrough
not the defensive game i was looking for, but what do you expect, it's early in the season and some teams are still ironing out the kninks......

YTD: 0 - 6 = - 6.00 units (just for tracking purposes...!!!!)

 

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SECTION A: TORONTO VIGILANTE PICKS:

saturday:

1) Bolton Wanderers +2 -110 ( 1 unit) LOSER
2) ARESENAL ML -275 ( 2 units) WINNER

 

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UEFA CUP PARLAY:

F C Karnten v Grindavik
F C Karnten
1.25

Dinamo Bucharest v Liepajas Metalurgs
Dinamo Bucharest
1.22

Molde v K I Klaksvik
Molde
1.06

Crvena Zvevda v Nistru Otaci
Crvena Zvevda
1.13

Lens v Kutaisi
Lens
1.08

O B Odense v TVMK Tallinn
O B Odense
1.20

recap:
Karnten 2 - 1 Grindavik WINNER
Molde 2 - 0 Klaksvik WINNER
Dinamo Bucuresti 5 - 2 Liepaja WINNER
Lens 3 - 0 Torpedo Kutaisi (great 2nd half by Lens) WINNER
Red Star Belgrade 5 - 0 Nistru Otaci WINNER

OB Odense 1 - 1 TVMK Tallinn LOSER AND PARLAY KILLER
Obense let TVMK come back in the second half to tie.....fawk that.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

UEFA CUP PARLAY 2:
F C Karnten v Grindavik
F C Karnten
1.25

Dinamo Bucharest v Liepajas Metalurgs
Dinamo Bucharest
1.22

Nordsjaelland v Shirak
Nordsjaelland
1.25

Liteks Lovetch v Zimbru Chisinau
Liteks Lovetch
1.30

Brondby v Dinamo Minsk
Brondby
1.30

O B Odense v TVMK Tallinn
O B Odense
1.20

Combination
3.87 x 2 units = 7.74 units

recap:
FT Karnten 2 - 1 Grindavik WINNER
FT Dinamo Bucuresti 5 - 2 Liepaja WINNER
FT FC Nordsjaelland 4 - 0 Shirak WINNER
FT Litex Lovech 0 - 0 Zimbru LOSER and parlay killer!!!
FT OB Odense 1 - 1 TVMK TallinnLOSER and 2nd PARLAY KILLER

FT Brondby 3 - 0 Din. Minsk WINNER


pretty much everything is going to plan with the exception of two close games that may kill my two parlays....

 

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FT Litex Lovech 0 - 0 Zimbru

FAWKING LOVECH KILLS MY FIRST PARLAY......
Lesson, stay away from Bulgarian teams.....!!!!

one more to go.....

 

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came damn close on those 2 parlays, but we'll get em this week with scottish preimer soccer.

updated record soccer 2003:
parlays: 0 - 3 = - 5.00 units
YTD: 3 - 5 = - 8.67 units