? Both of these offenses can attack their opponent in many ways. Obviously, great quarterback play helps in this regard, but both coaching staffs are very innovative and confident in the ability of players to execute. Both teams can attack a defense with spread, no-huddle attacks that are among the best in the league. The Colts will use their spread attack to produce mismatches against New England's suspect secondary and stretch its 3-4 scheme horizontally to better identify blitzes. This also could fatigue a defense that lacks depth, is getting up in age and is somewhat slow-footed. The Patriots will use the spread formation occasionally to help negate the Colts' edge rushers.
Both teams also use many personnel groupings and utilize more players from their roster than most offenses. They are balanced and can score points on the ground or through the air with the deep ball or a short, precise passing game. When the opposing defense is trying to take a specific aspect of the offense away, these teams are capable of producing by altering their attack. Both quarterbacks are masters of controlling tempo, managing the clock and maximizing the talent around them. Both of these offenses are also exceptional on third downs.
Dillon
Maroney? Tom Brady is 12-1 for his career in the playoffs, simply an astounding accomplishment. Though he was under pressure much of the game, Brady certainly did not play his best in San Diego -- until the end of the game. Brady will, of course, be called upon to make some big throws in this game, but we expect the Patriots to attack the Colts on the ground and lean on Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, especially early. Though New England doesn't have much of a vertical presence on its roster, Brady will still take shots downfield off play-action once the running game has been established. Brady has really favored Jabar Gaffney of late, but he will not be picky with his distribution and will attack any weakness he finds in the Colts' coverage schemes. It should be noted that Brady threw four interceptions when these teams met during the regular season.
? Peyton Manning has not played his best football the past two weeks as evidenced by his 1-5 TD-INT ratio, but he has orchestrated the Colts' offense extremely efficiently and has taken advantage of the extra attention that his fantastic pair of receivers has received. We expect the Patriots to do everything possible on defense to eliminate big plays downfield to the Colts' phenomenal wide receiver duo and force Indianapolis to sustain long drives.
The Patriots play outstanding red zone defense and will tighten up once the Colts get deep in their end. Manning will have to show patience throughout the drive and great precision in the red zone. The Patriots will also have to blitz to generate consistent pressure on Manning, but face the prospect of getting burned for big plays, as the Colts' pass protection has been exceptional all season. Manning played a great game, throwing for 326 yards and two touchdowns, when these teams met in the regular season. Right or wrong, this may end up being the defining game of Manning's career.
? In the playoffs, the Colts' defense has allowed an average of 14 total points, 185 yards and just 63.5 rushing yards per contest. This is obviously in stark contrast to the regular season, when it allowed 332.3 yards and a whopping 173 rushing yards per game. Indianapolis also has sacked the opposing quarterback six times in two playoff games, but managed just 25 sacks during the regular season. The Colts have been causing turnovers and have been outstanding on third downs, which clearly wasn't the case before the playoffs. So which defense should we expect to see against the Patriots? The answer lies somewhere in between the juggernaut playoff defense and the inept defense of the regular season. The Patriots' offense can attack this group many different ways; this will be Indy's steepest test yet.
Sanders? In the wild-card round, the Colts used more of their Cover 3 shell as they brought Bob Sanders into the box to eliminate the threat of Larry Johnson. Against the Ravens, the Colts' defense played much more of its traditional Cover 2 to eliminate the big play and force Baltimore to be patient with short, precise throws. The Ravens had success on the ground against this approach, but drifted away from their running game too early, while Steve McNair made too many costly mistakes throwing the football into tight windows. Indianapolis' run defense is not as good as it looked the last two weeks. The Colts will really struggle to stop New England's rushing attack -- especially up the middle -- with just seven defenders in the box, so expect much more of their Cover 3 look than they played last week.
? Even though the Chiefs' game plan was very suspect and the Ravens were too quick to get away from their running game, Indianapolis' run defense does deserve credit for its performance over this playoff run. What has been the difference from the regular season? First of all, its leader and best playmaker in the back seven, Sanders, is back and playing at a very high level. The strong safety in this defense is designed to be a big-time playmaker and Sanders has fit that bill very well since his return. The defense often funnels the ball carrier to Sanders and he cleans up. Also, the team as a whole is tackling much better, getting early penetration, playing more quickly and attacking the line of scrimmage more decisively. But, the Colts' defense is still very light and can be pushed around at the point of attack. We expect New England to feed its two bruising runners an awful lot, show patience with the ground game and eventually wear down the lighter Indianapolis front. New England's running game has also been outstanding on short third and fourth downs, which has been crucial in sustaining drives.
