Sorry BBC....saw these early, and figured I would get it out there early......
? Peyton Manning and his pass blockers traditionally have struggled against the 3-4, espeically in the playoffs, so expect Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to use that as his base scheme this week. Ryan calls more blitzes than any other defensive coordinator in the league and this attacking defense is superb at disguising and varying its pressure. Even when Ryan brings the standard four pass rushers, the Colts' offensive linemen could be overmatched. RT Ryan Diem is going to struggle one on one with LDE Trevor Pryce, who is playing at a very high level right now and should benefit from the extra week of rest.
The Colts allowed only 15 sacks this season, which was the lowest in the league, but in this matchup of strength versus strength, we give the advantage to the Ravens' fierce pass rush. To counter this disadvantage, Indianapolis will sometimes go to its spread, no-huddle attack to spread the defense horizontally. Although this is a fine idea, it will be loud and difficult to communicate. The Ravens were first in the league, allowing a meager 54.8 percent completion percentage by opposing quarterbacks. Their pass rush is the No. 1 reason for their outstanding pass defense. Manning must play an outstanding game for his team to have a chance.
Freeney? Colts DE Dwight Freeney had two sacks last week and has been playing very well of late. One of the most crucial individual matchups in this game will be between Freeney and LT Jonathan Ogden. Freeney explodes off the snap, has demonstrated fantastic hustle and is very difficult for blockers to get their hands on. Ogden is the leader and the top pass protector on a Ravens offensive line that has been outstanding at keeping QB Steve McNair clean in the pocket. Freeney might be able to use his shorter stature to his advantage over the much taller Ogden to get low around the corner and he has beaten Ogden with some consistency in past matchups.
The Colts will use a lot of games and stunts from their defensive front to try to confuse Baltimore's zone protection schemes. Early in the game against the Chiefs, Indianapolis slanted both defensive ends inside at the snap, as it expected a between-the-tackles running play. The Colts may do some of that this week as well. Both Freeney and LDE Robert Mathis are susceptible to allowing gaping holes by rushing upfield too quickly and Baltimore would be wise to attack that weakness with draw plays, but the Ravens rarely run draws. Indianapolis will also take Freeney or Mathis out of the game on running downs, which makes a lot of sense.
? Both teams are built to play with the lead. Indianapolis must weather the storm of emotion that it surely will face on the road. The Colts defense spends far too much time on the field, which really limits the opportunities Indy's offense gets. However, the Colts capitalize on their few opportunities very well and rarely go three and out. If the Ravens get up early, the Colts' undersized defense will have a difficult time of playing to its strengths. The Colts offense has been fantastic converting on third downs this year, but the Ravens defense has been equally spectacular in shutting down opponents on third down. This also holds true with production in the red zone. Indianapolis must continue this fine production in crucial situations to have a shot at winning on the road, but it will not come easy.
? Colts WR Reggie Wayne over Ravens CB Samari Rolle is a big mismatch. If the Colts can give Manning time to throw downfield, which will not be an easy task for Indianapolis' pass blockers, Wayne and Marvin Harrison should convert with Manning for big plays. Manning is a master of using pump fakes and these elite receivers are outstanding at selling double moves. These tactics can be effective against the Ravens' cornerback duo. Chris McAlister is a very good cornerback, but he can be overly aggressive in going for the interception, while Rolle is simply outmanned in all areas against Wayne.
? A healthy Dallas Clark has increased the potency of the Colts offense a great deal. The Chiefs did an outstanding job of being physical with the Colts' wide receivers, as they had safety support over the top. This allowed Indianapolis' running game and secondary options to flourish -- TE Clark in particular. Clark led the Colts offense with nine catches for 103 receiving yards. Although the Ravens might take a similar approach to slowing down Harrison and Wayne, Baltimore's defense has far more versatile pieces and is much more aggressive than Kansas City's. Clark still matches up very well with Baltimore's linebackers and safeties and once again will be an integral part of Indianapolis' passing game.
? McNair's poise, experience and leadership will be in full display as he commands Baltimore's offense. Expect McNair to take a slow, deliberate approach and milk the clock, heavily leaning on his running game and mixing in high-percentage passes with the occasional shot deep downfield. Kansas City's offense was extremely predictable last week and the Colts took full advantage. The Ravens can lean on their running game, but must utilize balance and keep the Colts defense guessing. Brian Billick has done a fine job of keeping defenses off balance since taking over the play-calling and we expect it to continue this week.
Baltimore will control the clock and wear down the Colts' smaller defense with ther running game -- even though the Ravens get very few big plays from Jamal Lewis, who looks well past his prime. The Ravens also would be wise to run out of their three-receiver sets to challenge the Colts defenders to make tackles in space, something they have really struggled with all year, but Lewis also isn't real good in space or very elusive. Although the Colts did a great job against the run last week, they averaged a massive 173 rushing yards allowed per game this season. McNair will lean on his running game in a big way.
