Matchup to watch
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie
There may not be a player in the NFL who can influence a game more than Moss. The Jaguars dedicated a lot of resources to denying him the ball but Moss still won, not by catching the ball but by creating favorable matchups for his teammates. The result: Tom Brady completed easy pass after easy pass, controlling the clock and tempo of the game with precise, short throws. The Chargers probably will be more aggressive, consistently pressuring Brady with five pass-rushers, but that strategy will put a lot of stress on outstanding cornerbacks Cromartie and Quentin Jammer.
Cromartie is a superstar in the making who will likely often draw the assignment of shadowing Moss. Unlike just about every other corner in the league, Cromartie comes close to matching Moss' phenomenal combination of size, strength and athleticism. Watching these two battle for jump balls is going to be a rare treat. Still, Moss is the far more refined player. His overall craftiness and big-play potential on double moves -- which can exploit Cromartie's aggressiveness and inexperience -- give him the upper hand. But don't be surprised if Cromartie comes up with a big play or two of his own.
How will a rash of injuries affect San Diego's offense?
It's difficult to predict exactly how injuries will affect players, but San Diego certainly has an inordinate number of key players nursing ailments. TE Antonio Gates (toe) played last game, but he didn't perform up to his usual lofty standards, catching just two passes while showing diminished explosiveness. He was basically a decoy against Indianapolis, but when he's healthy, Gates can't be covered by a single defender. This opens up a lot of space for the Chargers' other weapons. Gates also is an exceptional third-down and red zone weapon, and New England's defense inside its own 20-yard line has been suspect all year. Ideally, San Diego head coach Norv Turner wants to detach Gates from the formation and create a matchup with one of the Patriots' heavier outside linebackers. But whether the Pro Bowl tight end will be healthy enough to exploit the situation is anyone's guess.
QB Philip Rivers (knee) played extremely well before he was forced out of last week's game, and although he hasn't been consistent this season, he would represent a major loss against the Pats. Rivers has protected the ball well in recent weeks, which is especially impressive given the Chargers' penchant for throwing deep. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) was injured early in the Colts game and replaced by Michael Turner. While he's a very good backup, Turner isn't nearly the threat Tomlinson is, particularly in the passing game. Turner isn't as dangerous on screens or as productive a downfield receiver as Tomlinson, who can exploit single coverage against the Pats' linebackers. Simply put, LT is the player who makes San Diego's offense go.
Strong reserves and wide receivers who have elevated their play will help the Chargers, but they won't pull off the upset without Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers. New England's terrific offense puts an awful lot of stress on opposing offenses to eliminate mistakes and score points on nearly every possession. The Patriots never let up, setting such an incredible scoring pace that opponents barely can afford to punt.
Which running game figures to be more successful this week?
Against an aggressive Chargers defense, the Colts managed just 11 rushing yards on their first 10 attempts last week. San Diego's front seven is playing remarkably well, and even Patriots Pro Bowl C Dan Koppen should find it difficult to contain massive Chargers NT Jamal Williams. But the Patriots often will run the ball out of three- and four-receiver sets, spreading the field horizontally and forcing several excellent front-seven defenders off the field, including Williams. Also, Pats RB Laurence Maroney has been every bit as hot as the Chargers' run defense down the stretch. He's quick to get downhill and is running with conviction. San Diego will align at most six defenders in the box against New England's three- and four-receiver sets, resulting in lanes that allow Maroney to make consistent gains all game long. Delays and draws, many to RB Kevin Faulk, should be productive plays for the Patriots.
Tomlinson likely will play, and he always is capable of greatness. The NFL's leading rusher is a constant threat to break a long run, and he can beat a defense in so many ways. But New England will counter by often moving an extra defender into the box, usually SS Rodney Harrison, who is a nasty and proven run-stopper. The Patriots are thin at linebacker, and the aging inside defenders in that group have just ordinary range. But ILBs Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi are experienced, fierce competitors who shouldn't be sold short in such a big game. NT Vince Wilfork and DEs Richard Seymour and Ty Warren form an elite defensive front that should be able to keep Seau and Bruschi pretty clean. New England's run defense has improved quite a bit in the past few weeks and is peaking at the right time. Play-action is an important element in both passing attacks, so establishing a rushing threat early will be especially important. We like the Patriots' chances of pulling that off more than the Chargers', but don't underestimate Tomlinson, even though he's hobbled.
Do the Chargers have a shot at slowing down the Patriots' potent passing attack?
San Diego's pass defense has a knack for creating turnovers (34 interceptions in 18 games) and features plenty of exceptional individual performers, but this unit is going to have its hands full. The Chargers generally keep opposing No. 1 receivers wrapped up but they have more trouble containing secondary options. An excellent pair of starting cornerbacks doesn't entirely mask weaknesses at nickel back and safety, with several less-than-familiar names having delivered big numbers against this defense. CB Drayton Florence will have an especially difficult time covering WR Wes Welker in the slot.