? The tight ends could play a large role this week. Both offenses use multiple-tight end sets a high percentage of the time and have some fine pass-catching options at the position. The middle of the field could be vulnerable to both defenses, and Dallas Clark and Benjamin Watson both have the speed and skill sets to get vertical and make big plays. We expect the Patriots to feature their physical running game, lure Sanders into the box and then try to get Watson behind him in coverage. Without Rodney Harrison, the Patriots will have a more difficult time accounting for Clark, who benefits a great deal from all the attention that Indianapolis' wide receivers attract.
New England is also a great screen passing team, often to the tight ends, and may be able to expose Rob Morris in coverage. A major concern for the Patriots will be how much help their pass-blocking schemes need on the edge to contain Indianapolis' defensive ends, particularly Dwight Freeney, who has been extremely disruptive in the playoffs. Expect to see New England throw a lot of screen passes, possibly to the tight ends, in Freeney's direction to slow his dynamic pass-rush.
? Indianapolis' stretch play may give New England's run defense a hard time, although running it against 3-4 teams usually is quite difficult. The Patriots are exceptional along their three-man defensive line and will dominate the middle of the field, but the lack of speed in their back seven could be exposed with this edge running play. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes form a potent, one-two running game. Addai is patient and executes this play very well, while Rhodes has produced quite well late in games. Addai is fighting chest and shoulder injuries and may need Rhodes to lighten his load. Manning is very dangerous using play-action off the running game if the Colts can establish a ground threat early.
Special Teams
Indianapolis PK Adam Vinatieri was 5-for-5 to provide the Colts' only points last week, making him 34-for-42 in postseason -- the most field goals in history. Vinatieri is invaluable, but the rest of the Colts' special teams do not stack up to New England's. The Patriots have much better returners and coverage units, as the Colts give up far too many big runbacks. Outside of his first four games in the NFL, rookie PK Stephen Gostkowski has been among the best in the business and he is excellent on kickoffs.
Matchups
? Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning vs. New England head coach Bill Belichick
? Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. New England CB Asante Samuel
? Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. New England CB Ellis Hobbs/Chad Scott
? New England TE Benjamin Watson vs. Indianapolis LB Rob Morris and SS Bob Sanders
? New England LT Matt Light vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
Scouts' Edge
It is a familiar playoff rematch and a game that features the two best quarterbacks in the game today. As with any big game, turnovers will be crucial. Both of these star quarterbacks uncharacteristically turned the ball over last week and the Patriots have had fumble troubles all season. For as much football as they have played, both teams are rather healthy and this game will be packed with star power. The Colts' run defense has gotten a lot of publicity as a reborn unit, but we are not completely buying it. Expect a strong day on the ground for New England. We think the Patriots will win a close game to advance to Super Bowl XLI. Maybe Brady will lead a spectacular drive with just seconds on the clock to clinch the victory.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Colts 27
Both teams also use many personnel groupings and utilize more players from their roster than most offenses. They are balanced and can score points on the ground or through the air with the deep ball or a short, precise passing game. When the opposing defense is trying to take a specific aspect of the offense away, these teams are capable of producing by altering their attack. Both quarterbacks are masters of controlling tempo, managing the clock and maximizing the talent around them. Both of these offenses are also exceptional on third downs.
Dillon
Maroney? Tom Brady is 12-1 for his career in the playoffs, simply an astounding accomplishment. Though he was under pressure much of the game, Brady certainly did not play his best in San Diego -- until the end of the game. Brady will, of course, be called upon to make some big throws in this game, but we expect the Patriots to attack the Colts on the ground and lean on Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, especially early. Though New England doesn't have much of a vertical presence on its roster, Brady will still take shots downfield off play-action once the running game has been established. Brady has really favored Jabar Gaffney of late, but he will not be picky with his distribution and will attack any weakness he finds in the Colts' coverage schemes. It should be noted that Brady threw four interceptions when these teams met during the regular season.
? Peyton Manning has not played his best football the past two weeks as evidenced by his 1-5 TD-INT ratio, but he has orchestrated the Colts' offense extremely efficiently and has taken advantage of the extra attention that his fantastic pair of receivers has received. We expect the Patriots to do everything possible on defense to eliminate big plays downfield to the Colts' phenomenal wide receiver duo and force Indianapolis to sustain long drives.
The Patriots play outstanding red zone defense and will tighten up once the Colts get deep in their end. Manning will have to show patience throughout the drive and great precision in the red zone. The Patriots will also have to blitz to generate consistent pressure on Manning, but face the prospect of getting burned for big plays, as the Colts' pass protection has been exceptional all season. Manning played a great game, throwing for 326 yards and two touchdowns, when these teams met in the regular season. Right or wrong, this may end up being the defining game of Manning's career.