Sanders? Safety Bob Sanders is a difference-maker on Indianapolis' defense. Last week, the Colts often brought Sanders into the box to slow down Larry Johnson. That tactic worked very well, as Johnson gained just 32 rushing yards, with the Colts playing more Cover 3 behind it. The Chiefs are a much better rushing team than Baltimore, but are not as dangerous through the air. We expect Indianapolis to mix its traditional Cover 2 coverages with the Cover 3 it used last week. The Colts' entire defense did a much better job of wrapping up and that sound tackling must carry over this week to get the Ravens offense off the field quickly. With a healthy Sanders, the Colts moved Marlin Jackson back to his natural cornerback spot, which, in turn improved the run defense dramatically at two positions.
? The comparison between running backs clearly favors the Colts. The Colts defensive tackles are overmatched at the point of attack and we expect Lewis to get many more carries and better overall production than Joseph Addai, but Addai is the superior player. Running room will be very sparse for Addai, especially with the Colts' bread and butter running play, their stretch run, as the Ravens have far too much defensive speed for a slow developing perimeter rushing play. Baltimore allowed only 75.9 yards on the ground per game during the regular season. Manning is outstanding at taking what a defense gives him, but in this case, the Ravens will not have to show to their hand by bringing extra defenders into the box to stop Indianapolis' run threat.
Special Teams
The kicking game clearly favors Baltimore. The Colts coverage teams played very well last week, but this was a huge problem area all year long. The Ravens have been very solid in all areas. Neither team has a particularly dynamic returner, however. This game features two excellent kickers in Matt Stover and Adam Vinatieri. Both should handle the pressure of a game-winning kick without any problem.
Matchups
? Baltimore LT Jonathan Ogden vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
? Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. Baltimore CB Chris McAlister
? Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Baltimore CB Samari Rolle
? Indianapolis LT Tarik Glenn vs. Baltimore RDE Terrell Suggs
? Baltimore RT Tony Pashos vs. Indianapolis LDE Robert Mathis
Scouts' Edge
This really isn't a good matchup for either team when looking at team strengths. Watching the Colts' outstanding offense against Baltimore's phenomenal defense will be a rare treat. Although Indianapolis' defense performed admirably last week against Kansas City, it is still a unit that cannot withstand being on the field too long against a physical attack like Baltimore offers. For that reason, we expect this smaller defense to eventually cave in on the road. The Colts will be out in the elements and outside the confines of their RCA Dome. They have lost their past four games on the road, while the Ravens are 7-1 at home. The Colts offense went to the ground last week, but should air it out in Baltimore. Manning will fight valiantly to erase his postseason reputation, but Baltimore plays extremely aggressive, wins this football game and advances to the AFC Championship Game.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 17
? Peyton Manning and his pass blockers traditionally have struggled against the 3-4, espeically in the playoffs, so expect Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to use that as his base scheme this week. Ryan calls more blitzes than any other defensive coordinator in the league and this attacking defense is superb at disguising and varying its pressure. Even when Ryan brings the standard four pass rushers, the Colts' offensive linemen could be overmatched. RT Ryan Diem is going to struggle one on one with LDE Trevor Pryce, who is playing at a very high level right now and should benefit from the extra week of rest.
The Colts allowed only 15 sacks this season, which was the lowest in the league, but in this matchup of strength versus strength, we give the advantage to the Ravens' fierce pass rush. To counter this disadvantage, Indianapolis will sometimes go to its spread, no-huddle attack to spread the defense horizontally. Although this is a fine idea, it will be loud and difficult to communicate. The Ravens were first in the league, allowing a meager 54.8 percent completion percentage by opposing quarterbacks. Their pass rush is the No. 1 reason for their outstanding pass defense. Manning must play an outstanding game for his team to have a chance.
Freeney? Colts DE Dwight Freeney had two sacks last week and has been playing very well of late. One of the most crucial individual matchups in this game will be between Freeney and LT Jonathan Ogden. Freeney explodes off the snap, has demonstrated fantastic hustle and is very difficult for blockers to get their hands on. Ogden is the leader and the top pass protector on a Ravens offensive line that has been outstanding at keeping QB Steve McNair clean in the pocket. Freeney might be able to use his shorter stature to his advantage over the much taller Ogden to get low around the corner and he has beaten Ogden with some consistency in past matchups.
The Colts will use a lot of games and stunts from their defensive front to try to confuse Baltimore's zone protection schemes. Early in the game against the Chiefs, Indianapolis slanted both defensive ends inside at the snap, as it expected a between-the-tackles running play. The Colts may do some of that this week as well. Both Freeney and LDE Robert Mathis are susceptible to allowing gaping holes by rushing upfield too quickly and Baltimore would be wise to attack that weakness with draw plays, but the Ravens rarely run draws. Indianapolis will also take Freeney or Mathis out of the game on running downs, which makes a lot of sense.
? Both teams are built to play with the lead. Indianapolis must weather the storm of emotion that it surely will face on the road. The Colts defense spends far too much time on the field, which really limits the opportunities Indy's offense gets. However, the Colts capitalize on their few opportunities very well and rarely go three and out. If the Ravens get up early, the Colts' undersized defense will have a difficult time of playing to its strengths. The Colts offense has been fantastic converting on third downs this year, but the Ravens defense has been equally spectacular in shutting down opponents on third down. This also holds true with production in the red zone. Indianapolis must continue this fine production in crucial situations to have a shot at winning on the road, but it will not come easy.