San Diego's outside linebackers also will struggle against New England's tight ends and running backs. Faulk, in particular, is an extremely productive member of the Pats' passing game, who too often gets overlooked. He contributes in many ways, but he may be most valuable as QB Tom Brady's trusted safety valve and on blitz pickups. The Patriots' screen plays and quick throws in the flats to Welker and the backs act as an extension of the run game. The Chargers blitz often, but very rarely do they bring six pass rushers. However, even sending only five is a dangerous proposition against Brady. The alternative: force the Patriots to mount long drives, limiting their total number of possessions and making it more difficult to score an absurd amount of points. Then again, that approach backfired on Jacksonville, whose defense was picked apart by Brady.
Expect San Diego to target the edges of New England's pass protection, pitting a strength against a relative weakness (RT Nick Kaczur, in particular, will need extra help). But the Patriots can help themselves in this regard simply by spreading the field, forcing OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips wider, increasing the ground they have to cover to reach Brady and making their pass-rushing intentions more apparent. There's virtually no room for error, though. New England's receivers drop very few passes and the Patriots rarely commit turnovers. Though the Chargers' secondary actually played well last week, Colts QB Peyton Manning threw for 402 yards and this will be a stiffer test.
Scouts' Edge
The Patriots no longer appear invincible, as they did early in the season. But playing at home, on an extra day's rest, against a battered Chargers club coming off a very physical game that could be without its three most important offensive players ... the Pats don't exactly look beatable. At roughly this time a year ago, San Diego had an eight-point fourth-quarter lead but couldn't eliminate New England in the divisional playoffs. The Chargers have an extraordinary collection of talent, and they still are standing, having won eight in a row, despite being written off many months ago. And while it should be a tight game, their run ends this week in Foxborough. The Patriots already have proven they have the firepower on offense to score -- and score big -- on anyone. Plus, they have history on their side: New England's last loss in the playoffs at home came in 1978. The Pats have a date with destiny and an unprecedented 19-0 record.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Chargers 23
I was thinking Pats all week....but with the number climbing over 14, and everyone and their brother on NE, I'm starting to have second thoughts... Still, good info--take it for what it's worth. GL
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie
There may not be a player in the NFL who can influence a game more than Moss. The Jaguars dedicated a lot of resources to denying him the ball but Moss still won, not by catching the ball but by creating favorable matchups for his teammates. The result: Tom Brady completed easy pass after easy pass, controlling the clock and tempo of the game with precise, short throws. The Chargers probably will be more aggressive, consistently pressuring Brady with five pass-rushers, but that strategy will put a lot of stress on outstanding cornerbacks Cromartie and Quentin Jammer.
Cromartie is a superstar in the making who will likely often draw the assignment of shadowing Moss. Unlike just about every other corner in the league, Cromartie comes close to matching Moss' phenomenal combination of size, strength and athleticism. Watching these two battle for jump balls is going to be a rare treat. Still, Moss is the far more refined player. His overall craftiness and big-play potential on double moves -- which can exploit Cromartie's aggressiveness and inexperience -- give him the upper hand. But don't be surprised if Cromartie comes up with a big play or two of his own.
How will a rash of injuries affect San Diego's offense?
It's difficult to predict exactly how injuries will affect players, but San Diego certainly has an inordinate number of key players nursing ailments. TE Antonio Gates (toe) played last game, but he didn't perform up to his usual lofty standards, catching just two passes while showing diminished explosiveness. He was basically a decoy against Indianapolis, but when he's healthy, Gates can't be covered by a single defender. This opens up a lot of space for the Chargers' other weapons. Gates also is an exceptional third-down and red zone weapon, and New England's defense inside its own 20-yard line has been suspect all year. Ideally, San Diego head coach Norv Turner wants to detach Gates from the formation and create a matchup with one of the Patriots' heavier outside linebackers. But whether the Pro Bowl tight end will be healthy enough to exploit the situation is anyone's guess.
QB Philip Rivers (knee) played extremely well before he was forced out of last week's game, and although he hasn't been consistent this season, he would represent a major loss against the Pats. Rivers has protected the ball well in recent weeks, which is especially impressive given the Chargers' penchant for throwing deep. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) was injured early in the Colts game and replaced by Michael Turner. While he's a very good backup, Turner isn't nearly the threat Tomlinson is, particularly in the passing game. Turner isn't as dangerous on screens or as productive a downfield receiver as Tomlinson, who can exploit single coverage against the Pats' linebackers. Simply put, LT is the player who makes San Diego's offense go.