? In the playoffs, the Colts' defense has allowed an average of 14 total points, 185 yards and just 63.5 rushing yards per contest. This is obviously in stark contrast to the regular season, when it allowed 332.3 yards and a whopping 173 rushing yards per game. Indianapolis also has sacked the opposing quarterback six times in two playoff games, but managed just 25 sacks during the regular season. The Colts have been causing turnovers and have been outstanding on third downs, which clearly wasn't the case before the playoffs. So which defense should we expect to see against the Patriots? The answer lies somewhere in between the juggernaut playoff defense and the inept defense of the regular season. The Patriots' offense can attack this group many different ways; this will be Indy's steepest test yet.
Sanders? In the wild-card round, the Colts used more of their Cover 3 shell as they brought Bob Sanders into the box to eliminate the threat of Larry Johnson. Against the Ravens, the Colts' defense played much more of its traditional Cover 2 to eliminate the big play and force Baltimore to be patient with short, precise throws. The Ravens had success on the ground against this approach, but drifted away from their running game too early, while Steve McNair made too many costly mistakes throwing the football into tight windows. Indianapolis' run defense is not as good as it looked the last two weeks. The Colts will really struggle to stop New England's rushing attack -- especially up the middle -- with just seven defenders in the box, so expect much more of their Cover 3 look than they played last week.
? Even though the Chiefs' game plan was very suspect and the Ravens were too quick to get away from their running game, Indianapolis' run defense does deserve credit for its performance over this playoff run. What has been the difference from the regular season? First of all, its leader and best playmaker in the back seven, Sanders, is back and playing at a very high level. The strong safety in this defense is designed to be a big-time playmaker and Sanders has fit that bill very well since his return. The defense often funnels the ball carrier to Sanders and he cleans up. Also, the team as a whole is tackling much better, getting early penetration, playing more quickly and attacking the line of scrimmage more decisively. But, the Colts' defense is still very light and can be pushed around at the point of attack. We expect New England to feed its two bruising runners an awful lot, show patience with the ground game and eventually wear down the lighter Indianapolis front. New England's running game has also been outstanding on short third and fourth downs, which has been crucial in sustaining drives.
? The tight ends could play a large role this week. Both offenses use multiple-tight end sets a high percentage of the time and have some fine pass-catching options at the position. The middle of the field could be vulnerable to both defenses, and Dallas Clark and Benjamin Watson both have the speed and skill sets to get vertical and make big plays. We expect the Patriots to feature their physical running game, lure Sanders into the box and then try to get Watson behind him in coverage. Without Rodney Harrison, the Patriots will have a more difficult time accounting for Clark, who benefits a great deal from all the attention that Indianapolis' wide receivers attract.
New England is also a great screen passing team, often to the tight ends, and may be able to expose Rob Morris in coverage. A major concern for the Patriots will be how much help their pass-blocking schemes need on the edge to contain Indianapolis' defensive ends, particularly Dwight Freeney, who has been extremely disruptive in the playoffs. Expect to see New England throw a lot of screen passes, possibly to the tight ends, in Freeney's direction to slow his dynamic pass-rush.
? Indianapolis' stretch play may give New England's run defense a hard time, although running it against 3-4 teams usually is quite difficult. The Patriots are exceptional along their three-man defensive line and will dominate the middle of the field, but the lack of speed in their back seven could be exposed with this edge running play. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes form a potent, one-two running game. Addai is patient and executes this play very well, while Rhodes has produced quite well late in games. Addai is fighting chest and shoulder injuries and may need Rhodes to lighten his load. Manning is very dangerous using play-action off the running game if the Colts can establish a ground threat early.
Special Teams
Indianapolis PK Adam Vinatieri was 5-for-5 to provide the Colts' only points last week, making him 34-for-42 in postseason -- the most field goals in history. Vinatieri is invaluable, but the rest of the Colts' special teams do not stack up to New England's. The Patriots have much better returners and coverage units, as the Colts give up far too many big runbacks. Outside of his first four games in the NFL, rookie PK Stephen Gostkowski has been among the best in the business and he is excellent on kickoffs.
Matchups
? Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning vs. New England head coach Bill Belichick
? Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison vs. New England CB Asante Samuel
? Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. New England CB Ellis Hobbs/Chad Scott
? New England TE Benjamin Watson vs. Indianapolis LB Rob Morris and SS Bob Sanders
? New England LT Matt Light vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
Scouts' Edge
It is a familiar playoff rematch and a game that features the two best quarterbacks in the game today. As with any big game, turnovers will be crucial. Both of these star quarterbacks uncharacteristically turned the ball over last week and the Patriots have had fumble troubles all season. For as much football as they have played, both teams are rather healthy and this game will be packed with star power. The Colts' run defense has gotten a lot of publicity as a reborn unit, but we are not completely buying it. Expect a strong day on the ground for New England. We think the Patriots will win a close game to advance to Super Bowl XLI. Maybe Brady will lead a spectacular drive with just seconds on the clock to clinch the victory.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Colts 27