? Colts WR Reggie Wayne over Ravens CB Samari Rolle is a big mismatch. If the Colts can give Manning time to throw downfield, which will not be an easy task for Indianapolis' pass blockers, Wayne and Marvin Harrison should convert with Manning for big plays. Manning is a master of using pump fakes and these elite receivers are outstanding at selling double moves. These tactics can be effective against the Ravens' cornerback duo. Chris McAlister is a very good cornerback, but he can be overly aggressive in going for the interception, while Rolle is simply outmanned in all areas against Wayne.
? A healthy Dallas Clark has increased the potency of the Colts offense a great deal. The Chiefs did an outstanding job of being physical with the Colts' wide receivers, as they had safety support over the top. This allowed Indianapolis' running game and secondary options to flourish -- TE Clark in particular. Clark led the Colts offense with nine catches for 103 receiving yards. Although the Ravens might take a similar approach to slowing down Harrison and Wayne, Baltimore's defense has far more versatile pieces and is much more aggressive than Kansas City's. Clark still matches up very well with Baltimore's linebackers and safeties and once again will be an integral part of Indianapolis' passing game.
? McNair's poise, experience and leadership will be in full display as he commands Baltimore's offense. Expect McNair to take a slow, deliberate approach and milk the clock, heavily leaning on his running game and mixing in high-percentage passes with the occasional shot deep downfield. Kansas City's offense was extremely predictable last week and the Colts took full advantage. The Ravens can lean on their running game, but must utilize balance and keep the Colts defense guessing. Brian Billick has done a fine job of keeping defenses off balance since taking over the play-calling and we expect it to continue this week.
Baltimore will control the clock and wear down the Colts' smaller defense with ther running game -- even though the Ravens get very few big plays from Jamal Lewis, who looks well past his prime. The Ravens also would be wise to run out of their three-receiver sets to challenge the Colts defenders to make tackles in space, something they have really struggled with all year, but Lewis also isn't real good in space or very elusive. Although the Colts did a great job against the run last week, they averaged a massive 173 rushing yards allowed per game this season. McNair will lean on his running game in a big way.
Sanders? Safety Bob Sanders is a difference-maker on Indianapolis' defense. Last week, the Colts often brought Sanders into the box to slow down Larry Johnson. That tactic worked very well, as Johnson gained just 32 rushing yards, with the Colts playing more Cover 3 behind it. The Chiefs are a much better rushing team than Baltimore, but are not as dangerous through the air. We expect Indianapolis to mix its traditional Cover 2 coverages with the Cover 3 it used last week. The Colts' entire defense did a much better job of wrapping up and that sound tackling must carry over this week to get the Ravens offense off the field quickly. With a healthy Sanders, the Colts moved Marlin Jackson back to his natural cornerback spot, which, in turn improved the run defense dramatically at two positions.
? The comparison between running backs clearly favors the Colts. The Colts defensive tackles are overmatched at the point of attack and we expect Lewis to get many more carries and better overall production than Joseph Addai, but Addai is the superior player. Running room will be very sparse for Addai, especially with the Colts' bread and butter running play, their stretch run, as the Ravens have far too much defensive speed for a slow developing perimeter rushing play. Baltimore allowed only 75.9 yards on the ground per game during the regular season. Manning is outstanding at taking what a defense gives him, but in this case, the Ravens will not have to show to their hand by bringing extra defenders into the box to stop Indianapolis' run threat.
Special Teams
The kicking game clearly favors Baltimore. The Colts coverage teams played very well last week, but this was a huge problem area all year long. The Ravens have been very solid in all areas. Neither team has a particularly dynamic returner, however. This game features two excellent kickers in Matt Stover and Adam Vinatieri. Both should handle the pressure of a game-winning kick without any problem.
Matchups
? Baltimore LT Jonathan Ogden vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
? Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. Baltimore CB Chris McAlister
? Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Baltimore CB Samari Rolle
? Indianapolis LT Tarik Glenn vs. Baltimore RDE Terrell Suggs
? Baltimore RT Tony Pashos vs. Indianapolis LDE Robert Mathis
Scouts' Edge
This really isn't a good matchup for either team when looking at team strengths. Watching the Colts' outstanding offense against Baltimore's phenomenal defense will be a rare treat. Although Indianapolis' defense performed admirably last week against Kansas City, it is still a unit that cannot withstand being on the field too long against a physical attack like Baltimore offers. For that reason, we expect this smaller defense to eventually cave in on the road. The Colts will be out in the elements and outside the confines of their RCA Dome. They have lost their past four games on the road, while the Ravens are 7-1 at home. The Colts offense went to the ground last week, but should air it out in Baltimore. Manning will fight valiantly to erase his postseason reputation, but Baltimore plays extremely aggressive, wins this football game and advances to the AFC Championship Game.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 17