Strong reserves and wide receivers who have elevated their play will help the Chargers, but they won't pull off the upset without Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers. New England's terrific offense puts an awful lot of stress on opposing offenses to eliminate mistakes and score points on nearly every possession. The Patriots never let up, setting such an incredible scoring pace that opponents barely can afford to punt.
Which running game figures to be more successful this week?
Against an aggressive Chargers defense, the Colts managed just 11 rushing yards on their first 10 attempts last week. San Diego's front seven is playing remarkably well, and even Patriots Pro Bowl C Dan Koppen should find it difficult to contain massive Chargers NT Jamal Williams. But the Patriots often will run the ball out of three- and four-receiver sets, spreading the field horizontally and forcing several excellent front-seven defenders off the field, including Williams. Also, Pats RB Laurence Maroney has been every bit as hot as the Chargers' run defense down the stretch. He's quick to get downhill and is running with conviction. San Diego will align at most six defenders in the box against New England's three- and four-receiver sets, resulting in lanes that allow Maroney to make consistent gains all game long. Delays and draws, many to RB Kevin Faulk, should be productive plays for the Patriots.
Tomlinson likely will play, and he always is capable of greatness. The NFL's leading rusher is a constant threat to break a long run, and he can beat a defense in so many ways. But New England will counter by often moving an extra defender into the box, usually SS Rodney Harrison, who is a nasty and proven run-stopper. The Patriots are thin at linebacker, and the aging inside defenders in that group have just ordinary range. But ILBs Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi are experienced, fierce competitors who shouldn't be sold short in such a big game. NT Vince Wilfork and DEs Richard Seymour and Ty Warren form an elite defensive front that should be able to keep Seau and Bruschi pretty clean. New England's run defense has improved quite a bit in the past few weeks and is peaking at the right time. Play-action is an important element in both passing attacks, so establishing a rushing threat early will be especially important. We like the Patriots' chances of pulling that off more than the Chargers', but don't underestimate Tomlinson, even though he's hobbled.
Do the Chargers have a shot at slowing down the Patriots' potent passing attack?
San Diego's pass defense has a knack for creating turnovers (34 interceptions in 18 games) and features plenty of exceptional individual performers, but this unit is going to have its hands full. The Chargers generally keep opposing No. 1 receivers wrapped up but they have more trouble containing secondary options. An excellent pair of starting cornerbacks doesn't entirely mask weaknesses at nickel back and safety, with several less-than-familiar names having delivered big numbers against this defense. CB Drayton Florence will have an especially difficult time covering WR Wes Welker in the slot.
San Diego's outside linebackers also will struggle against New England's tight ends and running backs. Faulk, in particular, is an extremely productive member of the Pats' passing game, who too often gets overlooked. He contributes in many ways, but he may be most valuable as QB Tom Brady's trusted safety valve and on blitz pickups. The Patriots' screen plays and quick throws in the flats to Welker and the backs act as an extension of the run game. The Chargers blitz often, but very rarely do they bring six pass rushers. However, even sending only five is a dangerous proposition against Brady. The alternative: force the Patriots to mount long drives, limiting their total number of possessions and making it more difficult to score an absurd amount of points. Then again, that approach backfired on Jacksonville, whose defense was picked apart by Brady.
Expect San Diego to target the edges of New England's pass protection, pitting a strength against a relative weakness (RT Nick Kaczur, in particular, will need extra help). But the Patriots can help themselves in this regard simply by spreading the field, forcing OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips wider, increasing the ground they have to cover to reach Brady and making their pass-rushing intentions more apparent. There's virtually no room for error, though. New England's receivers drop very few passes and the Patriots rarely commit turnovers. Though the Chargers' secondary actually played well last week, Colts QB Peyton Manning threw for 402 yards and this will be a stiffer test.
Scouts' Edge
The Patriots no longer appear invincible, as they did early in the season. But playing at home, on an extra day's rest, against a battered Chargers club coming off a very physical game that could be without its three most important offensive players ... the Pats don't exactly look beatable. At roughly this time a year ago, San Diego had an eight-point fourth-quarter lead but couldn't eliminate New England in the divisional playoffs. The Chargers have an extraordinary collection of talent, and they still are standing, having won eight in a row, despite being written off many months ago. And while it should be a tight game, their run ends this week in Foxborough. The Patriots already have proven they have the firepower on offense to score -- and score big -- on anyone. Plus, they have history on their side: New England's last loss in the playoffs at home came in 1978. The Pats have a date with destiny and an unprecedented 19-0 record.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Chargers 23
I was thinking Pats all week....but with the number climbing over 14, and everyone and their brother on NE, I'm starting to have second thoughts... Still, good info--take it for what it's worth. GL
